Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

torres9kop · 20-02-2018 6:55pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Can you give an honest interpretation of what you see on the models now ?

Break it down like the good folks here ,

ECM
GFS
GEFS
GEM
ICON

I think you will find what they are all telling you is a cold blast of winter weather is due , how cold ,or snowy is another matter but again open to interpretation of what you think the models are showing

No. Ill stick to met eirenn with the unramped view

Youngpensioner · 20-02-2018 6:56pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Its an automated weather site , just churns out what the models are showing any given day , I find them absolutely rubbish outside of 48 hours personally ,

Same as the ones that give data on smartphones or accuweather

Yes but it's based entirely on the ECM data

TheMilkyPirate · 20-02-2018 6:56pm

GFS ensembles are good the OP was a bit of an outlier I'd love to post charts to illustrate but I'm currently on a phone from the 70s that struggles to log in to boards at all.

Youngpensioner · 20-02-2018 6:57pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Your post doesn't make the slightest bit of sense..... moving on.

I don't see how you mentioning Athenry recording -1 last night and met Éireann being wrong about it has anything to do with next week but I wasn't rude about it. My post made perfect sense, perhaps it was too hard for you to grasp.

MJohnston · 20-02-2018 6:57pm

Youngpensioner wrote: »

Yr weather 10 day forecast is made entirely of the ECM run, that's why. People don't like the truth.

Yr.no isn't particularly good at the truth tbh. I remember it *completely* missed Ophelia for one.

sparrowcar · 20-02-2018 6:58pm

Wow this thread is ruined already.. it's a real pity there can't be a 50 post rule that only allows you post in here once you've reached 50 posts.

nacho libre · 20-02-2018 6:59pm

bogman_bass wrote: »

It's obvious from reading this that none of you have had the joy of trying to feed cattle in the snow

I have done it in the past. Also worked outside in snow in other jobs.
I still love snow and always will!

I was logging on today expecting the worse, but it seems we are still on course for some snow.

sryanbruen · 20-02-2018 6:59pm

sparrowcar wrote: »

Wow this thread is ruined already.. it's a real pity there can't be a 50 post rule that only allows you post in here once you've reached 50 posts.

How would that work out?

pistolpetes11 · 20-02-2018 6:59pm

Youngpensioner wrote: »

Yes but it's based entirely on the ECM data

Doesn't matter its raw data , it not accurate , do you know how many possible solutions the ECM provides on each run ? and which one yr.no site uses ?

It use the mean of all the possible permutations , its an average basically

George Sunsnow · 20-02-2018 6:59pm

Youngpensioner wrote: »

Whether you like it or not the it's made entirely on the ECM run. Met Éireann being wrong last night means nothing in regard to it. And 3c this time of the year will lead to a lot of snow melt.

Please read my last post and it should be clear why an automated programme like yr no is often inaccurate

Rebelbrowser · 20-02-2018 6:59pm

torres9kop wrote: »

No. Ill stick to met eirenn with the unramped view

Please do. Their website is www.met.ie

And btw no one here is saying we know more than (or anything like as much as) met eireann

Youngpensioner · 20-02-2018 6:59pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Don't know why we are still replying to this fella or giving pessimists attention they're seeking.

So anyone who has a different opinion should just shut up? All I said was the ECM doesn't show anything extreme until day 10 which is fact. And to urge caution about it and I should shut up and I'm a pessimist?

munsterlegend · 20-02-2018 7:00pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Yr.no isn't particularly good at the truth tbh. I remember it *completely* missed Ophelia for one.

It's fine for general details but not specific ones. I had snow recently and it said rain all day.

Youngpensioner · 20-02-2018 7:02pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Doesn't matter its raw data , it not accurate , do you know how many possible solutions the ECM provides on each run ? and which one yr.no site uses ?

It use the mean of all the possible permutations , its an average basically

Yeah and those averages don't show anything extreme until 10. That's what I've been saying all along, don't see why I'm getting attacked for posting facts. Not by you, others.

dacogawa · 20-02-2018 7:03pm

Youngpensioner wrote: »

Yr weather 10 day forecast is made entirely of the ECM run, that's why. People don't like the truth.

As I mentioned near the start of this thread and a bit later on to yourself yr.no has been a bit off this winter, it use to be one of the better sites but has defiantly been wrong on at least 6 occasions I checked it this winter, in and out of Ireland.

It defiantly was not following the ECM precisely 24-48 hours ago...

Sure we'll see how it's going as the next one rolls out (right about now)

Soccarboy11 · 20-02-2018 7:03pm

Youngpensioner wrote: »

So the ECM completely missed Ophelia then , right.

No, he said yr.no completely missed Ophelia. As pistolpetes said we do not know what algorithm yr.no.uses for it's ecm stuff.

Can we please get back on track now.

pistolpetes11 · 20-02-2018 7:04pm

torres9kop wrote: »

No. Ill stick to met eirenn with the unramped view

The reason is you don't know , but are happy to cast judgement on others ability to do so .

ME don't ramp , they have a duty of care to people , even if there seeing what some in here see now the wont be giving any warning till there nearly 100% certain its going to happen ,

This forum as a hole is amateur and doesn't have that duty of care so we can speculate more on outcomes that we think may or may not happen , if your not happy with what you see then I suggest not reading or engaging with the thread

Youngpensioner · 20-02-2018 7:04pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

This is opinions now?

Ah Jesus.

I won't stoop to your level. Just commenting on the ECM shows, which is fact .

pistolpetes11 · 20-02-2018 7:05pm

Youngpensioner wrote: »

I won't stoop to your level. Just commenting on the ECM shows, which is fact .

MOD NOTE :
WE will leave it here and get back on track please folks

munsterlegend · 20-02-2018 7:06pm

Right lads it's ECM time. Fasten your seatbelt and enjoy the ride.

sparrowcar · 20-02-2018 7:06pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

How would that work out?

Basically you can post in certain weather threads or discussions but can't post in let's say for example threads where charts or actual data are posted. Once you hit over 50 posts in the weather forum then you could post in dedicated event threads. It would remove all the trolling and "will it snow on the Navan road on Tue" posts.

Basically making reading a dedicated event thread easier. It works on many other forum websites.

oterra · 20-02-2018 7:12pm

ECM rolling now. So far so good!

nacho libre · 20-02-2018 7:12pm

lucernarian wrote: »

If the high doesn't sink over us :pac:

You know well that's highly unlikely- given the hemispheric profile. I understand you fearing the worst though- as charts do look too good to be true. However even if they do downgrade somewhat, i still think we are in for some sneachta
next week.

sryanbruen · 20-02-2018 7:13pm

sparrowcar wrote: »

Basically you can post in certain weather threads or discussions but can't post in let's say for example threads where charts or actual data are posted. Once you hit over 50 posts in the weather forum then you could post in dedicated event threads. It would remove all the trolling and "will it snow on the Navan road on Tue" posts.

Basically making reading a dedicated event thread easier. It works on many other forum websites.

Fair enough, does sound like a good idea.