US Presidential Election 2020

Tell me how

Water John wrote: »

The main question at this point is, can the Dems seal the deal? Get the numbers they have, to vote.

Was chatting to a couple in their 70's here who said that they have never seen such engagement in political discussion as is going on right now.

They expect to see turn out in the region of 70% which would be the highest in 100 years.
I don't think we'll see that given Covid and everything but even 60% would be up 5 points than 2016 and in itself would be higher than any election since the 60's.

Realt Dearg Sec

StringerBell wrote: »

I've decided Biden is gonna win Texas today.

Democrats tend to outperform the polls in Texas and that's what I've decided for the day. Cause if he wins Texas it doesn't really matter about Florida or Pennsylvania or wherever. JC is gonna lose his senate seat in texas too for the same reasons. Happy thoughts today.

I hope you're right, but speaking as someone who has lived in Texas for the last four years, I'm just not going to believe in a blue Texas until the day I see one, and this seems one election cycle too early. Abbott's pretty transparent voter suppression with the drop off centers in Harris and Dallas etc is the main reason, but I'm thinking also of the Senate race two years ago, where polls occasionally gave Beto the win or at least a toss up, and in the end he fell short. That was against probably the most universally disliked senator in America. I knew no Republicans who liked him but they were just unwilling to try a dem when push came to shove. I think it goes the same in the end here. Would love to see Cornyn lose, and the general sensation of rats abandoning the ship we've seen lately with the likes of McSally in Arizona refusing to echo support for Trump in a debate indicates they realise they've backed a losing horse here, but I think in the end Texas will stand pat. Expect Cruz to lose in 2024 though, in fact his recent actions undercutting other Republicans indicate he can see that coming too.

StringerBell

Oh I agree in realistic terms it's one cycle early, but positivity only from me today on it

everlast75

Surely his state of mind is now (more than ever) in question?

Do his supporters think he is... okay?

Realt Dearg Sec

everlast75 wrote: »

Surely his state of mind is now (more than ever) in question?

Do his supporters think he is... okay?

I mean...have you met his supporters?

VinLieger

everlast75 wrote: »

Surely his state of mind is now (more than ever) in question?

Do his supporters think he is... okay?

Of course they do hes owning the libs by not letting the dumbocrats pass their stimulus bill that the entire country sorely needs......

Quin_Dub

everlast75 wrote: »

Surely his state of mind is now (more than ever) in question?

Do his supporters think he is... okay?

Apparently his family don't think he's ok

Donald Trump, Jr. is reportedly concerned that his father is “acting crazy” since his coronavirus diagnosis and believes the commander-in-chief may need an intervention. Vanity Fair is reporting that Trump, Jr. was concerned after seeing his father riding around Walter Reed National Military Medical Center doing what might be described as a “victory lap” on Sunday night.

Quin_Dub

The latest Rasmussen reports are out.

Their weekly Election Poll now has Biden at +12 - 52% to 40%.

Trump led by +1 two weeks ago.

Their daily "Presidential Approval" Poll now has Trump at 54% disapproval with 49% "Strongly disapproving".

Again , two weeks ago Trump was at 52% approval.

The gap between Strongly Approve and Strongly Disapprove has gone from +4 on September 18th to -15 today.

A 19 point negative swing in "Strong" opinion in about 3 weeks.

That's just huge , especially from Rasmussen who traditionally would be a few points more positive towards Trump and the GOP than the rest of the pollsters.

It gives real credence to the +12 and +16 polls from CNN and IPSOS in recent days.

Manic Moran

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

I hope you're right, but speaking as someone who has lived in Texas for the last four years, I'm just not going to believe in a blue Texas until the day I see one, and this seems one election cycle too early. Abbott's pretty transparent voter suppression with the drop off centers in Harris and Dallas etc is the main reason, but I'm thinking also of the Senate race two years ago, where polls occasionally gave Beto the win or at least a toss up, and in the end he fell short. That was against probably the most universally disliked senator in America. I knew no Republicans who liked him but they were just unwilling to try a dem when push came to shove. I think it goes the same in the end here. Would love to see Cornyn lose, and the general sensation of rats abandoning the ship we've seen lately with the likes of McSally in Arizona refusing to echo support for Trump in a debate indicates they realise they've backed a losing horse here, but I think in the end Texas will stand pat. Expect Cruz to lose in 2024 though, in fact his recent actions undercutting other Republicans indicate he can see that coming too.

I'll be surprised if Texas turns blue even in the cycle after next. That's not to say that they won't vote Biden (I think it unlikely, but I won't be massively surprised if it happens). Not liking Trump does not necessarily correlate with an approval of Democrats around here, I think the overall 'leanings' of Texas will be better represented by their voting patterns on Congressmen and state legislators than by President on this particular issue. (The same can probably be said for a few traditionally non-blue States). Conryn is about 8 ahead in the polls over his Democrat rival right now.

After the election, it will be very interesting to compare the number of votes Trump gets with the number of votes Conryn gets, and contrast with the number of votes Biden gets vs Hegar. What I'd specifically be looking for is what percentage of people voted for Senator but did not vote for anyone in the Presidential race. I suspect more republican voters would fall into that category than Democrats. Both Conryn and Hegar are relatively "inoffensive" to their opposition, not like Beto/Cruz which was something of a battle of extremes.

breezy1985

Using the absolute worst possible polling from a Trump point of view how many states would he be predicted to win. I assume we have no chance of an FDR or Reagan style landslide do we ?

Foxtrol

Manic Moran wrote: »

I'll be surprised if Texas turns blue even in the cycle after next. That's not to say that they won't vote Biden (I think it unlikely, but I won't be massively surprised if it happens). Not liking Trump does not necessarily correlate with an approval of Democrats around here, I think the overall 'leanings' of Texas will be better represented by their voting patterns on Congressmen and state legislators than by President on this particular issue. (The same can probably be said for a few traditionally non-blue States). Conryn is about 8 ahead in the polls over his Democrat rival right now.

After the election, it will be very interesting to compare the number of votes Trump gets with the number of votes Conryn gets, and contrast with the number of votes Biden gets vs Hegar. What I'd specifically be looking for is what percentage of people voted for Senator but did not vote for anyone in the Presidential race. I suspect more republican voters would fall into that category than Democrats. Both Conryn and Hegar are relatively "inoffensive" to their opposition, not like Beto/Cruz which was something of a battle of extremes.

Senate support is one thing but isn't numbers you highlighted in bold at least in part thanks to ridiculous levels gerrymandering by the GOP?

Look at GOP darling Dan Crenshaw's district. It would be deemed a farce in nearly any other functioning democracy.

https://twitter.com/nknash/status/1261060716557041664?s=20

Inquitus

breezy1985 wrote: »

Using the absolute worst possible polling from a Trump point of view how many states would he be predicted to win. I assume we have no chance of an FDR or Reagan style landslide do we ?

Yep if you take 538 Politics worst prediction of their top 100 simulation outcomes, from 100,000's of runs there are a good number over 400 EC Votes for Biden.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Kermit.de.frog

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The latest Rasmussen reports are out.

Their weekly Election Poll now has Biden at +12 - 52% to 40%.

Trump led by +1 two weeks ago.

Their daily "Presidential Approval" Poll now has Trump at 54% disapproval with 49% "Strongly disapproving".

Again , two weeks ago Trump was at 52% approval.

The gap between Strongly Approve and Strongly Disapprove has gone from +4 on September 18th to -15 today.

A 19 point negative swing in "Strong" opinion in about 3 weeks.

That's just huge , especially from Rasmussen who traditionally would be a few points more positive towards Trump and the GOP than the rest of the pollsters.

It gives real credence to the +12 and +16 polls from CNN and IPSOS in recent days.

And I presume that does not take in to account the most recent insane move by Trump to block further discussions on a stimulus meant to try and try and protect millions of livelihoods.

That's the one thing that could actually eat in to the core base of his support.

Personally I think it's over but these are not normal times.

droidus

Worst case scenarios for Trump would be a 371-418 loss (the latter includes Texas and SC). If the very worst of the national polls are right (15 points or so) you could be seeing Biden in the 440s. So not quite Reagan territory but still outrageous in the modern context.

Rjd2

this is done bar a miracle

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1313864229707866113

pixelburp

Foxtrol wrote: »

Senate support is one thing but isn't numbers you highlighted in bold at least in part thanks to ridiculous levels gerrymandering by the GOP?

Look at GOP darling Dan Crenshaw's district. It would be deemed a farce in nearly any other functioning democracy.

https://twitter.com/nknash/status/1261060716557041664?s=20

American constituency maps are (often) an affront to democracy. And says a great deal that the very word "Gerrymandering" is itself American.

Itssoeasy

Rjd2 wrote: »

this is done bar a miracle

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1313864229707866113

It’s going to right way but the Biden campaign need to continue like they are three points down and keep attacking. Hail Mary shots from beyond half court do go in at times. I’m not sure why I used basketball as the analogy but I did.

BonnieSituation

Rjd2 wrote: »

this is done bar a miracle

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1313864229707866113

And while it likely is. To ease up now would be monumentally foolish.

This is stand on the neck territory. Make sure to keep the foot there just in case.

VinLieger

Foxtrol wrote: »

Senate support is one thing but isn't numbers you highlighted in bold at least in part thanks to ridiculous levels gerrymandering by the GOP?

Look at GOP darling Dan Crenshaw's district. It would be deemed a farce in nearly any other functioning democracy.

https://twitter.com/nknash/status/1261060716557041664?s=20

While the Democrats may not be as prolific in the amount of gerrymandering they have done they are also far from innocent and have done their fair share of it as well.

Also please dont anyone take this as an attempt to defend the GOP, just it needs to be pointed out that both sides do make use of the tactic, however the GOP definitely use it far more.

Infini

Rjd2 wrote: »

this is done bar a miracle

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1313864229707866113

It aint over till the fat lady sings, if these numbers are right they need to drive this home into the ground, kill this troll with fire etc. Can't let the guard down until after this election is over and were absolutely sure this idiot party and their troll president is ground into the dirt once and for all.

Quin_Dub

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

And I presume that does not take in to account the most recent insane move by Trump to block further discussions on a stimulus meant to try and try and protect millions of livelihoods.

That's the one thing that could actually eat in to the core base of his support.

Personally I think it's over but these are not normal times.

The daily one might , the weekly one definitely doesn't

Watch now for a GOP Grandee , like McConnell , Grassley or similar coming out with "we need to vote strategically to ensure balance" messaging which will signal that they have given up on the WH are are trying to protect the Senate/

Manic Moran

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The daily one might , the weekly one definitely doesn't

Watch now for a GOP Grandee , like McConnell , Grassley or similar coming out with "we need to vote strategically to ensure balance" messaging which will signal that they have given up on the WH are are trying to protect the Senate/

That happened a month or two ago.

Brian?

breezy1985 wrote: »

Using the absolute worst possible polling from a Trump point of view how many states would he be predicted to win. I assume we have no chance of an FDR or Reagan style landslide do we ?

Worst case is Biden winning about 400 EC votes. Nowhere near FDR/Reagan levels. I think FDR only lost 1 state

eire4

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And while it likely is. To ease up now would be monumentally foolish.

This is stand on the neck territory. Make sure to keep the foot there just in case.

I would say also that at this point the key senate races come into play as well. If Biden is winning by such a big margin that you would think they would have a spill over effect in favour of Democrats in senate races as well.

Foxtrol

VinLieger wrote: »

While the Democrats may not be as prolific in the amount of gerrymandering they have done they are also far from innocent and have done their fair share of it as well.

Also please dont anyone take this as an attempt to defend the GOP, just it needs to be pointed out that both sides do make use of the tactic, however the GOP definitely use it far more.

Agreed that the democrats do it also, however they have recently passed legislation to stop it which the GOP refuse to even vote on it in the senate.

It is clear one party wants to end it (D) and the other is clinging to it (R), along with many other tools to stop voters getting what they want.

circular flexing

Rjd2 wrote: »

this is done bar a miracle massive voter suppression and election stealing effort[

Fixed that for you.

Rjd2

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The bottom line is in 2016 , Trump won by ~70,000 votes across 3 mid-western States.

Hi squeaked in on the basis of Three main things.

1 - Hilary Clinton is universally disliked , across the board
2 - General frustration with "Politicians"
3 - Because of #1 & #2 , A fairly large element of "Give him a go , what's the worst that could happen"

Now though -

1 - Joe Biden just isn't disliked by anyone really , despite what the Trump team try to say - In this respect his "blandness" is a strength
2 - That still applies , but Trump is now "The Politician"
3 - Everybody knows exactly what they have to lose and they will vote accordingly and given that his approval rating has never gotten above 50% for his entire tenure that vote preference is not likely to be in his favour.

I got to stop using this term, but in those states he barely won, those people elected him because they were thought he was a populist, instead they got zombie reganism on steroids.

The term "drain the swamp" clearly resonated with many, but when elected he was the lapdog of swamp creatures Mitch and Paul Ryan.

Their was a fine article by the excellent Joan Coaston in vox the other month about it.

https://www.vox.com/2020/8/27/21375100/gop-trump-2020-conservatism-populism

Brian?

This is the most powerful ad yet by the Lincoln Project.

https://youtu.be/juSahA0muZA

6 weeks ago I was convinced Trump would win. He's managed to make every wrong turn possible in his campaign though. Luckily. I now think he's gone. The fat lady hasn't sung yet, but she's back stage drinking tea with honey and practising scales.

Tell me how

Brian? wrote: »

This is the most powerful ad yet by the Lincoln Project.

https://youtu.be/juSahA0muZA

6 weeks ago I was convinced Trump would win. He's managed to make every wrong turn possible in his campaign though. Luckily. I now think he's gone. The far ladt hasn't sung yet, but she's back stage drinking tea with honey and practising scales.

I read that posting wondering how and why are the Far Left going to sing.

Definitely a politics junkie.


On your point though, I thought at the start of the year that he was going to win. His handling of Covid and BLM was so disastrous I felt the tide had turned and then the Atlantic Story, the tax story, the debate and him (and his entire cohort) getting Covid I felt really put him behind a distant second in a 2 horse race.

But, I'm still nervous that if Biden was to get Covid that it could change everything.

Edit: That's a powerful ad alright.

Igotadose

Brian? wrote: »

This is the most powerful ad yet by the Lincoln Project.

https://youtu.be/juSahA0muZA

6 weeks ago I was convinced Trump would win. He's managed to make every wrong turn possible in his campaign though. Luckily. I now think he's gone. The far ladt hasn't sung yet, but she's back stage drinking tea with honey and practising scales.

Ehh on the ad. The "lord of the rings" reference made it a fail for me.

But, yeah, historic lead by Biden == no chance for Trump. I think Biden lands one of Florida or Texas, and flips all the 'swing' states back (PA, WI, MN.) Maybe one of the southern stalwarts too like SC or GA. So, whatever those numbers work out to be, high 300's I think.