So Michael D IS running again!

L1011

blanch152 wrote: »

She is not in single figures, she is down at 7-8%,

7 and 8 are single figures.

FrancieBrady

FG FF and the Greens did not get a single vote in this election. Interesting though that some who defend those parties sat on the fence re: Casey, but defended and supported his views.
I wonder will Casey now be courted by FG, FF or the Greens? Can't see why he wouldn't be comfortable in any of those parties, if he wasn't targeting select communities as claimed.

Hurrache

It wasn't a general or local election, and if FF, the greens or FG did get a single vote there'd be serious questions to be answered.

However the SF representative does seem to be polling appallingly.

feargale

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG FF and the Greens did not get a single vote in this election. Interesting though that some who defend those parties sat on the fence re: Casey, but defended and supported his views.
I wonder will Casey now be courted by FG, FF or the Greens? Can't see why he wouldn't be comfortable in any of those parties, if he wasn't targeting select communities as claimed.

Nobody denied them a vote either. If Michael D. had taken a drubbing you would be saying it was one in the eye for FF and FG. You can't have it both ways, at least not in these post-Danny Morrison "armalite and ballot paper" days.

How were the Greens supposed to contest? They didn't have the numbers to nominate a candidate.

mattser

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG FF and the Greens did not get a single vote in this election. Interesting though that some who defend those parties sat on the fence re: Casey, but defended and supported his views.
I wonder will Casey now be courted by FG, FF or the Greens? Can't see why he wouldn't be comfortable in any of those parties, if he wasn't targeting select communities as claimed.

I thought you said you were going to bed.

Try_harder

https://twitter.com/hazechu/status/1055851961927503872

feargale

Dia1988 wrote: »

I'm actually really surprised Ni Riada isn't in double figures, she does great work in the EU for drawing down funds for Ireland and here No Bearla strike in the EU, that eventually had the Irish language recognised. .

The Irish language recognised in Europe, that should work bloody marvels for it :rolleyes:
One is reminded of a time when Irish people travelling in Europe were wont to speak the half dozen words they knew to give the impression that Ireland was Irish-speaking, or of John A. Murphy recounting how a certain sporting organisation, to give the impression that its programmes are in the Irish language, plasters their front cover with Irish while everything else is in English. But I suppose recognition in Europe goes down well with a few voters. If those responsible really cared about Irish they could have used that demand as a bargaining chip and for a fraction of the cost got something really useful, like an Irish-language daily newspaper or a few surgeons in Galway city fluent in the language.

Anyway it should impress SF's core vote, just like the expressed intent to hold a border poll without delay even though it is bound to fail and will only serve to drive the other side into an even more entrenched position. No matter. It's good for SF's electoral prospects, in the North if not in the South. :rolleyes:

gormdubhgorm

Try_harder wrote: »

Wonder who Gallagher will sue this time for his capitulation?

I am amazed he got so far the last time.
To me it is his calculating nature that puts me off.
Everything is overthought/stage managed and there is nothing natural about him.
Ironically if he was in America I think he would do very well.

gormdubhgorm

Fann Linn wrote: »

If I wasn't from Dublin I'd say he's almost, almost, like Jim Gavin.
But then again, Gavin is a winner.

I think the difference is Jim Gavin seems to have a genuine humble nature.
Whereas Gallagher's whole persona seems contrived.

I agree they are both adept at saying nothing.
It is a pity Jim Gavin did not run for President himself for the craic - then when he won tell everyone what a tough election it was and he learned a lot....

Zubeneschamali

I don't think there is anything to build on in Casey's vote - his own voters are denying they are right wing, anti-traveller, anti-welfare etc., they are just for fairness and free speech. Guess what - all existing parties are for fairness and free speech already.

Nice to see Gallagher humiliated. Freeman is down where Norris/Mitchell were last time - hopefully she did not spend too much money or damage her Charity brand. Duffy who cares - not even Duffy.

For me the interesting one is SF - half the 1st preferences they got last time. in an election which they caused on purpose. I expected them to do a lot better. It seems the anti-establishment protest vote deserted them this time, and their candidate was a lot less famous, but she was also less infamous and had no proxy bombing baggage. Didn't help. Hmmm.

Graniteville

Interesting that Casey seems to have got over 30% of the rural vote.

Guess where travellers cause the most grief?


Now if FF worked out a strategy that would mean equal treatment for travellers but no special treatment, they'll be onto a winner.

An Ciarraioch

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG FF and the Greens did not get a single vote in this election. Interesting though that some who defend those parties sat on the fence re: Casey, but defended and supported his views.
I wonder will Casey now be courted by FG, FF or the Greens? Can't see why he wouldn't be comfortable in any of those parties, if he wasn't targeting select communities as claimed.

Plenty of FG and FF councillors who speak similarly to him, but the Greens is an odd one - surely too left-wing and PC for him?

ancapailldorcha

Serious discussion only please. Posts deleted.

EdgeCase

I think that the massive lesson here for the political parties is that they have to contest the presidential election.

There was basically no campaign by FG, FF, Labour, the Greens, SocDems or even AAA. Nobody in mainstream politics wanted to spend money on the election. SF effectively triggered it by standing a candidate. The amount of effort put in by any of them was very small.

The major parties assumed Michael D. is a shoo-in, and didn't campaign. They're were hardly any posters, billboards or even much online spend.

Meanwhile, the independents filled the vacuum.

I think the failure to take the election seriously was an insult to the office of president. Either we have an elected president or we don't. You can't just usher the incumbent into another 7 years, popular and good at the job as they might be, we need the option of refreshing the position.

It's that apathy from the political parties that's fed the apathy from voters and the abysmal turn out.

I don't think Casey is really representative of some kind of rise of the get right. He's not far right. He's just a bit populist and he's had a bounce due to a very lackluster election with a tiny turnout and no engagement by the political parties.

I also think any attempt to lecture the electorate for not turning out would be utterly patronising. The parties didn't show up or take this seriously at all. So what did they expect?

I think all the major parties should be hanging their heads in shame for what they just did, or rather, did not do.

If you want to destroy the office of President and the work that has been done by Mary Robinson, Mary McAleese and Michael D since the early 90s on making the office relevant, well this is exactly how to go about it!

Alan_P

blanch152 wrote: »

Interestingly, Brian Lenihan with 694,000 odd votes is the highest vote-getter to date, even though he didn't win the election.

Turnout was 64%.

Every reference I can find online has MDH gettting 701,101 first preferences last time, finishing up with over a million after transfers. If they're accurate, how is Lenihan the highest vote-getter ?

Water John

There is a bigger margin of error in this exit poll than usual. The pollsters remained at the one polling booth. This lowered the accuracy. Why did that happen, cost?

Alan, first pref is always the common measure of what a candidate got. If a GE candidate got 6,000 votes but was eventually elected either having exceeded the quota or not having reached it after multiple counts, we say the candidate got 6,000 votes.

Beechwoodspark

Some apologist for traveller crimes on morning Ireland at the moment.

Disgusting to hear ppl apologising for criminality and anti social behaviour.

Loafing Oaf

EdgeCase wrote: »

I think that the massive lesson here for the political parties is that they have to contest the presidential election.
!

Do you think Sinn Fein have benefited from contesting the election?

Alan_P

Water John wrote: »

There is a bigger margin of error in this exit poll than usual. The pollsters remained at the one polling booth. This lowered the accuracy. Why did that happen, cost?

Alan, first pref is always the common measure of what a candidate got. If a GE candidate got 6,000 votes but was eventually elected either having exceeded the quota or not having reached it after multiple counts, we say the candidate got 6,000 votes.

Yes and last time MDH got 701,101 first preferences, which is more than Brian Lenihan's 694,484, so why is Lenihan the highest vote-getter ?

ancapailldorcha

Posts deleted.

EdgeCase

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Do you think Sinn Fein have benefited from contesting the election?

I think they've probably projected themselves as being a lot more centrist than some of the electorate would have assumed. Liadh Ní Riada is a very solid candidate. Whether that translated into SF's image improving, I don't know. The presidential election tends to disconnect candidates from parties, even if the party machine's useful behind them.

It certainly did them no harm in terms of their profile building in the Republic.

FrancieBrady

Great performance by Higgins in such a low turnout.
According to an analyst on Marian F there, FF voters switched from Gallagher to Casey. Which is interesting.
Good to see he doesn't seem prepared to accept that his traveller comments made the difference, it's a weak way of saying he isn't going to double down on them.

Beechwoodspark

Casey’s traveller comments recap

He disagrees with them being recognized as a ethnic minority.

Says they avoid tax and that house prices drop when travelers move onto an area.

Says they camp on other ppl’s land.

Says the Tipperary situation with travelers demanding stables with their new houses is ridiculous.

Quote:

He cited an ongoing dispute in Tipperary where six new homes are lying empty in a €1.7m development because families living on an unauthorised site nearby are refusing to move in until they get stables for horses.

“I mean how ridiculous have we become as a society where they are turning down beautiful, four-bedroom houses because there’ll blackmailing the county council into giving them stables for their horses.

“I’m sorry, there’s something seriously wrong with society when we’re at that stage,” Mr Casey said.

Nothing overly controversial there.

tayto lover

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Great performance by Higgins in such a low turnout.
According to an analyst on Marian F there, FF voters switched from Gallagher to Casey. Which is interesting.
Good to see he doesn't seem prepared to accept that his traveller comments made the difference, it's a weak way of saying he isn't going to double down on them.

Wonder why Rathkeale voters gave Casey 47 percent? Any ideas??

FrancieBrady

tayto lover wrote: »

Wonder why Rathkeale voters gave Casey 47 percent? Any ideas??

Because the traveller residents didn't vote. And there are problems with travellers, that I and others in the country recognise and have recognised?

tayto lover

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Because the traveller residents didn't vote. And there are problems with travellers, that I and others in the country recognise and have recognised?

Why is Mr. Collins not dealing with this issue?
Surely that's his job.

FrancieBrady

tayto lover wrote: »

Why is Mr. Collins not dealing with this issue?
Surely that's his job.

Who?

tayto lover

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who?

Mr. Pavee Point Collins. You know him.

FrancieBrady

tayto lover wrote: »

Mr. Pavee Point Collins. You know him.

Said long ago that travellers need better representation.

What is it you 'want done' by the way?

tayto lover

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Said long ago that travellers need better representation.

What is it you 'want done' by the way?

Pavee Point should be demanding that more children stay in mainstream education.
That the Crime rate be reduced and that travellers actually report other travellers who commit crime.
That young travellers refrain from arranged early marriages.
Cease with the fist fighting and the challenge videos.

In short do what the settled community does instead of going out of their way to be different. That would be a start.