Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

JCX BXC

18Z GFS rolling out. Over the past few runs the 18Z has consistently been the most severe, let's see what this one brings

gabeeg

JCX BXC wrote: »

18Z GFS rolling out. Over the past few runs the 18Z has consistently been the most severe, let's see what this one brings

That sounds fun, but can I tempt you into having an argument about Met Eireann instead?

Jumpinjames

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I'm a bit worried now about the downgrades in the ECM and GFS compared to this time last night. The chances of substantial precipitation have diminished, with QPF of only 2-4 mm through much of the east and south through next week. The depth of cold air in today's run has diminished. Plenty cold at 850 hPa but the 700 hPa temeratures are now 3-4 degrees warmer than they were showing yesterday. This would lead to shallower convection and hence lower precipitation totals. Not getting those deep saturated profiles I posted yesterday.

Still not much question as yet over type of precipitation, but with the westerly fringe of coldest air edging slightly eastwards every run I'd be concerned that any further downgrades could lead to a downward spiral. Will be checking the 00Z runs with interest.

Oh no....

JCX BXC

Jumpinjames wrote: »

Oh no....

Little request that we don't fill the thread with posts like this, including "oh no" "sad face" ":(" "we are going to get rain" blah blah nonsense posts that arrive every time there's something semi-negetive posted thanks

sryanbruen

gabeeg wrote: »

That sounds fun, but can I tempt you into having an argument about Met Eireann instead?

Please let's not.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

Novice question here , all charts ecm,00z gfs and lots more I'm sure,in lay mans terms what's the difference or if that takes too long to explain,what is the most accurate as in if that chart says snow then it's guarantee

Jumpinjames

JCX BXC wrote: »

Little request that we don't fill the thread with posts like this, including "oh no" "sad face" ":(" "we are going to get rain" blah blah nonsense posts that arrive every time there's something semi-negetive posted thanks

Em ok .... sorry

George Sunsnow

Pangea wrote: »

The met offices thoughts on the cold spell (not sure if this was already posted)
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/conditions-turning-colder-later-in-the-week

I find it amusing this term that it can last into March
It starts 3 days before March

kingshankly

JCX BXC wrote: »

Little request that we don't fill the thread with posts like this, including "oh no" "sad face" ":(" "we are going to get rain" blah blah nonsense posts that arrive every time there's something semi-negetive posted thanks

This is a weather forum not a snow lovers forum (although you could easily be mistaken)” looks like rain” could be very positive for some of us that have had our fill of snow

gabeeg

GFS rolling out.

Looks pretty similar to earlier so far at 102 hours

pad199207

Tomasz Shafanaker or whatever it is, mentioning possibility of 'Big Freeze' on that BBC Forecast

Donegal Storm

Could we get a technical thread for this? Getting increasingly hard to find any informative posts when having to scroll through page after page of chat



Still too far out to take things too seriously but for a rough idea, here's the ECMWF and GFS snow charts up to next Wednesday evening, global models tend not to pick up well on streamers so expect more than this but they're not exactly showing copious amounts of snow as some seem to be expecting. Windchill still the main feature I'm seeing more than anything else. More snow potential later on next week but that's pure speculation that far out

JCX BXC

kingshankly wrote: »

This is a weather forum not a snow lovers forum (although you could easily be mistaken)” looks like rain” could be very positive for some of us that have had our fill of snow

That's not what I was discussing at all.

BLIZZARD7

I wouldn't put much faith in those charts, as you say they don't pick up streamers, no real convection is picked up on them. Useful for frontal events, not much else.

JCX BXC

First thoughts on the GFS is that it's a slight delay again.

sryanbruen

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Could we get a technical thread for this? Getting increasingly hard to find any informative posts when having to scroll through page after page of chat

Still too far out to take things too seriously but for a rough idea, here's the ECMWF and GFS snow charts up to next Wednesday evening, global models tend not to pick up well on streamers so expect more than this but they're not exactly showing copious amounts of snow as some seem to be expecting. Windchill still the main feature I'm seeing more than anything else. More snow potential later on next week but that's pure speculation that far out

Well, that snow depth chart showed 17.7 inches of snow for me on December 10th 24 hours before.... and I got **** all, I got cold rain. No flakes at all. Since that, I don't bother one bit with those crappy charts.

mobil 222

shmaupel wrote: »

Lovely photos

When was the last time you had snow?

In Rossnowlagh here looking across at you.

So snow-deprived it's chronic. Even a white frost would do at this stage!

I live the Donegal side of Sligo town.
Benbulben is always the first to get whatever snow is falling.

As you head out towards Manorhamilton and take a loop towards Donegal town
it always seems to get a good coating.

The funny thing I find about Sligo town and surrounding areas we never seem to get much of the white stuff. Frost is an altogether different thing.

But out Collooney, Riverstown and Ballyfarnon you would swear you were in a different country with what they get and they are from 5 mile to 15 out.

Youngpensioner

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Here's the GFS forecast Skew-T for Dublin city next Monday night. Northeasterly wind, deep saturated layer to 4 km, whole profile well below zero = heavy snow.

Bank!

As you said yourself recently "The GFS isn't worth a shíte"

Gaoth Laidir

This was lastnight's sounding for 21Z next Wednesday. Fully-saturated profile (red temperature and green dewpoint curves together) below zero (left of the blue 0-degree isotherm). 700 hPa temperature -15 °C, perfect for dentrite-production.



And this is tonight's. A very shallow layer of stratocumulus at 850 hPa. 700 hPa temperature now -8 °C, not as optimum.



This is just one snapshot, and it's not all as bad as this. There are some not-as-bad profiles, such as the one below (which is the deepest I can find, but still not saturated above 700 hPa).



There is a similar trend in the ECM, ICON and GEM, all of which show very low total precipitation values next week.

Urindanger

Ah yeah great. I've been waiting six months for my driving test and now it's on the week there's talks of mad snow.

sryanbruen

Youngpensioner wrote: »

As you said yourself recently "The GFS isn't worth a ****e"

Neither is the European Crap Model, I mean ECM, this Winter.

Youngpensioner

sryanbruen wrote: »

Neither is the European Crap Model, I mean ECM, this Winter.

ECM Verification stats its top dog. Stats over sentiments.

sryanbruen

Urindanger wrote: »

there's talks of mad snow.

Where?

gabeeg

The GFS is looking fantastic again, but if it's right then we'll all be going to work on Monday

sryanbruen

Youngpensioner wrote: »

ECM Verification stats its top dog.

Certainly not this Winter.

Youngpensioner

sryanbruen wrote: »

Certainly not this Winter.

Actually it is. And every other winter. Like I said, facts over sentiments.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

Are people loosing hope now? Will this be another damp squib

George Sunsnow

sryanbruen wrote: »

Where?

MT mentioned it earlier for the Dublin area based on earlier runs and didn’t dilute it with what he said about this evenings

pad199207

Getting a little bit concerned now with these delays. I was planning to properly jump on board this tomorrow but I dont think i will now. Have to push it to Thursday unfortunately!

gabeeg

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

Are people loosing hope now? Will this be another damp squib

kudos on the correct spelling of squib.

Absolutely not. We're seeing possibly the best charts of the internet age.