Property Market 2018

tobsey

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

That's a 20 percent growth, or 5 percent a year. That's probably on the higher side of what would be normal but in my opinion the market will settle to a steady 3% growth year on year, with more expensive areas slowing a bit. This will radiate out from D4 etc as people are pushed further out.

It's even less than 5%, 4.66% actually. I know it's a more than the 3% you mention which seems like a reasonable amount, but it's not massive either.

Sleepy

matsy1 wrote: »

House prices really haven't gone up that much. I bought a house in 2014 for €250k in Dublin, in 4 year's it has maybe gone up €50k. A jump but nothing out of control. I do think that if interest rates go up, a lot of people will try downgrade from their 400k homes, those who can barely afford as it is.

Are you sure you're not undervaluing your property?

We bought in North County Dublin in Aug 2016 for 230k. The last house on our road sold for 310k in September and another is apparently sale agreed at 325k.

That'd be 34.7% or a 41.3% increase over the two years.

Now, granted, we bought the worst house on a good road and have put approx 25k and hundreds of hours of DIY into it, but even if you factor that 25k into the calculations it'd still be a 23.9 to 30.4% increase over those 2 years (or even a bit higher as ours is extended to a 4 bed whereas the other two were an unextended 2 bed and a smaller extended 3 bed respectively)

Mickiemcfist

tobsey wrote: »

It's even less than 5%, 4.66% actually. I know it's a more than the 3% you mention which seems like a reasonable amount, but it's not massive either.

Must have overpaid in 2014, or something has happened that the area/house has become undesirable, as the anecdotal growth rates are significantly below any other house in Dublin.

JDD

My old neighbours bought their house in Booterstown for €280k at the bottom of the market in 2012. And it was in really good nick, though they've converted the attic into a fourth bedroom since, which probably cost around €25k. The last similar house to go on sale in the same estate (also with a converted attic room) sold for €610k. So that's more or less a 100% increase in price. That being said, I think the houses were undervalued in 2012, and are overvalued now, but it's an enormous increase no matter what way you cut it.

snotboogie

sunnyday1234 wrote: »

Nor will any large amount of multinationals pull out of Ireland. We are a superb country to do business in, people love moving to and living here and the top brass from the states love to visit. Yes they might move manufacturing and contract from time to time but its highly unlikely they would actually close up shop
Look at Dell - they let go 2000 in limerick years ago from manufacturing but now they have over 5000 staff in ireland

That’s more to do with the EMC group purchase than deliberate expansion in Ireland. EMC, VCE, VMware all have a massive presence here and have all fallen under the Dell umbrella

matsy1

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

That's a 20 percent growth, or 5 percent a year. That's probably on the higher side of what would be normal but in my opinion the market will settle to a steady 3% growth year on year, with more expensive areas slowing a bit. This will radiate out from D4 etc as people are pushed further out.

True but that's coming out of a recession. I do think house prices in Dublin are pretty high. But a couple who's combined earnings are in and around 80k can afford to live in a decent enough house in Dublin if they can somehow save for the deposit.

I'd be one of the first on the new ladder, my small equity will pay most of the deposit on the next house and so on with even 3% growth. Unfortunately getting onto the first step of the ladder is the problem, or being stuck up a fake ladder is another.

It seems the market has completely settled now, maybe dreams of recession or Brexit fears but the bidding wars of the past year have stalled and offers below asking prices are being accepted again.

KevinCavan

I can see a three bed in Clonsilla reaching €2,000,000 in value. There is no other way. House prices can’t fall. There can’t be any other way, the only way is up.

beauf

There are a good few houses of 2m and morein Dublin 15. If you have been tracking their prices they have dropped 50% and gained some of it back. But not yet reached peak. They seem to be effected more than less expensive houses.

Topgear on Dave

I think some folks my have misunderstood the previous points about FDI.

Nobody need worry about ALL the multinationals pulling out of Ireland, that won't happen.

What's worrying is that the government takes in a large amount of tax from a very small number of these companies. If some of these few have a problem it will hit the tax intake fast.

Good article here.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/department-warns-that-corporation-tax-is-a-risk-1.3349751?mode=amp

"The report cautioned, however, that nearly two-thirds of tax receipts came from a small number of firms paying in excess of €10 million annually and that almost 40 per cent of total revenue could be linked to just 10 companies."

matsy1

KevinCavan wrote: »

I can see a three bed in Clonsilla reaching €2,000,000 in value. There is no other way. House prices can’t fall. There can’t be any other way, the only way is up.

Will a Mars bar cost a grand? They've been rising in price for as long as I can remember, although an out of date or damaged Mars bar can be bought at a knocked down price.

Topgear on Dave

matsy1 wrote: »

Will a Mars bar cost a grand? They've been rising in price for as long as I can remember, although an out of date or damaged Mars bar can be bought at a knocked down price.

They keep getting smaller too!

matsy1

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Must have overpaid in 2014, or something has happened that the area/house has become undesirable, as the anecdotal growth rates are significantly below any other house in Dublin.

At this moment in time, according to the estate agents from selling and buying, there's a real slow down in the market, a good time for ftbs id say. The bidding wars of the past couple of years have slowed down(obviously some exceptions). Houses in good areas on the market for months, seller's refusing to let go for lower offers.

I probably overpaid by 25k in 2014, bidding wars on every property I viewed. This time estate agents are reluctantly telling me that the asking price will be accepted. And my property that I fully expected to make at least 80k-90k(looking at neighbours etc ) is looking likely to be 50k or hopefully 60k.

This could all change in January. Im talking about for the past couple of months to present.

Glenbhoy

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Must have overpaid in 2014, or something has happened that the area/house has become undesirable, as the anecdotal growth rates are significantly below any other house in Dublin.

Houses (three within a few months) round my way sold for 450k in 2014, almost identical (condition too) on market presently for 525k having dropped from 595k. Prices have risen, but not all boats have caught the same wave.

bri007

Houses out my way we’re selling for €390-€410k January-March this year, 2 sold across the road from me.

My friend and his partner just went sale agreed on a house 5 doors down from my parents house, on the market for €420k went sale agreed for €375k after being reduced twice. Lovely house all mod cons done to it.

Prices are going below asking in some areas it appears, we are looking at buying as well, although we haven’t got that big of a budget so we are looking in different areas but we are getting similar scenarios.

mkdon

bri007 wrote: »

Houses out my way we’re selling for €390-€410k January-March this year, 2 sold across the road from me.

My friend and his partner just went sale agreed on a house 5 doors down from my parents house, on the market for €420k went sale agreed for €375k after being reduced twice. Lovely house all mod cons done to it.

Prices are going below asking in some areas it appears, we are looking at buying as well, although we haven’t got that big of a budget so we are looking in different areas but we are getting similar scenarios.

where bouts

Zenify

Over the last 3 years I've been looking at second hand properties in south Dublin and I've constantly been surprised with asking and selling prices of properties. In the last 3 months that surprise has changed from how high to how low (only by comparing to the start of the year). I haven't seen the selling prices for these properties yet just the asking prices. What was late 400s in January/Feb is now low 400k.

KevinCavan

Zenify wrote: »

Over the last 3 years I've been looking at second hand properties in south Dublin and I've constantly been surprised with asking and selling prices of properties. In the last 3 months that surprise has changed from how high to how low (only by comparing to the start of the year). I haven't seen the selling prices for these properties yet just the asking prices. What was late 400s in January/Feb is now low 400k.

Careful you’ll get attacked here for saying anything but house prices are going up. People who are paying €2000 a month of a mortgage don’t like such comments.

Cyrus

KevinCavan wrote: »

Careful you’ll get attacked here for saying anything but house prices are going up. People who are paying €2000 a month of a mortgage don’t like such comments.

Asking prices are irrelevant there is data showing what houses are selling for

Zenify

I think there is a lot of vested interest about property news, not only on boards but many forms of media. KevinCavan, I dont think it's the mortgage owners but I could be wrong. A mortgages of €2,000 is still less than rent and I dont see prices coming down faster than the cost they would have spent on rent in the long term.

I honestly hate any article from a vested interest being passed off as an independent report. Davy is the biggest example of this, they are one of Irelands largest property investors and always do the reports. They have 1.5 billion invested in Irish property. Of course they are going to say prices are going to go up.

I honestly don't know what could happen in 2019 but I am excited to see. We could see property rises again in January due to exceptions back on the table, or banks could take the opposite approach and get more careful due to prices cooling off. Either way I'm excited to see what happens.

beauf

KevinCavan wrote: »

Careful you’ll get attacked here for saying anything but house prices are going up. People who are paying €2000 a month of a mortgage don’t like such comments.

Anyone with a mortgage won't care it makes no difference to them. They are already committed. The only people who care are those selling and buying.

smurgen

Stock market gains for 2018 wiped out and U.S banks forecasting a decline next year. The correction is beginning.

Zenify

Cyrus wrote: »

Asking prices are irrelevant there is data showing what houses are selling for

That data is from a few months ago and irrelevant to what the property market is doing today. It was mentioned that the selling price wasnt available with the data in the previous post.

Sarn

Speaking for where we live in Dublin. At the start of the year up to June, house prices in our area were averaging €510-525k. Four houses have since gone sale agreed and sold over the course of the summer, taking two to four weeks to go sold. From the PPR they all went for between €570 and €585k, this was after the asking prices were reduced and subsequently exceeded. These houses were all comparable in condition, although the aspect and location were not as good. Another two have recently sold and they appear to have sold for a similar price.

It really depends on the segment and the area the houses are in. I don’t doubt that some vendors have gotten carried away with their asking and have had to row back on prices.

KevinCavan

There’s unlikely to be any “correction” in the market in 2019, but I think it’s foolhardy the way some expect that we’ll never have s fall in house prices again. There will be a slow down in the property market, but not for about 3 years I estimate.

sightband

KevinCavan wrote: »

There’s unlikely to be any “correction” in the market in 2019, but I think it’s foolhardy the way some expect that we’ll never have s fall in house prices again. There will be a slow down in the property market, but not for about 3 years I estimate.

Why 3 years?

Anecdotal stuff here, but this is my experience. I got speaking to my kids friends dad who is a small time developer/builder in UK market...he buys houses with a partner and they renovate and flip the properties for between 10%-15% profit. They usually have about 5 properties on the go. I asked why he didn’t do the same here as he works away from family Monday-Friday. He said he wouldn’t touch the Irish market as it’s far too turbulent and unpredictable citing bidding in particular. He said when it comes down to the wire people in UK bid in the hundreds, here you are lucky if it’s in the low thousands. Low and behold this came to fruition in my case...house asking was 465k, came down to the wire at 495k which was our bid and only us and another bidder and then they come back with a 520k counter bid. We were gone at anything over 500k. Agent showed me the log book as I requested and was left itching my head telling them they could inform the other person they just blew the guts of 18k on nothing. yes they got the house but it is this type of stupidity that has our market in such turmoil. Too many idiots with money, or banks money.

Cyrus

Zenify wrote: »

That data is from a few months ago and irrelevant to what the property market is doing today. It was mentioned that the selling price wasnt available with the data in the previous post.

The only reliable guide we have on property prices is what they are actually selling for

All else is conjecture, anecdotes and speculation.

KevinCavan

sightband wrote: »

Why 3 years?

Anecdotal stuff here, but this is my experience. I got speaking to my kids friends dad who is a small time developer/builder in UK market...he buys houses with a partner and they renovate and flip the properties for between 10%-15% profit. They usually have about 5 properties on the go. I asked why he didn’t do the same here as he works away from family Monday-Friday. He said he wouldn’t touch the Irish market as it’s far too turbulent and unpredictable citing bidding in particular. He said when it comes down to the wire people in UK bid in the hundreds, here you are lucky if it’s in the low thousands. Low and behold this came to fruition in my case...house asking was 465k, came down to the wire at 495k which was our bid and only us and another bidder and then they come back with a 520k counter bid. We were gone at anything over 500k. Agent showed me the log book as I requested and was left itching my head telling them they could inform the other person they just blew the guts of 18k on nothing. yes they got the house but it is this type of stupidity that has our market in such turmoil. Too many idiots with money, or banks money.

I think that the houses can’t keep rising beyond another 3 years. The madness will eventually subside when prices reach certain levels

Bluefoam

When the market starts to show real signs of slowing, the central bank will alter the rules to allow easier access to funds... At the moment the market is actually being held back artificially.

There's plenty of people on here moaning that houses are too expensive. But they are only too expensive for those who cannot afford them... Those who can afford are buying property and not moaning about the market.

Bluefoam

sightband wrote: »

KevinCavan wrote: »

There’s unlikely to be any “correction” in the market in 2019, but I think it’s foolhardy the way some expect that we’ll never have s fall in house prices again. There will be a slow down in the property market, but not for about 3 years I estimate.

Why 3 years?

Anecdotal stuff here, but this is my experience. I got speaking to my kids friends dad who is a small time developer/builder in UK market...he buys houses with a partner and they renovate and flip the properties for between 10%-15% profit. They usually have about 5 properties on the go. I asked why he didn’t do the same here as he works away from family Monday-Friday. He said he wouldn’t touch the Irish market as it’s far too turbulent and unpredictable citing bidding in particular. He said when it comes down to the wire people in UK bid in the hundreds, here you are lucky if it’s in the low thousands. Low and behold this came to fruition in my case...house asking was 465k, came down to the wire at 495k which was our bid and only us and another bidder and then they come back with a 520k counter bid. We were gone at anything over 500k. Agent showed me the log book as I requested and was left itching my head telling them they could inform the other person they just blew the guts of 18k on nothing. yes they got the house but it is this type of stupidity that has our market in such turmoil. Too many idiots with money, or banks money.

There were probably just pissed of that another bidder was slowing down the sale by bidding in (what they may consider) ridiculously low increments. They bought the property at a price that they considered value and obviously made a clear statement that they would clean the floor with your bid...

sightband

Bluefoam wrote: »

There were probably just pissed of that another bidder was slowing down the sale by bidding in (what they may consider) ridiculously low increments. They bought the property at a price that they considered value and obviously made a clear statement that they would clean the floor with your bid...

And that statement cost them about €18k