So Michael D IS running again!

Tell me how

Silentcorner wrote:

SF leadership went for a female specifically, that's where they went wrong, their candidate did not connect with voters at all, they should have gone with a much warmer personality regardless of gender, this missed an opportunity they created for themselves, it can't inspire confidence in leadership!

Yeah. I think them and SG are hurting most tonight.

Tell me how

Silentcorner wrote:

SF, a party of massive resources and has a national infrastructure and has ambitions of government in the Republic failed miserably in this election, everyone, including Irish Media, the other candidates, FG/FF/Lab, bar Casey has come out of this more damaged than everyone else!

The candidate backed by FG/FF/LAB is looking like they came out with pretty much the same vote that they were polling a month ago.

Think those parties will be OK with that.

Let the 20% 'majority' fight it out with the others.

Silentcorner

Alan_P wrote: »

I doubt Casey's visit proves anything very much really. I suspect he essentially concentrated the votes of those who hated MDH. As a random example, my mother-in-law was adamant from the start she hated MDH and wasn't voting for him :- she voted for Casey,so far as I can gather because he was the only other name she recognized.

Disastrous, humiliating result for SF :- the first major decision of McDonald's leadership, and she got it catastrophically wrong.

SF leadership went for a female specifically, that's where they went wrong, their candidate did not connect with voters at all, they should have gone with a much warmer personality regardless of gender, this missed an opportunity they created for themselves, it can't inspire confidence in leadership!

nuac

richiepurgas wrote: »

There was only one reporter in the room when the remarks were made and he has consistently said, even as late as about 3 years ago, that the words reported were entirely accurate.

Donegan was a loose cannon, later tried for shooting into the air over a travelers' encampment. The Casey of his time ?

That remark is grossly unfair to Casey

Silentcorner

Tell me how wrote: »

The candidate backed by FG/FF/LAB is looking like they came out with pretty much the same vote that they were polling a month ago.

Think those parties will be OK with that.

Let the 20% 'majority' fight it out with the others.

Wasn't Higgins on 68% at the last poll?

Tell me how

Silentcorner wrote:

Wasn't Higgins on 68% at the last poll?

Yes. But he was on 60% a month ago before the weakness of the rest was evident and before Peters comments.

FrancieBrady

Silentcorner wrote: »

He achieved 20% or thereabouts in a National Election, by spending circa €70,000 despite all the efforts of the Irish Establishment, he achieved this not because he is an articulate slick salesman, he identified an issue that has been ignored for too long...

SF, a party of massive resources and has a national infrastructure and has ambitions of government in the Republic failed miserably in this election, everyone, including Irish Media, the other candidates, FG/FF/Lab, bar Casey has come out of this more damaged than everyone else!

The polls had the incumbent at 70% the week before the election. All candidates were not going to do well in that scenario. One candidate found an issue (by accident apparently) that was always going to be a touchstone for a certain cohort or percentile of the electorate and he had no scruples broaching that subject, generalising the issues and targeting one community.
To my dying day I will have respect for Freeman, Ni Riada, Higgins, Duffy and even Gallagher, for not plumbing the depths with him.
As decent human beings they are head and shoulders above the man from Derry IMO.

EdgeCase

What I see in this is a group of political parties who opted to back the popular incumbent and try to avoid an election instead of giving people a choice.

The result was a candidate vacuum and that's pretty much what you're looking at in terms of the 20%.

It'll be interesting to see how the actual result compares tomorrow.

It's very straight forward if Michael D. gets more than 50% of the vote in the first count, as it's not actually proportional representation in a presidential election, rather it's using the mechanism of PR-STV voting to produce an 'instant runoff' (IRV) election

FrancieBrady

mikemac2 wrote: »

My god, so dramatic

Sure gwan, release your inner Michael D and give us a poem

Nothing dramatic intended. Just needs to be said that the rest of them stayed within the bounds of decency. One candidate lied, indulged in mis-truths, fell apart trying to defend his rabble rousing, manipulated the gullible voter (the weekend break) and his name was Peter Casey. And he got the vote which tallies with what I reckon the support for that carry on is, in the country.

Rhineshark

So Higgins started around 69% and ends up with 58% with the nearest contender at 20%. About expected bar Gallagher not being that second.

There was a strong element of piss-taking to the Casey ("for the craic") vote, Higgins was expected to have it in the bag, and the turnout was pretty low with only two candidates that anyone could muster a toss for. And Gallagher discovered that no-one much likes him even seven years later apparently.

Tell me how

Rhineshark wrote:

And Gallagher discovered that no-one much likes him even seven years later apparently.

Likes him wayyyyyy less than 7 years ago.

OwlsZat

The government jet is being readied for a boozy celebration weekend in Belfast!

FrancieBrady

Rhineshark wrote: »

So Higgins started around 69% and ends up with 58% with the nearest contender at 20%. About expected bar Gallagher not being that second.

There was a strong element of piss-taking to the Casey ("for the craic") vote, Higgins was expected to have it in the bag, and the turnout was pretty low with only two candidates that anyone could muster a toss for. And Gallagher discovered that no-one much likes him even seven years later apparently.

More surprised at the Gallagher vote than the Casey one tbh.

Dia1988

Silentcorner wrote: »

SF leadership went for a female specifically, that's where they went wrong, their candidate did not connect with voters at all, they should have gone with a much warmer personality regardless of gender, this missed an opportunity they created for themselves, it can't inspire confidence in leadership!

I'm actually really surprised Ni Riada isn't in double figures, she does great work in the EU for drawing down funds for Ireland and here No Bearla strike in the EU, that eventually had the Irish language recognised.

Her campaign seemed to focus on Northern Ireland even in the days up to the polling day which is a bit pointless as they can't vote. Look at her videos where mostly all of them include people from the North saying they'll vote for her BUT they can't! Bit pointless really canvassing up there, unless it's a Sinn Fein strategy.

Hurrache

Ronan|Raven wrote: »

What is astonishing about it? Shout populist ****e and watch people cling onto it?

I genuinely believe, and I've said this since he made those comments, is that what gave him the bounce (which I said would happen) wasn't the comments themselves, but the reaction to those comments in the media, print, TV, radio and social. People were being told they can't in any way agree with those sentiments, we as a country don't need someone like Casey coming here and saying this stuff.

It was a tone deaf knee jerk reaction, and I'm certain that the cack handed reaction will help someone hardcore right wing to now step into that void.

pixelburp

I'd agree with some of that; it also became incredibly tiresome how the narrative of debates got derailed by Caseys comments, and effectively got a pass on any questioning over his Irexit, NATO, IrishFacebook positions - alongside his tax status (while legal, was still disatisfying for a President to not pay any Irish tax). He managed to accidentally avoid scutiny, albeit by incurring questionably sincere wrath from the other candidates, which triggered those intent on projecting their own biases onto an ostensible spoofer.

Hopefully the next election will have a greater field of legitimate candidates, and not these stunt personas. Oh and maybe Gallagher again - he's now the New Dana

Hurrache

Jesus, if Gallagher ran again, especially if he does get well beaten by Casey, the bitterness would turn your milk sour through the TV right into your fridge.

Cork Boy 53

Hurrache wrote: »

Jesus, if Gallagher ran again, especially if he does get well beaten by Casey, the bitterness would turn your milk sour through the TV right into your fridge.

I imagine that Gallagher will now disappear into the same obscurity that he was in between 2011 and the start of this campaign.

seamus

Even with the low turnout it looks like MDH is going to take the largest number of first preference votes for any politician in the history of the state.

A resounding endorsement of his presidency.

splashuum

Is there a possibility MDH goes below 50% first preference votes tommorow ?

Cork Boy 53

splashuum wrote: »

Is there a possibility MDH goes below 50% first preference votes tommorow ?

Not if the exit poll is anywhere close to being accurate.

Rhineshark

splashuum wrote: »

Is there a possibility MDH goes below 50% first preference votes tommorow ?

If the exit poll was 51-52%, maybe but it has him at 58% with a 3% margin of error, it's very unlikely it'd be out by that much.

Exit polls in person don't tend to have the same issues that opinion polling has had, bar maybe undersampling some regions. I reckon tomorrow's results will be pretty close if not bang on.

Sorry, there were two, I'd forgotten the IT one. Pretty close agreement.

splinter65

seamus wrote: »

Even with the low turnout it looks like MDH is going to take the largest number of first preference votes for any politician in the history of the state.

A resounding endorsement of his presidency.

Less then 2/3 of the 1/4 of possible voters who actually hauled their arses to the ballot box voted for an almost doting champagne socialist of the most stereotypical kind simply because the other 5 were too awful to even consider.
A resounding endorsement? Sure! I’ll have 2 of whatever your having !

L1011

splashuum wrote: »

Is there a possibility MDH goes below 50% first preference votes tommorow ?

Both polling firms would have to have ballsed up to a credibility damaging level for that to happen.

Realistically anything above 40% and he'd be uncatchable anyway; Casey probably won't get many transfers.

Sycamore Tree

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Peter Casey has started the inevitable transition to right wing government. I can see him gaining in the polls now and giving more confidence to those who want to set up a right wing party in Ireland.

You were dead right!

Dia1988

I'm actually really surprised Ni Riada isn't in double figures, she does great work in the EU for drawing down funds for Ireland and here No Bearla strike in the EU, that eventually had the Irish language recognised.

Her campaign seemed to focus on Northern Ireland even in the days up to the polling day which is a bit pointless as they can't vote. Look at her videos where mostly all of them include people from the North saying they'll vote for her BUT they can't! Bit pointless really canvassing up there, unless it's a Sinn Fein strategy.

kazamo

seamus wrote: »

Even with the low turnout it looks like MDH is going to take the largest number of first preference votes for any politician in the history of the state.

A resounding endorsement of his presidency.

Or perhaps the low turnout reflects an indifference towards all candidates and the role itself.
If MDH gets 58% of a low turnout (less than 50% who actually voted) then less than a third of Irish people actually voted for him.Hardly a resounding endorsement.

An election that never needed to happen.

Rhineshark

Irish Times (Ipsos/MRBI)/RTE (RedC)
Peter Casey – 21%/20.7%
Gavin Duffy – 2%/2%
Joan Freeman – 6%/6.3%
Sean Gallagher – 7%/5.5%
Michael D Higgins – 56%/58.1%
Liadh Ní Riada – 8%/7.4^

IT: Yes 69-31%, RTE Yes 71-29%

Almost feel bad for Duffy. But he decidedly became Third Dragon Whathisname after Casey had his moment. Gallagher was already known and had "legitimacy"- at least until he decided to miss the debate in protest and turned out no-one missed him. Duffy didn't have a chance in just being generally coherent and not actively dislikable once Casey got his name known.

Same went for Ni Riada. Freeman added her own oddities that might have put people off.

blanch152

seamus wrote: »

Even with the low turnout it looks like MDH is going to take the largest number of first preference votes for any politician in the history of the state.

A resounding endorsement of his presidency.

Interestingly, Brian Lenihan with 694,000 odd votes is the highest vote-getter to date, even though he didn't win the election.

Turnout was 64%.

blanch152

Dia1988 wrote: »

I'm actually really surprised Ni Riada isn't in double figures, she does great work in the EU for drawing down funds for Ireland and here No Bearla strike in the EU, that eventually had the Irish language recognised.

Her campaign seemed to focus on Northern Ireland even in the days up to the polling day which is a bit pointless as they can't vote. Look at her videos where mostly all of them include people from the North saying they'll vote for her BUT they can't! Bit pointless really canvassing up there, unless it's a Sinn Fein strategy.

She is not in single figures, she is down at 7-8%, which is where Sinn Fein's real core vote is at.

They were deserted by those who wanted to vote for a protest candidate in Casey (apart from one or two on here who bizarrely voted Higgins despite his repeated anti-republican statements).