US Presidential Election 2020

An Ciarraioch

Some more straws in the wind from early voting requests for mail votes - Oklahoma and South Dakota are two of the safest states for Trump, yet in the first Democrats have requested more ballots, and in the second, Republicans are a minority when the Dem and independent requests are combined, which hardly augurs well for the GOP in the bellwether states:

https://electproject.github.io/early-vote-2020g/ok.html

https://electproject.github.io/early-vote-2020g/sd.html

Realt Dearg Sec

Fact is the Dems can't rest on these numbers, firstly because resting on polling numbers killed them before, secondly because polling numbers like these can breed voter complacency, third the voter suppression is ramping into high gear, and fourth and most important, winning the presidency but not taking the Senate would be only marginally better than losing the presidency. Winning it all is going to be vital to actually carry out an agenda that widens health care access, control greenhouse emissions, and rehabilitates the economy while getting covid under control. If you're trying to do that with Mitch still in control of the Senate you're a one legged man in an arse kicking competition. Republicans are, in fact, at their best when they don't have to do anything, just stop things. 

That's aside from the fact that an absolute neck stomping will be needed to quiet claims that the election isn't legitimate.

Water John

I agree that the Dems need to go all out, but I don't like the 'stomping on the neck' analogy used by some, for obvious reasons. No personal slight intended.

breezy1985

Igotadose wrote: »

Ehh on the ad. The "lord of the rings" reference made it a fail for me.

But, yeah, historic lead by Biden == no chance for Trump. I think Biden lands one of Florida or Texas, and flips all the 'swing' states back (PA, WI, MN.) Maybe one of the southern stalwarts too like SC or GA. So, whatever those numbers work out to be, high 300's I think.

Lord of the rings ?

everlast75

Another positive result from the notoriously Republican biased poll..

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1313864229707866113?s=19

Trump's only solution to a problem is more Trump. But he can't campaign. Even the debate is in jeopardy. He isn't even ringing in Fox to mouth off.

Water John

Now you'll see GOP down the ballot scrambling for the rocks.

everlast75

Water John wrote: »

Now you'll see GOP down the ballot scrambling for the rocks.

Donations will fall away too the more it looks like he will lose..

Faugheen

Quinnipiac University poll (B+ on 538):

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3678

Biden with an 11pt lead in Florida...

You’ll have to excuse my skepticism on that one.

Gbear

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It’s going to right way but the Biden campaign need to continue like they are three points down and keep attacking. Hail Mary shots from beyond half court do go in at times. I’m not sure why I used basketball as the analogy but I did.

It won't even require that. If they're working on the assumption that Trump will cheat if at all possible, which they should, because he will, then the polls aren't even that relevant. They're facing an uphill battle no matter what happens.

VinLieger wrote: »

While the Democrats may not be as prolific in the amount of gerrymandering they have done they are also far from innocent and have done their fair share of it as well.

Also please dont anyone take this as an attempt to defend the GOP, just it needs to be pointed out that both sides do make use of the tactic, however the GOP definitely use it far more.

There's a few dimensions of poltical ****ery, but you could split them between exceptional stuff, which is stuff that happens independent of the political system, so stuff like outright election fraud, voter intimidation, etc, and then there's stuff within the political system. Gerrymandering falls in the latter. It is the inevitable result of a system that has no independent oversight and rewards that behaviour.

We're not any better simply because we don't gerrymander. We've constructed a sytstem that prevents it entirely, but if it were possible, you'd see it here too.

What's instructive here isn't so much who's doing gerrymandering, because to a large extent, you should gerrymander if the system is set up to do so. However, where the Democrats are better is that there is a stronger push among them to take it off the table entirely.

Igotadose

breezy1985 wrote: »

Lord of the rings ?

"Ease your passing." Sorry no one would say that in the US. Gimli did dramatically sat that to an orc in The Two Towers if I remember correctly.

briany

everlast75 wrote: »

He isn't even ringing in Fox to mouth off.

Trump's been making noises that he's over the covid. End of the day, if Trump's in a fit state to mouth off to Fox News he will absolutely do so, and I can't really think of any other explanation for not doing so other than he is indeed not in a fit state.

Water John

On present figures, even if you apply what happened to the figures Biden will still have 319 EC votes.
Going on the present figures he is 100 EC votes ahead. for the Dems it's about, closing the deal.

Realt Dearg Sec

Water John wrote: »

I agree that the Dems need to go all out, but I don't like the 'stomping on the neck' analogy used by some, for obvious reasons. No personal slight intended.

Fair point.

Would echo the poster above questioning the Quinnipiac poll since those are always skewed Dem, but given that Rasmussen is showing what it is, it's overall very promising. If you ever want to give yourself a good laugh, read the Rasmussen Twitter feed, which is basically unashamed Trump cheerleading and lib-baiting nonsense, and remind yourself that people actually include their findings in polling data. And even they couldn't spin it for him right now.

Regarding the money question, word now is that Biden has expanded ad buys in Texas, and in Ohio, while Trump has gone completely dark in Ohio, Iowa, Texas and New Hampshire for the last two weeks. Strong indicator of where the money is right now.

All that being said, October is LONG. I have no doubt there are twists to this one yet, because there always are. I'm just hoping Trump has left whatever October surprise he has in mind too late to be able to recover from his own incompetence.

briany

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

All that being said, October is LONG. I have no doubt there are twists to this one yet, because there always are. I'm just hoping Trump has left whatever October surprise he has in mind too late to be able to recover from his own incompetence.

If he's got a surprise up his sleeve, it looks like it's going to have to be quite dramatic indeed!

Quin_Dub

Good Lord , talk about carrying water for Trump

They are spinning the cancelling of ad buys in Ohio and Iowa as being "because we don't need them because we're winning

President Trump has canceled upcoming television ad buys in Ohio and Iowa in a move his campaign touted as a sign of the strength of their position in the key states ahead of Election Day.

The Trump campaign canceled ad buys worth $2.5 million in Ohio and $820,000 in Iowa for the upcoming week, according to data from ad-tracking firm Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group. The president has pulled back on ad spending in Ohio in recent months after outspending the campaign of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by a significant margin from May to September.

Both RCP and 538 have Biden slightly ahead in both those States right now, but inside the MOE

So yeah , "Cancelling the advertising because we're winning" sounds absolutely legit.

dark crystal

Reassuring words from FBI Director Chris Wray concerning election security - interesting how much he mentions safeguarding the election from foreign influences:

https://twitter.com/FBI/status/1313494766387105794

I'm really hoping the election is not going to be anywhere near as chaotic and underhanded as some commentators are suggesting.

I'm also hoping the results are so clear cut, they won't need to be dragged out and contested for weeks or months afterwards.

Hope is always a good thing...

VinLieger

Igotadose wrote: »

"Ease your passing." Sorry no one would say that in the US. Gimli did dramatically sat that to an orc in The Two Towers if I remember correctly.

In no way is that a lord of the rings reference, you might as well accuse them of quoting Clear and Present Danger for using the phrase "Lifelong Friends".

Using even an uncommon phrase that might also appear coincidentally in another piece of media doesnt mean your directly quoting it.

everlast75

*another* unprecedented endorsement.

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1313948445091258369?s=19

At what point do trump supporters realise that maybe, just maybe, everyone else is right?

briany

everlast75 wrote: »

At what point do trump supporters realise that maybe, just maybe, everyone else is right?

The more that people speak out against Trump, the more Trump supporters become absolutely convinced that he must have the deep state really rattled.

duploelabs

everlast75 wrote: »

*another* unprecedented endorsement.

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1313948445091258369?s=19

At what point do trump supporters realise that maybe, just maybe, everyone else is right?

Personally I wouldn't respect the New England journal of medicine as they're the source to the myth that msg is bad for you

Tell me how

A former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and public health titan who led the eradication of smallpox asked the embattled, current CDC leader to expose the failed U.S. response to the coronavirus, calling on him to orchestrate his own firing to protest White House interference.


USA Today

Bold added by me here but a fairly unambiguous statement no matter your feelings.

“You could upfront, acknowledge the tragedy of responding poorly, apologize for what has happened and your role in acquiescing,” Foege wrote to Redfield. He said simply resigning without coming clean would be insufficient. “Don’t shy away from the fact this has been an unacceptable toll on our country. It is a slaughter and not just a political dispute.”

BonnieSituation

What time is the debate on?

2am Irish time?

Realt Dearg Sec

BonnieSituation wrote: »

What time is the debate on?

2am Irish time?

Yeah. Should be perfect if you're suffering from insomnia.

paul71

duploelabs wrote: »

Personally I wouldn't respect the New England journal of medicine as they're the source to the myth that msg is bad for you

What?

BonnieSituation

He's already opened with a a lie. Calm thoughtful lies are easier to believe than that boorish ranting 2 weeks ago.

Rjd2

BonnieSituation wrote: »

He's already opened with a a lie. Calm thoughtful lies are easier to believe than that boorish ranting 2 weeks ago.

He's always been good at this sort of thing, probably beat Tim Kaine 4 years ago, but its a bloody big ask to defend Trump on covid.

Arghus

I'll say this for him, Mike Pence is a good liar.

The Floyd p

Hard for Pence to push a line of Liberty for the American people, when a lack of guidance from the government has been a massive issue regarding Covid cases. Sometimes you need to push for legal paternalism.

Tell me how

Some neck to ask her to stop playing politics with peoples' lives.

He shouldn't get his time now to talk about being VP to the oldest President.

Character Building

This moderator is hopeless