Brexit discussion thread IV

Sam Russell

I think the Brexit ship is at the 'Lloyds Open Form' (LOF) point of the negotiations in the salvage operation. The Brexit ship is stricken, and drifting towards the rocks, and the salvage tug is racing to the scene, but will only attempt salvage on the terms of the LOF. The stricken Brexit ship will either founder with total loss, or accept a near total loss by accepting LOF. The ship has no real choice, as the salvage tug owners keep reminding them that they are drifting closer to the rocks and need urgent help that only their tug can give them.

The EU are now at the stage of 'Sign here, here and here, I am afraid there is no other offer available to you!'.

The UK are at the point of 'Do we sign and accept a Brexit in name only, or accept total chaos and probable loss of Brexit, the 'United' bit of the United Kingdom, and political oblivion?' Tough choice.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting developments in the Channel Islands, where it appears Jersey and Guernsey asked whether France could negotiate on their behalf with Brussels:

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2018/10/11/brexit-islands-asked-if-france-would-be-able-to-act-for-them/

Could we see either or both declare independence if ultimately unhappy with the final Brexit deal?

judeboy101

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting developments in the Channel Islands, where it appears Jersey and Guernsey asked whether France could negotiate on their behalf with Brussels:

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2018/10/11/brexit-islands-asked-if-france-would-be-able-to-act-for-them/

Could we see either or both declare independence if ultimately unhappy with the final Brexit deal?

Aren't they owned by privately by the monarch?

An Ciarraioch

judeboy101 wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting developments in the Channel Islands, where it appears Jersey and Guernsey asked whether France could negotiate on their behalf with Brussels:

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2018/10/11/brexit-islands-asked-if-france-would-be-able-to-act-for-them/

Could we see either or both declare independence if ultimately unhappy with the final Brexit deal?

Aren't they owned by privately by the monarch?

Crown Dependencies, but internally self-governing.

Kermit.de.frog

All EU ambassadors summoned to Brussels for 16:30...

Somethings happening

CZ 453

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All EU ambassadors summoned to Brussels for 16:30...

Somethings happening

What's the source on this? Thanks

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All EU ambassadors summoned to Brussels for 16:30...

Somethings happening

The odd aspect about this is that the Barnier-Raab talks are expected to go on well past midnight.

BonnieSituation

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All EU ambassadors summoned to Brussels for 16:30...

Somethings happening

It wouldn't kill ya to throw up a link every so often.

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All EU ambassadors summoned to Brussels for 16:30...

Somethings happening

The odd aspect about this is that the Barnier-Raab talks are expected to go on well past midnight.

CZ 453 wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All EU ambassadors summoned to Brussels for 16:30...

Somethings happening

What's the source on this? Thanks

Politico EU:

[TWEET]

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1051489123180191752[/TWEET]

Kermit.de.frog

CZ 453 wrote: »

What's the source on this? Thanks

Reuters

Nothing more to add yet. Could be a deal is agreed. This could also be a no deal situation too.

No one knows

Lots of speculation.

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All EU ambassadors summoned to Brussels for 16:30...

Somethings happening

The odd aspect about this is that the Barnier-Raab talks are expected to go on well past midnight.

CZ 453 wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All EU ambassadors summoned to Brussels for 16:30...

Somethings happening

What's the source on this? Thanks

Politico EU:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1051489123180191752

Nody

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All EU ambassadors summoned to Brussels for 16:30...

Somethings happening

Well if the UK newspapers headlines about a deal being agreed I'd guess that's the topic before it's announced offically on Monday.

Scoondal

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting developments in the Channel Islands, where it appears Jersey and Guernsey asked whether France could negotiate on their behalf with Brussels:

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2018/10/11/brexit-islands-asked-if-france-would-be-able-to-act-for-them/

Could we see either or both declare independence if ultimately unhappy with the final Brexit deal?

The Channel Islands are not part of EU but have signed up to EEA status. So UK can leave customs and single market and it seems that will drag CI out of EEA status.
The CI are a bit confusing to me. They did not vote on Brexit, but if UK leaves EU, then CI can't be part of the EEA single market and customs union.

Even Jersey and Guernsey have different government. Guernsey government is called "the states of Guernsey" which includes Alderney. I am open to correction on all this.

Can someone clarify ?

But that's a great link.

Kermit.de.frog

Deal is done at negotiator level but could yet be blocked by Tory nutter wing or the fundamentalist DUP.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-divorce-deal-reached/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Should see details leaked at any time!

Scoondal

Ireland needs to see oppurtunity here.
We devlelop Rosslare, Waterford and continue with Port of Cork's plans. Direct shipping to E.U. countries. Just like the old days when Irish trade was mostly to France, Spain and Portugal.
Let's forget about U.K..

trellheim

Deals need to be ratified by EUCO and EUParl and all 28 nations too. But the big question is does TM have the numbers for staying in , there's a fair number will call it BRINO and be more or less correct. Suspect several rattles being thrown out of prams and not just the old reliables doing so either.

Edit : Faisal Islam had some lovely tweets about Quantum Brexit ( when is a backstop without a time limit a time limited backstop ? ) and I'd say this will be some element of tomfoolery about this.

Lemming

20silkcut wrote: »

Do you honestly think that to be the case?
It’s not exactly easy to hide tens of thousands people marching down a street in this day and age with social media and smart phones etc.

It has proven exceptionally easy to hide tens of thousands of people marching down a street for the BBC et al. silkcut. I know because I was at one of these marches. Then about three days later the likes of the BBC reported in a sort of "oh, by the way, a handful of protesters turned up, blah blah blah" to simply suppress the news by stacking it behind the several other news stories that happened since. Several other marches (under the same banner groups) occurred on the same day in different cities with similar head counts ranging in the tens of thousands. Did you hear a peep about any of it?

Incidentally from what I recall - and certainly from former friends with ties to British agriculture - the farmers union was very much gung-ho for brexit coming up to the vote. So to find out that a farmers periodical is at best indifferent doesn't surprise me in the slightest.

An Ciarraioch

Scoondal wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting developments in the Channel Islands, where it appears Jersey and Guernsey asked whether France could negotiate on their behalf with Brussels:

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2018/10/11/brexit-islands-asked-if-france-would-be-able-to-act-for-them/

Could we see either or both declare independence if ultimately unhappy with the final Brexit deal?

The Channel Islands are not part of EU but have signed up to EEA status. So UK can leave customs and single market and it seems that will drag CI out of EEA status.
The CI are a bit confusing to me. They did not vote on Brexit, but if UK leaves EU, then CI can't be part of the EEA single market and customs union.

Even Jersey and Guernsey have different government. Guernsey government is called "the states of Guernsey" which includes Alderney. I am open to correction on all this.

Can someone clarify ?

But that's a great link.

You're correct on all counts - Jersey and Guernsey are two separate, autonomous governments, and Sark also comes under Guernsey administration. The agreement between the EU and the Channel Islands was part of the UK Accession Treaty in 1972, and also covers the Isle of Man, but no reports that I can see on how the Manx are responding to Brexit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_relations_of_Jersey#Relations_with_the_European_Union

trellheim

Right here comes the BS

LONDON (Reuters) - British health minister Matt Hancock said on Sunday any backstop arrangement to prevent a hard border with Ireland following Brexit would be temporary, adding there were different ways to make something “credibly time-limited”.

... see what I was saying about Quantum Brexit ?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-hancock/any-northern-irish-backstop-will-be-temporary-uk-health-minister-idUSKCN1MO0D0?il=0

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s main opposition Labour Party will not vote for a Brexit deal that offers little more than a “bridge to nowhere”, its foreign policy spokeswoman said on Sunday, increasing pressure on Prime Minister Theresa May.

They're not wrong

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-labour/britains-labour-will-not-vote-for-blind-brexit-idUSKCN1MO0C5?il=0

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Ambassadors for 27 member states of the European Union have been summoned to a meeting on Brexit at 1630 GMT in Brussels, diplomatic sources said on Sunday.

The meeting will involve representatives for the EU’s member states excluding Britain.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-ambassadors/eu-ambassadors-summoned-to-brexit-meeting-diplomatic-sources-idUSKCN1MO0LI?il=0

27 ambassadors will start leaking immediately so we will know fairly quickly.

Kermit.de.frog

DUP in 3..2..1...

https://twitter.com/alexebarker/status/1051501263962218496

BloodyBill

Scoondal wrote: »

Ireland needs to see oppurtunity here.
We devlelop Rosslare, Waterford and continue with Port of Cork's plans. Direct shipping to E.U. countries. Just like the old days when Irish trade was mostly to France, Spain and Portugal.
Let's forget about U.K..

Ridiculous. By the old days I presume you mean pre 14th century? By all means develope the ports and get more shipping going straight to Europe but the UK will always dominate our exports so a more subtle approach is preferable.
If there's a deal done today it 'll never get through parliament. There isn't a hope especially if Northern Ireland is to be sacrificed to appease Europe. I can only see a no deal Brexit

Kermit.de.frog

I assume you mean the UK dominates our transit for exports?


The UK is Ireland's 3rd largest trading partner behind the US and RofEU

Trade routes to continent likely to diversify significantly from landbridge after Brexit.

judeboy101

My fear is an unspecified time limit or worst yet no time limit but the 'no' bit not written into law.

Scoondal

Five months left.
If any other country wishes to leave EU they should also. Only countries that are committed to EU principles should be allowed to be a member of EU.

Calina

Scoondal wrote: »

Five months left.
If any other country wishes to leave EU they should also. Only countries that are committed to EU principles should be allowed to be a member of EU.

Who did you have in mind as a candidate out of interest?

FrancieBrady

Back to the drawing board?

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1051529045505126405

An Ciarraioch

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Back to the drawing board?

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1051529045505126405

According to the Guardian, it all collapsed because the UK still wants a time limit to the backstop - so literally where we left off in December again!

lawred2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

According to the Guardian, it all collapsed because the UK still wants a time limit to the backstop - so literally where we left off in December again!

Cakeists want cake

Rhineshark

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

According to the Guardian, it all collapsed because the UK still wants a time limit to the backstop - so literally where we left off in December again!

At least they're not pretending to pass it again.

Sam Russell

According to Guardian, RAAB now returning to London instead of staying over in Brussels.

End game.

Also Scottish Consrvatives cutting up- Davidson threatening to resign if NI given sparate status.

.