Cold: Snow/Ice - Sat 17th March Onward - READ MOD NOTE POST #1

Kermit.de.frog

munsterlegend wrote: »

Gerry not too concerned anyway re any snow amounts in the latest forecast.

A bit of snow doesn't frighten Gerry :cool:

JanuarySnowstor

I wouldn't rule out a red warning locally over the weekend. Not a certainty but possible

Gerrys forecast sums up Gerry

munsterlegend

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A bit of snow doesn't frighten Gerry :cool:

I don't understand why he is so adamant. Can he not just say stay tuned to forecasts?

esposito

munsterlegend wrote: »

I don't understand why he is so adamant. Can he not just say stay tuned to forecasts?

Gerry’s been on the last 3 days so who’s up tomorrow. Evelyn, Siobhan, Joanna and maybe even Jean will ramp for sure.

dacogawa

munsterlegend wrote: »

I don't understand why he is so adamant. Can he not just say stay tuned to forecasts?

I'd say they are damn scared to say anything that might effect the tourism industry, we all remember Donegal...

wakka12

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

'ME' aka Met Eireann, not MT lol

Oh haha I spend too much time on this forum

sdanseo

wakka12 wrote: »

Oh haha I spend too much time on this forum

Wouldn't happen if people abbreviated it correctly with the fada

MÉ

Anyway, Gerry should take a look at this:

M.T. Cranium

I think some snow will develop, just wondering what various people here think about the time window aspect of this, and somewhat marginal looking uppers on 12z ECM (as compared with other guidance).

We are dealing with a relatively short window of opportunity (would say 5 p.m. Saturday to 9 p.m. Sunday before higher pressure squelches the sea effect) and some possible mixing in streamer precip type.

OTOH we have the greater convective potential of a March daytime streamer production and a shorter North Sea crossing.

Will be updating the boards forecast in about 30 mins if anyone would like to offer thoughts before then much appreciated.

Villain

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think some snow will develop, just wondering what various people here think about the time window aspect of this, and somewhat marginal looking uppers on 12z ECM (as compared with other guidance).

We are dealing with a relatively short window of opportunity (would say 5 p.m. Saturday to 9 p.m. Sunday before higher pressure squelches the sea effect) and some possible mixing in streamer precip type.

OTOH we have the greater convective potential of a March daytime streamer production and a shorter North Sea crossing.

Will be updating the boards forecast in about 30 mins if anyone would like to offer thoughts before then much appreciated.

All about wind direction for my location, a NE with nice long fetch can deliver some beefy streamers here, though my experience of them is more related to winter months. It will be very interesting to see how streamers develop and where they track during this event.

Cork Boy 53

munsterlegend wrote: »

Gerry not too concerned anyway re any snow amounts in the latest forecast.

I missed it. Did he mention sleet?

SleetAndSnow

The latest ECM is.. beautiful

Pangea

Very detailed forecast again by Met UK https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155663010789209/

sdanseo

MÉ and even a few around boards would be making a bigger deal of this had it not been for the massive event two weeks ago.

It may be March but this is still a very significant easterly and will produce heavy snow in places. Many people predicted it'd all be gone in 24hrs after Emma and there's still places with a foot of the stuff.

trixiebust

And people say global warming isn't real...

Gaoth Laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think some snow will develop, just wondering what various people here think about the time window aspect of this, and somewhat marginal looking uppers on 12z ECM (as compared with other guidance).

We are dealing with a relatively short window of opportunity (would say 5 p.m. Saturday to 9 p.m. Sunday before higher pressure squelches the sea effect) and some possible mixing in streamer precip type.

OTOH we have the greater convective potential of a March daytime streamer production and a shorter North Sea crossing.

Will be updating the boards forecast in about 30 mins if anyone would like to offer thoughts before then much appreciated.

I don't think the ECM is more marginal. In fact, I'd say it's a bit of an upgrade. I would say snow showers starting in the east before dark Saturday, continuing right through the night as the pool of sub-minus 20 air sits in right over Ireland. As the flow turns more easterly during Sunday we might see activity south of Dublin reduced by the Wales shadow, but areas north continuing to see showers up to around midnight Sunday. Still think we won't see more than around 8 cm for the most part at low levels.

sdanseo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I don't think the ECM is more marginal. In fact, I'd say it's a bit of an upgrade. I would say snow showers starting in the east before dark Saturday, continuing right through the night as the pool of sub-minus 20 air sits in right over Ireland. As the flow turns more easterly during Sunday we might see activity south of Dublin reduced by the Wales shadow, but areas north continuing to see showers up to around midnight Sunday. Still think we won't see more than around 8 cm for the most part at low levels.

Not often you predict more snow than MT. Now I'm confident. :pac:

wakka12

trixiebust wrote: »

And people say global warming isn't real...

Cold snaps like this really don't have much to do with global warming. As far as I know its just fairly standard deviation of the jet stream thats dragging colder air from cold areas down to places that don't usually experience cold weather, and when this happens those cold areas become warmer. So the world isn't getting colder just because we have snow, its just displaced cold. And the climate is still warming overall, all over the world

kod87

Not in the slightest bit interested in this, even though I have jumped on every potential snow roller coaster since I started lurking on this forum (around 2005 I think). No appetite whatsoever for snow after what happened 2 weeks ago.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, thanks, my first glance at the ECM was thrown off a bit by the 850 mb temps coming up slightly from 00z but I see the concern with the 700 mb level. Will just hold serve on my earlier forecast at this point and go 10-30 cm potential Leinster, 5-15 cm some parts of Munster and southeast Connacht. That 10-30 might deliver more like 5-25 given the strong insolation rates of 17-18 March (partial melting of falls on contact during daytime hours, however, a lot of this potential appears to be overnight). Thunder is definitely a strong possibility too.

The cold front is now just south of a Stockholm to Trondheim arc moving southwest, temps in the cold air mass are generally close to -20 C, but note that this cold air will only have a short sea passage into northern Britain before heading for Ireland.

One rough metric that we could use is to suggest that most people will see one quarter of the snow they saw in the last episode, trending to perhaps one tenth in counties that border on the Atlantic seaboard. That's still quite a bit of snow in some places.

Missymoohaa

Apologies if I sound dense but can anyone give any indication when the jet stream is due back in our territory. Though I love snow I got so much 2 weeks ago I'm sick of it, my area in North west Wicklow was hit particularly hard. I now long for some lovely mild spring weather.

Kermit.de.frog

Missymoohaa wrote: »

Apologies if I sound dense but can anyone give any indication when the jet stream is due back in our territory. Though I love snow I got so much 2 weeks ago I'm sick of it, my area in North west Wicklow was hit particularly hard. I now long for some lovely mild spring weather.

You don't want the main arm of the jet stream "back in our territory" if you want settled weather:eek:

Chicken and egg.

Missymoohaa

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

You don't want the main arm of the jet stream "back in our territory" if you want settled weather

At this stage Kermit I'd settle for mild.

Calibos

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

....One rough metric that we could use is to suggest that most people will see one quarter of the snow they saw in the last episode, trending to perhaps one tenth in counties that border on the Atlantic seaboard. That's still quite a bit of snow in some places.

Or.....if your little corner of your seaside town missed out on anything more than 5cm of slushy accumulation because of the galeforce winds and high seas of Emma driving in salty sea spray to thaw it as quickly as it was falling...well 'those people' might see 5x times the amount we saw a few weeks ago (Streamer Bullseye permitting)

Pangea

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

One rough metric that we could use is to suggest that most people will see one quarter of the snow they saw in the last episode, trending to perhaps one tenth in counties that border on the Atlantic seaboard.

1/10 of nothing, still nothing, damn my maths

uck51js9zml2yt

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Still think we won't see more than around 8 cm for the most part at low levels.

I was hoping that was a typo and you meant 8mm but I know you didnt:D

Thankfully I have my snow shovel and netflix:rolleyes:

actaphobia

Is there likely to be flight disruptions on Saturday evening/night from Dublin Airport?:eek:

NMB

It’s not going to just be a smaller fall of snow Sat night - Sun compared to the last red warning though is it ? It’s going to be colder air temps ? So for example Dublin city Ctr might have main thoroughfare clearance but diabolical pavement and side streets. Forgive me if I’ve read the charts wrong but it looks to me that it’s going to be a tougher time with less snow for the capital ... maybe until Tuesday. Did I miss a temp drop for the thaw ? What am I doing wrong ??? Help

ninebeanrows

NMB wrote: »

It’s not going to just be a smaller fall of snow Sat night - Sun compared to the last red warning though is it ? It’s going to be colder air temps ? So for example Dublin city Ctr might have main thoroughfare clearance but diabolical pavement and side streets. Forgive me if I’ve read the charts wrong but it looks to me that it’s going to be a tougher time with less snow for the capital ... maybe until Tuesday. Did I miss a temp drop for the thaw ? What am I doing wrong ??? Help

You said it :pac:

Snow risk Sat evening though Sunday....possibly similar to Tuesday night to Thursday morning stuff in last spell but not as severe with extra insolation and slightly less cold, more stable upper air.

However, a very real threat of 5-10cm of snow lying widely across Leinster, including Greater Dublin on March 18th is nothing to be sneered at.

If we had not lived through the recent snowy spell - this thread would be 200 pages long and theyd be pictures of sleds and sliced pan!

sryanbruen

Missymoohaa wrote: »

At this stage Kermit I'd settle for mild.

After the snow happens, high pressure sinks southwards to over us which will bring very cold nights but lovely bright days that whilst cold temperatures, it will feel wonderful in the Spring sunshine.

Kermit.de.frog

Weathercheck wrote: »

You said it :pac:

Snow risk Sat evening though Sunday....possibly similar to Tuesday night to Thursday morning stuff in last spell but not as severe with extra insolation and slightly less cold, more stable upper air.

However, a very real threat of 5-10cm of snow lying widely across Leinster, including Greater Dublin on March 18th is nothing to be sneered at.

If we had not lived through the recent snowy spell - this thread would be 200 pages long and theyd be pictures of sleds and sliced pan!

Special mention for potential disruption given it's St Patrick's Day night. ICON says be aware.



Alcohol and compromised pavements are never a good mix.