US Presidential Election 2020

Gbear · 06-10-2020 5:48pm

pixelburp wrote: »

But then I've had this conversation tangentially with an American, who with utter sincerity used the phrase, "tyranny of the majority" in knocking down any kind of centralised, majority lead decision-making process. It's absurd.

It's a fair question in principle. Direct democracy is a good way to vote your way into tyranny. You only need to see the self-sabotage of Brexit to see why it's very important to use democracy judiciously.

But, but but but but but. But. The US already has an enormous number of safeguards in place to protect minorities, from the bill of rights, to the number of vetoes inherent in the legislative process (without even mentioning the filibuster), and you have minoritarian branches in the Senate and Presidency.

Even the house isn't fully proportional, because the gap between Wyoming and other states has grown and it's no longer, for example, 1/53rd as large as California. California should now have 79 representatives to maintain proportionality, and it should presumably be recalculated for all the other states as well, with 1 seat per 500k inhabitants.

And all of that ignores that, of course, the people whining about this aren't a minority and mostly have an incredibly privileged position within the social hierarchy, or owe any lack therin not to their social position, but their economic one.

One can only assume that they fear the demographic changes because they think the rest of the country will treat them as badly as they have minorities.

If the Democrats are serious about the democratic process on a systemic level, they need to go some distance to neuter the executive branch. Strengthen it where necessary for genuinely national-level problems, like climate change, but what Trump has shown that there is a massive danger in the imperial presidency. Even if your side can be trusted, it doesn't mean the other can.

Quin_Dub · 06-10-2020 5:49pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Oh we seen nothing yet apparently republicans are discussing how to ignore the vote altogether in some states

https://www.salon.com/2020/10/06/trump-campaign-discussing-plans-to-appoint-its-own-state-electors-no-matter-the-results-report/

I can't wait for Trump excusers here try to square this swastika shape

They can and they can't though..

They'd need the support of either the Governor or the State Secretary (varies in some states as to who signs off on the results in a State) for those "electors" to have standing.

And Crucially , those roles are held by the Democratic party in places like Michigan , Wisconsin and Pennsylvania

droidus · 06-10-2020 6:29pm

This came up previously - what's to stop Republican state legislators claiming Democrat officials are all in on the election fraud plot and just nominating electors illegally? Who would actually would prevent them?

If the aim is to cause chaos and prevent the election being certified then pointless court battles would go some way to achieving that result.

Foxtrol · 06-10-2020 6:37pm

droidus wrote: »

This came up previously - what's to stop Republican state legislators claiming Democrat officials are all in on the election fraud plot and just nominating electors illegally? Who would actually would prevent them?

If the aim is to cause chaos and prevent the election being certified then pointless court battles would go some way to achieving that result.

Even then it would take the majority of Republicans in many purple states to go all in on dictatorship.

It has definitely been a slippery slope of Trump breaking norms and getting away with it but nominating electors illegally is a whole different ballpark of what has happened so far. It would be basically calling time on the US as a democracy, which I'm not sure many are that interested in.

Manic Moran · 06-10-2020 6:47pm

droidus wrote: »

This came up previously - what's to stop Republican state legislators claiming Democrat officials are all in on the election fraud plot and just nominating electors illegally? Who would actually would prevent them?

I went over this by referencing the legislation regarding appointment of electors of a few sample states previously (I seem to recall they were Michigan, Georgia, Florida). There is nothing in the legislation giving the power to legislators to nominate electors. There's not even verbiage which can be twisted or creatively misinterpreted to provide such an option, they are entirely out of the loop.

I mean, sure, they can try, but I can also declare myself an independent republic with about the same level of effectiveness. I just don't see it happening.

Rjd2 · 06-10-2020 9:05pm

This is astounding. Its easy to blame Trump and yeah as pres he deserves majority of criticism.

However lets review this again, their is an election next month, Trump is in trouble number wise, GOP may lose the senate and the house looks gone and the GOP in an era where the economy is in the toilet walk away from giving cheques to Americans who are struggling.

Ignore the cruelty of it, the stupidity of this is astonishing. Surely they want to have some power after November?

So today Trump downplayed the virus and his party walked away from cutting stimulus money? 3D CHESS.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1313556681826107392

https://twitter.com/esaagar/status/1313552879035265024

Rjd2 · 06-10-2020 9:09pm

" Muh balanced budget" Ayn Rand crackpots.

The amusing thing is if they lose they will blame Trump entirely for their wipeout and obviously he will deserve a lot of blame , but not once will they ever consider their slavish devotion to Zombie Reganism as reason for their defeat.

Probably leaves them vulnerable to a much more savvy version of Trump emerging in 2024, but heh maybe Nikki Haley rambling about communism and "free money" will regain the white house in 2024. :rolleyes:

Foxtrol · 06-10-2020 9:18pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

This is astounding. Its easy to blame Trump and yeah as pres he deserves majority of criticism.

However lets review this again, their is an election next month, Trump is in trouble number wise, GOP may lose the senate and the house looks gone and the GOP in an era where the economy is in the toilet walk away from giving cheques to Americans who are struggling.

Ignore the cruelty of it, the stupidity of this is astonishing. Surely they want to have some power after November?

So today Trump downplayed the virus and his party walked away from cutting stimulus money? 3D CHESS.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1313556681826107392

https://twitter.com/esaagar/status/1313552879035265024

Not only accepting blame but also linking it to the confirmation of ACB. Now all the democrats can say over and over again that the GOP are putting the confirmation in front of helping the American people. It is beyond stupid

Rjd2 · 06-10-2020 9:23pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

Not only accepting blame but also linking it to the confirmation of ACB. Now all the democrats can say over and over again that the GOP are putting the confirmation in front of helping the American people. It is beyond stupid

I read that earlier and assumed it was someone at mischief ,,,but nope.

Just bizarre, I get the GOP have probably given up on Trump winning, but if they are serious about holding the senate and reducing the dem majority focusing on cutting cheques is much more important than confirming ACB.

Quin_Dub · 06-10-2020 9:38pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

I read that earlier and assumed it was someone at mischief ,,,but nope.

Just bizarre, I get the GOP have probably given up on Trump winning, but if they are serious about holding the senate and reducing the dem majority focusing on cutting cheques is much more important than confirming ACB.

This makes it clear they know it's done.

The want to fill the SCOTUS seat before they lose the ability to appoint any Judges for the next decade.

They don't want to give the Stimulus because they want the economy in the horrors for Biden. The last thing they want to do is give him any kind of leg up when he takes over in January.

The only risk to Biden now is voters thinking that he's home and hosed.

The messaging from them must ensure that doesn't happen.

Outlaw Pete · 06-10-2020 9:41pm

everlast75 wrote: »

They are a diminishing party. They have to steal the vote.

Yeah, not like the DNC would ever engage in such tactics of course:

Honestly, it's unreal the way the republicans get accused of wanting to do the very things which democrats are already guilty of attempting to do.

Hillary Clinton behind plan to tie Trump to Russia, CIA warned FBI

The CIA wrote a highly classified three-page memo to FBI Director James Comey and Agent Peter Strzok telling them candidate Hillary Clinton had approved a plan to blame Russian computer-hacking on Donald Trump.

The Washington Times obtained a copy of the heavily redacted memo sent to the FBI on Sept. 7, 2016, weeks after Mr. Strzok had opened the Crossfire Hurricane probe into the Trump campaign on suspicion of conspiring with the Kremlin.

Full article here.

Donald Trump nor the GOP tried to steal the election in 2016 and they won't be trying to do so this time either. The DNC on the other hand I can't speak to re 2020, but given what went on the 2016, who knows with those people.

Call me Al · 06-10-2020 9:50pm

Refreshing to hear Biden talk at a campaign event at Gettysburg.
Hopeful, mature, showing leadership.

Quin_Dub · 06-10-2020 9:59pm

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Yeah, not like the DNC would ever engage in such tactics of course:

Honestly, it's unreal the way the republicans get accused of wanting to do the very things which democrats are already guilty of attempting to do.

Donald Trump nor the GOP tried to steal the election in 2016 and they won't be trying to do so this time either. The DNC on the other hand I can't speak to re 2020, but given what went on the 2016, who knows with those people.

Ah yes, the Russian propaganda released by the oh so qualified John Ratcliffe.

The reason why no one has seen that particular piece of "intelligence" before is because everyone considered it to be utter rubbish almost certainly provided by Russian intelligence to drive confusion.

Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe on Tuesday declassified a Russian intelligence assessment that was previously rejected by Democrats and Republicans on the Senate Intelligence Committee as having no factual basis, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

It was treated as the tripe that it was until Ratcliffe, who's only qualification for the job he's in is his undying obsequiousness to Trump , released this knowing that it is almost certainly Russian dis-information - He even says it in the release..

The IC does not know the accuracy of this allegation or the extent to which the Russian intelligence analysis may reflect exaggeration or fabrication.

Clutching at straws doesn't even begin to describe it.

Foxtrol · 06-10-2020 9:59pm

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Yeah, not like the DNC would ever engage in such tactics of course:

Honestly, it's unreal the way the republicans get accused of wanting to do the very things which democrats are already guilty of attempting to do.

Donald Trump nor the GOP tried to steal the election in 2016 and they won't be trying to do so this time either. The DNC on the other hand I can't speak to re 2020, but given what went on the 2016, who knows with those people.

What is this supposed to prove?

Even if it was true, Crossfire Hurricane had already been opened, the golden shower dossier was already doing the rounds, Trump had already in public asked Russia to release the DNC emails (along with several other very weird statements regarding Russia), and all the Trump campaign's close ties with Russia were becoming public. It wouldn't have been a strange step to take.

Is this the best you have to cling to?

greenfield21 · 06-10-2020 10:03pm

Trump will use EOs from treasury to get money out there, Pelosi probably looking for two much goodies to benefit Democrats. Still don't think this stimulus package is lost, it doesn't take long to get stimulus checks out.

Also does that CNN poll have the economy basically fourth on list of worries and climate change on 60%( very important, important) WTF. Where do they find these people.

Quin_Dub · 06-10-2020 10:10pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

Trump will use EOs from treasury to get money out there, Pelosi probably looking for two much goodies to benefit Democrats. Still don't think this stimulus package is lost, it doesn't take long to get stimulus checks out.

Also does that CNN poll have the economy basically fourth on list of worries and climate change on 60%( very important, important) WTF. Where do they find these people.

He can't - Money can ONLY come from Congress.

The President cannot change the budget.

So unless something is passed in both houses , no money can be made available.

FatherTed · 06-10-2020 11:40pm

I sent in my absentee ballot last Saturday. So easy to do. In my city (Connecticut pop 85,000) there are 8 drop off ballot places while inTexas the Republican Governor is limiting to 1 per county....

BonnieSituation · 06-10-2020 11:47pm

FatherTed wrote: »

I sent in my absentee ballot last Saturday. So easy to do. In my city (Connecticut pop 85,000) there are 8 drop off ballot places while inTexas the Republican Governor is limiting to 1 per county....

Maybe Danbury isn't the sh*thole that John Oliver insisted it was.

---
How could anyone look at what you have written above and still defend the GOP?

Rjd2 · 07-10-2020 4:06am

Quin_Dub wrote: »

This makes it clear they know it's done.

The want to fill the SCOTUS seat before they lose the ability to appoint any Judges for the next decade.

They don't want to give the Stimulus because they want the economy in the horrors for Biden. The last thing they want to do is give him any kind of leg up when he takes over in January.

.

Oh yeah they are desperate to get ACB confirmed for sure, but I think you underestimate how some of the GOP are so slavish in their devotion to Zombie reganism. Even when the election looked much closer a few months ago their was plenty of moaning about "free money" etc.

These type of GOP politicians,,,their biggest fear is poor people getting "more money than they should",,, doesn't matter if their is votes in it .

A lazy comparison in Ireland would be people who spend way to much time crying about people on welfare getting an extra tenner every Xmas.

Midlife · 07-10-2020 6:17am

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Yeah, not like the DNC would ever engage in such tactics of course:

Honestly, it's unreal the way the republicans get accused of wanting to do the very things which democrats are already guilty of attempting to do.

Donald Trump nor the GOP tried to steal the election in 2016 and they won't be trying to do so this time either. The DNC on the other hand I can't speak to re 2020, but given what went on the 2016, who knows with those people.

Weak, very weak.

Someone comments on gerrymandering and you attempt to create an equivalence with a story from a paper that has very clear bias about Clinton and Russia 4 years ago.

dwayneshintzy · 07-10-2020 6:25am

greenfield21 wrote: »

Trump will use EOs from treasury to get money out there, Pelosi probably looking for two much goodies to benefit Democrats. Still don't think this stimulus package is lost, it doesn't take long to get stimulus checks out.

Also does that CNN poll have the economy basically fourth on list of worries and climate change on 60%( very important, important) WTF. Where do they find these people.

Give us an example of what you're talking about here, please.

LuckyLloyd · 07-10-2020 8:22am

partyguinness wrote: »

TBH I wouldnt get too hung up on national polls. The US does not vote nationally. It votes on a state by state basis and the popular (national) vote is somewhat irrelevant as we have seen twice in the past 20 years.

partyguinness wrote: »

I would say it's 50-50 at best.

I would say Florida, NC and Arizona are within the margin of error and current 'red' states. Too close for comfort IMO.

We can only analyse the polling we have. A huge amount of effort has been put in by the likes of 538 and other predictors to distill the polls that make up the model and be clear on what the data is actually saying and its limitations.

The 'oh well the polls were wrong in 2016' and 'you just never know' type responses don't really help us get anywhere. Particularly when early voting is underway in numerous states. The election happens November 3rd, sure, but early voting volumes are extremely strong already:

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/06/election-2020-fueled-democrats-early-voting-way-up/3623292001/

So polls may tighten and surprises my happen and Trump may have 5% hidden silent minority. But we have a really strong polling perspective today and a subset of voters are heading to the polls today.

Quin_Dub · 07-10-2020 8:40am

Just on early voting.

This time 4 years ago there were about 75k early/postal votes cast.

As of earlier this week 4.2 Million votes had been cast.

A large majority of those votes cast are from Democrats it doesn't mean that Republican voters aren't going to vote , but it does mean that large numbers of votes are done and dusted already , at a time when Trump is badly behind in the polling.

Nothing that happens over the next 4 weeks can change those votes now, which is bad news for Trump.

Some States have seen a large percentage of the votes cast already - South Dakota has already had 23% of the total from 2016 , Wisconsin has had 15% and 17% in Virginia.

That's going to be significant.

beggars_bush · 07-10-2020 9:26am

Rjd2 wrote: »

Oh yeah they are desperate to get ACB confirmed for sure, but I think you underestimate how some of the GOP are so slavish in their devotion to Zombie reganism. Even when the election looked much closer a few months ago their was plenty of moaning about "free money" etc.

These type of GOP politicians,,,their biggest fear is poor people getting "more money than they should",,, doesn't matter if their is votes in it .

A lazy comparison in Ireland would be people who spend way to much time crying about people on welfare getting an extra tenner every Xmas.

the same people were queuing outside Smyths the other day to spend that tenner before they had even got it

07-10-2020 1:34pm

I'm expecting the voter turnout to be massive. This will be the election that has the youth vote up by a serious percentage. The comparisons people are making to Clinton's polling around 2016 are especially naive. We've seen what 4 years of Trump looks like. I'm sure plenty of centrist and moderate Republicans are sick to death of hearing about Trump's f-ups every single day. Joe Biden may be bland but he doesn't need to be charismatic to get the vote out when there is a lunatic running on the other side. And if there is anyone with a (D) beside their name that the moderate Republicans will vote for it's a glorified "lite" Democrat like Joe Biden.

Even with all the mail in ballot court cases the GOP are trying to throw at Democrats to get the turnout down I don't think they can really do anything to stop this. Biden is only 3 points behind Trump is Texas. The fact it is even that close in such a deep red state tells you all you need to know.

Quin_Dub · 07-10-2020 1:58pm

The bottom line is in 2016 , Trump won by ~70,000 votes across 3 mid-western States.

Hi squeaked in on the basis of Three main things.

1 - Hilary Clinton is universally disliked , across the board
2 - General frustration with "Politicians"
3 - Because of #1 & #2 , A fairly large element of "Give him a go , what's the worst that could happen"

Now though -

1 - Joe Biden just isn't disliked by anyone really , despite what the Trump team try to say - In this respect his "blandness" is a strength
2 - That still applies , but Trump is now "The Politician"
3 - Everybody knows exactly what they have to lose and they will vote accordingly and given that his approval rating has never gotten above 50% for his entire tenure that vote preference is not likely to be in his favour.

StringerBell · 07-10-2020 2:28pm

I've decided Biden is gonna win Texas today.

Democrats tend to outperform the polls in Texas and that's what I've decided for the day. Cause if he wins Texas it doesn't really matter about Florida or Pennsylvania or wherever. JC is gonna lose his senate seat in texas too for the same reasons. Happy thoughts today.

marno21 · 07-10-2020 2:29pm

Clinton struggled to break 47 in the polls after April 2016. She was ahead in the polls until election day but there was a sizeable chunk of undecideds

Biden has broken 50 in every single poll since the debate, he has a double digit lead in the majority and his lead has been greater than the proportion of undecides in every single one of them.

Comparisons between 2016 and 2020 are completely meaningless at this stage. And that's before you examine the leads Biden has in nearly every swing state

Water John · 07-10-2020 2:40pm

The main question at this point is, can the Dems seal the deal? Get the numbers they have, to vote.

StringerBell · 07-10-2020 2:52pm

Water John wrote: »

The main question at this point is, can the Dems seal the deal? Get the numbers they have, to vote.

Traditionally thats where they have fallen down, Republicans get it together and get out and vote. Democrats tend to infight and protest vote and abstain etc for various reasons. Going from 2018 which was good turnout for mid terms and the absolute sea of opposition to Donald trump they really, really should be motivated and get the vote out this election. Making sure they can and that they are counted is another story.

It has got to be undeniable, thats all I know. They have to make themselves undeniable. An overwhelming rejection of trump and of the strategy Mitch has used since 2008 (even before Obama was sworn in they had a strategy planned) is all that might tilt the Republican party back to being ideological adversaries but back on common ground.

US Presidential Election 2020

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