US Presidential Election 2020

VinLieger

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I agree , there's a significant chance that his condition worsens again over the next few weeks.

I hope it doesn't but there's absolutely no guarantee that it won't.

I'm not sure that changes the dynamics of the Election all that much either way though.

If he were to have to step down and have Pence run instead I don't see that having a huge impact to be honest. It might narrow it up a little but Pence isn't a guy that's suddenly going to make ~5 Million voters change their minds.

It makes the VP debate interesting - Pence might actually try to paint himself as a potential leader rather than just running blocking for Trump as you might have expected

Watching how he performs will be interesting.

Hes not going to step down willingly no matter how ill he gets, the only way it happens is if he is completely incapacitated and the cabinet have to step in invoking the 25th amendment

droidus

I think if he's incapacitated then enthusiasm will plummet. Even the hardocre may be less gung ho about voting for him if he's on a ventilator.

breezy1985

everlast75 wrote: »

Interesting polling.

https://twitter.com/AllisonLHedges/status/1313419495373975555?s=19

Doesn't seem to be much of a sympathy bump for him?

Well his only line of attack was he was the fittest healthiest candidate so it would take serious mental gymnastics to claim that now

Quin_Dub

VinLieger wrote: »

Hes not going to step down willingly no matter how ill he gets, the only way it happens is if he is completely incapacitated.

Don't disagree at all.

However if he appears at a live event , whether that's the debates or a live campaign event and has any kind of "Medical event" like a coughing fit or a bit of a wobble when walking (like Clintons stumble in NY 4 years ago) he is utterly ruined.

Even in losing he needs to keep the margin really close so that any efforts around court cases etc. maintain even an air of legitimacy , but if the polls stay as they are , Biden could win by 150+ EC votes which will close off almost all his pathways to a Court case based victory.

Igotadose

droidus wrote: »

I think if he's incapacitated then enthusiasm will plummet. Even the hardocre may be less gung ho about voting for him if he's on a ventilator.

FFS he's struggling to put his mask in his pocket in that video and to me seems to be clearly having difficulty breathing, taking big deep breaths. Dude is in some bad shape. Hope he recovers. And then lose the election substantially.

breatheme

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The Economist Model has move Biden out to "Very Likely" to win the Electoral College.

They have him at 90% likely to win and he's at "very likely" (which is above 85%) in all the key swing states too.

Really hard to see the road back for Trump now.

Nothing is impossible , but time and momentum are just not on his side.




On Straight ticket voting - Very few states allow it anymore

Only Alabama, Indiana, Michigan, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and South Carolina still allow it.

Texas still has it for now , but that is subject to a court case shortly driven by the GOP looking to remove it.

Of the above only Michigan is a Swing state but Biden has a large and consistent lead there so do think it'll be a problem.

The one thing that bothers me is that this is a system that is affected by being observed. If Biden has it "in the bag", it may prompt people to not vote if they think it won't make much difference.

VinLieger

I still cant believe he took the mask off showing hes learnt absolutely nothing and revealing how bad his breathing is. Like he had such an easy win there and he whiffed it so incompetently just to appease his own idiotic vanity and ego.


The idea that somebody could go through what he has and still be incapable of any kind of self reflection just boggles the mind. But i don't know why im still shocked or surprised by anything he does any more.

Foxtrol

If you want a sense of how bad Trump's North Korea montage and speech last night is going down, Fox News has no images or reference to it on their home page this morning.

Everywhere else he is being slaughtered, especially by every competent medical person speaking on it. Of course Trump is still doubling down on it, contradicting what he admitted on tape to Woodward about how it is much more dangerous than the flu.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313449844413992961?s=20

Foxtrol

breatheme wrote: »

The one thing that bothers me is that this is a system that is affected by being observed. If Biden has it "in the bag", it may prompt people to not vote if they think it won't make much difference.

Given what happened in 2016 I don't think this is a big concern. People sat out or voted 3rd party thinking Trump would never win and they have had to sit through the last 4 years.

Add to that all the concerns about the GOP trying to block voters/votes and I think very few are going to feel like they don't need to make the effort. If you want evidence then look at number of people already waiting hours to cast an early vote or the number of returned mail in votes.

partyguinness

everlast75 wrote: »

Interesting polling.

https://twitter.com/AllisonLHedges/status/1313419495373975555?s=19

Doesn't seem to be much of a sympathy bump for him?

TBH I wouldnt get too hung up on national polls. The US does not vote nationally. It votes on a state by state basis and the popular (national) vote is somewhat irrelevant as we have seen twice in the past 20 years.

Quin_Dub

partyguinness wrote: »

TBH I wouldnt get too hung up on national polls. The US does not vote nationally. It votes on a state by state basis and the popular (national) vote is somewhat irrelevant as we have seen twice in the past 20 years.

Partly true - The National level vote can give you insight into where the states are likely to land.

However , Trump is also currently behind in all the key swing states

State Date Biden Trump Margin
Florida October 6th 47.9 45.6 Biden +2.3
Pennsylvania October 6th 50.8 44.2 Biden +6.6
Michigan October 6th 48.6 42.8 Biden +5.8
Wisconsin October 6th 50.2 44.2 Biden +6.0
North Carolina October 6th 48.0 46.8 Biden +1.2
Arizona October 6th 48.6 45.2 Biden +3.4

Assuming Biden holds all the States that Clinton won in 2016 , he only needs 2 or 3 of those States to win.

Igotadose

partyguinness wrote: »

TBH I wouldnt get too hung up on national polls. The US does not vote nationally. It votes on a state by state basis and the popular (national) vote is somewhat irrelevant as we have seen twice in the past 20 years.

No, but this doesn't spell good things for the GOP. Get those poll watchers out there! Burn those mailed-in ballots! Bring back Kris Kobach to do his job!

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519753-voter-enthusiasm-running-higher-than-2016-2012-survey

"Voter enthusiasm for the 2020 election is running ahead of levels in 2016 and 2012, according to Gallup polling released Tuesday."

partyguinness

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Partly true - The National level vote can give you insight into where the states are likely to land.

However , Trump is also currently behind in all the key swing states

State Date Biden Trump Margin
Florida October 6th 47.9 45.6 Biden +2.3
Pennsylvania October 6th 50.8 44.2 Biden +6.6
Michigan October 6th 48.6 42.8 Biden +5.8
Wisconsin October 6th 50.2 44.2 Biden +6.0
North Carolina October 6th 48.0 46.8 Biden +1.2
Arizona October 6th 48.6 45.2 Biden +3.4
Assuming Biden holds all the States that Clinton won in 2016 , he only needs 2 or 3 of those States to win.

I would say it's 50-50 at best.



I would say Florida, NC and Arizona are within the margin of error and current 'red' states. Too close for comfort IMO.

Quin_Dub

partyguinness wrote: »

I would say it's 50-50 at best.



I would say Florida, NC and Arizona are within the margin of error and current 'red' states. Too close for comfort IMO.

Not really - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan are more than enough for Biden to secure the Electoral college and his lead is currently well outside the MoE.

Biden doesn't need Florida or Ohio to win but Trump absolutely does , him having to fight so hard to try to keep them is drawing funding and time away from all the other States.

letowski

Technically, Biden also has a path to 270 via Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and the 2nd congressional district either in Maine and Nebraska. That would get him exactly 270 so long as he holds Clinton's 2016 states.

Quin_Dub

letowski wrote: »

Technically, Biden also has a path to 270 via Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and the 2nd congressional district either in Maine and Nebraska. That would get him exactly 270 so long as he holds Clinton's 2016 states.

Yes.. He has a variety of pathways by securing a number of combinations of States where he currently has the lead in the polling.

Trump pathway is extremely narrow , if he loses Florida there just isn't a path for him

droidus

Pennsylvania is the key state this year. If Biden wins there then its all over.

Rjd2

One thing Boris was very clever with was after he beat covid he was quite humble about the virus and how those who helped him were so great, it definitely bought some brownie points with the general public.


Trump had a great opportunity to do similar , show humility and maybe move some undecided voters but as he has done since day one, red meat to his supporters . That's his choice, but he needs more than his base to win as the polls keep reminding him.

A golden opportunity blown.

Foxtrol

Foxtrol wrote: »

Given what happened in 2016 I don't think this is a big concern. People sat out or voted 3rd party thinking Trump would never win and they have had to sit through the last 4 years.

Add to that all the concerns about the GOP trying to block voters/votes and I think very few are going to feel like they don't need to make the effort. If you want evidence then look at number of people already waiting hours to cast an early vote or the number of returned mail in votes.

Support for what I mentioned earlier about people not feeling confident and taking their opportunity to vote early. These are the lines for day 1 of early voting in Ohio

https://twitter.com/Footestu1/status/1313472069531766791?s=20

pixelburp

I was watching the latest John Oliver main segment piece on YouTube and part of it charted a young man's attempts to vote; took him 7+ hours of queuing to get into the station to vote. That's insane; real tinpot, third world country stuff rather than the functioning of the supposed, self-titled "greatest democracy in the world". And to think that the GOP would like nothing more than to make voting even harder.

everlast75

Republicans don't want abortions. Most of america does.

Republicans don't want background checks for guns. Most of america does.

They are not for gay rights. Most of america is.

They are a diminishing party. They have to steal the vote.

salmocab

pixelburp wrote: »

I was watching the latest John Oliver main segment piece on YouTube and part of it charted a young man's attempts to vote; took him 7+ hours of queuing to get into the station to vote. That's insane; real tinpot, third world country stuff rather than the functioning of the supposed, self-titled "greatest democracy in the world". And to think that the GOP would like nothing more than to make voting even harder.

It amazes me that voting takes anything more than a couple of minutes, especially as they run their elections on a schedule. We do them in a haphazard manner with a couple of months notice and I can still pop in on my way to or from work without any worries of being delayed. Its like their whole democratic system a shambles of a system not fit for purpose but somehow they just won’t change.

VinLieger

salmocab wrote: »

It amazes me that voting takes anything more than a couple of minutes, especially as they run their elections on a schedule. We do them in a haphazard manner with a couple of months notice and I can still pop in on my way to or from work without any worries of being delayed. Its like their whole democratic system a shambles of a system not fit for purpose but somehow they just won’t change.

Not to mention our system is way more complex and time consuming (and superior imo) for the voter having to rank their choices, they just tick a bunch of boxes usually down one side or the other or tap a screen in the same manner.

Foxtrol

salmocab wrote: »

It amazes me that voting takes anything more than a couple of minutes, especially as they run their elections on a schedule. We do them in a haphazard manner with a couple of months notice and I can still pop in on my way to or from work without any worries of being delayed. Its like their whole democratic system a shambles of a system not fit for purpose but somehow they just won’t change.

It isn't a bug it is the way the system is designed, the GOP have admitted it over and over that they simply don't want it to be easy for people to vote because they have a less chance of winning when more people vote.

Even with making it so difficult for people to vote, the US is already under minority rule due to the electoral college, judicial nominations, senate system, and gerrymandering.

pixelburp

Foxtrol wrote: »

It isn't a bug it is the way the system is designed, the GOP have admitted it over and over that they simply don't want it to be easy for people to vote because they have a less chance of winning when more people vote.

Even with making it so difficult for people to vote, the US is already under minority rule due to the electoral college, judicial nominations, senate system, and gerrymandering.

Indeed; and this was also something Oliver pointed out, using a direct quote from Paul Weyrich, a pivotal figure in the history of the modern American Christian Conservative movement. A fundamental pillar of modern GOP politics depends upon the inability of the majority to vote, as it's well known and established said majority would otherwise reject the policies and culture adhered to by the conservatives. Polls frequently show this, but the system is built to keep a minority faction powerful.

But then I've had this conversation tangentially with an American, who with utter sincerity used the phrase, "tyranny of the majority" in knocking down any kind of centralised, majority lead decision-making process. It's absurd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GBAsFwPglw

Foxtrol

pixelburp wrote: »

Indeed; and this was also something Oliver pointed out, using a direct quote from Paul Weyrich, a pivotal figure in the history of the modern American Christian Conservative movement. A fundamental pillar of modern GOP politics depends upon the inability of the majority to vote, as it's well known and established said majority would otherwise reject the policies and culture adhered to by the conservatives. Polls frequently show this, but the system is built to keep a minority faction powerful.

But then I've had this conversation tangentially with an American, who with utter sincerity used the phrase, "tyranny of the majority" in knocking down any kind of centralised, majority lead decision-making process. It's absurd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GBAsFwPglw

Sure earlier in the year dear leader let it slip again.

salmocab

Foxtrol wrote: »

It isn't a bug it is the way the system is designed, the GOP have admitted it over and over that they simply don't want it to be easy for people to vote because they have a less chance of winning when more people vote.

Even with making it so difficult for people to vote, the US is already under minority rule due to the electoral college, judicial nominations, senate system, and gerrymandering.

Well I get that, not sure designed is the right word. It’s certainly the system that suits the GOP in particular but the actual voting part is run by individual states and whilst maybe not as bad the blue states still don’t have a great system by and large from what I can see. It’s a terrible way to run a democracy particularly one that laughably thinks it’s the best democracy in the world when in fact it’s far from it. The actual mechanics of getting to vote with everything else aside is crap. Exercising your right to vote shouldn’t be a hassle it should be straight forward and quick.

everlast75

Interesting.
I never saw a poll that factored in likely outcomes with and without a large turnout.
(Ye probably have seen them before)

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1313494619095732224?s=20

droidus

everlast75 wrote: »

Interesting.
I never saw a poll that factored in likely outcomes with and without a large turnout.
(Ye probably have seen them before)

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1313494619095732224?s=20

An increasing Biden margin with a more republican sample than their last poll too.

eire4

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Oh we seen nothing yet apparently republicans are discussing how to ignore the vote altogether in some states

https://www.salon.com/2020/10/06/trump-campaign-discussing-plans-to-appoint-its-own-state-electors-no-matter-the-results-report/



I can't wait for Trump excusers here try to square this swastika shape

For right now they will say your just paranoid and that could never happen. Of course it could as the Republican party is at best a semi-democratic party and just like the president is leaning towards authoritarianism so no doubt in mind mind this is possible. By the way love your last line that cracked me up.