Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Danno

YanSno wrote: »

...Artic ice surface being 4th lowest since 1979 we will tend to keep high pressure around the north atlantic...

It's the sixth lowest and above the 2010s averages, in fact it hasn't been a bad arctic refreeze season so far overall.

YanSno

Danno wrote: »

It's the sixth lowest and above the 2010s averages, in fact it hasn't been a bad arctic refreeze season so far overall.

The only data i have is summary for the 7th of January and it was 5th lowest, 2 weeks before that it was third lowest. It's has started to recover since the start of the year. HP will sit somewhere along the south west atlantic absorbing all that energy and also we will play catch up with rainfall

SteHam

So your usual run of the mill Irish winter

NMB

Interesting blog from Nick on netweather

“Looking further ahead, I’ve previously discussed the potential impacts of the wind reversal to easterlies working down through the stratosphere, following the Sudden Stratospheric Warming to start the month, and impacting the troposphere circulations at high latitudes, i.e. increased high latitude blocking. Well these easterlies have yet to do so, but there is an indication this may occur to end this month, so we could see a pattern change featuring high latitude blocking in February, increasing risk of much colder northerly or easterly flows.”

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9368-no-beast-from-the-east-coming-for-now---but-often-cold-with-snow-for-some

fred funk }{

NMB wrote: »

Interesting blog from Nick on netweather

“Looking further ahead, I’ve previously discussed the potential impacts of the wind reversal to easterlies working down through the stratosphere, following the Sudden Stratospheric Warming to start the month, and impacting the troposphere circulations at high latitudes, i.e. increased high latitude blocking. Well these easterlies have yet to do so, but there is an indication this may occur to end this month, so we could see a pattern change featuring high latitude blocking in February, increasing risk of much colder northerly or easterly flows.”

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9368-no-beast-from-the-east-coming-for-now---but-often-cold-with-snow-for-some

Just always seems to be a couple of weeks away. Hopefully he's correct this time.

Gonzo

I reckon Northern Ireland, Donegal, Mayo, Sligo and perhaps Galway, Cavan and Monaghan might see their fair share of sleet and snow showers from next Sunday onward. Lots of cold north-westerlies over the next 2 weeks by the look of things.

Snowbiee21

Gonzo wrote: »

I reckon Northern Ireland, Donegal, Mayo, Sligo and perhaps Galway, Cavan and Monaghan might see their fair share of sleet and snow showers from next Sunday onward. Lots of cold north-westerlies over the next 2 weeks by the look of things.

And dublin ehemmm

sicknotexi

Anyone getting any snow showers?

JCX BXC

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

And dublin ehemmm

Dublin never particularly does well from north-westerlies. Perhaps that's why they're lambasted to the extent they are here.

JCX BXC

sicknotexi wrote: »

Anyone getting any snow showers?

Check the event thread.

nacho libre

The ecm 46 update is still going for a blocked pattern to develop in early February. Some GFS and ECM ensembles are promising too

I might buy another ticket...:o, if the models start showing something favourable in the next couple of days

Artane2002

nacho libre wrote: »

The ecm 46 update is still going for a blocked pattern to develop in early February. Some GFS and ECM ensembles are promising too

I might buy another ticket...:o, if the models start showing something favourable in the next couple of days

Tbh I think the signal has been weakened. I've lost my patience with this winter. If it keeps showing blocking then surely it has to happen at some point? If we get nothing then I'm never trusting background signals no matter how good they are. If we do get something then I'll learn to be more patient!

KingJeremy

KingJeremy wrote: »

You have a point. Mother Nature will bring what she wants when she wants. Time will tell...but I’m still going to bed Monday night with a little bit of excitement for what the morning may bring

Not a frikken flake in sight :mad::(

Darwin

Both the GFS and FV3 12z showing quite a severe northerly/north easterly towards the end of the month, but I'll believe it when I see it at t+48!

Gaoth Laidir

KingJeremy wrote: »

Not a frikken flake in sight :mad::(

Such is a northwesterly:rolleyes: Cheap Atlantic muck.

Kamili

nacho libre wrote: »

The ecm 46 update is still going for a blocked pattern to develop in early February. Some GFS and ECM ensembles are promising too

I might buy another ticket...:o, if the models start showing something favourable in the next couple of days

I'll sell ya mine cos I am out on this winter :P

in fact you can have it for free

gozunda

KingJeremy wrote: »

Not a frikken flake in sight :mad::(

A light scattering here last night, gone now ...

Billcarson

gozunda wrote: »

KingJeremy wrote: »

Not a frikken flake in sight :mad::(

A light scattering here last night, gone now ...

Good ol polar maritime air. You just can't beat it. Lol

km79

The best way to describe the last 2 days in east Galway is RANK

Thankfully these days have been the exception rather than the rule over the past 3 months .
Made the dark evenings pass faster .

Fairly big sleet now . Or wet snow.
I don’t know what it is but the flakes are big but melting as they hit the ground

frash

I wonder how graces7 is getting on

Snow Garden

It's fantastic to finally start getting snow reports!!

Bring it on!

Kamili

frash wrote: »

I wonder how graces7 is getting on

hopefully tucked up warm and dry..

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

The ecm 46 update is still going for a blocked pattern to develop in early February. Some GFS and ECM ensembles are promising too

I might buy another ticket...:o, if the models start showing something favourable in the next couple of days

Latest GFS is yet another downgrade, it keeps the relatively mild Atlantic going to 1st of February with Ireland narrowly missing out on colder conditions from the north and north-west which the UK may get from the 26th of January. The Atlantic just keeps on churning those lows between Canada and Ireland for the next 1 to 2 weeks at least. Very feeble signs of a north-easterly by 2nd of February, but it doesn't look like it would last long with high pressures stacked to our west and still an overall continuation of movement from west to east.

Loughc

Snow Garden wrote: »

It's fantastic to finally start getting snow reports!!

Bring it on!

What snow reports?

pad199207

Gonzo wrote: »

Latest GFS is yet another downgrade, it keeps the relatively mild Atlantic going to 1st of February with Ireland narrowly missing out on colder conditions from the north and north-west which the UK may get from the 26th of January. The Atlantic just keeps on churning those lows between Canada and Ireland for the next 1 to 2 weeks at least. Very feeble signs of a north-easterly by 2nd of February, but it doesn't look like it would last long with high pressures stacked to our west and still an overall continuation of movement from west to east.

YanSno prediction of a zonal February could come to fruition

pistolpetes11

Gonzo wrote: »

Latest GFS is yet another downgrade, it keeps the relatively mild Atlantic going to 1st of February with Ireland narrowly missing out on colder conditions from the north and north-west which the UK may get from the 26th of January. The Atlantic just keeps on churning those lows between Canada and Ireland for the next 1 to 2 weeks at least. Very feeble signs of a north-easterly by 2nd of February, but it doesn't look like it would last long with high pressures stacked to our west and still an overall continuation of movement from west to east.

I thought the latest output looked quite good , 10 days away mainly but some nice looking charts hoping up

Kamili

Gonzo wrote: »

Latest GFS is yet another downgrade, it keeps the relatively mild Atlantic going to 1st of February with Ireland narrowly missing out on colder conditions from the north and north-west which the UK may get from the 26th of January. The Atlantic just keeps on churning those lows between Canada and Ireland for the next 1 to 2 weeks at least. Very feeble signs of a north-easterly by 2nd of February, but it doesn't look like it would last long with high pressures stacked to our west and still an overall continuation of movement from west to east.

so when is spring?

Gonzo

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I thought the latest output looked quite good , 10 days away mainly but some nice looking charts hoping up

I hadn't seen all of the run as it was still updating when I looked at it. There is certainly hope between 31st of January and February 4th. 10 days away is a long time but hopefully the charts are on to something this time and will stick to it and upgrade more closer to the time!. At this stage I would gladly take even a 3 day event.

Gonzo

and here are the hints at the next possible cold spell. Caution very much advised when looking at these charts, we all know how the recent easterly turned out. However it is a sliver of hope.

GFS for Friday 1st February.


ECM for the same day.


GEM same

YanSno

Best window for cold coming from the East / North East would be Around the jan 31st till 5th Feb. Given the fact that the jet stream will look quite vulnerable around that time also If LP tracks further south there could be a temporary Easterly then back to Zonal