Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

Soccarboy11

aidanodr wrote: »

https://www.facebook.com/DonegalWeatherC/



????

well thats wrong

Pangea

A look back to 2010 from the UK Met Office

"By 23 December minimum temperatures had fallen to -20.8 °C at Altnaharra (Highland), while in Northern Ireland, Castlederg (County Tyrone) recorded -18.7 °C on the morning of 23 December, the lowest temperature on record in Northern Ireland"

ninebeanrows

I think we are almost at the point where we will loose the regulars from the crowd. The current charts would result in Ireland's deepest freeze since 2010, and locally beyond. We look set for an extreme event....

Snowbiee21

For the east I really think this has to be taken pretty serious , there could be substantial snow accumulations next week.

Calibos

Snow/Ice Crampons for all the family being delivered tomorrow. SnowSocks for the car tires due to be delivered on Tuesday. Hope its the morning at the latest or else I might not get them at all till its all over. Went down to the Fuel Merchants and got a 40KG bag of coal, 4x bails of Briquettes and 2 bags of Logs before the rush for solid fuel starts. The Fuel Merchant was rubbing his hands with glee when I told him what was coming and why as he understood it was only to be a few snow flurries.

Will only really need the solid fuel if the power went out and we lost our Mains Gas Fired Central heating but I'll be burning them regardless for the 'Atmosphere'. Usually only ever light our two open fires over the Christmas period. Usually do the weeks shop on Sunday but I might get up and do it early tomorrow instead because I reckon Met Eireann will have announced the Red Warnings on Sunday and the panic buying will have started. Definitely going to buy double the usual amount of Rice Krispies and Cornflakes

sdanseo

aidanodr wrote: »

https://www.facebook.com/DonegalWeatherC/



????

A stupidly misleading Facebook post. Boards thread warnings mirror the official ones for a reason. If they're going to invent their own system (arguably in the county furthest from the worst effects) they should make it very clear that it's unofficial.

There's already poeple asking in the comments if it means they don't have to go to work. :rolleyes:

Stephen Hawkins football boots

fritzelly wrote: »

Let's take a moment to think how this will affect the LCC

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think we are almost at the point where we will loose the regulars from the crowd. The current charts would result in Ireland's deepest freeze since 2010, and locally beyond. We look set for an extreme event....

Yes yes yes great

sryanbruen

screamer wrote: »

So what's your prediction sryan how long are we gonna be snowed in for?

See, the thing is that this is an extremely significant and remarkable pattern that is taking place at the moment. Last week's major Sudden Stratospheric Warming had broken records for reversed zonal winds then was followed by the Canadian Warming from earlier this week which broke records again with only a week deviation from each - this is absolutely incredible and has NEVER been done before since stratospheric records began around the 1950s (I'd love to see if there was any stratospheric events involved in 1946-47 but unfortunately, there is no data on it online). Just for anybody who does not know, zonal means west to east, thus our usual zonal Atlantic dominated pattern. However, what has happened here in February 2018 is that the zonal winds have been completely reversed with them now going east to west instead; record breakingly so with record low zonal wind speeds. This means you'll see the majority of activity coming from the east, northeast or southeast than anywhere else as long as the zonal winds are reversed. As it's never been done before, you cannot really make estimates on the duration of the cold spell, you'll just have to play it through just like how 2016-17 was meant to be an easterly QBO season but it turned out the zonal winds high up in the atmosphere overtook the easterly QBO through early to mid-2016 and the westerly QBO took over which had never been done before at the time so we had to play it through and it made forecasting extremely difficult.

There seems to be a recovery in zonal wind speeds signaled for around 8th-14th March (approximately) to near average which will ease down the cold significantly and the Atlantic will try to attempt to regain itself. However, according to some people, this coming cold spell is as a result of last week's major SSW and that the effects of the Canadian Warming will likely not take place 'til the middle and latter part of March. This goes perfectly along with what the GFS ensembles were showing for the zonal wind speeds because after that recovery I spoke of there, the zonal wind speeds tumble back down towards reversed state indicating that northern blocking will get going once again and give us more cold weather. Even during the recovery, the zonal wind speeds are still below par for where they should be according to the ensembles and not to mention, they're weakening too at this time of year which will not help the Atlantic put itself back together.

Once we're in this incredible setup, it's incredibly tricky to get out of. Like the cold will obviously become far less intense after a minimum point but in general, colder than average weather does look like being the dominator into March and maybe even April with that drop off in zonal wind speeds towards the latter part of March courtesy of the Canadian Warming.

Just so ya know, these were my Spring 2018 predictions I made back in December 2017:

March - Cold and rather dull but dry.
April - Cool, wet and rather sunny.
May - Dull, cool and dry. Similar to May 1991 but not nearly as dry.

I may have to change May to very wet and cold.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

Is there any chance this won't happen now? Or is this severe event Locked in? Well for the east anyway

brevity

Hurry on payday. Need to buy tinned goods and a snow shovel. And beer.

leahyl

I’ve been getting this feeling over the last few hours that there might not be much snow for Cork City...we miss out so often and usually North Cork would get a fair bit...I hope I’m wrong and we get something of note anyway....the east seems to be taking it all at the moment, god dammit!

nacho libre

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think we are almost at the point where we will loose the regulars from the crowd. .

Why?
Will they be too busy out playing in the snow like this gentle man:

sryanbruen

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

Is there any chance this won't happen now? Or is this severe event Locked in? Well for the east anyway

Some people still say it won't but with my external methodology in mind, yes pal, it's locked in.

sryanbruen

leahyl wrote: »

I’ve been getting this feeling over the last few hours that there might not be much snow for Cork City...we miss out so often and usually North Cork would get a fair bit...I hope I’m wrong and we get something of note anyway....the east seems to be taking it all at the moment, god dammit!

Don't worry leahyl,

a special delivery will be coming to ya

.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

Is there any chance this snow event won't happen ? Or is it Locked in now? Will the east and Dub be hit as bad as these charts I don't understand say ��

RustyGate

Rougies wrote: »

You mean a "superser", if you're an old fart like me.

Anyone resorting to those gas heaters would be well advised to get themselves a carbon monoxide alarm as well.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

sryanbruen wrote: »

Some people still say it won't but with my external methodology in mind, yes pal, it's locked in.

Thats good enough for me Syran, I don't understand half what you say but you know your stuff,so thank you

irishgeo

can we buy our snow ploughs back from canada. hopefully the west escapes the worst.

Gremlin

I think the key factor which means this is nailed on is that the SSW has already happened, not just forecast to. The scandinavian high is in place. It's very hard to see how this won't happen.

BorneTobyWilde

Pangea

The Eagle has spoken
https://www.oceanfm.ie/2018/02/23/temperatures-set-plummet-7-northwest/

teddybones

Surely it'd be unlikely that the power would go out though? I don't even remember stories of power loss around here in heavy snows.[/quote]


I am in Wicklow town and we lost power in 2010 for a few days with the snow and also lost our water. We had to get water from a stand pipe erected at the top of our estate by the council ( bless them, wonder will IW be so efficient ).

Love snow and really looking forward to this event with all my heart but if the electricity and water go again the novelty will soon wear off. On top of that my partner is jetting off to the canaries on monday with our daughter leaving me all alone and no one to slide down the extremely steep hill with! The local kids ran a hose down said hill which we live on during the beginning of the 2010 freeze ( before the mains froze) and it made for a super lethal but extraordinarily fast ice track! Hoping they will do it again. I have 2 ice tobogans now! Which we did habe then. A large baking tray did the trick.
Also in my forties so remember fondly 1982. Lived further up the hills and had 8 ft drifts. 2010 was colder for longer but nothing has beaten 82 for sheer volume of thw white stuff. God am nearly teary eyed at the thoughts of what next week will bring.

Live about 70m asl facing north east overlooking the irish sea
... i have no words...

screamer

Realistically even with what is forecast there are other countries that manage quite well with lots of snow and life continues as normal. Not in Ireland though.... We're out buying coal and food like it was Christmas Eve.... Calling in to work and stuck at home getting cabin fever with roasted red hands from being out making snowballs....

Hold up now Joanna's on the forecast again.....

screamer

Right she said warnings could go to red level later in the week....

screamer

They've revised the temperatures down for next week since the last forecast.... 2 degrees on Wednesday...lovely

snowbabe

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think we are almost at the point where we will loose the regulars from the crowd. The current charts would result in Ireland's deepest freeze since 2010, and locally beyond. We look set for an extreme event....

Aw I hope not ,thank you

jimbis

And the wink again

sryanbruen

I seriously cannot emphasise the significance of these two stratospheric events. Like look at the 1:00 chart for Saturday on the GFS 18z for the stratosphere. The Canadian Warming is still going on with no Polar Vortex in sight! Just as a reminder, the Canadian Warming had reached its peak Sunday-Monday last and since then has had a gradual drop off. Usually, these kinds of events go away after 2-3 days with the yellow, red colours etc but look here we are, nearly a week later and the stratosphere is still VERY warm. I'll repeat myself again, absolutely incredible!!

You'll get sick and tired of me saying the latter but really, this is extraordinary.

OT for a moment,

sryanbruen, I just have to say, you are amazing, I cant believe you are so young.
You are a credit to yourself .

sdanseo

sryanbruen wrote: »

I seriously cannot emphasise the significance of these two stratospheric events. Like look at the 1:00 chart for Saturday on the GFS 18z for the stratosphere. The Canadian Warming is still going on with no Polar Vortex in sight! Just as a reminder, the Canadian Warming had reached its peak Sunday-Monday last and since then has had a gradual drop off. Usually, these kinds of events go away after 2-3 days with the yellow, red colours etc but look here we are, nearly a week later and the stratosphere is still VERY warm. I'll repeat myself again, absolutely incredible!!

You'll get sick and tired of me saying the latter but really, this is extraordinary.

So in a nutshell, can it be inferred that the potential is there for several weeks of prolonged cold, relative to the amount of time the stratopsheric warming continues for?