Share Picks 2018

b4bmm

Wow congrats, KRC has been on fire.
Almost the same MC as TAW last I checked. Be careful.

ionapaul

Thinking about betting against the market for the 2nd time in just over a decade; made a good bit before the last correction by getting into ProShares Ultrashort S&P500 2x Reverse Tracker (SDS), want to do exactly the same now after selling a good few of my core holdings. Looks like I can buy SDS via my Davy account but can't find it in DeGiro - can anyone else see it? Only opened a Degiro account in the last year, haven't used it yet but want to save a few $$$ over Davy if possible!

Thargor

You think things are going south soon?

ionapaul

Thargor wrote: »

You think things are going south soon?

Obviously can't be sure about anything (otherwise we'd all be millionaires, right? ) but I think the wider worldwide market is overvalued and shorting the S&P500 is a good way to profit from any general pullback. Have sold a number of dividend-focused ETFs in recent days that I bought in 2011/2012 (so saw decent price growth in addition to the dividends) and will probably continue to reduce exposure to the market. Keeping some long-held equities and ETFs (including one tracking gold prices, which is a hedge in itself), so SDS would probably go up or down in opposition to the rest of the stuff held!

garrettod

ionapaul wrote: »

....by getting into ProShares Ultrashort S&P500 2x Reverse Tracker (SDS), ....

In very simple terms, is this a fund that one buys shares / units in, with the fund managers taking various positions against the S&P, or is there more to it than that ?

Thanks.

ionapaul

S&P goes down 1%, SDS price increases 2%. The reverse is equally true! So stay away if you think this 9-year old bull run has a long way to go.

Just looking back at my records, bought SDS that other time on 11/01/2008 and sold on 09/10/2008 for an almost 100% return, so the index itself fell by almost 50% during that time; I remember realising a few weeks later that I probably sold too soon as it continued to drop but it's hard to catch the falling knife etc...

littlevillage

Prezatch wrote: »

More than doubled my holding in TAW lastnight. It looks like the merger with AMAL is going to happen which should generate some nice synergies. The ramp up to second phase is being heavily pushed by the Chinese investors. Significant drill results expected during April to increase the mine life, one of the main factors keeping the share price low. Drilling has been neglected up on until now by this company in favor of getting funding, building the plant and being the next producer of lithium, right behind the giants Galaxy and Pilbarra. This is most definitely a low risk, high return stock. I think a target price of 80c in the next 6 months is not out of the question.

Just going to make a contrarion point of view here guys....(for the record, I have TAW shares, thanks B4bmm !!) but the biggest Lithium producer in the world SQM (Chile) is effectively signaling that they are going to swamp the market with cheap Lithium and run the other producers out of town....is this not a big threat to the likes of TAW, Pilbarra etc. Who are tiny in comparison?

I know that Lithium from Brine (SQM) is a little different than that which is mined from rock (TAW) and refined etc. and possibly lower grade.

But a large producer signalling this, has to be a danger right?

b4bmm

littlevillage wrote: »

Just going to make a contrarion point of view here guys....(for the record, I have TAW shares, thanks B4bmm !!) but the biggest Lithium producer in the world SQM (Chile) is effectively signaling that they are going to swamp the market with cheap Lithium and run the other producers out of town....is this not a big threat to the likes of TAW, Pilbarra etc. Who are tiny in comparison?

I know that Lithium from Brine (SQM) is a little different than that which is mined from rock (TAW) and refined etc. and possibly lower grade.

But a large producer signalling this, has to be a danger right?

SQM said no such thing but commentators have made the inference that they will do that. They came to a resolution with CORFU which allows them to increase production but they get heavily penalised by the Chilean government for doing so through royalties and taxation. Not only that this current agreement runs out in 2030, brine operations can take a long time to come online and its not feasible for SQM to pump in huge amounts of capital with an unknown future to base that investment decision.

This is why they will likely turn there near term focus to Australia where they are in a 50/50 Jv with KDR, its a more stable investment destination.
Will they increase production, yes but not to the degree many fear mongers make out.

I think this lithium podcast address the issues.

http://lithiumpodcast.com/podcast/the-wizards-of-oz/

retalivity

Any interest in facebooks nosediving shares? Currently $155, down 20ish% since end of jan. If it gets to 140 i may jump on

Captainsatnav

retalivity wrote: »

Any interest in facebooks nosediving shares? Currently $155, down 20ish% since end of jan. If it gets to 140 i may jump on

Nah this social media thing won't catch on.

Gruffalo22

retalivity wrote: »

Any interest in facebooks nosediving shares? Currently $155, down 20ish% since end of jan. If it gets to 140 i may jump on

Mark can't get rid of them fast enough

http://www.openinsider.com/screener?s=FB&o=&pl=&ph=&ll=&lh=&fd=730&fdr=&td=0&tdr=&fdlyl=&fdlyh=&daysago=&xp=1&xs=1&vl=&vh=&ocl=&och=&sic1=-1&sicl=100&sich=9999&grp=0&nfl=&nfh=&nil=&nih=&nol=&noh=&v2l=&v2h=&oc2l=&oc2h=&sortcol=0&cnt=100&page=1

They were 26USD in 2013 so I'd like to see how far they fall

evolving_doors

Gruffalo22 wrote: »

Mark can't get rid of them fast enough

http://www.openinsider.com/screener?s=FB&o=&pl=&ph=&ll=&lh=&fd=730&fdr=&td=0&tdr=&fdlyl=&fdlyh=&daysago=&xp=1&xs=1&vl=&vh=&ocl=&och=&sic1=-1&sicl=100&sich=9999&grp=0&nfl=&nfh=&nil=&nih=&nol=&noh=&v2l=&v2h=&oc2l=&oc2h=&sortcol=0&cnt=100&page=1

They were 26USD in 2013 so I'd like to see how far they fall

It's going the way of Bebo.
Kids in my school laughed when I asked em if Facebook was still popular... they said only their grannies use it

b4bmm

littlevillage wrote: »

Just going to make a contrarion point of view here guys....(for the record, I have TAW shares, thanks B4bmm !!) but the biggest Lithium producer in the world SQM (Chile) is effectively signaling that they are going to swamp the market with cheap Lithium and run the other producers out of town....is this not a big threat to the likes of TAW, Pilbarra etc. Who are tiny in comparison?

I know that Lithium from Brine (SQM) is a little different than that which is mined from rock (TAW) and refined etc. and possibly lower grade.

But a large producer signalling this, has to be a danger right?

This video answers your questions too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=265&v=WnIKMmxqwEc

drunkmonkey

Anyone holding Disney for the long term, are we getting close to a good entry point?

dingdong1234567

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Anyone holding Disney for the long term, are we getting close to a good entry point?

Us or EUR?

garrettod

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Anyone holding Disney for the long term, are we getting close to a good entry point?

No, but would have an interest if the price was a bit lower. I think they will continue to be one of the power houses (even if they don't get Sky, as part of their proposed deal with Murdoch); and not withstanding the likes of Amazon Prime and Netflix making serious inroads into the pay tv market etc.

As an aside, there is a very nice presentation share cert you can get (don't think they actually do share certs anymore, except as a kinda gift in a frame) online, if you fancy it. Can't recall where I saw it, but it's on the web and is a genuine share cert afaik. I know someone who is Disney mad, have always meant to get her one of them.

drunkmonkey

Had a look you can get them from Disney for $50. https://shareholder.broadridge.com/disneyinvestor/

littlevillage

b4bmm wrote: »

This video answers your questions too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=265&v=WnIKMmxqwEc

Thanks for the recordings. Interesting. So in summary, the Lithium producers in Austrailia are not particularly worried about SQM as the quality of the Lithium produced in Austrailia (and refined in China) is of a higher grade than that coming out of South America (brine). Also SQM will not realisticslly be able to achieve the larger Lithium outputs being reported, inside 2 or 3 years (if ever) and even if they do, its doubtful if they can make it commercially viable due to royalty clawcbacks etc. in Chile.

littlevillage

Anyone care to speculate when it will be time to get back into Facebook shares?

Trading at around $154 now, down from $185 back on March 16th before the Cambridge Analytica scandal broke thats about a 17% fall.

garrettod

littlevillage wrote: »

Anyone care to speculate when it will be time to get back into Facebook shares?

Trading at around $154 now, down from $185 back on March 16th before the Cambridge Analytica scandal broke thats about a 17% fall.

You may as well be asking how long is a piece of string

From here it seems that they are next due to announce results around 2nd May 2018, so that's an important date to keep in mind.

Aside from the potential for a very good set of results on the above date, I think I'd be keeping well clear of Facebook stock until late summer - give it a bit of time for the negative press to die down, the traditional summer sell off to have taken place, Trump to have found something new to play with, instead of his current potential trade wars etc.

All easy for me to say, when I've no interest in this stock tbf

butrasgali

Would any of ye think dalata are a good investment at the moment

littlevillage

butrasgali wrote: »

Would any of ye think dalata are a good investment at the moment

I assume you are tempted by the 8% drop in the share price over the last 10 days or so?
I think Dalata has been discussed previously on this tread or possibly the 2017 version

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057688516

with the consensus being, that they are a good operation, and it has been a great ride for those you got in on the shares 12-18 months ago, but now the upside might be limited. My own opinion is that they are solid and you will probably match the ISEQ in terms of gains/losses. No better no worse.

Cute Hoor

Lash_Alert wrote: »

Any thoughts on shire? Been holding a while but seems market uncertainty around this company split has people worried. Seriously undervalued in my eyes

Good news (at last) for you this morning with an approach from Japan.

Cute Hoor

butrasgali wrote: »

Would any of ye think dalata are a good investment at the moment

See drunkmonkey's post on 15/2/2018 (page 13), he/she didn't elaborate on why

Captainsatnav

Cute Hoor wrote: »

See drunkmonkey's post on 15/2/2018 (page 13), he/she didn't elaborate on why

The Munk advised me privately and I was happy to take it and I thank him / her. 100% my own decision to sell.

drunkmonkey

Captainsatnav wrote: »

The Munk advised me privately and I was happy to take it and I thank him / her. 100% my own decision to sell.

I’m still of the opinion there’s news to come that will push it down.

Hope nobody lost out on my advice about them just viewed it as a risky hold for anyone already in the money.

greenfield21

I'm slighty still green here after q1,there is a lot of red in my pf but still up due to % invested in each. last few weeks I've started moving to higher risk which should hopefully make shares worth while again.

garrettod

greenfield21 wrote: »

....I've started moving to higher risk which should hopefully make shares worth while again.

Congrats on keeping an overall green for Q1.

What do you mean by moving into higher risk, if you don't mind me asking ?

... there's an argument for moving from growth to value shares, depending on where you see us in the current economic cycle.

littlevillage

For anybody chasing yield. Check out Mondi paper & packaging. It seems to trade at a discount to Smurfit etc. and has recently announced a 'special' €1 dividend along with the 42.9c regular dividend ....shares go ex dividend on 3rd May.

Seems a no brainer as the Shares are trading at about €21 in Frankfurt or (£18 on LSE) and are at a Monthly low. So about a 7% dividend (total) at the moment... prepare for a bit of volatility coming upto 3rd May.... but as long as the SP doesn't fall another 10%, you'll be quids in.

Wombatman

Fair play to anyone with a Q1 profit. Please post more picks.