Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

squarecircles

Loughc wrote: »

Looks like the dream is over!

at least it puts us out of our misery,only positive i can think of,no more fatigue waiting for charts to roll out
we can all move on with our lives now.

iv been waiting patiently since new years eve in anticipation.

i feel now that iv had a bucket of cold water thrown in my face.
i feel so cheated.

sryanbruen

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

All the EC monthly forecasts and everything else that was showing blocking this winter would make it very disappointing for us not to get a real blast of wintry weather .

All them charts in future should probably be in the FI thread as they would appear to be complete fantasy at this stage .

To be fair to them, most seasonal models highlighted the blocking for February/March timing since November although I was somewhat skeptical to the extent they'd shown given the Atlantic SST profile.

I typically post seasonal models in here generally than the FI charts thread as they're seasonal rather than short to medium term range. Seasonal ones should also be taken just for fun the vast majority of the time - another reason why I post them in here as this thread is typically used for such or banter and the FI charts thread being more serious.

Rebelbrowser

JCX BXC wrote: »

This thread is like a roundabout. It really is.

To be honest it seems more like a bar conversation where nobody really listens to eachother but talks anyway.

What did you call me? Do you want to take this outside?

Billcarson

Ah well. Deep down in our hearts we all know what's coming in March don't we? Lol. Another March 2013.

Rebelbrowser

I wouldn't be the guy you would expect to be calling winter over in late Jan (and after 2018 we should all realise that would be madness) but the disappearance of the cold pool to our NE on the models past next weekend is not a good sign. You do think we have probably missed the boat on this SSW.

flazio

Yellow warning for the country, text mentions Connacht and Ulster. So people in South Munster will be wondering why they've been put on warning.

Buffalobill29

I have to say it's bad form that the majority of Ireland appears like it won't get any snow this winter considering how far north we are(I know, the jet stream and all that) but come on parts of lowland west Asia and southern Europe getting snow is a step too far especially considering it's snowing on the bloody beaches in Greece. I mean the island we live on must really be an anomaly in terms of world climate. Either way, here's hope that we'll get an actual spring this year after February is over.

Gonzo

I have to admit, my confidence is completely blown on the rest of this winter. After so much potential, a very strong SSW and all the long range models consistently promising blocking and colder temperatures, the only thing that this winter has delivered on so far is bitter. A bitter disappointment.

These past 4 days have really shattered the confidence with alot of people, not just us here but people beyond in the UK too.

I still think we will see some snow, it could end up getting pushed further and further out till eventually some flakes fall end of February or sometime in March. There is still hints of cold showing from next weekend, but it looks a very tame affair compared to all the potential we were looking forward to.

Instead of continuing to be downbeat about the whole thing, it's probably best we move on and look forward to the rest of 2019, We could be in for some snow surprises yet before the season is finished.

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

I have to admit, my confidence is completely blown on the rest of this winter. After so much potential, a very strong SSW and all the long range models consistently promising blocking and colder temperatures, the only thing that this winter has delivered on so far is bitter. A bitter disappointment.

These past 4 days have really shattered the confidence with alot of people, not just us here but people beyond in the UK too.

I still think we will see some snow, it could end up getting pushed further and further out till eventually some flakes fall end of February or sometime in March. There is still hints of cold showing from next weekend, but it looks a very tame affair compared to all the potential we were looking forward to.

Instead of continuing to be downbeat about the whole thing, it's probably best we move on and look forward to the rest of 2019, We could be in for some snow surprises yet before the season is finished.

I think a lot of us got carried away with this SSW (lots of tweets from these so called experts in the US &Canada) hyping up the SSW even for Europe.

I for one will not be getting excited when there’s future talk about SSW’s. Lesson learnt.

mrsnrub2.0

Summer 2019 predictions anyone?!

Loughc

esposito wrote: »

Lesson learnt.

Lesson learnt is right... never believe in anything ever again

Gonzo

esposito wrote: »

I think a lot of us got carried away with this SSW (lots of tweets from these so called experts in the US &Canada) hyping up the SSW even for Europe.

I for one will not be getting excited when there’s future talk about SSW’s. Lesson learnt.

I think the positive effects from the SSW event this year would have worked only for there was too many other factors fighting against it. The Postitive NAO, cold Sea surface temperatures in the north Atlantic and a rapid transition into a westerly QBO just before Winter began, made this a very difficult battle and we all know the result of this battle by now. We just haven't been able to catch a break this winter.

From here on the only way is up, any snow or frost we get for the rest of the season is a bonus because so far we have nothing to show for winter apart from 2 nights of grass frost.

Villain

Poor auld Winter 2018/19 is having its funeral organised here before it even enters the last month.

While I wouldn't be getting excited about seeing snow in the short term I certainly wouldn't be writing off winter yet, heck even the start of spring :P

Gonzo

Villain wrote: »

Poor auld Winter 2018/19 is having its funeral organised here before it even enters the last month.

While I wouldn't be getting excited about seeing snow in the short term I certainly wouldn't be writing off winter yet, heck even the start of spring :P

Not writing off winter, but I think the potential for something major has diminished alot. Sure we will probably get some snow over the next few weeks. Almost certain that March will deliver something too, but there are many who don't really want to see snow or bitterly cold temperatures in March. We could even see something in April but by then most of us want temperatures of 15C with a few warmer days appearing.

barney 20v

Loughc wrote: »

Lesson learnt is right... never believe in anything ever again

ehmmmm isn't the statistic something like 70% for any SSW event to have any effect on the weather regarding cold weather ... this just looks like we've landed in the other 30% .

No big deal!

sryanbruen

esposito wrote: »

I think a lot of us got carried away with this SSW (lots of tweets from these so called experts in the US &Canada) hyping up the SSW even for Europe.

I for one will not be getting excited when there’s future talk about SSW’s. Lesson learnt.

I find monitoring the stratosphere fun and also find such dynamic events interesting. That's why I post about them, not because of their impacts on the troposphere. This has been a nSSW - such a SSW event has not occurred since February 2008 so it was due sometime.

PokeHerKing

sryanbruen wrote: »

I find monitoring the stratosphere fun and also find such dynamic events interesting. That's why I post about them, not because of their impacts on the troposphere. This has been a nSSW - such a SSW event has not occurred since February 2008 so it was due.

And we all know what happened the following winter!!:pac:

Europe has had record snow this year so the experts were right. Just not in the case of our damp rock!

MJohnston

flazio wrote: »

Yellow warning for the country, text mentions Connacht and Ulster. So people in South Munster will be wondering why they've been put on warning.

Not quite - the yellow is for snow-ice. Text mentions it is because ice or slippery conditions are expected on untreated surfaces. With the temperatures expected overnight, this is a reasonable precaution.

The bit about Connacht and Ulster is only in reference to possible sleet/snow showers, and not what the entirety of the alert is about.

esposito

sryanbruen wrote: »

I find monitoring the stratosphere fun and also find such dynamic events interesting. That's why I post about them, not because of their impacts on the troposphere. This has been a nSSW - such a SSW event has not occurred since February 2008 so it was due.

I wasn’t having a go at you Sryan, I very much enjoy your knowledgeable posts and thoughts on this forum.

I just think certain people in the US tweeting about SSW were saying how cold Western Europe would get almost saying it was a certainty that it would happen!

Snow Garden

Bitterly cold and wet in Galway. I would imagine there will be plenty of snow on high ground this week.

m17

Galway 21/01/19 14.03 temperature 6°C

Xenji

Some torrential rain in Castlebar currently, shame it is not colder.

blanch152

esposito wrote: »

I wasn’t having a go at you Sryan, I very much enjoy your knowledgeable posts and thoughts on this forum.

I just think certain people in the US tweeting about SSW were saying how cold Western Europe would get almost saying it was a certainty that it would happen!

Isn't Austria in Western Europer?

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jan/16/alps-on-avalanche-alert-after-record-breaking-snowfall

Artane2002

blanch152 wrote: »

Isn't Austria in Western Europer?

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jan/16/alps-on-avalanche-alert-after-record-breaking-snowfall

It's generally considered to be in Central Europe but some people do consider it to be in Western Europe.

Gonzo

blanch152 wrote: »

Isn't Austria in Western Europer?

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jan/16/alps-on-avalanche-alert-after-record-breaking-snowfall

Austria is generally seen as part of central Europe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Europe

SleetAndSnow

Cold enough in cork city now. Just finished school. Sleeting/ very cold rail at the moment (more so cold rain I'd say with some sleet mixed in)

Gonzo

mucky, dark, cold, wet day here.

Looks to be plenty of rain on the way for the next few hours.

lapua20grain

Peeing down in Kinsealy at the moment temp 5c

Snowbiee21

Kermit Kermit are you here?

Loughc

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Kermit Kermit are you here?

No snow... no show...

He's like our Phil the groundhog.