Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

snowstorm445

Siobhán ramping the cold on Six One, “temperatures falling back significantly.”

dacogawa

Bit of a ramp there on the RTE weather!

patsy sally

wont throw the electric blanket out yet so..

gabeeg

This is from a pro called Nick L over on netweather. Thought it was worth sharing.

I wish you guys could see the precip charts on the EC. Serious disruption Tues and Wed on this run across swathes of the country.

Rougies

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Aye but an awful lot of this at our latitude is ENE or even NE
So no worries there
Also impossible to model little features that might develop in the flow like shallow lows
Folks this air is COLD
C
O
L
D

Regarding upgrades or downgrades
Anyone concerned should note that our snowflakes aren’t because from what Ive seen they’re falling through frozen air from cloud to ground or sea in anything I’ve seen

Yeah I was just replying purely in context the Irish Sea being large enough for lake effect. Pinpointing where/when it will snow is course a nowcast unless a feature pops up.

piplip87

Ah lads here I was backing "Spring Horses" for Cheltenham. Snow comes for the UK and Ireland first week of March, melts the second week leaving heavy ground. Usually I love the snow but if I don't have a big lump of money for Paddy's weekend shell take the brush to me

munsterlegend

gabeeg wrote: »

This is from a pro called Nick L over on netweather. Thought it was worth sharing.

Unless it comes from the Murrmeister I don't want to know.

mickger844posts

The instability in the ECM 12z is an added bonus to an outstanding run. A snow fest if that run verifies. Holding the frigid air right to the end of the run also. Hopefully this time tomorrow similar output.

pad199207

Siobhan on a ramp here

"Temperatures falling back quite dramatically through Sunday"

"Strong signal now for extremely cold weather next week"

up for anything

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

If you are old enough to remember......

Thanks, Rebelbrowser. Great post, informative and a lovely look back. I was in London back then and I don't recall any great snow event that year. We must have missed it.

sparrowcar wrote: »

couldn't actually enjoy it at the time even though I would be considered a meteosexual.

Love that description. :pac:

giveitholly

mickger844posts wrote: »

The instability in the ECM 12z is an added bonus to an outstanding run. A snow fest if that run verifies. Holding the frigid air right to the end of the run also. Hopefully this time tomorrow similar output.

Would that just be for the east coast or countrywide if it verifies

pad199207

That ECM is just sublime

catrat12

Hopefully Dublin mountains get a bit of white gold

PukkaStukka

I just poured the last drops of a fine Scotch in celebration of the ECM coming to the rescue. Unfortunately it does mean I need to stock up again in advance of the upcoming lockdown / snow-in...:pac: :pac: :pac:

redsteveireland

Jeju wrote: »

Might mow the lawn Saturday, should be able to roll a bigger snowman base on Sunday without the longish grass.

Serious popcorn thread for the next week.
Keep up the good discussion.

Does the grass not help the snow lie? I.e it keeps the snow away from the possibly warmer ground?

esposito

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Siobhán ramping the cold on Six One, “temperatures falling back significantly.”

I’ve noticed she loves to shake her head as she describes how cold it is. I think she secretly loves the cold weather though 😆

pp_me

Yes! HERE COMES THE SNNOOOWWWWWW

lucernarian

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think the 12z EC illustrates the potential issues we can encounter at this juncture, that shortwave running up to Iceland at 144 puts pressure on tip of the block at 168, meanwhile you have disturbances in the flow over the North Sea. It's for the good I reckon - will cool expectations and reinforce that this is still very much in the uncertain medium range timeframes

The disturbances in the flow are something to be celebrated mainly. I notice some frequent posters in NetWeather repeatedly bringing that "threat" up. Don't we want an unstable flow with precipitation?

That shortwave near Iceland is definitely not what we want to see.

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

Unless it comes from the Murrmeister I don't want to know.

Murr is a ramper. The other guy that was quoted is sober in his analysis. He is also a qualified meteorologist. So if he is coming out with that you know it's potentially epic times ahead!

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

Murr is a ramper. The other guy that was quoted is sober in his analysis. He is also a qualified meteorologist. So if he is coming out with that you know it's potentially epic times ahead!

I wasn't being serious! I just find it funny the adulation. Life of Brian stuff!

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

I wasn't being serious! I just find it funny the adulation. Life of Brian stuff!

Ah yes. Some folk hang on his every word:D

KingBobby

Christ I dont know if i'm excited or afraid.
I want mountains of snow to frolick in, but I also want all my animals to survive!

George Sunsnow

lucernarian wrote: »

The disturbances in the flow are something to be celebrated mainly. I notice some frequent posters in NetWeather repeatedly bringing that "threat" up. Don't we want an unstable flow with precipitation?

That shortwave near Iceland is definitely not what we want to see.

Yes you want disturbances and shortwaves in the easterly flow
They will bring snow
You don't want a shortwave developing into a big low that runs from Iceland across the top of the high pushing it south
Casual visitors understandably don't understand the difference and think of SW's as spoiler features
That's in marginal set ups
This isn't marginal
A low cant currently do that though as the high is dominant
Lets get this in and see what happens
I'm guessing at the moment we get a week of it, a lull, and then a north/northeasterly followed by a reload
But that's just hunch
What we are heading into is new just like the 2010 experience was new

ninebeanrows

lucernarian wrote: »

The disturbances in the flow are something to be celebrated mainly. I notice some frequent posters in NetWeather repeatedly bringing that "threat" up. Don't we want an unstable flow with precipitation?

That shortwave near Iceland is definitely not what we want to see.

The EC 12z moderates the 850s which may result in marginality near coasts. The shortwave over the top of block leads to a concern it may be stronger in upcoming runs and result in more high pressure influence and pushing the Siberian plunge further south. The shortwaves in the North Sea modify the flow reaching Ireland giving uppers around -9 instead of -13, which at this time of year could be difference between hail, wet snow and dry sticking snow

nacho libre

Yes shortwaves in the wrong place normally scuppers a cold spell, but in this case shortwaves are good because once that cold air is entrenched ( and movement will always be west of the general pattern), then we have shortwave snow making machines on our hands. The more shortwaves the better because the large Greenland block will keep us embedded in deep cold.
That shortwaves over Iceland won't do anything to our block, it can't develop into a powerful low resulting in our blocked being sunk. I will eat my socks if it does.

Youngpensioner

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes shortwaves in the wrong place normally scuppers a cold spell, but in this case shortwaves are good because once that cold air is entrenched ( and movement will always be west of the general pattern), then we have shortwave snow making machines on our hands. The more shortwaves the better because the large Greenland block will keep us embedded in deep cold.
That shortwaves over Iceland won't do anything to our block, it can't develop into a powerful low resulting in our blocked being sunk. I will eat my socks if it does.

I see the exact same post word for word on netweather with 29 likes

Youngpensioner

Weathercheck wrote: »

The EC 12z moderates the 850s which may result in marginality near coasts. The shortwave over the top of block leads to a concern it may be stronger in upcoming runs and result in more high pressure influence and pushing the Siberian plunge further south. The shortwaves in the North Sea modify the flow reaching Ireland giving uppers around -9 instead of -13, which at this time of year could be difference between hail, wet snow and dry sticking snow

Measured post. Echoes my fears.

roosterman71

catrat12 wrote: »

Hopefully Dublin mountains get a bit of white gold

Milk?

nacho libre

Given the source, -9 uppers should be more than enough to get powdery snow at this time of year

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

Given the source, -9 uppers should be more than enough to get powdery snow at this time of year

A lot of the 2010 upper air temperature synoptics don't seem that impressive to me given what had taken place. However, the thing with them is that the cold was well and truly locked in before them.