Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

shmaupel

mobil 222 wrote: »

It would be nice if the ground matched the sea for color next week.
Mullaghmore, Co Sligo
This Evening 16.20

Lovely photos

When was the last time you had snow?

In Rossnowlagh here looking across at you.

So snow-deprived it's chronic. Even a white frost would do at this stage!

dacogawa

120 also looking on the same track

nacho libre

long range forecast for the UK over the next 6-30 days - Updated: 15:02 on Tue 20 Feb 2018 GMT

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018:
Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 21 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March

sryanbruen

Those unhappy with the current output, well look at this time last year in comparison.

Jumpinjames

nacho libre wrote: »

long range forecast for the UK over the next 6-30 days - Updated: 15:02 on Tue 20 Feb 2018 GMT

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018:
Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 21 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March

Im curious about snow in an easterly set up. If the west and north of UK aren’t getting any snow then how will the east of Ireland? Or are we just looking at a very cold but dry airflow?

BLIZZARD7

Jumpinjames wrote: »

Im curious about snow in an easterly set up. If the west and north of UK aren’t getting any snow then how will the east of Ireland? Or are we just looking at a very cold but dry airflow?

The Irish Sea turns into a snow machine when cold air hits it. Also they won't mention any embedded features in the flow until closer to the time.

dacogawa

144 hours, 850hPa -8 hitting the east coast at lunchtime on Monday, a good run so far!

nacho libre

Jumpinjames wrote: »

Im curious about snow in an easterly set up. If the west and north of UK aren’t getting any snow then how will the east of Ireland? Or are we just looking at a very cold but dry airflow?

I don't think so based on the charts i've seen. We have unstable flow, and bascially as a consequence of that we get lake effect snow type conditions for some in the east.

Reckless Abandonment

That's about as cold and snowy an outlook I ever seen from the UK met.

joe40

I recall a few years ago there was very cold snowy weather in England and eastern parts of Ulster. Farmers in antrim had trouble rescuing sheep. But only mild conditions in western parts. I live in Donegal and remember been all jealous. Is this likely to be a similar set up. It might even have been feb, I can't remember the year

nacho libre

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

That's about as cold and snowy an outlook I ever seen from the UK met.

I was very happy reading that! I was logging on to day fearing the worst. Surely now it wont go pear shapped, with virtually cross model agreement. The GEM will hopefully cop itself on soon:)

dacogawa

168 hours still on track, it might be bit nippy next Tuesday

tikkamark

The 7 or so days leading up to the First predicted precipitation are really really unusual by Irish weather standards ie little to no rain for the next week straight that in itself is something to be delighted with as the ground at the moment is drying up nicely so be great if that trend continues too.

JCX BXC

Latest ECM advancing the cold forward by a good few hours (and deeper into Europe), thats what I like to see :P

Jumpinjames

Phew it appears we are back on track! Thanks for the explanations about lake effect snow. I am familiar with it having lived in Chicago for a while but I always imagined the Irish Sea not being a large enough waterbody to produce snowfalls.

sryanbruen

tikkamark wrote: »

The 7 or so days leading up to the First predicted precipitation are really really unusual by Irish weather standards ie little to no rain for the next week straight that in itself is something to be delighted with as the ground at the moment is drying up nicely so be great if that trend continues too.

It's pretty typical before these kinds of cold spells to be honest. It happened in December 2009. It happened in November 2010. It happened in January 1985. It happened in January/February 1991. It's just maybe a sign of what's to come down the line.

Itssoeasy

tikkamark wrote: »

The 7 or so days leading up to the First predicted precipitation are really really unusual by Irish weather standards ie little to no rain for the next week straight that in itself is something to be delighted with as the ground at the moment is drying up nicely so be great if that trend continues too.

Yeah my local gaa club pitch could do with no rain as it's in shocking shape.

ninebeanrows

I think the 12z EC illustrates the potential issues we can encounter at this juncture, that shortwave running up to Iceland at 144 puts pressure on tip of the block at 168, meanwhile you have disturbances in the flow over the North Sea. It's for the good I reckon - will cool expectations and reinforce that this is still very much in the uncertain medium range timeframes

Kermit.de.frog

At 168 a band of snow is going northeast to southwest across Ireland with even colder air following.

dacogawa

Bingo! I'm now not looking at another chart till tomorrow...

BLIZZARD7

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

At 168 a band of snow is going northeast to southwest across Ireland with even colder air following.

ECM would usher in a really bitter and snowy spell. The stunning charts just keep on coming...

Kermit.de.frog

Latest high resolution NMM to Sunday afternoon showing the extent and depth of cold coming out of Russia and in to Europe.

Rougies

Jumpinjames wrote: »

Phew it appears we are back on track! Thanks for the explanations about lake effect snow. I am familiar with it having lived in Chicago for a while but I always imagined the Irish Sea not being a large enough waterbody to produce snowfalls.

It's large enough over the widest part (from Liverpool up to the Scottish border), although the Isle of Mann can cause problems if you're in an unlucky location (known as the IOM shadow around here) The part between Wales and Wicklow/Wexford isn't really wide enough in an easterly, and some areas can get caught under "the Anglesey shadow".

Itssoeasy

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

ECM would usher in a really bitter and snowy spell. The stunning charts just keep on coming...

Okay I kind of understand what the heavy hitters in this forum(and fair play for being able to work this stuff out) but I detected some "pear shaped" comments earlier but now it appears it's good again. Do I have that right ?

I hope I'm not asking a stupid question but I will be staying with my grandmother next Monday night and at this point do we know when it will start to snow(or get very cold) ? I just need to make sure I can sort stuff for her after Monday night. Thanks.

Rougies

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Okay I kind of understand what the heavy hitters in this forum(and fair play for being able to work this stuff out) but I detected some "pear shaped" comments earlier but now it appears it's good again. Do I have that right ?

I hope I'm not asking a stupid question but I will be staying with my grandmother next Monday night and at this point do we know when it will start to snow(or get very cold) ? I just need to make sure I can sort stuff for her after Monday night. Thanks.

We'll only really know for (almost) certain on Saturday.

Itssoeasy

Rougies wrote: »

We'll only really know for (almost) certain on Saturday.

Okay so I've got Saturday and Sunday then. Thanks for that.

Rala_

Really hope for the love of god it doesn't get cold again. Very depressing.

Gonzo

great charts again this evening. I'm sure however we have not seen the last of the charts with slight wobbles. We had a few major wobbles before this thread was started and everything recovered. The next few days could be very exciting but the wait is punishing.

Rala_

Roll on summer! #20degress please.

George Sunsnow

Rougies wrote: »

It's large enough over the widest part (from Liverpool up to the Scottish border), although the Isle of Mann can cause problems if you're in an unlucky location (known as the IOM shadow around here) The part between Wales and Wicklow/Wexford isn't really wide enough in an easterly, and some areas can get caught under "the Anglesey shadow".

Aye but an awful lot of this at our latitude is ENE or even NE
So no worries there
Also impossible to model little features that might develop in the flow like shallow lows
Folks this air is COLD
C
O
L
D

Regarding upgrades or downgrades
Anyone concerned should note that our snowflakes aren’t because from what Ive seen they’re falling through frozen air from cloud to ground or sea in anything I’ve seen