Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

sryanbruen

The outlook is now looking changeable with rather cool conditions dominating bar a milder blip later this week. The source is likely to be polar maritime air for the foreseeable future, reminded me of last year. The Atlantic looks similar to then although Pacific isn't similar at all.

https://twitter.com/SnowbieWx/status/1087056106961162240

Monkeynut

This forum is like a drug.
You wake up in the morning and its the first thing you look for.
Then during the day, you just want another hit. Multiple hits. You may just stay hitting it(F5) sometimes.
Then you can't go to bed without another hit to put you to sleep.

force eleven

Meh ECM. Nice chart is at T240, as always. Haven't seen a flake of snow. People tell of a mythical fall a few nights ago, briefly, but I was tucked up in bed. Some winter's you get lucky, most you don't, this one will be the latter.

Cork Boy 53

Gonzo wrote: »

I've a feeling you will get your wish. This could also easily happen in March. I have a feeling we won't be having many spring like days in March. So far we've only had 1 grass frost this Winter and all the signs are towards colder than average conditions for the foreseeable future. A delayed Spring could become a reality this year.

I know most people including myself want snow within the next 4 weeks, but there is still potential for lying snow over the next 8 to 9 weeks. On rare occasions you can still get a dumping in April.

That can **** right off. I had enough of the cold March and most of April last year. No repeat this time around please.

sryanbruen

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

I had enough of the cold March and most of April last year. No repeat this time around please.

The unfortunate truth is that March is usually a more wintry month than November or December. I do share the same opinion though that I would like to see some nice Spring sunshine in March and April. I have the thought that we'll get a delayed Spring too again, hope not.

JCX BXC

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

That can **** right off. I had enough of the cold March and most of April last year. No repeat this time around please.

I am definitely not of the same opinion. Record breaking snowfall followed only 3 months later by record breaking heat, I'll take that again!

Monkeynut

sryanbruen wrote: »

I do share the same opinion though that I would like to see some nice Spring sunshine in March and April.

Its nice watching all the parents saying when is this parade over, its flipping freezing. Then all the rosie faces on the kids not caring one bit.

As soon as the parade is over they go to the pub for heat (i think that's all).

Cork Boy 53

sryanbruen wrote: »

The unfortunate truth is that March is usually a more wintry month than November or December. I do share the same opinion though that I would like to see some nice Spring sunshine in March and April. I have the thought that we'll get a delayed Spring too again, hope not.

You obviously have the stats but, off the top of my head, Mar 1999 and Mar 2012 certainly were not wintry weather months or at least not the entire duration of those months. I remember being outdoors in a t-shirt with a cloudless blue sky on St Patrick`s Day 1999. Maybe the exception to the rule though.

highdef

JCX BXC wrote: »

I am definitely not of the same opinion. Record breaking snowfall followed only 3 months later by record breaking heat, I'll take that again!

Totally agree, if summer is guaranteed to be excellent, I have no issues with winter dragging on into spring. The quicker the transition from cold and yuck to bright/sunny and warm, the better.....for me anyway (and JCX BXC)

Monkeynut

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

You obviously have the stats but, off the top of my head, Mar 1999 and Mar 2012 certainly were not wintry weather months or at least not the entire duration of those months. I remember being outdoors in a t-shirt with a cloudless blue sky on St Patrick`s Day 1999. Maybe the exception to the rule though.

I remember too being out in a t-shirt around 2012.
I have wished for another 2012 17th March since.

Billcarson

Monkeynut wrote: »

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

You obviously have the stats but, off the top of my head, Mar 1999 and Mar 2012 certainly were not wintry weather months or at least not the entire duration of those months. I remember being outdoors in a t-shirt with a cloudless blue sky on St Patrick`s Day 1999. Maybe the exception to the rule though.

I remember too being out in a t-shirt around 2012.
I have wished for another 2012 17th March since.

The summer that followed was pure awful and I'm not even that much of a summer fan. Cutting the grass in July in wheelies says all. March was our summer that year lol.

Billcarson

Another good spring month april 2007. Followed by a horrible summer.
The cold marches of 2006,13 and 18 were ironically followed by good summer's if warmth is your thing.

SleetAndSnow

Agree with JCX and highdef. Transition from cold and snowy/wet to hot and blue skies I'd take any day over spring.

I too believe it will be a cold Spring. June July and August were dry and we saw all that rain come back in November December abouts, I feel the cold we have missed this January will hit us sometime in march as it seems to be delayed and mother nature generally has a way of equaling out the seasons.

Although I'm doing my leaving cert this year so I fully expect the temperature record for summer to be beaten because of that

pad199207

A repeat of 2018 as a whole would be nice. Brilliant Snow, Incredible Thunderstorms and a Great Summer.

SleetAndSnow

5 minutes until the GFS pub run madness . Will this rollercoaster be going up or down?

Needless this is the longest rollercoaster ride of my life. Well worth the value for money

john mayo 10

Did anyone just watch the weather forecast after the news.

Artane2002

If this winter doesn't deliver then spring might become my favourite season... you can get snow like in March 2018, 2016, 2015 and 2013 or beautiful weather like May 2018, 2017, 2016, 2012 and March 2012... sometimes both too like 2018 and 2016! Reason is because we seem to be relying on March for snow now.

Snow Garden

There is frost already on the grass here in Galway. I am really hopeful for some deep cold and snow this week and beyond.

Mam of 4

Car is frozen over here for the last hour , Laois .

SleetAndSnow

Frost only now starting to build on cars here in Cork city that have been idle for about 2 hours.

Marengo

Away from the charts today. Phone crashing on Meteociel. How is she looking?!

TECH85

john mayo 10 wrote: »

Did anyone just watch the weather forecast after the news.

Yep, milder second half the week , then turning colder again next weekend. Just like a few hear seem to think may happen.
Maybe that cold pool will make a bust westwards ..
Still game on !!

SleetAndSnow

Marengo wrote: »

Away from the charts today. Phone crashing on Meteociel. How is she looking?!

everything that 'tiny' bit further west at 60hrs on gfs 18z, enough to take the cork/kerry peninsulas from the green to the blue at 850hpa :P So basically the same as earlier with no differences.

sryanbruen

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

You obviously have the stats but, off the top of my head, Mar 1999 and Mar 2012 certainly were not wintry weather months or at least not the entire duration of those months. I remember being outdoors in a t-shirt with a cloudless blue sky on St Patrick`s Day 1999. Maybe the exception to the rule though.

They were pretty much exceptions. 20c in March like 2012 in Ireland is very rare. The only two instances I know of are 1965 and 2012, 1968 could have been another but not sure.

Why March tends to be more wintry is due to the weaker Polar Vortex (sometimes already easterly in March if the final warming comes early) and thus making easterlies more likely.

The Snowfall in Ireland doc by Met Éireann gives the following table which shows the mean number of days with snow at selected Irish stations during the recorded periods. As you can see, March is a wintrier month on average in terms of days with snow for every station compared to December bar Malin Head, with varying degrees of difference in average for each station.

I've certainly seen more wintry Marches in my research than Decembers.



I think the poor Spring, good Summer and the opposite in recent years is a coincidence. Spring 1986 was very cold for the most part (particularly April which was the coldest since 1917 if I remember correctly) and was followed by a soggy, cold Summer including the arrival of hurricane Charley in August and one of the dullest Julys on record. Spring 1987 had quite a wintry March with the rest of the season mixed and the Summer was very dull. Just two examples from the 80s. 1995 is a bit of a funny one as March was wintry but April was very dry and relatively warm with a warm start to May but became cool and wet thereafter.

1983 was another cold Spring that was followed by a hot Summer.

For Cork Airport in terms of mean temperatures, there's actually quite a mix between the Marches and December. For example, here's the top 6 warmest months out of the two combined at the station back to 1964.

1. Mar 1998 - 8.5
2. Dec 1988 - 8.4
3. Mar 2012 - 8.3
4. Dec 2015 - 8.3
5. Mar 1997 - 8.2
6. Dec 1974 - 8.1

March has higher temperature extremes than December but the averages in terms of wintry weather shown above show that March is rather more favoured for snow.

The 2010s has seen a fair share of mixed Marches rather than anything specific whether it was cold {2010, 2013, 2018}, average {2015, 2016}, mild/warm {2011, 2012, 2014, 2017}.

Monkeynut

Marengo wrote: »

Away from the charts today. Phone crashing on Meteociel. How is she looking?!

Maybe install Firefox browser it may help with viewing from the phone.

SleetAndSnow

Id ignore the 18z tonight, apperantly its missing a ton of data for some reason (just saw it on netweather). 91% loss of ballon data o.O

Snowbiee21

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Id ignore the 18z tonight, apperantly its missing a ton of data for some reason (just saw it on netweather). 91% loss of ballon data o.O

Just to be curious what is it showing

SleetAndSnow

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Just to be curious what is it showing

According to the folks on netweather:

“It shows the amount of data gone into the initial conditions. More data in usually means a better idea of atmosphere at starting condition.”

YanSno

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Id ignore the 18z tonight, apperantly its missing a ton of data for some reason (just saw it on netweather). 91% loss of ballon data o.O

Balloons aren’t launched around the 18Z forecast, so it’s using old upper air data. it's nothing new

Gaoth Laidir

YanSno wrote: »

Balloons aren’t launched around the 18Z forecast, so it’s using old upper air data. it's nothing new

A few stations (especially in the UK) send up 18Z balloons (see "Sondages obs altitude" in meteociel) but even 12Z data will be fed into the 18Z analysis as there is a 9-hour data acquisition window in 4DVAR. At least it's 9 hours for the ECM, not sure how long for the GFS.