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Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

  • 19-02-2018 7:40pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    MOD NOTE

    This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling, flaming and personal abuse.

    Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

    And please don’t feed - report & let the Mod team deal with Troublesome Posters/Trolls




    Thanks There is some colder weather all the way from Siberia on the way for the weekend and for next week and this could bring with it very low temperatures and snowfall.

    There is a 50/50 risk of severe cold weather conditions effecting the country and a higher risk of moderately cold conditions nationwide.

    However, despite the uncertainty potential is growing that the event could be severe in nature. The east and south are most at risk of some heavy and disruptive snowfall through next week.

    Temperatures will fall away from Friday as an Easterly breeze becomes established, frosts will become more widespread and severe.


    Potential hazards ahead:

    Low Temperatures
    Heavy Snowfall
    Ice
    Severe Frost


    Potential Warning Levels - Yellow to Red

    I'd recommend whispering to friends and neighbors, the elderly at this point without going over board and with the proviso that the forecast still be taken cautiously. Be sure to keep up to date and have a hot water bottle at the ready. :)

    icon-0-168.png?19-12

    icon-1-180.png?19-12

    That is some serious stuff and very different to the type of Atlantic based cold periods we have had so far this winter. Worth noting these temperatures associated with this airmass (the upper air temperatures illustrated) are colder than any observed at any stage in both 2010 winters.

    So yeah, not your typical cold incursion to these shores.

    It will be a few days until we have rock solid agreement on the forecast from the computer models. For now they are converging on a potentially disruptive and maybe even severe solution.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 467 ✭✭ gerrybhoy


    In Kermit we trust


  • Registered Users Posts: 433 ✭✭ john why


    Bring it baby.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,841 ✭✭✭ fred funk }{


    Good stuff Kermie.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,836 ✭✭✭✭ Rock Lesnar


    Kermit has spoken, its almost certain to happen now, time to stock up on food, oil and firewood


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 force eleven


    Sensible post, we've all done the 'cold weather on the way' warning routine to family only to see it not happen. This one certainly looks like happening but how cold and how severe remains unknown. ECM looking back on board this evening after routing the worst cold to the south of us earlier. I'm not sure how much snow this could bring, easterlies are a fickle thing. Might need to check the pipe lagging though....


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  • Registered Users Posts: 480 ✭✭ little bess


    Ooh, I just know that something good is going to happen
    And I don't know when
    But just saying it could even make it happen...


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,592 ✭✭✭✭ pjohnson


    Ah for fcuk sake. The last spell has just ended. This is depressing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Depressing? Definitely wrong forum, escort that man to the gates.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    Good god... -14c 850 temps into the country with -15c over wales- the Irish Sea would turn into one hell of a snow machine

    216_mslp850uk.png

    ECH1-216.GIF?19-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,592 ✭✭✭✭ pjohnson


    Depressing? Definitely wrong forum, escort that man to the gates.

    I dont like frozen roads/pipes and left housebound. Dya know how bloody boring rural Galway can be :pac:


    I've only just got the TV back lastnight


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  • Registered Users Posts: 47,643 ✭✭✭✭ km79


    pjohnson wrote: »
    I dont like frozen roads/pipes and left housebound. Dya know how bloody boring rural Galway can be :pac:

    Im with you


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Ok, I'll admit, I might be as so slightly excited right now.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 gabeeg


    I knew it!


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Here she comes...

    ECMOPEU12_192_2.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    It finished up with a GH about to send a freezing northerly with a chunk of PV likely following - 2010 esque

    Yes please! :D

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 579 Soccarboy11


    Ah finally the thread has arrived, delighted!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,181 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    tonight has certainly been a game changer, lets hope all the models stick to this from now on. I don't think I could stomach another 2012 so soon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    Gonzo wrote: »
    tonight has certainly been a game changer, lets hope all the models stick to this from now on. I don't think I could stomach another 2012 so soon.

    Record breaking SSW, favorable MJO, low sunspots, Every model on board, UK met office very bullish, far more severe charts consistently showing - This one would be worse feeling if it falls apart to be honest...


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Don't jinx it Kermit ffs! Was hoping we'd play blind until it came into reasonable territory!


  • Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭ NMB


    CHOO CHOO !! Finally !!! All aboard ! I've been waiting for this thread for the last few days - my nerves from watching the FI posts are shredded !


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,448 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    After this evenings runs i think the only thing that stands between us and probably the strongest easterly in decades is Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

    The setup cannot be faulted.

    Id say if the same setup is being modelled through tomorrow this thread will likely be 20 pages long by tomorrow evening.......


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 gabeeg


    Correct me if I'm wrong - but if the ECM verifies we'd be looking at max temps of about -2 or -3, right?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 George Sunsnow


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Good god... -14c 850 temps into the country with -15c over wales- the Irish Sea would turn into one hell of a snow machine

    216_mslp850uk.png

    ECH1-216.GIF?19-0

    I was about to post that in winter,I knocked and knocked and knocked,they’d all left for the house party here :D

    But yeah that’s incredible
    It’s an ENE flow
    Full shower fetch on the Irish Sea
    A Reinforce the roof with steel girders and install lightning conductors chart for the east :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    It's already near -30 C in northern Scandinavia and also in parts of northern Russia, then higher pressure builds up and helps to flush that out into the developing easterly flow. If these 850s verify there would be potential for very heavy snowfall amounts. No way to guarantee details this far out but you would expect to find hours of heavy snow in a constant easterly flow with -12 or lower, and quite a long fetch inland with that.

    We're going to crash the internet if this actually happens.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    gabeeg wrote: »
    Correct me if I'm wrong - but if the ECM verifies we'd be looking at max temps of about -2 or -3, right?

    In Dublin City centre yes, -5c maxes possible in more rural areas. That would require being under a constant streamer of cloud cover and heavy snow though given the sun strength at this time of year( which by the way will just aid convective activity).

    These charts are just extreme, no other word for it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,592 ✭✭✭✭ pjohnson


    It's already near -30 C in northern Scandinavia and also in parts of northern Russia, then higher pressure builds up and helps to flush that out into the developing easterly flow. If these 850s verify there would be potential for very heavy snowfall amounts. No way to guarantee details this far out but you would expect to find hours of heavy snow in a constant easterly flow with -12 or lower, and quite a long fetch inland with that.

    We're going to crash the internet if this actually happens.

    Is it likely to go country wide or just easterly? Will Galway need to worry?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,498 ✭✭✭ SeaBreezes


    Forgive me if a stupid question, but twice now the morning ECM has favoured milder for us and the evening back in the game. Are the models using differing data sources morning and evening?


  • Registered Users Posts: 579 Soccarboy11


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    In Dublin City centre yes, -5c maxes possible in more rural areas. That would require being under a constant streamer of cloud cover and heavy snow though given the sun strength at this time of year( which by the way will just aid convective activity).

    These charts are just extreme, no other word for it.

    How's would the temps be looking for us in Cork City? :) iirc cork can be very snowed under from an easterly or very dry, but I'm not sure! Not sure how to tell general temps from the graphs yet! Thanks


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 gabeeg


    How's would the temps be looking for us in Cork City? :) iirc cork can be very snowed under from an easterly or very dry, but I'm not sure! Not sure how to tell general temps from the graphs yet! Thanks

    Cork?

    about 8 degrees celsius, with driving rain


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 George Sunsnow


    How's would the temps be looking for us in Cork City? :) iirc cork can be very snowed under from an easterly or very dry, but I'm not sure! Not sure how to tell general temps from the graphs yet! Thanks

    Oh I don’t think you have any need to worry!


This discussion has been closed.
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