Are there too many weather warnings?

MJohnston

greenpilot wrote: »

Jesus. Are things so bad in this country that, if anything outside the "norm" occurs in the weather arena, we need to be cuddled, cradled, schooled and spoken to as if all common sense has disappeared from our greater population.

Back in 1982, we had a disastrous time but we just got on with it. Listening to the radio on various stations it was hilarious listening to the likes of Connor Faulkner and folks like him explaining to folks what not to do in bad weather. It was like listening to a 3rd class road safety lesson by the local garda.

What happened to folks common sense. This rubbish of "Elderly afraid to leave their houses". Eh What? The reason we didn't leave our houses was because idiots we aint.

Now, Regarding this total red warning, for us In the West, (Mayo and Roscommon), it was completely farcical. Not a flake on the roads, bone dry, no wind, yet every school, Bank, PO, supermarket and chemist closed.

I hear people complaining about a Nanny state, well, I think little heed will be paid to overexaggerated warnings going forward. If people do not have the common sense, life experience, or wherewithal to keep safe in bad weather situations, well It's their problem. Off you go, But do not treat the rest of us like fupping eejits!

In case anyone was in any doubt, the above is not the way a country should be run in the 21st century.

Charles Babbage

laugh wrote: »

What counties would you have specifically left out?

Gremlin wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack, specifically said on RTE news that the red alert for Donegal was initiated because of the temperatures and the wind chill.

Are those temperatures really all that unusual in Donegal?

And I'll repeat this is without considering already accumulated lying snow.

So if there are showers and it snows 2cm each day for 5 days then it is a red warning on day 5? In this context, roads should be cleared each day.

greenpilot

MJohnston wrote: »

In case anyone was in any doubt, the above is not the way a country should be run in the 21st century.

No. Of course not.

MJohnston

greenpilot wrote: »

No. Of course not.

Apologies, I misread your post as complaining that the warnings were nanny state stuff, in reality you were saying the opposite. But yeah, the 1982 era of no warnings, no government leadership on preparations, etc. deserves to be left in the past.

We can debate about the necessity for the warning levels to become more granular or impact based, but I don't think there's any arguing that they've been very useful from a perspective of preparation and emergency response.

OldRio

greenpilot wrote: »

Jesus. Are things so bad in this country that, if anything outside the "norm" occurs in the weather arena, we need to be cuddled, cradled, schooled and spoken to as if all common sense has disappeared from our greater population.

Back in 1982, we had a disastrous time but we just got on with it. Listening to the radio on various stations it was hilarious listening to the likes of Connor Faulkner and folks like him explaining to folks what not to do in bad weather. It was like listening to a 3rd class road safety lesson by the local garda.

What happened to folks common sense. This rubbish of "Elderly afraid to leave their houses". Eh What? The reason we didn't leave our houses was because idiots we aint.

Now, Regarding this total red warning, for us In the West, (Mayo and Roscommon), it was completely farcical. Not a flake on the roads, bone dry, no wind, yet every school, Bank, PO, supermarket and chemist closed.

I hear people complaining about a Nanny state, well, I think little heed will be paid to overexaggerated warnings going forward. If people do not have the common sense, life experience, or wherewithal to keep safe in bad weather situations, well It's their problem. Off you go, But do not treat the rest of us like fupping eejits!

Not a flake? No wind? Bone dry?
Nah

greenpilot

MJohnston wrote: »

In case anyone was in any doubt, the above is not the way a country should be run in the 21st century.

MJohnston wrote: »

Apologies, I misread your post as complaining that the warnings were nanny state stuff, in reality you were saying the opposite. But yeah, the 1982 era of no warnings, no government leadership on preparations, etc. deserves to be left in the past.

We can debate about the necessity for the warning levels to become more granular or impact based, but I don't think there's any arguing that they've been very useful from a perspective of preparation and emergency response.

I agree, but there is a massive Agri-Business operation who had to close their doors for a day impacting on thousands of farmers and a milk operation effecting overseas trade. All for a laughable warning which did not apply to most of our region.

GreeBo

greenpilot wrote: »

All for a laughable warning which did not apply to most of our region.

It turns out that it didnt apply...if it did apply and there was no warning then lives could have been put at risk.


The downside of a warning are far less than the downsides of no warning in the event of either being proved incorrect after the fact

They reallly cant win with some people.

MJohnston

Yes, hindsight is 20-20. Forecasters are not psychic, so we can only judge the weather warnings by the modelled potential at the time of warning, not the eventual outcome. So many people do not understand this, and I don't know why.

GreeBo

MJohnston wrote: »

Yes, hindsight is 20-20. Forecasters are not psychic, so we can only judge the weather warnings by the modelled potential at the time of warning, not the eventual outcome. So many people do not understand this, and I don't know why.

They think its the Weather News and not the Weather Forecast.

nacho libre

GreeBo wrote: »

It turns out that it didnt apply...if it did apply and there was no warning then lives could have been put at risk.


The downside of a warning are far less than the downsides of no warning in the event of either being proved incorrect after the fact

They reallly cant win with some people.

9 people are dead in England, despite all the warnings. What would have hapened here had there been no warnings? We saw the same nonsense with Ophelia.
As you say you can't win with some people.

piuswal

leahyl wrote: »

I’m not being a troll but at the moment where I am anyway does not warrant a red alert...sigh. We didn’t get any major snow at all yesterday or during the night, even paschal sheehy was trying to make it sound worse than it is on the radio just now lol. It seems mainly the east coast got the bulk. I thought this was going to be epic. Oh well :-( Now I’m reading reports of rain, Aaaargh!

I’m afraid you are displaying lack of knowledge of weather forecasting and its challenges with your comments.

Let us step back from Cork or Dublin City Centre or where ever you are in Munster and Leinster and think your ok, to the source of this weather.

Have a look at Europe, Google Maps or whatever and see Europe, from the top of Norway to Northern Italy and from Moscow to Galway.

Since Met Eireann issued a Weather Advisory last week regarding the current weather what we are getting now, it has travelled, roughly, across the area mentioned, c 4 million sq km or so.

On its way it has encountered a range of modifying factors.

Cities adding varying amounts of heat, mountains and valleys changing the wind flow, the influences of different vegetation, frozen water and open seas to list some.

It crosses into Britain, dumps a lot of snow there and then moves across the Irish Sea picking up energy again and finally impacts on Ireland.

Now add in the vertical extent, for simplicity let us say 10 km. We are now talking about a volume of 40 million cubic km.

During the week or so that it has taken to get here, that volume has had to be repeatedly measured and analysed and millions upon millions of mathematical calculations run, with the slightest error in the initial measurements being magnified over and over again, to arrive at values for the conditions over the island of Ireland, c 80,000 sq Km, which is just 2% of the area it has travelled over.

Then you have Storm EMMA coming up from Biscay, not counted in the area calculations done above and bringing an entirely different regime of weather to mix with the very cold easterly.

Let us be generous and say DCC is 2 by 2 km, 4 sq km. That is .005 % of the island, which in turn is 2% of the area over which the weather has travelled and been modified.

Now, you want Met Eireann to differentiate Cork or Dublin City Centre or where ever your small patch is, from its surrounds!

Really!

firemansam4

I think something needs to be changed with the warning system. A nationwide red warning did not seem warrented to me.
There should have been an orange warning in some counties where schools ect could make there own judgement calls on weather to shut or not.
Here in Donegal anywhere south of letterkenny did not get hardly anything and most forecasts and models predicted that.
Now if things did change for the worse then there would have always been the option to upgrade to red. Like other posters mentined NI did not have as severe alerts and they were forecast to get it worse in quite a few models.

Graham

GreeBo wrote: »

They think its the Weather News and not the Weather Forecast.

That's pretty much it in a nutshell.

Plenty of posts from yesterday to confirm the theory too.

There's a fairly good reason the segment at the end of the news is the weather forecast and not the weather timetable.

Agent_47

nacho libre wrote: »

9 people are dead in England, despite all the warnings. What would have hapened here had there been no warnings? We saw the same nonsense with Ophelia.
As you say you can't win with some people.

I think they got the warnings spot on, it is difficult to make a call and even more difficult to stand over it.

When I think back to shambles of the response to the Christmas flooding of 2015 (take a bow Joan Burton - literally:)) and the coordinated responses to Hurricane Ophelia and to this weeks snow storms there is no comparison and it is about time we got something right.

I think as you point out that lives were saved as a result.

CelticRambler

facehugger99 wrote: »

65 million people and a few dozen got stuck?

Big deal - they didn't shut the Country down and fair dues to them. Kept the public transport running, kept the schools open.

We could take a leaf from their book and show a bit more backbone rather than the overbearing nannying from our Government.

A few dozen? Over a thousand vehicles on one road alone in Wiltshire; people stranded on trains overnight; definitely plenty of schools and universities shut ....

Are you sure you're not looking at last week's news?

Christy42

firemansam4 wrote: »

I think something needs to be changed with the warning system. A nationwide red warning did not seem warrented to me.
There should have been an orange warning in some counties where schools ect could make there own judgement calls on weather to shut or not.
Here in Donegal anywhere south of letterkenny did not get hardly anything and most forecasts and models predicted that.
Now if things did change for the worse then there would have always been the option to upgrade to red. Like other posters mentined NI did not have as severe alerts and they were forecast to get it worse in quite a few models.

An Orange warning is not a you may get very serious weather. Warnings are given out based on the severity of the weather event. Not the probability of it occurring. To begin with people have a tendancy to be really bad with probability.

You tell people there is a 30% chance of a severe snowstorm I guarantee people will complain they were not properly warned if they have to trek home or their kids get stuck in a school.

Finally people are seriously, seriously over hyping the damage caused by an red alert that ended up not being needed in parts. Some even seem to be embarrassed by the response and praising the UK. I don't know about others but if I was a foreign observer and I saw area with red warning sees no snow and 1000 cars stuck on motorway I know which country I would judge a lot more.

Radharc na Sleibhte

I think they need maybe a 4th warning and tighten up the parameters. Amber say, and really save red for absolute definitive extreme danger direct risk to your life weather, such as what happened in Kildare and Offaly and in the worst affected areas for Ophelia.

I also think we need a government directive on what business and schools and shops and banks etc MUST do on any given particular warning.

Our local primary school ended up taking three days off now (inc Ophelia) for absolutely nothing. Now I know the finer points of a weather forecast is almost a guessing game at times and I’m not looking for a weather report for each community, if that were even possible, but I know in these three days the local principal felt there was no need in our area to close the school and he was proved right. The red warning criteria never materialised here for either event now.

I’m not sure what the solution is, as people say, “oh just because you weren’t affected doesn’t mean we weren’t”. But the fact is we weren’t affected, and let’s be realistic, did the models ever warrant a red warning in the north west, yet schools were closed, I would have had to close my business (only they were days closed anyway!), shops and local business pulled down their shutters. Elderly people were scared stiff.

I know, I know it could have swung either way if the god of winded farted in a particular direction, but it hasn’t, twice now. What will happen the third time now? Some hard man will say, ah don’t mind that warning, remember the last two times and out he will venture.

GreeBo

Radharc na Sleibhte wrote: »

I think they need maybe a 4th warning and tighten up the parameters. Amber say, and really save red for absolute definitive extreme danger direct risk to your life weather, such as what happened in Kildare and Offaly and in the worst affected areas for Ophelia.

I also think we need a government directive on what business and schools and shops and banks etc MUST do on any given particular warning.

Our local primary school ended up taking three days off now (inc Ophelia) for absolutely nothing. Now I know the finer points of a weather forecast is almost a guessing game at times and I’m not looking for a weather report for each community, if that were even possible, but I know in these three days the local principal felt there was no need in our area to close the school and he was proved right. The red warning criteria never materialised here for either event now.

I’m not sure what the solution is, as people say, “oh just because you weren’t affected doesn’t mean we weren’t”. But the fact is we weren’t affected, and let’s be realistic, did the models ever warrant a red warning in the north west, yet schools were closed, I would have had to close my business (only they were days closed anyway!), shops and local business pulled down their shutters. Elderly people were scared stiff.

I know, I know it could have swung either way if the god of winded farted in a particular direction, but it hasn’t, twice now. What will happen the third time now? Some hard man will say, ah don’t mind that warning, remember the last two times and out he will venture.

The take the decision to close in advance so that people can plan.
no good closing it at the last minute when people havent made other arrangements.


I'm happy for old people to be scared stiff in the safety of their warm houses with plenty of supplies. Id certainly take that over them not being scared and getting caught out in whats outside my window right now.

People who ignore warnings and have something bad happen frankly deserve it.

CelticRambler

D'you know there's some fierce isolationism being shown on this thread, it's almost like being at a Brexiteers convention! :pac:

All this business of holding "other countries" up as great examples of how they cope with snow - well, keep wearing the rose-tinted glasses. Anyone heard of the French Alps? If you haven't, its somewhere that gets its fair share of snow every year, currently killiing about 5-10 people every weekend with avalanches. :rolleyes: Well guess what, two nights ago, the local motorways in that area totally shut down ... due to snow. Oh, and a little bit further to the west, the city of Montpellier came to a complete stop for 24 hours - everything: schools, public transport, community services, etc, etc. Because of snow (or, to be more precise, the battle between Emma and the Beast :cool:).

Switzerland - great country, knows how to cope with snow. Yeah. Geneva airport has been shut today. Due to snow. And the only serious snow-emergency I've suffered on my European travels was in ... Switzerland. Road impassable due to snow on an incline. In Germany, I've seen hundreds of cars in bits after colliding with the central barrier, or each other, or the ditch, because of snow. My most traumatic scene (ever) was driving around the wreckage of three or four families that were obviously heading somewhere for Christmas and the snow-covered motorway was littered with brightly wrapped presents that had exploded out of their smashed up cars.

SkyNews had some feckineejit on this morning complaining about being stuck on that road in Wiltshire for six hours, and how he'd lived in Canada and other places and they can all cope and it was crazy that the council hadn't sent a snow plough out. Right. So you decided to go for a drive at 2 in the morning, all alone, in the face of plenty of weather warnings, and now you're expecting someone to come and rescue you? Did it ever occur to you that the snow-ploughs can't do a damn thing if eejits like you are blocking the road because you've forgotten that you're not in Canada or the Ukraine? :mad:

All these examples of other countries "just getting on with it" are nonsensical. What happens in reality? They don't get on with anything, they shut down. The snowploughs wait till the blizzard passes, then they go out and clear a limited number of routes. :eek:

Not enough gritting, say some. Grit helps with ice; it's of absolutely no use whatsoever in snow. For that you need studded tyres or snow chain/socks, and in most parts of snowy Euorpe, you'll see a sign that says: "snow tyres obligatory from [15th October]", or maybe even: "do not pass this point without snow chains", but most often, a simple: "road closed" and that's it. Local and national radio broadcast messages with 6, 12 or 18 hours notice to say that all schools in designated areas will be closed and some/all public transport will be suspended. :cool:

It's the same with the weather warnings. We were under an Orange warning for one day during the week, but the south of France was Red. While that might sound like the kind of sensible solution that the people down some boreen in the Dingle Penisula want, to emphasise their independence from snowflakey jackeens up in Dublin, remember that that part of France is 600km away from where I live. As I said above, I'm no fan of the nanny state, but when you have people who do communte from Limerick or Galway or Sligo to Dublin, there's little point in fine tuning the colour of the warning to the nearest parish. :rolleyes:

And besides, with a population that can't seem to survive a walk to the shops without plugging their ears with a playlist and checking their phone every twenty paces, these kinds of warnings are probably the only way of getting through to the majority of people.

That doesn't excuse so-called news channels re-using two-day old video footage for their "latest report" though! :rolleyes:

bfa1509

Mikewalsh wrote: »

I saw another warning today for rain and wind no less

Shouldn't met eireann hold off on the warnings for the more extreme events

This thread is extremely reckless to assume there are too many weather warnings and it is putting peoples lives in danger! I urge everyone to not listen to this mad man and to stay inside at all times, lock the doors, close the curtains and pay close attention to all RTE updates. RTE are urging people to tune in to their live coverage to ensure your survival, especially the frequent breaks to commercials, which are necessary to remind people of the deals they can avail of on Saturday when the shops reopen as the businesses need to make up for the loss in profit caused by the mandatory optional closure for the last 2 days.

Radharc na Sleibhte

GreeBo wrote: »

The take the decision to close in advance so that people can plan.
no good closing it at the last minute when people havent made other arrangements.


I'm happy for old people to be scared stiff in the safety of their warm houses with plenty of supplies. Id certainly take that over them not being scared and getting caught out in whats outside my window right now.

People who ignore warnings and have something bad happen frankly deserve it.

You’re not from round these ere parts I take it. We have plenty of them!

But seriously, that’s my point. What’s outside YOUR window. In other words, your red warning was obviously warranted. Closing down our town, surrounding villages and all that hullabaloo that came with it wasn’t, or anything close to it.

I know they have to give advance notice, but I can only speak for my town and our experiences. Obviously yours and other people where they get the forecast spot on are going to be grateful for the advance warnings.

HONKEY TONK

I know.... Lets go swimming

https://independent.bbvms.com/view/embed/2911425.html

MJohnston

Radharc na Sleibhte wrote: »

You’re not from round these ere parts I take it. We have plenty of them!

But seriously, that’s my point. What’s outside YOUR window. In other words, your red warning was obviously warranted. Closing down our town, surrounding villages and all that hullabaloo that came with it wasn’t, or anything close to it.

So you want the weather warnings to have a town-level specificity?

Radharc na Sleibhte

MJohnston wrote: »

So you want the weather warnings to have a town-level specificity?

Yes, by community and postcode too.

GreeBo

Radharc na Sleibhte wrote: »

You’re not from round these ere parts I take it. We have plenty of them!

But seriously, that’s my point. What’s outside YOUR window. In other words, your red warning was obviously warranted. Closing down our town, surrounding villages and all that hullabaloo that came with it wasn’t, or anything close to it.

I know they have to give advance notice, but I can only speak for my town and our experiences. Obviously yours and other people where they get the forecast spot on are going to be grateful for the advance warnings.

You have plenty of what?

You still seem to think that a warning WAS only warranted IF the bad weather came. Thats not what a warning is.

Radharc na Sleibhte

GreeBo wrote: »

You have plenty of what?

You still seem to think that a warning WAS only warranted IF the bad weather came. Thats not what a warning is.

Gobshytes that would pay no heed to warnings.

What do you mean? Obviously a warning has to be definitively warranted, surely! What’s the point otherwise!

If they keep issuing these warnings that don’t materialise in to anything close to what they say (as is the case for at least a 100 mile diameter here again) then people will soon pay absolutely no heed to them. That’s the whole subject of this thread.

MJohnston

Radharc na Sleibhte wrote: »

Yes, by community and postcode too.

I think that's likely to be far too expensive for ME to ever be able to do, and the forecasts are not even vaguely close to being capable of that kind of precision.

Radharc na Sleibhte

MJohnston wrote: »

I think that's likely to be far too expensive for ME to ever be able to do, and the forecasts are not even vaguely close to being capable of that kind of precision.

I was being sarcastic!!! Sorry!

GreeBo

Radharc na Sleibhte wrote: »

Gobshytes that would pay no heed to warnings.

What do you mean? Obviously a warning has to be definitively warranted, surely! What’s the point otherwise!

If they keep issuing these warnings that don’t materialise in to anything close to what they say (as is the case for at least a 100 mile diameter here again) then people will soon pay absolutely no heed to them. That’s the whole subject of this thread.

A few gob****es are not a good reason to stop giving weather warnings.


How can you possibly give any weather warning if thats your criteria?
Sure then you could only give them retrospectively!?


People who ignore warnings are gob****es, in your own words...who cares what they do?

Radharc na Sleibhte

Think we can all agree a red warning was most definitively warranted and came to pass in Kildare anyway.......

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/969585469464989696