Brexit discussion thread IV

A Dub in Glasgo

20silkcut wrote: »

The mandate for brexit still seems pretty strong to me. There is no sign of any big anti brexit groundswell in Britain. No sign of any significant political players emerging to weaken or change the GB stance on leaving. It’s telling that the most significant new movement in Britain in recent times has been leave means leave.

The DUP lines are “blood red”

How red are the IRL/EU lines?
Who looks the strongest ?

The mandate for Brexit is based on a very high house of cards and has been for ages

The 'blood red' lines rubbish from the DUP is actually quite offensive given the history and could be viewed as a threat

On your last point, the UK is in the far far weaker position therefore the EU are in a far far stronger position. anyone otherthan a Brexiteer can see this

murphaph

20silkcut wrote: »

Sinn Fein ???

Should re-phrase to say that unionist desire to remain close to the UK is stronger than Irish desire to maintain a soft border the GFA etc etc.
The current soft border is the closest we have to Irish unity since 1922.
Clearly the unionists are far more passionate on their stance than Irish people especially in the south are about the current soft border.
I’m sure there are die hard s in the border regions who would salivate at the future prospect of attacking isolated border posts. And I’m sure there are die hard unionists who would equally salivate at the return of the British army to defend loyal ulster.


Most people I talk to down here in the south are far more worried about the east-west situation.

I'm pretty agnostic on unity as I'm sure the more republican posters here can testify but maintaining the spirit of the GFA including a soft border would be too of my list of priorities. The British (mostly English) people have gone crazy with Brexit. We have to look beyond them and further develop the markets just beyond them in our European Union.

Brexit doesn't get to sh1t all over the GFA.

20silkcut

First Up wrote: »

The EU by a country mile.

Economically yes but both Britain and the dup seem hell bent on economic suicide.

Call me Al

20silkcut wrote: »

Economically yes but both Britain and the dup seem hell bent on economic suicide.

Not really.
Well, in the case of Britain, TM and her crew have to talk the talk like that of course. But they really have done no practical preparations to prepare for that instance. Those they have done are really just what has been put together at the last minute. Faisal even talks about this in the earlier Sky clip linked here earlier.
But the DUP? well maybe they are. But it remains to be seen if they will be given the keys to the ignition so to speak. I think they've likely done themselves a lot of damage with moderate Unionists in the 6 counties.

First Up

20silkcut wrote:

Economically yes but both Britain and the dup seem hell bent on economic suicide.

You asked who looked the stronger. Where does "but" come in?

Charles Babbage

murphaph wrote: »

Personally I expect the UK economy to take a hammer blow from Brexit. In this event then it would be NI's ability to trade with the EU that it would fall back on.

As time goes on the Barnett money will simply be reduced as the entire UK economy stalls and money is simply not available.

NI will then be forced to the private sector and to exporting to the EU and to countries with which the EU has FTAs (the EU is decades ahead of the UK in this respect).

All of this combined would see the NI economy transformed into something resembling the economy of the south, at which point the cost of unification becomes moot.

That's one theory anyway. I do believe it is more likely that unification will come this way than any other to be honest and I'd be happy to see things working out like that. It's certainly a better prospect than the NI economy imploding behind a hard land border.

Exactly. The present ideas will give NI will have a slight advantage for private sector business at a time when public funding in the UK is unlikely to be plentiful and may be diverted to other areas affected by Brexit.



This would remove any pressure for urgent constitutional change and over time would greatly reduce any economic issues in a unification discussion.



The DUP have adopted a scorched earth policy. This is fine for their ultras, but there is a large middle chunk of the NI population for whom the union suits at present but who have zero interest in being in the front line of the Brexit dogma wars.

20silkcut

First Up wrote: »

You asked who looked the stronger. Where does "but" come in?

I’m just saying strength seems useless when two of the protagonists have a gun to their own heads.

First Up

20silkcut wrote:

I’m just saying strength seems useless when two of the protagonists have a gun to their own heads.

OK. I thought your earlier post implied you thought the UK was in the stronger position.

Kermit.de.frog

The DUP just want to say "no" but they never provide any practical compromise or solution.

I think May is going dump them in the coming days. The Times reporting May's circle talking to party about a minority government and that it is viable.

trellheim

Reminder I posted earlier

or reference : again

Tories : 315
Labour : 257
SNP : 35
Lib Dem 12
DUP 10
Independent 8
SF : 7
Plaid 4
Green 1
Speaker 1

Total 650

(Tories+DUP) 325 (all bar SF and the speaker ) 317

DUP Abstaining on vote of no confidence 315 to 317 so got lose.

Even if the speaker votes with the Govt it will be 316 to 317 . Although they might survive (e.g Kate Hoey on Brexit on some votes ) it would be legislative paralysis (much like our own at the moment)

Kermit.de.frog

It's a general election then.

The reality is the DUP red line means she can't get a deal with the EU. In order to obtain that agreement she needs to offload the DUP.

Water John

So there are 8 Ind, these incl Sylvia Herman. Who else who may support the Govn't?
You would need a convergence of interests to bring down the Govn't.

kuro68k

SF should take up their seats for this one issue. It affects Ireland, it will affect a future united Ireland, and might bring us closer to a border poll.

trellheim

As I said a few pages back they do not need to take them, they only need to threaten to. This would force the DUP back into line especially if SF threatened to vote with the Tories ( Yes I know its silly but if the alternative is Hard brexit ) One way or another the Irish Question continues to rumble around

Leroy42

So people think a solution to the hold that the DUP have over HMG is for SF to take up their seats?

Have you not been paying attention to Brexit? Can you imagine if a group of Irish politicians started trying to tell the UK want to do. SF trying to twart the will of the people. The outrage from the likes of the Express would be massive.

The likes of JRM, Hoey, Johnson would be apologetic.

keane2097

It's very obvious that Sinn Fein arriving over to Westminster to swing a crucial Brexit vote would cause a shift in the opposite direction from any wavering MPs.

There are probably 50 Conservatives who would change their vote rather than allow that to happen.

leche solara

Leroy42 wrote: »

The likes of JRM, Hoey, Johnson would be apologetic.

Apoplectic even

trellheim

Yes it would be all kinds of strange . But SF MPs are UK MPs , even though they are Irish, same as the DUP MPs, but yes it would force them back into line.

A Dub in Glasgo

kuro68k wrote: »

SF should take up their seats for this one issue. It affects Ireland, it will affect a future united Ireland, and might bring us closer to a border poll.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=108321608&postcount=9542

The Pheasant2

How are people still suggesting this as if it's some kind of solution?

It's not going to happen.

kuro68k

Shear desperation as my country is destroyed before my eyes.

Can you believe that the UK used to be an almost nice place. We were making so much progress.

An Claidheamh

kuro68k wrote: »

SF should take up their seats for this one issue. It affects Ireland, it will affect a future united Ireland, and might bring us closer to a border poll.

Well if they didn't take their seats, it would more likely lead to a united Ireland.

Britain's sinking, this isn't Sinn Féin's fault.

An Claidheamh

keane2097 wrote: »

It's very obvious that Sinn Fein arriving over to Westminster to swing a crucial Brexit vote would cause a shift in the opposite direction from any wavering MPs.

There are probably 50 Conservatives who would change their vote rather than allow that to happen.

And allow FFG to blame the Shinners for their inability to enforce the backstop.

Hermy

Leroy42 wrote: »

...Can you imagine if a group of Irish politicians started trying to tell the UK want to do...

Is that not already happening?



By the way, can I just say a wee hats off for a great thread. I don't normally read much beyond the headlines but not so with Brexit, and the thread has provided some very informed and informative comment on everything to do with it.

I don't have much to add to the debate myself other than to say I'm still baffled by the eagerness with which so many in the UK are still embracing Brexit when it seems clear that there's so little to be gained by it and so much to be lost.

Lastly, re lad on Twitter who was making all sorts of claims about British inventiveness - nobody invented Penicillin, it was discovered.:)

Kermit.de.frog

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpaiUtDXgAAH6pL.jpg:large


They need to get rid of these fruitcakes.


So Barnier was "hostile" to her?...that's due to their absurd "no, no, no" stance.

Water John

Those DUP politicians are very sensitive creatures.

Imreoir2

Arlene Foster: ‘EU spin on offer suggested NI would have best of both worlds. That was a lie. We would not’

I believe that the Prime Minister is in her own beliefs a committed unionist. However, she should learn from her previous female predecessor, Margaret Thatcher. Despite her unionist convictions, others persuaded Thatcher to sign the Anglo-Irish Agreement. She later deeply regretted the choice she had made. However, we do not want nor need the regrets of another Prime Minister. We want the right choices made.

The long awaited showdown between the DUP and the UK government looks set to conclude in the near future. I think May is willing to do a deal on the EU's terms, but can she get it through the commons without the DUP?

Kermit.de.frog

The knives are out for her from her Brexiteer colleagues if tomorrow's headlines are anything to go by.

listermint

Meanwhile EU citizens living working owning property and having families in the UK are being contacted and asked to 'apply' to normalise their residency at a cost of 65 sterling and no guarantees.


So what do they do with their kids and their property and their job I'd they are not normalised.

Kermit.de.frog

The knives are out for her from her Brexiteer colleagues if tomorrow's paper headlines are anything to go by.