Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Kermit.de.frog

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Thanks There is some colder weather all the way from Siberia on the way for the weekend and for next week and this could bring with it very low temperatures and snowfall.

There is a 50/50 risk of severe cold weather conditions effecting the country and a higher risk of moderately cold conditions nationwide.

However, despite the uncertainty potential is growing that the event could be severe in nature. The east and south are most at risk of some heavy and disruptive snowfall through next week.

Temperatures will fall away from Friday as an Easterly breeze becomes established, frosts will become more widespread and severe.


Potential hazards ahead:

Low Temperatures
Heavy Snowfall
Ice
Severe Frost

Potential Warning Levels - Yellow to Red

I'd recommend whispering to friends and neighbors, the elderly at this point without going over board and with the proviso that the forecast still be taken cautiously. Be sure to keep up to date and have a hot water bottle at the ready.





That is some serious stuff and very different to the type of Atlantic based cold periods we have had so far this winter. Worth noting these temperatures associated with this airmass (the upper air temperatures illustrated) are colder than any observed at any stage in both 2010 winters.

So yeah, not your typical cold incursion to these shores.

It will be a few days until we have rock solid agreement on the forecast from the computer models. For now they are converging on a potentially disruptive and maybe even severe solution.

gerrybhoy

In Kermit we trust

john why

Bring it baby.

fred funk }{

Good stuff Kermie.

Rock Lesnar

Kermit has spoken, its almost certain to happen now, time to stock up on food, oil and firewood

force eleven

Sensible post, we've all done the 'cold weather on the way' warning routine to family only to see it not happen. This one certainly looks like happening but how cold and how severe remains unknown. ECM looking back on board this evening after routing the worst cold to the south of us earlier. I'm not sure how much snow this could bring, easterlies are a fickle thing. Might need to check the pipe lagging though....

little bess

Ooh, I just know that something good is going to happen
And I don't know when
But just saying it could even make it happen...

pjohnson

Ah for fcuk sake. The last spell has just ended. This is depressing.

M.T. Cranium

Depressing? Definitely wrong forum, escort that man to the gates.

BLIZZARD7

Good god... -14c 850 temps into the country with -15c over wales- the Irish Sea would turn into one hell of a snow machine

pjohnson

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Depressing? Definitely wrong forum, escort that man to the gates.

I dont like frozen roads/pipes and left housebound. Dya know how bloody boring rural Galway can be :pac:


I've only just got the TV back lastnight

km79

pjohnson wrote: »

I dont like frozen roads/pipes and left housebound. Dya know how bloody boring rural Galway can be :pac:

Im with you

sryanbruen

Ok, I'll admit, I might be as so slightly excited right now.

gabeeg

I knew it!

Kermit.de.frog

Here she comes...

sryanbruen

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

It finished up with a GH about to send a freezing northerly with a chunk of PV likely following - 2010 esque

Yes please!

Soccarboy11

Ah finally the thread has arrived, delighted!

Gonzo

tonight has certainly been a game changer, lets hope all the models stick to this from now on. I don't think I could stomach another 2012 so soon.

BLIZZARD7

Gonzo wrote: »

tonight has certainly been a game changer, lets hope all the models stick to this from now on. I don't think I could stomach another 2012 so soon.

Record breaking SSW, favorable MJO, low sunspots, Every model on board, UK met office very bullish, far more severe charts consistently showing - This one would be worse feeling if it falls apart to be honest...

JCX BXC

Don't jinx it Kermit ffs! Was hoping we'd play blind until it came into reasonable territory!

NMB

CHOO CHOO !! Finally !!! All aboard ! I've been waiting for this thread for the last few days - my nerves from watching the FI posts are shredded !

pad199207

After this evenings runs i think the only thing that stands between us and probably the strongest easterly in decades is Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

The setup cannot be faulted.

Id say if the same setup is being modelled through tomorrow this thread will likely be 20 pages long by tomorrow evening.......

gabeeg

Correct me if I'm wrong - but if the ECM verifies we'd be looking at max temps of about -2 or -3, right?

George Sunsnow

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Good god... -14c 850 temps into the country with -15c over wales- the Irish Sea would turn into one hell of a snow machine

I was about to post that in winter,I knocked and knocked and knocked,they’d all left for the house party here

But yeah that’s incredible
It’s an ENE flow
Full shower fetch on the Irish Sea
A Reinforce the roof with steel girders and install lightning conductors chart for the east

M.T. Cranium

It's already near -30 C in northern Scandinavia and also in parts of northern Russia, then higher pressure builds up and helps to flush that out into the developing easterly flow. If these 850s verify there would be potential for very heavy snowfall amounts. No way to guarantee details this far out but you would expect to find hours of heavy snow in a constant easterly flow with -12 or lower, and quite a long fetch inland with that.

We're going to crash the internet if this actually happens.

BLIZZARD7

gabeeg wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong - but if the ECM verifies we'd be looking at max temps of about -2 or -3, right?

In Dublin City centre yes, -5c maxes possible in more rural areas. That would require being under a constant streamer of cloud cover and heavy snow though given the sun strength at this time of year( which by the way will just aid convective activity).

These charts are just extreme, no other word for it.

pjohnson

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

It's already near -30 C in northern Scandinavia and also in parts of northern Russia, then higher pressure builds up and helps to flush that out into the developing easterly flow. If these 850s verify there would be potential for very heavy snowfall amounts. No way to guarantee details this far out but you would expect to find hours of heavy snow in a constant easterly flow with -12 or lower, and quite a long fetch inland with that.

We're going to crash the internet if this actually happens.

Is it likely to go country wide or just easterly? Will Galway need to worry?

SeaBreezes

Forgive me if a stupid question, but twice now the morning ECM has favoured milder for us and the evening back in the game. Are the models using differing data sources morning and evening?

Soccarboy11

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

In Dublin City centre yes, -5c maxes possible in more rural areas. That would require being under a constant streamer of cloud cover and heavy snow though given the sun strength at this time of year( which by the way will just aid convective activity).

These charts are just extreme, no other word for it.

How's would the temps be looking for us in Cork City? iirc cork can be very snowed under from an easterly or very dry, but I'm not sure! Not sure how to tell general temps from the graphs yet! Thanks

gabeeg

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

How's would the temps be looking for us in Cork City? iirc cork can be very snowed under from an easterly or very dry, but I'm not sure! Not sure how to tell general temps from the graphs yet! Thanks

Cork?

about 8 degrees celsius, with driving rain

George Sunsnow

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

How's would the temps be looking for us in Cork City? iirc cork can be very snowed under from an easterly or very dry, but I'm not sure! Not sure how to tell general temps from the graphs yet! Thanks

Oh I don’t think you have any need to worry!

BLIZZARD7

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

How's would the temps be looking for us in Cork City? iirc cork can be very snowed under from an easterly or very dry, but I'm not sure! Not sure how to tell general temps from the graphs yet! Thanks

It wouldn't be much different - if these charts verify you guys should see heavy snow too.

That ECM is almost as perfect as it can get though, worth bearing that in mind. But even with a decent downgrade next week should throw up snow potential.

pad199207

Id say the 21:30 RTE weather later will drop much more hints and signs of much colder conditions come the weekend after that ECM this evening.

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

In Dublin City centre yes, -5c maxes possible in more rural areas. That would require being under a constant streamer of cloud cover and heavy snow though given the sun strength at this time of year( which by the way will just aid convective activity).

These charts are just extreme, no other word for it.

...but what about the strength of the sun at this time of year:pac:

gerrybhoy

pjohnson wrote: »

I dont like frozen roads/pipes and left housebound. Dya know how bloody boring rural Galway can be :pac:


I've only just got the TV back lastnight

Get a slab of beer and a few jazz mags 😉

Gaoth Laidir

Here's the GFS forecast Skew-T for Dublin city next Monday night. Northeasterly wind, deep saturated layer to 4 km, whole profile well below zero = heavy snow.

Bank!

gerrybhoy

pad199207 wrote: »

After this evenings runs i think the only thing that stands between us and probably the strongest easterly in decades is Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

The setup cannot be faulted.

Id say if the same setup is being modelled through tomorrow this thread will likely be 20 pages long by tomorrow evening.......

Be over 20 long by the end of the first half in the Wigan and City match ffs

nacho libre

pjohnson wrote: »

Is it likely to go country wide or just easterly? Will Galway need to worry?

Cold and mostly dry, perhaps the odd shower or two contend with, but not frequent or heavy snow- unless there is a frontal event.

Soccarboy11

gabeeg wrote: »

Cork?

about 8 degrees celsius, with driving rain

Honestly wouldn't surprise me! :P

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

It wouldn't be much different - if these charts verify you guys should see heavy snow too.

That ECM is almost as perfect as it can get though, worth bearing that in mind. But even with a decent downgrade next week should throw up snow potential.

Thanks a lot for the reply! appreciate it! Just makes chart watching more entertaining and exciting!

MidMan25

Off work next week great timing.

Reckless Abandonment

Will it snow just north of rathmines on Monday at 3 pm ?? I've an appointment for my grannys sick puppy to get his hair cut ..

giveitholly

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Will it snow just north of rathmines on Monday at 3 pm ?? I've an appointment for my grannys sick puppy to get his hair cut ..

No it won't start til 3.47pm😂

pjohnson

nacho libre wrote: »

Cold and mostly dry, perhaps the odd shower or two contend with, but not frequent or heavy snow- unless there is a frontal event.

Thanks

sryanbruen

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Here's the GFS forecast Skew-T for Dublin city next Monday night. Northeasterly wind, deep saturated layer to 4 km, whole profile well below zero = heavy snow.

Bank!

Never thought I'd see the day Gaoth Laidir mentioning heavy snow.

gozunda

I take it that this will potentially be a countrywide event from Sunday?

When Gaoth Laidir isn’t doubting Kermit that’s must only mean one thing.....

This could be the real deal!

JCX BXC

gozunda wrote: »

I take it that this will potentially be a countrywide event from Sunday?

Cold weather yes, snowfall remains to be seen.

pauldry

Already a major event has started in the Northwest

RED WARNING its going to be mainly dry

kittyn

Just out of curiosity guys when was the 2010 event first spotted? And which model handled it best?? My memory is failing me 😂😂😂

pad199207

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

When Gaoth Laidir isn’t doubting Kermit that’s must only mean one thing.....

This could be the real deal!

Yeah we won’t be worrying about these words and terms.....

“Marginal, Dewpoint, Wetbulb, warm sector, onshore wind, sleet, ground too wet, ground too warm, it’s not sticking.”

gally74

Rock on bring it