Irexit party yay or nay?

ancapailldorcha

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Most ardent Irexiteers are members of UKIP in my experiance, so would have no problem with Ireland surrendering sovereignty to the UK.

Which is curious given that many prominent Brexiteers seem to feel the same way about the US.

FreudianSlippers

RandomName2 wrote: »

It means that you consistently ignore my point, made many, many posts ago



Not just state aid, but the effective location that multinationals pay tax. That's the reason why the issue is in relation to multinationals, and not exclusively domestic companies.




You have finally conceded defeat on something which I am unsure why you were arguing in the first place. Reminds me of the time when you said that Ireland couldn't be called the republic of Ireland or some such.

So.. the question 'would an Irexit party use Brexit and also the threats of political and legal action in relation to Irish policies in relation to multinationals to further their agenda'

I think we can all guess the answer. But before you jump down another rabbit hole, FreudianSlippers, I did a quick search of Irexit 'freedom party?' page and.. well there's not much there in general at the moment in fairness. The online paper Motley agrees with me, but you'd have to be a bit dense not to assume that this 'freedom party' (is that really what they call themselves? Wait, I don't care) wouldn't use that as part of their platform, provided that they make any platform at all.

Oh FS, you could argue that Brexit has no impact on our taxation laws. That'll keep you going for ages.






No you wouldn't. You've seen people make claims in relation to minimum wage as grounds for how to vote in referenda that were virtually unrelated to such matters. As the presence of these multinationals are largely due to Ireland being in the EU, and the consolidation of tax within Ireland is largely a manipulation of the multinational's presence within the entire EU being considered, this argument doesn't hold much water. Their use of it could theoretically affect the overton window, however.

I'm going to assume the argument is concluded, as you've consistently avoided actually debating the claim that an Irexit party would use attacks on multinationals to bolster their image, instead focusing exclusively on tax-harmonisation.

Is tax-harmonisation the equivalent of the race-card for pro-EU posters, who retreat behind it because that's where they feel safe? I'll keep an eye out for it going forward.

I've made no such concessions and it's clear that you don't have anywhere close to a shred of an idea what you're talking about.

I'm going to leave it there before I say what I really want to say and get banned.

prawnsambo

RandomName2 wrote: »

You're not going to get much of an answer because this thread is one of the worst echo chambers I've seen in a while, but I'd guess that the most ardent Irexiters would also be against surrendering sovereignty to the UK (in any form). Then there would be those who would be more pragmatic, and would have their minds changed by the economic consequences of Irexit in the first place.

It's a fairly academic question as it won't happen, given the current state of affairs.

Yes. It is an echo chamber. In much the same way as a thread about whether the earth is flat or not would be an echo chamber.

Imreoir2

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Who said anything about blindly rejecting Irexit Freedom, or the concept of Irexit? It seems to me that people have very strong and clear reasons to reject both, nothing blind about it.

There is never a good reason to blindly reject something.


There are perfectly good reasons to reject Irexit at this point in time - that is not the same thing as blindly rejecting Irexit, without looking at the pros and cons, and having the data readily available in the event of any changes in the future.


I'm against Irexit. I'm completely against rejoining the UK.
I am, however, more than happy to look at the disadvantages of being in the EU, vs. the advantages.


In this manner, ie: Constructive criticism, methods of improving the EU could be found, and, as I've said repeatedly, useful information can be collected, for reference purposes in the event of future political or economical changes.



Which is a perfctly valid viewpoint - unless someone has a reason to want to detract from rather important facts that should, arguably, be used in any and all decision making processes regarding the EU.....

prawnsambo

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yes. It is an echo chamber. In much the same way as a thread about whether the earth is flat or not would be an echo chamber.

At the same time, people are genuinely attempting to get reasoned debate out of it.

ELM327

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yes. It is an echo chamber. In much the same way as a thread about whether the earth is flat or not would be an echo chamber.

No, you'll find morons on the opposition of that too!
https://wiki.tfes.org/Frequently_Asked_Questions

Arthur Daley

Deleted User wrote: »

At the same time, people are genuinely attempting to get reasoned debate out of it.

Sometimes it's good if people can stand back and assess for themselves, where we are, and how we got here.

Budget 2019: Who still owes more – the Irish or the Greeks?
Ireland’s national debt is shrinking but don’t splash the cash just yet, we still owe more per head than debt-ridden Greece

Debt per person
A clearer way then of looking at our debt, is to consider how much debt, per person, our government would have to pay back to clear the debt. And this calculation is scary enough to make anyone think twice about a “giveaway”budget.
Yes, Ireland has the highest debt per capita of any country in the euro zone. We owe €42,800 per head, more than second-placed Belgium (€40,048) and far more than either Italy (€37,849); Greece (€30,417) or Spain (€25,081). And when you look outside of the euro zone, we’re not too hot either, just lagging the US (€54,000 ) and Japan (€83,000).
Indeed as a recent report from the Department of Finance asserted, “public indebtedness remains high in Ireland, both by historical and international standards”.
If the Government then, is keep the public finances under a tight leash and mitigate the negative impact potential external shocks such as Brexit could have, it will need to improve not just the optics, but the metrics, of Ireland’s public debt predicament.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-2019-who-still-owes-more-the-irish-or-the-greeks-1.3625800

FreudianSlippers

Deleted User wrote: »

I am, however, more than happy to look at the disadvantages of being in the EU, vs. the advantages.

What are the disadvantages?

fly_agaric

Deleted User wrote: »

There is never a good reason to blindly reject something.

True, but I think one can get a bit nervous seeing the crazy fever dreams that have taken on a life of their own among the public in the UK and the US.
It might be less likely to happen here but not impossible.
I think Anti-vaxx conspiracies for example have found some fertile soil in Ireland, so we are not immune from swallowing harmful nonsense.
Is "debating" + earnestly arguing the pros and cons of "Irexit" at this point just giving a platform to lunacy?

fly_agaric

fly_agaric wrote: »

True, but I think one can get a bit nervous seeing the crazy fever dreams that have taken on a life of their own among the public in the UK and the US.
It might be less likely to happen here but not impossible.
I think Anti-vaxx conspiracies for example have found some fertile soil in Ireland, so we are not immune from swallowing harmful nonsense.
Is "debating" + earnestly arguing the pros and cons of "Irexit" at this point just giving a platform to lunacy?

A quick reminder of Irish debt levels, in Euros, will be more than enough to wipe out any "lunacy", imho.


Many Irish people are struggling financially. They're not going to be stupid enough to cut off their nose to spite their face...


Neither is there a hope in hell that they're going to vote to rejoin the UK.


Sure, there will be a few who have illusions about automany. That's not a bad thing, though.


If we learned anything from the financial crises, it's that we should never all sing from the same hymn sheet.

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

What are the disadvantages?

Inability to set our own currency rates - which of course, can be both an advantage, and disadvantage, depending on the state of our economy.


The ECJ is, arguably, another disadvantage. Personally, I'd prefer to have full automany over our own legislation - or, at least, as much as is possible given our various international commitments.


There are undoubtedly more, which are undoubtedly more than offset by the advantages.


But that is not what's relevant, or what is influencing my stance.


The fact is, the majority of people do not know the advantages vs the disadvantages - and the average working parent has neither the time, nor the inclination to trawl through the Internet, and research all the information - and misinformation - out there.


Which is exactly why a party (a very small party, undoubtedly) which would force discussion, and therefore, knowledge of the facts, would be a good thing.


Such a party could only be a threat to the status quo if it were to become very popular.

I don't believe that's possible at this point in time.


I do believe it would force our Government, and civil service, to make the advantages of our EU membership clear, leading to an informed electorate, which can only be a good thing!


The old "It's the economy, stupid!" will always ring true.


The question is - if a time should ever come where EU membership is not an economic advantage, or considered socially unacceptable, then should we blindly stick our fingers in our ears, and remain ignorant of the facts, or should we be fully informed of the facts, and in a position to make an informed decision?


I'd argue that we should always be informed - even moreso because, as a democracy, we need an informed electorate.

Arthur Daley

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Sometimes it's good if people can stand back and assess for themselves, where we are, and how we got here.






https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-2019-who-still-owes-more-the-irish-or-the-greeks-1.3625800

What has this got to do with an Irexit party? There is absolutely nothing stopping anyone running on a manifesto which includes making capital payments towards our National Debt?

Arthur Daley

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What has this got to do with an Irexit party? There is absolutely nothing stopping anyone running on a manifesto which includes making capital payments towards our National Debt?

Well it might challenge the narrative that we are doing very nicely thank you very much. Let's have the status quo. Although the EU and it's associated bodies will be seen on this thread to have nothing whatsoever to do with these historic levels of debt. They can only claim the prosperity and all the good and nice things.

Observers should stand away and ask themselves is this really what is going on here. That is all.

PeadarCo

Arthur Daley wrote:

Observers should stand away and ask themselves is this really what is going on here. That is all.

What's going on is that Irish people don't like taxes and related charges ie property tax and water charges but want a continual increase in spending on housing, healthcare etc. Currently we are running a deficit despite the strong economy and there is no pressure to sort this out. If anything there's pressure to spend and reduce taxes. The EU is not responsible for that.

Arthur Daley

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Well it might challenge the narrative that we are doing very nicely thank you very much. Let's have the status quo. Although the EU and it's associated bodies will be seen on this thread to have nothing whatsoever to do with these historic levels of debt. They can only claim the prosperity and all the good and nice things.

Observers should stand away and ask themselves is this really what is going on here. That is all.

'The narrative' (this is a great way to build a strawman btw) is that we are recovering from an enormous economic shock, one which will take decades to completely resolve.



That is how we got to our level of debt.

Arthur Daley

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Sometimes it's good if people can stand back and assess for themselves, where we are, and how we got here.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-2019-who-still-owes-more-the-irish-or-the-greeks-1.3625800

Taking the Gross Government Debt, or the national debt, and simply dividing it by the national population is a laughably crude, meaningless statistic, and I cannot for the life of me understand why otherwise intelligent people bother with it. Is it to be unnecessarily alarmist?

Even quoting these figures as a proportion of GDP/GNI is pretty crude, but at least it gives the debt burden some kind of context.

The population that is alive and working in Ireland today, if we have any sense at all, has no intention of paying off our national debt. What exactly does this useless statistic purport to demonstrate?

Think about it -- you're describing a debt that will be serviced over many decades, in terms of a contemporaneous measurement. Why??

Arthur Daley

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

The population that is alive and working in Ireland today, if we have any sense at all, has no intention of paying off our national debt. What exactly does this useless statistic purport to demonstrate?

So we are planning sovereign default now. I give up.

Arthur Daley

Arthur Daley wrote: »

So we are planning sovereign default now. I give up.

No Arthur, the thing is that no modern country pays off its national debt, unless you're Greenland or South Sudan, and you don't actually have any external debt because you cannot find a creditor.

Ireland will continue to make capital payments towards its national debt, but we're mostly planning to service and roll it over indefinitely.

The population figure is irrelevant to our national/ GGD, because the amount of workers who will be servicing that debt into the future will be many, many multiples of the current population. There is absolutely no legitimate reason to describe the debt as a proportion of the current population.

Rhineshark

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Well it might challenge the narrative that we are doing very nicely thank you very much. Let's have the status quo. Although the EU and it's associated bodies will be seen on this thread to have nothing whatsoever to do with these historic levels of debt. They can only claim the prosperity and all the good and nice things.

Observers should stand away and ask themselves is this really what is going on here. That is all.

I have been and I'm not really sure what you are getting at.

Okay, so why is it all the EU's fault?

FreudianSlippers

Deleted User wrote: »

Inability to set our own currency rates - which of course, can be both an advantage, and disadvantage, depending on the state of our economy.

I'm not sure what you mean by "currency rates" but if you mean exchange rates, that's not something that is "controlled". If we floated a new currency it is the market that decides on its value - it's very likely that whatever new currency we floated would be extraordinarily poor value.

The ECJ is, arguably, another disadvantage. Personally, I'd prefer to have full automany over our own legislation - or, at least, as much as is possible given our various international commitments.

Nothing more than a sound-bite borrowed from Brexit. The ECJ is a court making decisions on EU law; nothing to do with national law or legislation.

There are undoubtedly more, which are undoubtedly more than offset by the advantages.

There aren't though and the ones you did list don't make sense. We shouldn't be giving any fuel to this crazy idea.

fash

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/irexit-party-launches-billboard-campaign-across-ireland-914027.html

So a billboard campaign by the Irexit crowd. What shady foreign entity is funding this I wonder?
Russia? Some US entities? Somebody from the UK?

Panrich

fash wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/irexit-party-launches-billboard-campaign-across-ireland-914027.html

So a billboard campaign by the Irexit crowd. What shady foreign entity is funding this I wonder?
Russia? Some US entities? Somebody from the UK?

Scaremongering ****e like this is lifted straight from the UK Brexit campaign. It worked there because nobody challenged it effectively. Appeals to emotion are very hard to counter because people who react positively to this kind of messaging are not engaging their brains.

Fortunately the best argument against this is playing out right now.

Hotblack Desiato

The campaign was funded by donations from members of the group.

Yeah right.

demfad

Foreign backing for Eurosceptic parties is from the Russia and from US RW billionaires/think tanks.

Farage connects the Russian and US alt-right in Europe.

Have a look at this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/18/nigel-farage-party-staffer-russian-embassy-smear-campaign-kremlin-critic

Two former staffers who worked for Farage’s Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy group (EFDD) and who spoke to the Guardian on condition of anonymity said a senior member of the group’s staff, a native of Malta named Kevin Ellul Bonici, was known to have a relationship with the Russian embassy.

Ellul Bonici was part of a small team who worked in the administration of the secretariat office at the EFDD until at least 2015. The EFDD would not answer questions about his current status. Several sources said Ellul Bonici was close at that time to Farage, who relied on the core secretariat staff to help manage the EFDD, a rightwing Eurosceptic group that is still led by the former Ukip chief and comprises 45 MEPs.

Note* Communications Director of that Office was none other than Hermann Kelly of Irexit.

According to the accounts of two former parliamentary staffers, in June 2015 a top aide to Farage named Michael McManus, who works for the EFDD, claimed to them that Ellul Bonici was a frequent visitor to the Russian embassy and had a relationship with officials there.

“I was told in June 2015 that this gentleman had a relationship with the Russian embassy in Brussels and that every time he came back from the Russian embassy he would return with a bootload of propaganda,” one former staffer told the Guardian.

Clearly this would have been known and assented to by the Communications Director in a small Office.

In December that year, the Maltese staffer walked into the European parliament and distributed hundreds of books to members’ pigeonholes without authorisation, according to the results of an internal investigation that was later conducted by the parliament’s security service.

The book was called Red Dalia, a highly critical biography of Dalia Grybauskaitė, the president of Lithuania and Putin critic, who weeks earlier had referred to Russia as a “terrorist state”.

The EU parliament investigated the incident after a Lithuanian MEP named Antanas Guoga issued a complaint. “I was really concerned that books were distributed by the help of the Russians. Russian propaganda issues are very sensitive in Lithuania and the EU,” Guoga told the Guardian.

A confidential 2015 memo by the EU parliamentary security service that was obtained by the Guardian stated that their investigation had found that Ellul Bonici – who was working at the secretariat of the EFDD – and three other men had distributed the books. The men had entered the parliament with Ellul Bonici. One was a Russian and the other was a Polish citizen who was born in Moscow. The fourth person was never identified."

Note the book had been translated to English by "someone" (the author was actually shocked) with many copies printed specifically for this purpose.

The EFDD said in a statement at the time that it had not authorised or supported the distribution of the books and that the issue would be subject to an internal review and “adequate follow-up”. Ellul Bonici’s wife, who is a Eurosceptic member of the European parliament and works closely with Marine Le Pen, denied in reports at the time that her husband had been involved.

Ellul-Bonici continued to work behind the scenes for Farage and uploads his EP "appearances" to Youtube where they are heavily promoted by RT gaming the algorythm.

To summarize:

With Kelly as Comms Director EFDD were regularly printing out of the Russian embassy in Brussels. They also distributed a book as part of an Russian active measure that included the books translation to English in order to attack a Putin critic.

Note Farage is connected to Bannon/Mercer who command the world wide online propaganda machine: Cambridge Analytica/AIQ/Emerdata; Breitbart, Gateway pundit, Gatestone Institute (ref Christchurch massacre) and millions of web pages to gather data and amplify disinformation.

This machine openly compliments and IMO coordinates with the Russian propaganda machine.

So, Irexit part of the more general RW/Russian destabilise the west war.

Quin_Dub

https://twitter.com/IrexitFreedom/status/1110947134902292480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1110947134902292480&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishexaminer.com%2Fbreakingnews%2Fireland%2Firexit-party-launches-billboard-campaign-across-ireland-914027.html

That poster is just straight up lies..

5 Bullet points about what a ""Normal Self Governing state can control"

Lower Taxation -
100% controlled by the Irish Government , Zero Influence or control by the EU
Job Creation -
100% controlled by the Irish Government , Zero Influence or control by the EU
Trade Globally -
Whilst it's true that the EU manages global trading deals, are the really seriously trying to suggest that Ireland could negotiate better deals on it's own????
Control it's Borders -
The real reason they exist , it's all about keeping out the "others"!!
House it's Families -
Again , 100% controlled by the Irish Government , Zero Influence or control by the EU.

So , in 5 lines of text they've manged 3 outright lies , a unicorn and a little bit of racism for good luck..

Top work..

ancapailldorcha

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That poster is just straight up lies..

5 Bullet points about what a ""Normal Self Governing state can control"

Lower Taxation -
100% controlled by the Irish Government , Zero Influence or control by the EU
Job Creation -
100% controlled by the Irish Government , Zero Influence or control by the EU
Trade Globally -
Whilst it's true that the EU manages global trading deals, are the really seriously trying to suggest that Ireland could negotiate better deals on it's own????
Control it's Borders -
The real reason they exist , it's all about keeping out the "others"!!
House it's Families -
Again , 100% controlled by the Irish Government , Zero Influence or control by the EU.

So , in 5 lines of text they've manged 3 outright lies , a unicorn and a little bit of racism for good luck..

Top work..

Unfortunately, lies are the core of the populist right though by no means exclusive to them.

Fortunately, the Irish electorate hasn't been subjected to the daily two minutes of hate the British electorate has so I can't see this catching on beyond the "Old man yells at cloud" types.

Alun

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That poster is just straight up lies..

I'd be willing to bet that the photo isn't of an Irish family either. Would love to track it down on shutterstock or wherever it came from!

fash

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That poster is just straight up lies..

5 Bullet points about what a ""Normal Self Governing state can control"

Lower Taxation -
100% controlled by the Irish Government , Zero Influence or control by the EU

I'd argue that by massively increasing FDI and other aspects of the economy, the EU has decreased taxation in Ireland.

Job Creation -
100% controlled by the Irish Government , Zero Influence or control by the EU

As above - booming economy due to EU membership compared to the alternative (potato exporting economy?), creates a lot of jobs.

Trade Globally -
Whilst it's true that the EU manages global trading deals, are the really seriously trying to suggest that Ireland could negotiate better deals on it's own????

it's the fact that we are a gateway to Europe that has allowed Ireland to trade globally
- they are effectively campaigning for Ireland to once again become a vassal state to the UK. See how that has been historically- as well as how the UK tried to behave towards Ireland during the brexit process.

Control it's Borders -
The real reason they exist , it's all about keeping out the "others"!!

Indeed nonsense- conflating the issues of freedom of movement with migration - especially given that we've had a very positive experience of EU migration - not to mention the benefits of freedom of movement to live, work and retire around Europe.

House it's Families -
Again , 100% controlled by the Irish Government , Zero Influence or control by the EU.

Again a stronger economy gives the Irish government more room to maneuver and hence more control - a positive EU effect.

So nonsense on stilts. And that is without considering the benefits of the EU - better FTAs, free movement, travel for healthcare, free roaming etc. etc.

Tacitus Kilgore

This is surely just the yellow vest crowd yeah?

Quin_Dub

Alun wrote: »

I'd be willing to bet that the photo isn't of an Irish family either. Would love to track it down on shutterstock or wherever it came from!

https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/portrait-happy-family-garden-156648317

Ask and you shall receive!! :-)

UK Image by the looks of the details...

Dytalus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Unfortunately, lies are the core of the populist right though by no means exclusive to them.

Fortunately, the Irish electorate hasn't been subjected to the daily two minutes of hate the British electorate has so I can't see this catching on beyond the "Old man yells at cloud" types.

I can't either, but my brain constantly reminds me of the worst possible "what-if" scenarios so I still worry.

These kinds of lies and populist speaking points are designed to evoke emotions, and bend those emotions to the populist right's cause. Even some of the most educated and normally logical people I know capitulate to their "gut feeling" or "everybody knows X" statements when it comes to matters they feel strongly about. I catch myself doing it more often than I would like, and I am generally pretty apathetic about everything.

If Irexit or [insert right-leaning populist movement here] can land a hook in people's emotions, it's going to be very hard to get them loose before Irexit reels them in. Brexit's going to do a number on our economy. I can see Irexit taking advantage of people's fears and hardships if that happens. If there's No Deal, there'll be a hard border going up and it will be all too easy for Irexit to twist that into anti-EU sentiment. "If it weren't for the EU, we wouldn't need the border." A lot of people don't understand the EU and how it works in any kind of depth, and they might genuinely think that the EU does, in fact, have some say in our tax rates outside of VAT. Particularly with the Corporate Tax in the news.

How many people in Ireland still blame "the EU" for article 11 and 13 of the Copyright directive, instead of blaming our MEPs who voted for it and our Ministers who agreed to it in Council meetings?

I don't suspect it will work as well as it did in the UK. We're much better about advertising projects and initiatives that are sponsored by the EU. We're much less vitriolic in our news. But I'm still wary of writing off Irexit altogether, particularly if they're going to keep getting "anonymous funding" to put up these kinds of posters. It's important to call them out when we see it, and fight them back when we can, or they'll feed and thrive on our apathy.

I'm worried that so long as they keep getting paid to lie to the Irish people, and so long as we tolerate them because "ah sure, they're harmless", they'll stick around and snag a few people here and there until they become a problem.

Or they might go the way of Renua and turn to dust after our next GE and I'm making a mountain out of a molehill. That's probably more likely.