Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

esposito · 22-01-2019 1:30pm

YanSno wrote: »

Best window for cold coming from the East / North East would be Around the jan 31st till 5th Feb. Given the fact that the jet stream will look quite vulnerable around that time also If LP tracks further south there could be a temporary Easterly then back to Zonal

Zonal as in polar maritime NW winds zonal ?

Kermit.de.frog · 22-01-2019 1:40pm

Couldn't agree more with Gonzo.

Variations on a theme but the direction of travel is toward a colder pattern by the end of the month. Between now and then it's a slack north Atlantic regime with a couple of colder northerly incursions (occasional wintry showers) and some cold and frosty nights.

Trigger for a real change looks to be between the 28th and 30th of January when the models see increased distortion and amplification of the jet stream (which is refreshing consistency after recent months) so we may see momentum across the Atlantic lost and Low pressure finally taking a dive southeast introducing colder conditions from the north or northeast.

This could be the out-workings of the effects of down-welling through the layers of the atmosphere from the recent stratospheric warming event at the pole registering with the models though it's impossible to say it is or isn't.

So yeah, changes imminent, it's more a case of "how cold?"...could be relatively benign or exceptional.

We shall wait and see.

Dakotabigone · 22-01-2019 1:42pm

Great to see you out of prison Kermit.

Loughc · 22-01-2019 1:45pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Couldn't agree more with Gonzo.

Variations on a theme but the direction of travel is toward a colder pattern by the end of the month. Between now and then it's a slack north Atlantic regime with a couple of colder northerly incursions (occasional wintry showers) and some cold and frosty nights.

Trigger for a real change looks to be between the 28th and 30th of January when the models see increased distortion and amplification of the jet stream (which is refreshing consistency after recent months) so we may see momentum across the Atlantic lost and Low pressure finally taking a dive southeast introducing colder conditions from the north or northeast.

So yeah, changes imminent, it's more a case of "how cold?"...could be relatively benign or exceptional.

We shall wait and see.

YanSno · 22-01-2019 2:05pm

esposito wrote: »

Zonal as in polar maritime NW winds zonal ?

More than likely W and NW zonal winds. Mild and cold in the same week

munsterlegend · 22-01-2019 2:08pm

Dakotabigone wrote: »

Great to see you out of prison Kermit.

Here’s hoping to waking up to a Kermit wintry warning thread next week!!

highdef · 22-01-2019 2:36pm

Dakotabigone wrote: »

Great to see you out of prison Kermit.

Winter may now commence. All the let downs recently were simply caused by Kermit's absence here. We can't have wintry conditions without his input on Boards. Snow will happen in the next week or two

SleetAndSnow · 22-01-2019 2:40pm

Kermit's back! Well I just repurchased my rollercoaster ticket:p

Loughc · 22-01-2019 2:41pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Kermit's back! Well I just repurchased my rollercoaster ticket:p

Grab one for me!

torres9kop · 22-01-2019 4:15pm

Ahh Kermits a boll*****. Only kidding. Great to see him back. Snow on the way for sure

circadian · 22-01-2019 4:39pm

Coming down thick and heavy in Derry.

Loughc · 22-01-2019 4:40pm

circadian wrote: »

Coming down thick and heavy in Derry.

And what's the weather like? :pac:

SleetAndSnow · 22-01-2019 4:42pm

Car reading 7 degrees in cork city, it feels colder though. Showery all day. Meh

Captain Snow · 22-01-2019 4:42pm

circadian wrote: »

Coming down thick and heavy in Derry.

Any pictures...

Rebelbrowser · 22-01-2019 4:45pm

Dakotabigone wrote: »

Great to see you out of prison Kermit.

In the same way that death was a great career move by Elvis, I think Kermit getting banned for the month of January (of all months) has raised his stock to an all time high. If I were you Kermit I wouldn't do anything to damage your stock - like actually forecasting anything for example! Like Marilyn Monroe, I'm not sure you can now compete with Kermit the legend...:pac:

Artane2002 · 22-01-2019 4:49pm

Breathtaking evening in Dublin 5. Nice and chilly too. Not often have I said positive things about this winter so far.

Gonzo · 22-01-2019 4:52pm

The next potential cold spell, is also being hinted at with the temperature anomaly from the 28th of January to the 3rd of February. So far the temperature anomaly haven't really being accurate over the past few weeks as the easterly failed to get going.

Ireland, Scotland and parts of Scandinavia look particularly cold with a 3-6C lower than average temperature.

meTz20190121_0000+33600.png

The precipitation anomaly for the same period shows dryer than average conditions where it is also coldest. This could suggest closer to high pressure with a lack of overall precipitation. Notice the wetter than average conditions along North Sea coasts and Irish Sea coasts.

meRz20190121_0000+33600.png

sryanbruen · 22-01-2019 4:53pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Breathtaking evening in Dublin 5. Nice and chilly too. Not often have I said positive things about this winter so far.

You took the words right out of my mouth!

Oscar Bravo · 22-01-2019 4:58pm

Good few lightning strikes south of Derry .

Gonzo · 22-01-2019 5:03pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Good few lightning strikes south of Derry .

looks to be a very decent snow streamer all the way from Derry to Belfast, lucky them.

circadian · 22-01-2019 5:11pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

Any pictures...

Here ye go

SleetAndSnow · 22-01-2019 5:13pm

Im living in the wrong county.. definitely.. maybe wrong country

jArgHA · 22-01-2019 5:28pm

Lads / ladies what site do ye use again for live preciptation radar which shows the pink colouring for possible snow? I remember using one all the time last Feb/March but can't recall which site it was..

gabeeg · 22-01-2019 5:34pm

jArgHA wrote: »

Lads / ladies what site do ye use again for live preciptation radar which shows the pink colouring for possible snow? I remember using one all the time last Feb/March but can't recall which site it was..

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Turn the "weather type" on

Kermit.de.frog · 22-01-2019 6:50pm

UK Met Office and GFS out so far this evening and setting things up nicely. The important timeframe is going to be between the 28th and 31st of January.

UKMO

UW144-21.GIF?22-18

GFS a little delayed but same overall trend.

GFS

gfseu-0-168.png?12

That low pressure just east of Greenland is a so called trigger low for cold weather as it moves southeast because it drags in the deeper cold behind it.

Even at that stage that's a cold northwesterly wind that there would be a real bite to.

We can see decent cross model alignment already so confidence pretty high.

KingJeremy · 22-01-2019 6:51pm

gabeeg wrote: »

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Turn the "weather type" on

Is this info live and accurate or is it a prediction?

gabeeg · 22-01-2019 7:08pm

KingJeremy wrote: »

Is this info live and accurate or is it a prediction?

Live. It uses radar.

It's pretty accurate, but not perfect

United road · 22-01-2019 7:09pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK Met Office and GFS out so far this evening and setting things up nicely. The important timeframe is going to be between the 28th and 31st of January.

UKMO

GFS a little delayed but same overall trend.

GFS

That low pressure just east of Greenland is a so called trigger low for cold weather as it moves southeast because it drags in the deeper cold behind it.

Even at that stage that's a cold northwesterly wind that there would be a real bite to.

We can see decent cross model alignment already so confidence pretty high.

Oh my - how you have been missed!!

gerrybhoy · 22-01-2019 7:11pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK Met Office and GFS out so far this evening and setting things up nicely. The important timeframe is going to be between the 28th and 31st of January.

UKMO

GFS a little delayed but same overall trend.

GFS

That low pressure just east of Greenland is a so called trigger low for cold weather as it moves southeast because it drags in the deeper cold behind it.

Even at that stage that's a cold northwesterly wind that there would be a real bite to.

We can see decent cross model alignment already so confidence pretty high.

I love you x

Oneiric 3 · 22-01-2019 7:30pm

Posted on TWO yesterday. Says it all about the UK Met Long Range forecasts his Winter...

"And the "Stopped Clock Award" for 2019 goes to.....

December 14: Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.

December 18: Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds.

December 21: Then, further into January, most probably becoming colder and drier than normal, with an increased likelihood of easterly winds.

December 24: By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period.

December 31: By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 3: Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 7: As the rest of the month progresses and into early February there is an increased likelihood of colder weather to become established generally, which will bring an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 9: During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold conditions being established generally across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frost, especially in the north.

January 13: For the end of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather being established across all of the UK, with temperatures continuing a downward trend to become cold or very cold.

January 21: As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds.

"You've got to give them credit for persistence. However many times the weather proves them wrong they are not giving up."

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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