FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

NAGDEFI

2nd of April 1987 brought a snow event from 6am to 12 pm to much of the country.

A repeat on the cards..

Gonzo

NAGDEFI wrote: »

2nd of April 1987 brought a snow event from 6am to 12 pm to much of the country.

A repeat on the cards..

I remember that event, it dumped close to a foot of snow here, it stopped snowing about 10am and then the sun came out, there was nothing left on the ground by 7pm.

JCX BXC

Perhaps a slightly different look at FI than of late

km79

This ^^^^^^^^^^^

MJohnston

JCX BXC wrote: »

Perhaps a slightly different look at FI than of late

Not a dry looking chart for that day though!

km79

MJohnston wrote: »

Not a dry looking chart for that day though!

The lord giveth then he taketh Away

Danno

JCX BXC wrote: »

Perhaps a slightly different look at FI than of late

Temps between 1 and 7 then! 😂

sryanbruen

A warm up in temperature next weekend (England could get up to the high teens but us, more like low teens) on the GFS 12z but still very wet then in comes a mini beast from the east .

sryanbruen

sdanseo wrote: »

Would happily take low teens at this stage. The rollercoaster is more like a merry go round at this stage, time to get off and wait for November.

A summer with nice sunshine and highs of 20-22c please chef.

With plentiful heavy rain, no thank you. I'll pass.

Outlook is still very poor.

Elmer Blooker

A mid April beast? Anyone interested?
Didn't think so.

sryanbruen

It's a huge cold outlier in its ensembles ^ plus the GFS isn't keen on it being cold. It is showing an easterly but a far far milder one.

LEIN

I see that the jet stream is still drunk.

sryanbruen

The UKMO favours the GFS in the easterly being mild. If this low doesn't move north, we're in the direct hit for a push of mild to warm air from southeastern Europe on this chart but if the low does move north, close to average temperatures to perhaps cool and wet.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Just a reminder that this thread is for Model / Technical Discussion only for FI charts ( T120+ onwards ) .

Chat here please https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057846555

Thanks.

nacho libre

LEIN wrote: »

I see that the jet stream is still drunk.

It's remarkable how long it has stayed away. Some models are giong for a greenland high in fi. Hopefully it if verifies ,we then get a potent northerly blast.

sryanbruen

Back on topic........ the slow improvement continues with the NAO ever becoming more positive though there does seem to be more ensembles going for negative NAO than the previous look at them for NAO I did on Sunday just gone. I think positive NAO is favoured but there are a good few ensembles going for negative now so they cannot be considered outliers I think right now.



The positive NAO is clear on the GFS OP. Here's the 18z for Monday (+120 hrs) next week for example showing the Azores High and a rather meandered jet stream leaving us in a no man's land pretty much of rain pushing in from the west.



P.S. Nacho, a northerly is like more than 90% unlikely, an easterly is highly more likely but is not going to be particularly cold. As I highlighted earlier to Elmer's post, the ECM was a huge cold outlier.

Let's hope we keep getting improvements.

sryanbruen

ECM and GFS both showing easterlies in FI. ECM now in line with the GFS for it being a mild easterly.

GFS 06z shows easterly but the mild air does not make it to us and by the following week is replaced by an Atlantic regime. Temperatures close to average for the time of year.





ECM 0z shows easterly and gets some quite mild air in to Ireland for a time before cooling down but remaining dry and settled.





UKMO 0z shows low pressure on the 10th pushing southeastwards then the easterly tries to take place but struggles with an area of low pressure to the northwest and the Azores High. Quite cool.



In summary, GFS provides a dry, settled period but not especially warm before an Atlantic regime takes over. ECM shows us in a dry, settled period throughout with some warm temperatures for a time. UKMO shows us in a cool and wet regime as far as we can go with an easterly trying to take place.

A lot of uncertainty to say we will go but the fact that we're seeing signs of settled spell is good.

sryanbruen

If only, if only....

sryanbruen

For what it's worth, the ECM 12z ensembles back up the OP pretty good even though it's +240 hrs away.

sryanbruen

ECM 0z draws in warm continental air by +216 hrs to Ireland.

km79

Yes yes yes ^^^^^

jdcv94

Phew could be seeing it hit the low-mid 20s in that setup inland from the coast. Doubt that will keep up but either way the signs are good for settled weather of some description next week.

Ultimate Seduction

Ireland set to sizzle as temperatures hit +20c in a HEATWAVE expected later next week.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z at midnight on Friday 20th before a cool down during the morning. The GFS usually undercooks the temperatures. 18c in England at midnight in April?

Artane2002

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 12z at midnight on Friday 20th before a cool down during the morning. The GFS usually undercooks the temperatures. 18c in England at midnight in April?

Does it undercook temperatures? I thought it undercooked the uppers but i didn't know about the surface temperatures. I used to think it overcooked the surface temperatures.

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

Does it undercook temperatures? I thought it undercooked the uppers but i didn't know about the surface temperatures. I used to think it overcooked the surface temperatures.

Yes it does, add about 1-3c more and you have the actual temperatures to occur a lot of the time with GFS runs. Anyway, this is what? 10 days away? So let's not go into very much detail for now :P, it's only a possibility and nothing more at this stage.

If you want, you can look through old technical discussion threads or the Meteociel GFS archive. The latter won't provide much because you can only see the surface temperatures on a Europe scale of the map than UK and Ireland specific.

Ultimate Seduction

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yes it does, add about 1-3c more and you have the actual temperatures to occur a lot of the time with GFS runs. Anyway, this is what? 10 days away? So let's not go into very much detail for now :P, it's only a possibility and nothing more at this stage.

If you want, you can look through old technical discussion threads or the Meteociel GFS archive. The latter won't provide much because you can only see the surface temperatures on a Europe scale of the map than UK and Ireland specific.

Too late for that. Just sent out the text invites for a BBQ party

sryanbruen

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Too late for that. Just sent out the text invites for a BBQ party

I think you're looking at the wrong thread then :rolleyes:, this is all Fantasy Island.

Artane2002

I don't even bother looking at surface temperature charts because of how far off they can be, especially 10 days away ! I just use personal knowledge to work out surface temperatures from upper charts.

sryanbruen

What a brilliant ECM 12z that was! Big storm develops in the Atlantic just for the high pressure to come roaring in from the southeast. The only improvement that could be made is for the high to be even closer to Ireland.

After all the beast from the east events upgrading, let's hope we continue this train of upgrades.