The Sub 4 Support Thread

ariana`

tHE vAGGABOND wrote: »

Yea it only took in 3 months or so. I think some of the times it predicts for shorter are way off - but I dunno, maybe under rate myself

Something to aim for after DCM perhaps

ReeReeG

ariana` wrote: »

Wow i'm kind of in shock, it's telling me 3:53:05. The Run Fast Coach calc gives me 3:54 based on my HM time. They're very close and both a 10 mins faster than i've been considering aiming for :eek:

Em it's telling me about 15 mins slower than I had thought to aim for... 4.06 ... eeek have I been kidding myself (other calculators say 3.43ish though so maybe I will pretend I never saw this one)

smashiner

Wow the interweb just said that I can do this thing in 3:49, so it must be true! Plus I plan to watch 'Rocky 111' a few times before the DCM too, so that will shave off at least another few minutes

I think that I am going to go with the 1:58/59 for halfway and be comfortable to 20 miles and see what (if anything) is left in the tank. Could be a 3:59 or a 4:09 finish.....

What I do know is that I have trained more for this DCM than any other DCM (third one for me) and if the running Gods are kind to me on the day (weather/wind/niggles/colds etc) I am going to have a good go at sub 4 this year and whatever result I get will be the absolute best that I can do....gonna leave it all out on the track....no regrets....and hopefully I will be able to hang on to the Sub 4 target....:cool:

Itziger

ariana` wrote: »

Wow i'm kind of in shock, it's telling me 3:53:05. The Run Fast Coach calc gives me 3:54 based on my HM time. They're very close and both a 10 mins faster than i've been considering aiming for :eek:

You were aiming for, or considering aiming for, a 4.04? That's a kinda underwhelming target. Jeez, 3.59 surely, even if you think it's a bit of an ask.

The Black Oil

Registered for that RunAnalyze site - no sign of the account confirmation email at all, not in spam, either.

ariana`

Itziger wrote: »

You were aiming for, or considering aiming for, a 4.04? That's a kinda underwhelming target. Jeez, 3.59 surely, even if you think it's a bit of an ask.

I guess i'm just an underwhelming kind of gal :P

I have a 1:52:30 HM, so the age old formula of twice your HM + 20 mins gives me 4:05.

Itziger

ariana` wrote: »

I guess i'm just an underwhelming kind of gal :P

I have a 1:52:30 HM, so the age old formula of twice your HM + 20 mins gives me 4:05.

Yeah, that's fair enough, but you're not really targeting a 4.04 though (or are you?)

That's an 'age old' formula?

The Black Oil

OK. Got sorted and uploaded the data. Where's the predictor bit? I only have proper HRM for the last 3 weeks or so, mind.

ariana`

Itziger wrote: »

Yeah, that's fair enough, but you're not really targeting a 4.04 though (or are you?)

That's an 'age old' formula?

At this point in time i honestly believe i am targeting 4:04/4:05 but anything is still possible in the next 2 weeks, I've already gone from a 4:15 to 4:10 and then to 4:05 over the course of this training block :cool: Maybe i need to be a bit braver

The Black Oil wrote: »

OK. Got sorted and uploaded the data. Where's the predictor bit? I only have proper HRM for the last 3 weeks or so, mind.

If you scroll down there's a box entitled Prognosis!

The Black Oil

ariana` wrote: »

If you scroll down there's a box entitled Prognosis!

Prognosis Calculator?

I think it's telling me 3:21. Eh, yeah right.

ewc78

ariana` wrote: »

That sounds very promising. Were you able to import the last 6 months from Garmin or did you just import a few weeks?

You can only import 3 months back but it then records everything from then on. Like I said I've been using it for 6 months so it has a lot of data on me, I would guess the more data they have the better the predictors etc will be.
Hey like I said as with any of these calculators its not going to be exact but I like it.
The Marathon shape calculation is at 93% for me now. I'm sure this takes into account the weekly milage and length of long runs to come up with the figure it gives.
The time predictors then are based on heart rate and pace at that heart rate and length of run and all the other bits of data combined.
I'm a bit of a nerd when it comes to this kind of data and stats so that's why I like it.
I'm not foolish enough to think just because it predicts one thing doesn't mean I'm going to get that time without putting in the effort.

roosterman71

I tried the Runalyze thingy there. Giving me a 3:56 marathon, and my Marathon Shape is 44% :eek:

It seems to have imported everything I have from Garmin for me so it has all the data of my recent training, etc. 44% seems very low then

PCX

The prediction for me is 4:11:57 for full and 1:39:16 for half. So its prediction is half marathon x2 plus 52 minutes. It thinks I will hit the wall BIG TIME

For what its worth I ran a marathon last month in 3:58.

Murph_D

Don’t get caught up on what some calculator you just discovered says, based on data that might be bad (the HR data my Garmin records, for instance, is just plain wrong half the time, so Garmin’s estimate of my VO2Max is also wrong, as well as the time predictions it derives from that.

I’d say trust what you’ve been doing up til now. You’ve been training to a certain MP and the race is only two weeks away. No need for drastic change, and if you’ve done long MP runs fairly comfortably that means the MP you’ve trained to is realistic. Go for it!

DubOnHoliday

That runalyze yoke said I’m 62% marathon ready.... here was me thinking I was at least 63%. Interesting tool but that’s all, trust the training.

bucketybuck

It tells me that I'm 177% ready! And I was going for sub 4 but in the prognosis calculator, 3 of the models says I should be going for 3.30-3.40!

Definitely a confidence booster that one! Think I stick to the sub 4 goal though!

tbukela

Interesting calculator on RUNALYZE, it gave me a marathon shape figure of 89% and predicted times of between 3:20 -3:35.

By comparison McMillan is showing 3:21, Run Fast Coach Calc is 3:19 & Hanson Race equivalency is also 3:19.

All of the calculators are slightly slower up to 10 miles. None of them will run the marathon for me however.

imknackered

Looking for some guidance on what time to go for in the marathon.

I did recent half marathon in 1:31 and most of my long runs (2x33k & 2x30k) around the 5min-5:10min kms.

I had been thinking of running for a 3:30 since i signed up for it but now im wondering if that is too safe a target and maybe i should go with the 3:20 pacers. This is my 3rd marathon, 2011 i did 4:14 but was hugely under-trained and died after 20miles, 2013 i did a 3:44 had a bit of a hamstring tighness so ran mostly within myself and had a bit left in the tank at the end.

Any input welcome!!!

RayCun

How many miles a week are you running? What does a typical week include?

imknackered

RayCun wrote: »

How many miles a week are you running? What does a typical week include?

Lately ive been at about 60k a week over 3 runs:

1 speed session 10-13k
1 Tempo run about 16-18k
1 Long run up to 33k

Also do a cycle most weeks for cross training

RayCun

imknackered wrote: »

Lately ive been at about 60k a week over 3 runs:

1 speed session 10-13k
1 Tempo run about 16-18k
1 Long run up to 33k

Also do a cycle most weeks for cross training

That's kind of weird training.
But 3.20 looks achievable.

Murph_D

imknackered wrote: »

Lately ive been at about 60k a week over 3 runs:

1 speed session 10-13k
1 Tempo run about 16-18k
1 Long run up to 33k

Also do a cycle most weeks for cross training

Your half suggests you’re in 3:20ish shape alright but I’d be worried about possible lack of endurance based on training paces - ie all LRs at steady pace, possibly meaning you are not adapting properly for the distance. No easy LRs?

imknackered

RayCun wrote: »

That's kind of weird training.
But 3.20 looks achievable.

Thanks Ray, its probably unique alright.
Thanks for the advice, would be awesome to do a 3:20 so i might just give it a go

imknackered

Murph_D wrote: »

Yournf suggests you’re in 3:20ish shape alright but I’d be worried about possible lack of endurance based on training paces - ie all LRs at steady pace, possibly meaning you are not adapting properly for the distance. No easy LRs?

Last 33k was about 5:05-5:10 for 26k and then 4:30ish for the last 5k or so with a cool down at the end

skyblue46

Murph_D wrote: »

Yournf suggests you’re in 3:20ish shape alright but I’d be worried about possible lack of endurance based on training paces - ie all LRs at steady pace, possibly meaning you are not adapting properly for the distance. No easy LRs?

The guy obviously has huge potential. My efforts to encourage easy runs fell on deaf ears. No doubt if that was incorporated we could be looking at 3:10. But LSRs at 3:35 MP, speed session and tempo does leave the plan short on endurance building training.

imknackered

skyblue46 wrote: »

The guy obviously has huge potential. My efforts to encourage easy runs fell on deaf ears. No doubt if that was incorporated we could be looking at 3:10. But LSRs at 3:35 MP, speed session and tempo does leave the plan short on endurance building training.

I know my lsr pace isn’t as slow as it should be but I found that pace to be mostly quite comfortable and had a stronger last few km’s In most of my long runs

Due to a long history of joint problems I find it difficult to run more than 3 times a week and I picked those 3 runs to give me a bit of balance to the training

Van.Bosch

imknackered wrote: »

Looking for some guidance on what time to go for in the marathon.

I did recent half marathon in 1:31 and most of my long runs (2x33k & 2x30k) around the 5min-5:10min kms.

I had been thinking of running for a 3:30 since i signed up for it but now im wondering if that is too safe a target and maybe i should go with the 3:20 pacers. This is my 3rd marathon, 2011 i did 4:14 but was hugely under-trained and died after 20miles, 2013 i did a 3:44 had a bit of a hamstring tighness so ran mostly within myself and had a bit left in the tank at the end.

Any input welcome!!!

You don’t have to aim for a fixed number! So maybe somewhere in between would suit you best, if you’re feeling strong at 37/38 k, push on.

imknackered

Van.Bosch wrote: »

You don’t have to aim for a fixed number! So maybe somewhere in between would suit you best, if you’re feeling strong at 37/38 k, push on.

Very True, if i was aiming towards 3:20 i was gonna hang out with the pacers but after sleeping on it last night i'm thinking of going out at around 4:55 pace for the first half and seeing if i can pick it up from then (hopefully with a strong finish!!)

boardtc

ewc78 wrote: »

Speaking of race predictors and the like. I've been using a website called Runalzye for the past 6 months....
https://runalyze.com

I've been looking at Runalyze for the last few days. It's very interesting and worth keeping an eye on if you like data analytic tools. It has a full sync with Garmin Connect (only 18 months of data for me since I got the watch) which took me 2 goes but worked great in the end. I was able to use tapiriik.com to pull other pre-Garmin data into Dropbox and got it all loaded up. The interface takes a bit of getting used to but it's all there. In order to get the prognosis working correctly you need to edit the different workouts to mark them as races - see the help for more info, you also can enter the official time etc, see the video of how to do this.

After all this, it gives me the prediction of 4:06:56. Not what I want to hear of course!

DubOnHoliday

Any boardsies pacing the 3:40 group?