Brexit discussion thread IV

So to cut through it all, what do people think will happen? Will we get a Backstop without a time limit, or will the EU give in to UK demands and insert some kind of limit?

Seems to me we've got firm allies in the EU on this issue, hopefully it's not all just optics.

I feel that it will go down to the wire, and that ultimately May will have enough numbers to jettison the DUP (who I'm sure she regrets ever getting in to bed with), if some Labour MPs vote with the Government in an effort to avoid a No Deal Brexit.

Great thread, providing brilliant commentary on events as they unfold...

Strazdas wrote: »

Jon Craig says on Sky News that these particular talks are at an end and will not resume......Raab already returning to London and will not be back in Brussels

If this is true, watch Sterling tomorrow morning...

In fairness to the EU they're not putting much pressure on us in terms of a time limit on the backstop.

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Brinkmanship possibly with Raab?

I doubt this is the end of it yet.

It seems May is going to have to make a major concession at the actual summit this week in order to stave off No Deal.....this is really going down to the wire. If the UK cannot concede, then a November summit is pointless. Crunch time has arrived.

I don't perceive Raab to be bluffing when he says he won't support the backstop in its current form. He's very much influenced by ERG types. I recall a few months back when he was appointed, it was noted that his Twitter feed was made up of die-hard Brexiteers. He's been quite strong in denouncing the backstop whenever I've heard him talk about it.

What I'm wondering is what happens if Raab does a David Davis and resigns? Can the UK government survive the resignation of the Brexit secretary at this late stage in the talks? Does May appoint Olly Robbins to the role who seems to be doing much of the work behind the scenes (and who many Brexiteers hate)? Could she step in and take on the role herself? I can't see how things can continue if Raab departs, which is probably the last roll of the dice for the Brexiteers who want to scupper a compromise.

Its no real surprise. The Brexit talks have been on this trajectory since the last UK general election.

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Brinkmanship possibly with Raab?

I doubt this is the end of it yet.

Agreed -- this is definitely not the end. For various reasons (*), it has to get bumpy over the next few days for a WA deal to be reached. Buckle up, turbulence ahead!

(*) See this tweet:
https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1051531699920805888

I think the country needs to get ready.

There probably won't be a deal now in my opinion.

catrionanic wrote: »

I still think a deal may be coming. We always knew all along that May would have to leave it so close to the wire that the Brexiteers wouldn't have time to torpedo things. I was sceptical that they would announce tonight of a deal being done, because it would give the ERG, DUP et al. too much time to kick up a fuss. Plus, all this posturing and drama and last-minute crisis palaver will add to the ruse of May pushing the EU to their absolute limits, and emerging from the jaws of Brussels at the eleventh hour with a hard-won deal under her belt. "Bloody difficult woman" and all that.

It isn't over yet.

Yep and call an election on that basis. She needs rid if the DUP but she also needs some sort of mandate from the people. No other way. She'll be 'all in' on Wednesday.

It must be near time for the EU to walk away from the negotiating table now. A year on and we're no further forward. No point in them wasting any more time or effort on May, she's clearly unable to deliver an outcome that will gain parliamentary approval.

The EU should simply now say that all avenues have been exhausted and all possible options are already on the table - the UK can advise which one they want to take up when they are ready, if any.*


*and then quietly make arrangements for a short turnaround on an Article 50 extension - but only on the basis that it would facilitate a general election or a second referendum to avoid a full crash out by the UK.

That the final difficulties would be hammered out at PM level wouldn't surprise me, even from a visual POV.

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I get a spidey feeling that there will be a deal, but the EU accept that for optics the UK have to be seen to have won concessions.

It is a game and that is all. I reckon this was all figured out ages ago.

The DUP will not figure in this, they might huff and puff but they have no real power. OK they can bring down the Government, but will they do that?

If they do, their so called power is gone forever anyway. IMV of course

The DUP have one shot only. And after Wednesday it won't matter if it hits or not. Election time.

lawred2 wrote: »

A no deal is going to an absolute disaster for us

The other option is to call the whole thing off. But that would mean somebody other than May in charge. I don't see the EU diluting the backstop. There would be no point and it would weaken the EU. May has pointed herself into a corner that she can't get out of and hasn't the strength to deal with the ERG and their fellow travellers.

Spanish Eyes wrote:

I get a spidey feeling that there will be a deal, but the EU accept that for optics the UK have to be seen to have won concessions.

The EU has not the slightest interest in making concessions to the UK. The EU has always helped member states in selling union-wide initiatives to their electorates. It has no reason to care how the UK government deals with its internal problems.

First Up wrote: »

The EU has not the slightest interest in making concessions to the UK. The EU has always helped member states in selling union-wide initiatives to their electorates. It has no reason to care how the UK government deals with its internal problems.

Read my post again. I did not say that the EU would make concessions, but rather the optics of concessions would be there.