Irexit party yay or nay?

fash

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Thats what countries should be doing. QE is a terrible way to print your way out of debt. Austerity works, every single time and should be the default position when the economy declines.

Don’t forget the entire “when I has it, I spends it” McCreevy-nomics which caused most of the public debt problem. Some basic prudence and investment during the bubble would have prevented the problems with the bust. Being tied to the Euro should be an amazing benefit to Ireland (lower long term interest rates) - it is just awful local politics which led to the problems.

Ron86r

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Thats what countries should be doing. QE is a terrible way to print your way out of debt. Austerity works, every single time and should be the default position when the economy declines.

Didn't the USA implement QE early in the GFC, resulting in a recovery in all sectors of the economy while the EU implemented austerity, driving down the EU wide economy, along with the world economy. The EU economy is still languishing while the US economy is booming ( albeit within the capitalist economic cycle of growth and recession )..

Also, Australia gave all their citizens 1000 dollars when the GFC hit. Their economy has and continues to grow for the past 27 years.

I also understand that IMF implemented austerity absolutely destroyed the economies of countries, such as Zambia. Hence the IMF within the Troika asked the EU to ease up on Ireland with regard to spending cuts ( which I don't believe they did).

Ron86r

fash wrote: »

Don’t forget the entire “when I has it, I spends it” McCreevy-nomics which caused most of the public debt problem. Some basic prudence and investment during the bubble would have prevented the problems with the bust. Being tied to the Euro should be an amazing benefit to Ireland (lower long term interest rates) - it is just awful local politics which led to the problems.

I would question your point re being tied to the Euro being a benefit. It is inherently built on an unsound foundation. A Europe wide currency without a clear euro wide financial system. It is and always was a flawed premise.

Jim2007

Ron86r wrote: »

I would question your point re being tied to the Euro being a benefit. It is inherently built on an unsound foundation. A Europe wide currency without a clear euro wide financial system. It is and always was a flawed premise.

Well what is your solution to enable Ireland to trade in an undervalued currency at no expense to the exchequer then???

Kermit.de.frog

The government should prepare a detailed comprehensive plan for our own exit from the EU to have ready if needs be particularly if a public vote on the issue occurs.

We don't want a similar mess here to that in the UK if we decide to leave.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The government should prepare a detailed comprehensive plan for our own exit from the EU to have ready if needs be particularly if a public vote on the issue occurs.

We don't want a similar mess here to that in the UK if we decide to leave.

Why would they prepare and spend money and time on something that there isn't even an inking of being thought of, never mind the possibility of being put to a vote?

relax carry on

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The government should prepare a detailed comprehensive plan for our own exit from the EU to have ready if needs be particularly if a public vote on the issue occurs.

We don't want a similar mess here to that in the UK if we decide to leave.

Why would they spend time and resources on something there clearly is no desire for? If we ever get to the point where there is a desire then yes of course reports, plans etc will be drawn up which I'm sure will attempt to avoid the disaster Brexit is.

Jim2007

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The government should prepare a detailed comprehensive plan for our own exit from the EU to have ready if needs be particularly if a public vote on the issue occurs.

We don't want a similar mess here to that in the UK if we decide to leave.

Yes it is on their list of things on a rainy day when there is nothing on TV and they are bored out of their brain. They are expecting you to make a valuable contribution to it so get working on your submission now so you’ll be prepared.

rogue-entity

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The government should prepare a detailed comprehensive plan for our own exit from the EU to have ready if needs be particularly if a public vote on the issue occurs.

Even if they did have such a plan, why would they ever make it public knowledge? The GBP dipped after the result of the vote, before the UK Government had even considered acting on it, much less trigger Art. 50.

Right now the overwhelming majority are pro-Europe in this country, however, were that to change to the point where a leave vote would pass; I doubt I would be alone in moving my money out of Irish banks and consider relocating before Cyprus-style capital controls were implemented. We have a bright future in Europe, outside of it I can only see an economic slump like we had in the 70s and 80s - I don't want to go back to that.

In some ways this country is still trapped in the past, in many more ways it's forward looking and progressive, it would be a shame if we were to row back on all that we've achieved to satisfy some jingoistic nationalists.

Kermit.de.frog

If you regard yourself as a European nationalist you will be delighted with the coming integration, tax harmonisation and common army and transfer union.

I don't believe a majority of Irish people would accept that.

Remember this country was on the wrong end of a union in it's past. We don't want that again.

Also the notion that we are somehow trapped in the EU and if we dare leave we'll end up impoverished or punished is completely obscene. I'd rather not be a member of such a union.

I can live with the amount of integration to this point and see the benefits.

My worry is what France and Germany will press on with once Britain leaves.

It's the next treaty when people are going to see in text what more national sovereignty they will be told to surrender.

I don't think people in general will like it and on the tax side we are at serious risk.

That's my opinion and my concerns are very realistic and it's not being discussed at all in the fog of Brexit.

It should be because this is coming down the tracks fast.

micosoft

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you regard yourself as a European nationalist you will be delighted with the coming integration, tax harmonisation and common army and transfer union.

There is no such thing as a European Nationalist. When you frame the discussion only through the prism of an 18th century concept everything else you says is nonsense. You might well talk about the European tribe for all the sense that makes. You need to expand your horizon to consider that there are other ways of constructing the world other than nation states. And stop looking at alt-right youtube videos.

Kermit.de.frog

I have zero interest in 'alt right' videos. Kindly lose the condescending tone.

Nation states will always exist.

For us that should be Ireland not the EU.

And European nationalism may not be fully defined yet as a coherent public movement but it has emerged over the last 20 years. Those minded for an EU nation state do exist you know most notably, and this seen in the personalities in the EU parliament, in the geographical core.

They were never happy with an economic community and have always wanted full political union.

In my view inevitably this relentless and underhanded push, ignoring populations at all costs, is going to lead to serious strife and disorder across Europe.

We can only hope it does not get that far by changing the direction of the EU now and holding what we have in the bloc.

I'm not suggesting powers need to be handed back but that beyond the economic this integration should go no further with the provisio that under no circumstances should we be giving any tax powers from our country to Brussels.

PeadarCo

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

Also the notion that we are somehow trapped in the EU and if we dare leave we'll end up impoverished or punished is completely obscene. I'd rather not be a member of such a union.

We are not trapped in the EU we can leave when ever we want. Ireland pools sovereignty within the EU. Those with looser associations with the EU Norway etc surrender sovereignty on certain issues.

The EU is very hard to leave precisely because of how good a job a deal that it does with trade. The UK is finding that out big time. Now Ireland is a far far smaller economy than the UK and is extremely reliant on FDI. That reliance on FDI and exports in general to maintain the countries standard of living obviously is a big incentive to stay in the EU. De valera tried the whole self sufficiency thing back in the 30s 40s and 50s and the emigration figures for those decades tell their own story of how improvised Ireland was.

How would you manage to maintain Ireland current standard of living in the event of Irexit as you are proposing. What would be your plan, what would Ireland economy looks like? How would you deal with the fact that instead of being part of a market of 400+ million people you would now be looking at a market of 4.5-5 million people?

MrMusician18

Ron86r wrote: »

Didn't the USA implement QE early in the GFC, resulting in a recovery in all sectors of the economy while the EU implemented austerity, driving down the EU wide economy, along with the world economy. The EU economy is still languishing while the US economy is booming ( albeit within the capitalist economic cycle of growth and recession )..

Also, Australia gave all their citizens 1000 dollars when the GFC hit. Their economy has and continues to grow for the past 27 years.

I also understand that IMF implemented austerity absolutely destroyed the economies of countries, such as Zambia. Hence the IMF within the Troika asked the EU to ease up on Ireland with regard to spending cuts ( which I don't believe they did).

In a small economy like Ireland, quantative easing on the kind of scale required would have lead to massive inflation.

PeadarCo

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

They were never happy with an economic community and have always wanted full political union.

This is pure scaremongering. Yes you will get the odd politician coming out with some random comment along the lines you suggest. But politicians in Ireland come out with crazy stuff look at the Healy Raes.

On a more serious note the idea of a united States of Europe along the lines of the USA is pure fantasy. Look at the Euro zone crisis. Particularly the Greece issue. On one hand Germans and other rich countries didn't want to lend money to Greece and Greece had issues taking the money on the terms sent. Without getting into the wrongs or right in any country rich areas subsidise poorer areas. As in Ireland the Greater Dublin region and lesser extent Cork City fund the rest of country. By and large people don't have big issues with this. However even today Greece brought back up the idea of WW2 reparations. The idea that these two countries(and it's only one example within the EU ) would join together in a political union is fantasy. Indeed one of the big issues resolving some of the Euros structural weaknesses is the reluctance to join together in a closer union and the implications of that.

Kermit.de.frog

PeadarCo wrote: »

We are not trapped in the EU we can leave when ever we want. Ireland pools sovereignty within the EU. Those with looser associations with the EU Norway etc surrender sovereignty on certain issues.

The argument always seems to be "we dare not". That's how it comes across.

The EU is very hard to leave precisely because of how good a job a deal that it does with trade. The UK is finding that out big time. Now Ireland is a far far smaller economy than the UK and is extremely reliant on FDI.

Hence why we need to ensure tax sovereignty here.

That reliance on FDI and exports in general to maintain the countries standard of living obviously is a big incentive to stay in the EU. De valera tried the whole self sufficiency thing back in the 30s 40s and 50s and the emigration figures for those decades tell their own story of how improvised Ireland was.

I'm not arguing for any sort of "self sufficiency".

How would you manage to maintain Ireland current standard of living in the event of Irexit as you are proposing.

I'm not proposing Irexit. I'd like to see things hold as they are on the political side.

What would be your plan, what would Ireland economy looks like? How would you deal with the fact that instead of being part of a market of 400+ million people you would now be looking at a market of 4.5-5 million people?

You don't have to be political members of a market to trade with that market. Yes, you do have to abide by rules in relation to that trade but you don't have to be in the structures clearly.

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The argument always seems to be "we dare not". That's how it comes across.



Hence why we need to ensure tax sovereignty here.



I'm not arguing for any sort of "self sufficiency".



I'm not proposing Irexit. I'd like to see things hold as they are on the political side.



You don't have to be political members of a market to trade with that market. Yes, you do have to abide by rules in relation to that trade but you don't have to be in the structures clearly.

The current trend within the EU is that regional groupings of member states are forming to defend national governments against federalisation, so the Visegrad Group includes Poland, Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia, while we are in the Hanseatic League with Netherlands, the Nordic states and the Baltic States - both groupings rejecting tax harmonisation.

PeadarCo

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

Hence why we need to ensure tax sovereignty here.

Question what do mean by tax sovereignty? and how is the EU threatening it?

PeadarCo

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

The argument always seems to be "we dare not". That's how it comes across.

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

I'm not arguing for any sort of "self sufficiency".

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

I'm not proposing Irexit. I'd like to see things hold as they are on the political side.

So what are you proposing? You seem to be suggesting that Ireland look at leaving the EU but are afraid to call it that. What do you mean look at the "political side". If you are in favour of Irexit fair enough obviously I disagree on the merits of that idea but it's a view that you are entitled to.

The whole self sufficiency argument comes from the point how do you replace the EU trade? Now you could leave the EU and stay as part of the Single Market and Customs Union and Euro but you lose all control over the laws that govern those area's which if the EU members chose to could include tax in the future. It's a worse deal than EU membership.

Why would leaving the EU be a good idea for Ireland and why would it go better than Brexit(Ireland is a Eurozone member for added complications).

fash

PeadarCo wrote: »

The EU is very hard to leave precisely because of how good a job a deal that it does with trade. The UK is finding that out big time. Now Ireland is a far far smaller economy than the UK and is extremely reliant on FDI. That reliance on FDI and exports in general to maintain the countries standard of living obviously is a big incentive to stay in the EU

Precisely, it's hard to leave in the same way as a warm comfy bed filled with super-models is hard to leave on a freezing cold morning. The bed (or super-models) isn't/agent trying to punish you if you leave- you do that entirely on your own to yourself - and at the very least you should accept that.

Townton

PeadarCo wrote: »

Question what do mean by tax sovereignty? and how is the EU threatening it?

To over simplif it an EU threat would be the use of QVM to set tax rates in particular corporate tax rates at an EU level rather then at the NS level. Proposed mostly by larger less competitive MS as a way of eliminating our competitive advantage rather then under taking their own necessary economic reforms. It should absolutely be resisted.

oscarBravo

Townton wrote: »

To over simplif it an EU threat would be the use of QVM to set tax rates in particular corporate tax rates at an EU level rather then at the NS level. Proposed mostly by larger less competitive MS as a way of eliminating our competitive advantage rather then under taking their own necessary economic reforms. It should absolutely be resisted.

It doesn't need to be resisted. As I've pointed out so many times it's not even funny anymore: direct taxation is not an EU competence. The EU has no power whatsoever to set member states' corporate tax rates, and won't until the Irish people vote in a referendum to give it that power.

Jim2007

Townton wrote: »

To over simplif it an EU threat would be the use of QVM to set tax rates in particular corporate tax rates at an EU level rather then at the NS level. Proposed mostly by larger less competitive MS as a way of eliminating our competitive advantage rather then under taking their own necessary economic reforms. It should absolutely be resisted.

Read the treaties and understand what the EU is about....

Ron86r

PeadarCo wrote: »

We are not trapped in the EU we can leave when ever we want. Ireland pools sovereignty within the EU. Those with looser associations with the EU Norway etc surrender sovereignty on certain issues.

The EU is very hard to leave precisely because of how good a job a deal that it does with trade. The UK is finding that out big time. Now Ireland is a far far smaller economy than the UK and is extremely reliant on FDI. That reliance on FDI and exports in general to maintain the countries standard of living obviously is a big incentive to stay in the EU. De valera tried the whole self sufficiency thing back in the 30s 40s and 50s and the emigration figures for those decades tell their own story of how improvised Ireland was.

How would you manage to maintain Ireland current standard of living in the event of Irexit as you are proposing. What would be your plan, what would Ireland economy looks like? How would you deal with the fact that instead of being part of a market of 400+ million people you would now be looking at a market of 4.5-5 million people?

It can obviously be a flawed premise to compare one country to another but Singapore has thrived without being part of a union, political or monetary. It is a small country, practically an island nation ( bridge to Malaysia I think) and was an impoverished nation 70 years ago. Also a former British colony.

I see no reason why Ireland, with a comprehensive trade agreement with the EU, very liberal immigration policies and stable progressive government's, cannot thrive. By thrive I do not mean GDP growth I mean great infrastructure, policies that put people first not corporations, an environment that business can grow, make money but also give back to their societies. A society where cycles of truama are broken giving is a healthier, happier and more productive society.

Finally, to save people the time a) yes I know Singapore is not a democracy b) yes I know Ireland wasn't a colony c) yes I know Ireland is not located beside a country with booming growth like China.

is_that_so

Ron86r wrote: »

It can obviously be a flawed premise to compare one country to another but Singapore has thrived without being part of a union, political or monetary. It is a small country, practically an island nation ( bridge to Malaysia I think) and was an impoverished nation 70 years ago. Also a former British colony.

I see no reason why Ireland, with a comprehensive trade agreement with the EU, very liberal immigration policies and stable progressive government's, cannot thrive. By thrive I do not mean GDP growth I mean great infrastructure, policies that put people first not corporations, an environment that business can grow, make money but also give back to their societies. A society where cycles of truama are broken giving is a healthier, happier and more productive society.

Finally, to save people the time a) yes I know Singapore is not a democracy b) yes I know Ireland wasn't a colony c) yes I know Ireland is not located beside a country with booming growth like China.

d) we are not Singaporean.

Why is it people always ignore salient details like this when they want to do a wholesale import of another country's system as a "brilliant solution"?

luckyboy

oscarBravo wrote: »

It doesn't need to be resisted. As I've pointed out so many times it's not even funny anymore: direct taxation is not an EU competence. The EU has no power whatsoever to set member states' corporate tax rates, and won't until the Irish people vote in a referendum to give it that power.

Given the history of second EU referenda we have had in this country though, is it right to be entirely reassured that something is not presently an EU competence?

It is entirely plausible that we could, in some notional future, be asked in a referendum to cede our national power to set our rate of CT.

In that case, even if we were to reject it in a first referendum, it would be very difficult to maintain this in a second referendum, which would effectively be a referendum on us continuing to be a constructive EU member ...

Our history as an EU member is one of eventually falling into line: how realistic is it for us to retain a power that our fellow members don’t want us to retain?

murphaph

murphaph wrote: »

I certainly hope such parties never gain any traction. I hope for more European integration, not less.

Me too, as long as more integration means finally breaking the intellectual and cultural servitude to Englishness, English values and English ideas that has marked the "Irish" people since the 19th century. A parliament in Dublin means nothing, when they're still just aping England.

As somebody who lived in continental Europe and Scandinavia, an intellectually and culturally Eurocentric Ireland would be infinitely healthier than the myopic anglocentric Ireland that still has far too much traction in establishment Ireland. The Dublin media is extraordinarily intellectually anglocentric in aping English news stories and opinions - have a listen to the stories chosen on Marian Finucane's radio show each weekend, for instance - with all the journalists appropriately enough still members of the British NUJ. "No Irish culture here" could accurately be described as the attitude of every single fee-charging secondary school in Dublin, where anglocentricity is consciously brought to cringe-inducing levels.

The EU, which contains some of the most environmentally, socially and legally advanced and enlightened societies on this planet, is the only Irish hope for breaking free from the Irish establishment's narrow anglocentric worldview. As far as I can see the only Irish political party which has promoted an intellectual shift from this to a European worldview is the Green Party.

snotboogie

Ron86r wrote: »

It can obviously be a flawed premise to compare one country to another but Singapore has thrived without being part of a union, political or monetary. It is a small country, practically an island nation ( bridge to Malaysia I think) and was an impoverished nation 70 years ago. Also a former British colony.

I see no reason why Ireland, with a comprehensive trade agreement with the EU, very liberal immigration policies and stable progressive government's, cannot thrive. By thrive I do not mean GDP growth I mean great infrastructure, policies that put people first not corporations, an environment that business can grow, make money but also give back to their societies. A society where cycles of truama are broken giving is a healthier, happier and more productive society.

Finally, to save people the time a) yes I know Singapore is not a democracy b) yes I know Ireland wasn't a colony c) yes I know Ireland is not located beside a country with booming growth like China.

A) Singapore is a democracy C) Singapore is not located beside China D) Singapore is an ASEAN nation

caff

Can't see the Singapore model tying too well with the other nationalistic beliefs of the irexit supporters. Singapore has a huge number of immigrants (expats) living in it. 14% and rising https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/rapid-growth-singapores-immigrant-population-brings-policy-challenges
Singapore also has a massive amount of social housing with 80% of the population living in it https://www.economist.com/asia/2017/07/06/why-80-of-singaporeans-live-in-government-built-flats

PeadarCo

snotboogie wrote:

A) Singapore is a democracy C) Singapore is not located beside China D) Singapore is an ASEAN nation

Singapore is also a tiny country. Based on Wikipedia the country is only 130 square kilometres, whereas Ireland is over 70,000 Square kilometres. That has massive implications for the efficiency of supplying various services. The cost of the rural broadband scheme being but one example in Ireland.