Summer 2018 - General Discussion

blanch152

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I spent a few summers in London and I think this summer has been exceptional. They do tend to get nicer summer than us in Ireland but the summers there tends to be exaggerated. From my experience there, it gets warm but usually is in the low to mid 20s. Even look at Wimbledon every year, this year was an exception but most years they are plagued with rain delays and that is why they had to put a roof over the centre court, it was so disruptive for players and the public going to the matches.
To summarise I think the south east of England does get quite nice summers but it can be greatly exaggerated. I think statistically they get 3-4 days per year that hit 30 degrees or more. Again this summer very much an exception but this summer has been an exception everywhere including Ireland.
Really you have to go to continental Europe to get consistently proper summers. If you cross the british channel, the likes of Paris, Lyon, Toulouse, Marseille and pretty much all the major cities are far hotter and sunnier than the south east of England. I think the likes of London are just made to look better when comparing vs the emerald isle.
You could almost argue that Dublin has a different climate to most of Ireland in that it is so much drier on an annual basis. It is so interesting to look at annual weather data for Ireland and how dry Dublin is compared to other parts each and every year. Hard to know exactly why other than it is further from the west coast and less impacted by the Atlantic. I suppose the same is true of south east England and hence drier

Wicklow mountains to the southwest effect on Dublin?

Slashermcguirk

I spent a week in the West there and came back on Saturday. The warm weather in dublin the past few days it feels like I am in a different country. June and July have delivered really well for dublin. I have actually found July to be warmer, not sure is that statistically correct though?

Cloudier and cooler in dublin today but still 21 degrees all afternoon. I think it got to 25 the past couple of days

sryanbruen

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I spent a week in the West there and came back on Saturday. The warm weather in dublin the past few days it feels like I am in a different country. June and July have delivered really well for dublin. I have actually found July to be warmer, not sure is that statistically correct though?

Cloudier and cooler in dublin today but still 21 degrees all afternoon. I think it got to 25 the past couple of days

July is nearly always warmer than June. June 2018's mean temperature at Phoenix Park (randomly chosen for this post) was 15.7c whilst July's was 17.1c. Here's a graph of Phoenix Park's daily maximum temperatures for June/July 2018.

I much preferred June over July personally.



Data comes from Met Éireann.

Tigerandahalf

Is the forecast for Friday for midlands and east meant to be very wet? I was hoping to do a cycle and camp but would need it to be dry.

Thanks

Gonzo

just back from a 4 day trip to County Clare, it' feels far warmer here in the east than at any point I felt in the west since Thursday. Currently cloudy and 22C.

Tigerandahalf

Is anyone else here having a problem with the latest post not appearing when you go into it.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/gjvoldenborgh/status/1026211064285995009

Graces7

MidMan25 wrote: »

Warm and humid is fine. Humid and damp grey muck is deeply unpleasant.

cosy it is...

MidMan25

Graces7 wrote: »

cosy it is...

I'll have to disagree with you there. Cold weather and storms are cosy. Damp muck is anything but.

Harry Palmr

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Is the forecast for Friday for midlands and east meant to be very wet? I was hoping to do a cycle and camp but would need it to be dry.

Thanks

It'll be wet in the afternoon and overnight in the east and into Saturday.

As for today the sunny south east remained dry if not sunny between 12 and teatime.

Clonmel1000

Working in Brussels currently to those of you who enjoy hot sunny blue sky and beautiful warm evenings it’s fav here. No grey slate to be seen thank god. Proper heat proper good weather.

Mr.Wemmick

Working in Switzerland and have done, on and off, for years.. never known heat like it.

34 degrees today, it was 35/36 last week. Far too hot, uncomfortable at night.

Would love to feel the Irish west coast breeze on my face. It is to cool down somewhat here on Friday, to 24 degrees.

sryanbruen

Harry Palmr wrote: »

As Met Error can't even predict with any accuracy rainfall incidence, duration, levels for the south east of Ireland I'll take my chances with the UK met office.

That article is a actually a very poor rebuttal, if that's what it's intended to be (I'm always suspicious of trash media like the indo when it comes to accuracy) Wonder which meteorologist made the statement

It sounds like Evelyn Cusack to me knowing her TV forecasts in late 2013 and rants about long range forecasting.

I have no idea on where we will go with no real confident thoughts for the Autumn so far. Not very happy with the analogues this year for Autumn (yet).

Artane2002

nacho libre wrote: »

These warmer sea temperatures would be great if we got a potent and sustained north eastlerly from the Russian arctic in late November and December. It would be good to get some Thunder snow this winter. It's never too early to start thinking about a snowy winter:P

Hopefully the sea doesn't modify the air temps too much.

shakeitoff

I miss the sun and I miss the heat(well we had it over weekend) but what I really miss is the long evenings. It already feels like they're really closing in. Then you remember it starts to get dark before 8 in California and feel a bit better.

mg1982

Very nice day here bright with some sunny spells. Clouded over in the evening.

barneyrub

So if you had to pick Wed/Thurs or Fri for Dublin zoo which would be the driest/best?

km79

barneyrub wrote: »

So if you had to pick Wed/Thurs or Fri for Dublin zoo which would be the driest/best?

Not Friday

Sammy2012

We're headed to Portugal on sunday for 10 days. Anyone have any idea what the weather will be like? I know the heatwave will be over but will the weather go back to the cold/cloudy weather they have been having all summer or will it stay warm and dry??? I also know it's hard to tell this far in advance but looking for a general idea.

sryanbruen

This post is going to be about the seventh analogue I have picked for Autumn 2018 and it is on Autumns that followed on from "backloaded Springs". If you do not know what this means, it means Spring gets progressively warmer and drier after a very wet and or cool start. Spring 2018 was exactly this, March was one of the wettest on record and the coldest since 2013. April was very wet for many too but became much warmer than March whilst May was a very warm, dry and sunny month. A perfect textbook example of a backloaded Spring.

The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis for these Autumns shows very deep areas of below average heights over the Arctic Circle and down into the east of the UK with a mid-Atlantic ridge. This forces the winds to be from a northwesterly direction which in Autumn would be relatively cool but not exceptionally so. Temperatures would be rather below average but it'd be an unsettled Autumn due to how close the below average heights are to the UK and Ireland.



The Septembers aren't much different to the above reanalysis but the below average heights are over top of us than to the north or east of us meaning very unsettled and due to the wind direction coming from a northwesterly, cool month



The Octobers look cold and blocked. Stubborn mid-Atlantic ridge up to Iceland with the winds coming from a northeasterly. The trough is a bit far for good snow potential and thus it seems more settled especially out to the north and west of the UK and much of Ireland. It's similar to October 2010 though funnily enough, 2010 is not in the analogue.



The Novembers look very unsettled and relatively cool with again northwesterly being the main wind direction due to how the heights are aligned.



It'd be a fairly wet and cool Autumn overall. The deep trough of below average heights over Scandinavia in each of the months looks quite strange seeing how 2018 has fared that I don't think this is an especially good analogue to fit with the current scenario. Couple more analogues and we'll be looking at years that have appeared the most in the Autumn 2018 analogues (so far) which will give us an indication of the trends overall of these analogues for the Autumn 2018 forecast. From what I've seen so far, an anticyclonic October and an unsettled (may even be exceptionally so) November seem to be the trending signals.

sryanbruen

Sammy2012 wrote: »

We're headed to Portugal on sunday for 10 days. Anyone have any idea what the weather will be like? I know the heatwave will be over but will the weather go back to the cold/cloudy weather they have been having all summer or will it stay warm and dry??? I also know it's hard to tell this far in advance but looking for a general idea.

Looking at latest model runs..... Portugal seems mainly dry with variable amounts of cloud, temperatures in the high 20s at first then quickly rising to the low to mid 30s. The heat could really ramp up again mid-week next week onwards.

km79

Turned into a lovely afternoon and evening in east galway
Dry bright and breezy with great drying
Pleasant when the sun is out

About as good as can be expected and great for outdoor work

acequion

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Working in Brussels currently to those of you who enjoy hot sunny blue sky and beautiful warm evenings it’s fav here. No grey slate to be seen thank god. Proper heat proper good weather.

But Clonmel that's because this summer is exceptional. I lived in Brussels for 7 years and I can assure they get their fair share of grey slate, rainy days and lousy summers. Though that said, it's a much more continental climate so they do get fab heatwaves with Med style balmy nights especially in August, and in winter lots of very cold crisp days.

Mobhi1

This was probably a more typical Irish summer day. There was a mixture of cloud and sun. The high temperature was 19.3C, which I think is about the average summer high. It's currently 17.6C. All in all a very pleasant day.

acequion

Here in Quebec, Canada it gets dark around 8 [like California] but is brighter about 30 mins earlier in the morning than Ireland. Personally, I prefer longer evenings.

Gonzo

fantastic evening here at Dunshaughlin, blue skies and sunshine for the past 2 hours after a mostly cloudy day, still feeling mild outside.

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

fantastic evening here at Dunshaughlin, blue skies and sunshine for the past 2 hours after a mostly cloudy day, still feeling mild outside.

Yeah same here, just back from a spin on the bike and it was a great evening, decent enough headwind at times to.

Xenji

Heavy rain currently in Castlebar after a fairly nondescript day.

km79

km79 wrote: »

Turned into a lovely afternoon and evening in east galway
Dry bright and breezy with great drying
Pleasant when the sun is out

About as good as can be expected and great for outdoor work

I jinxed it

Artane2002

Amazing sunset in Portmarnock because of the different types, shades and height of clouds, creating some nice oranges and pinks. The evening in general has been very nice too.