Are there too many weather warnings?

Mikewalsh

I saw another warning today for rain and wind no less

Shouldn't met eireann hold off on the warnings for the more extreme events

Odelay

Mikewalsh wrote: »

I saw another warning today for rain and wind no less

Shouldn't met eireann hold off on the warnings for the more extreme events

Tis only an orange warning, meaning to be aware. Some changes in plans might be needed that's all. It's not a batten down the hatches job.
Have a read of the instructions/guidelines.

ninebeanrows

There are thresholds for the warnings. If a weather variable is expected to exceed these thresholds a warning should be issued.

That is the current basis for warnings. You can debate about the levels set but the reasons warnings are issued is currently just based on this. In the future there will more of an impact based thinking - but that is a few years down the line.

Cee-Jay-Cee

I don’t really mind the warnings however naming the storms is utter nonsense. Previously only major storms/hurricanes got names, now anything more than a strong breeze has a name giving the perception of something much worse. We’ve had stronger ‘storms’ years ago which were just run of the mill winter storms and which people generally didn’t know about till they hit and were largely ignored.

sword1

Yes

fraxinus1

I agree, far to many warnings nowadays. Folk are becoming immune to them. It seems now that Nat spell of normal heavy rainfall triggers warnings and then the media gets hold of it and before you know it sensational headlines are screaming about killer floods and winds.

Odelay

fraxinus1 wrote: »

I agree, far to many warnings nowadays. Folk are becoming immune to them. It seems now that Nat spell of normal heavy rainfall triggers warnings and then the media gets hold of it and before you know it sensational headlines are screaming about killer floods and winds.

But that's the media trying to sell headlines, it's not up to Met to control them. Met can only supply the information, maybe it's time to consider your news source?

PukkaStukka

At the recent Met Eireann symposium on future weather, Gerry Murphy gave an excellent talk on "Impact based forecasting" which included a detailed and well explained outline of the logic behind weather warnings. These include the aforementioned thresholds, but thresholds are tuned to locations and weather types rather than "one size fits all" thresholds applied nationally. An example was given where a given volume of rainfall may merit a yellow rainfall warning in a sparsely populated mountainous region, yet that same rainfall in a more populated area already prone to flooding would likely warrant a more elevated warning.

I know that each of the speakers that day had their talks streamed live and perhaps these are available elsewhere for viewing or download. If so, Gerrys talk is well worth taking in. The slides Gerry used in his talk are available here

http://www.met.ie/UserMediaUpl/file/12_Future_Weather_Future_Chalenges_Gerry_Murphy.pdf

To directly answer the OP's question after hearing it from the experts about how such warnings are determined, in my mind the issuing of such warnings would be both merited and appropriate.

piuswal

Mikewalsh wrote: »

I saw another warning today for rain and wind no less

Shouldn't met eireann hold off on the warnings for the more extreme events

=======================================
Met Éireann Weather Warning System Explained
The issue of Weather Warnings is perhaps the most important function of any National Meteorological Service and lies at the heart of the suite of Public Weather Services provided to citizens by Met Éireann. The core rationale for issuing Weather Warnings is to protect the lives and livelihoods of all of the nation’s citizens, and to mitigate damage to property and disturbance to economic activity at times of severe weather.

The philosophy underlying the issuance of Weather Warnings by National Meteorological Services has developed considerably over the past few decades. Internationally, much research has been carried out on the effects of extreme weather, and this has led to an increased focus on the “Impacts” of extreme weather rather on the statistical meteorological rarity of the extremities themselves. Thus the timing and location of the occurrence of extreme weather can significantly affect the impact which extreme weather may have on society, or on the economy.

Another international development of significance is the maturing of the MeteoAlarm system, (see www.meteoalarm.eu) which implies greater co-ordination of warnings across Europe and the coherence of warnings across national boundaries. This has led to the adoption of a common European framework and terminology for the presentation of Weather Warnings, and the alignment of national Weather Warnings Systems with the international MeteoAlarm framework where this is possible.

Nationally, the development of the Major Emergency Management framework and the designation of Local Authorities, the HSE and An Garda Siochána as the “Principal Response Agencies” (PRAs) with respect to emergency situations (of which a significant percentage will be the result of severe weather) has brought structure and formality to the allocation of responsibility for Emergency Response.

In response to these developments, the Weather Warnings system provided by Met Éireann has been updated and aligned fully with European best practice and with MeteoAlarm.

How are the Weather Warnings categorised?
Weather Warnings are presented in three categories:

STATUS YELLOW - Weather Alert - Be Aware

The concept behind YELLOW level weather alerts is to notify those who are at risk because of their location and/or activity, and to allow them to take preventative action. It is implicit that YELLOW level weather alerts are for weather conditions that do not pose an immediate threat to the general population, but only to those exposed to risk by nature of their location and/or activity.

STATUS ORANGE - Weather Warning - Be Prepared

This category of ORANGE level weather warnings is for weather conditions which have the capacity to impact significantly on people in the affected areas. The issue of an Orange level weather warning implies that all recipients in the affected areas should prepare themselves in an appropriate way for the anticipated conditions.

STATUS RED - Severe Weather Warning - Take Action

The issue of RED level severe weather warnings should be a comparatively rare event and implies that recipients take action to protect themselves and/or their properties; this could be by moving their families out of the danger zone temporarily; by staying indoors; or by other specific actions aimed at mitigating the effects of the weather conditions.
What weather conditions are warned for?
Hazards deriving from the following weather-related types are covered by Met Éireann’s weather warnings system:

Wind
Rain
Snow
Low Temperatures
Fog
High Temperatures
Thunderstorms
Coastal Wind Warnings
The system also covers warnings for the following weather-related phenomena (which will all be classified as YELLOW level - Weather Alerts only)

Potato Blight (May to September only)
UV / Sunburn (May to September only)
Pollen Levels (May to July only)
When will Weather Alerts/Warnings be issued?
Weather Alerts and Warnings will be issued whenever weather conditions meeting the detailed thresholds defined below are anticipated within a 48-hr period. There will be judgement required on the part of the forecaster who must weigh up the possible severity of the weather conditions and the likelihood of their occurrence. However on some occasions (weekends, holiday periods) it may be necessary to issue Weather Warnings beyond this 48-hr horizon, if sufficient certainty derives from examination of the weather charts. Normally, however, a Weather Advisory (see below) will be used to flag severe weather beyond 48hrs and Advisories will normally anticipate only “Orange” or “Red” criteria weather hazards.

Given that the thrust of the Weather Warnings service is on potential “Impacts” of weather rather than on the numerical values attained by the weather elements themselves, it may on occasion be appropriate to issue warnings at a level higher than that strictly justified by the anticipated weather elements. An example would be when heavy rain was expected which might not quite meet the “Orange Warning” criteria but which might give rise to significant flooding because of already saturated ground, or because of a combination of rain, wind and tide in a coastal location.

Weather Advisories
Weather Advisories may be issued to provide early information on potential hazardous weather beyond the 48hr horizon. They may also be employed when a sum of weather elements acting together create a significant hazard, e.g. winds which may not be up to warnings strength but which, when combined with high tides and significant swell, generate a risk of flooding. Another possible use would be to advise of wind speed and direction on occasions of Volcanic Ash contamination. They might also be used to advise of expected significant medium-term accumulations of rain during a very unsettled period when soils are known to be saturated. The issue of Weather Warnings and Weather Advisories is at all times down to the judgement of the Met Éireann forecasters.

Weather Warning Criteria
The criteria for the different warnings levels (Yellow, Orange, Red) and the different weather elements (Rain, Wind etc) are laid out in the tables below.

Categories of Severe Weather encompassed by the National Weather Warnings System, together with the associated criteria:



Weather Element Criteria for Red - Severe Weather Warnings

1. Wind Mean Speeds in excess of 80 km/h
Gusts Speeds in excess of 130 km/h
2. Rain 70mm or greater in 24 hrs
50mm or greater in 12 hrs
40mm or greater in 6 hrs
3. Snow/Ice Significant falls of snow likely to cause accumulations of 8 cm or greater below 250 m AMSL. Slippery paths and roads due to accumulation of ice on untreated surfaces; situation likely to worsen.
4. Low Temperatures Minima of minus 10C or lower expected. Maxima of minus 2C or lower expected.
5. Fog No Criterion – not displayed.
6. High Temperature As Orange criterion, but persisting for two or more consecutive nights.
7. Thunderstorms No Criterion – not displayed.
8. Coastal Wind Warnings Violent Storm Force 11 or greater. (Mean Speeds)



Weather Element Criteria for Orange – Weather Warnings

1. Wind Mean Speeds between 65 and 80 km/h
Gusts between 110 and 130 km/h
2. Rain 50mm – 70mm in 24 hrs
40mm – 50mm in 12 hrs
30mm – 40mm in 6 hrs
3. Snow/Ice Significant falls of snow likely to cause accumulations of 3 cm or greater below 250m AMSL. Slippery paths and roads due to accumulation of ice on untreated surfaces; situation stable.
4. Low Temperatures Minima of minus 5C to minus 9C expected. Maxima of 0C or minus 1C expected.
5. Fog Dense fog likely to cause a widespread and significant driving hazard on national primary routes.
6. High Temperature Maxima in excess of 30C or minima in excess of 20C expected in a 24hr period
7. Thunderstorms Widespread thundery activity over an area of several counties.
8. Coastal Wind Warnings Storm Force 10. (Mean Speeds)


Weather Element Criteria for Yellow – Weather Alerts

1. Wind Mean Speeds between 50 and 65 km/h
Gusts between 90 and 110 km/h
2. Rain 30mm – 50mm in 24 hrs
25mm – 40mm in 12 hrs
20mm – 30mm in 6 hrs
3. Snow/Ice Scattered snow showers giving accumulations of less than 3 cm below 250m AMSL. Slippery paths and roads due to accumulation of ice on untreated surfaces; situation improving.
4. Low Temperatures Minima of minus 3C or minus 4C expected. Maxima of plus 1C or plus 2C expected.
5. Fog No Criterion.
6. High Temperature Maxima in excess of 27C expected
7. Thunderstorms No Criterion.
8. Coastal Wind Warnings Gale Force 8 or Strong Gale Force 9. (Mean Speeds)


Weather Element Criteria for Green (i.e. no significant hazardous weather)

1. Wind Gusts less than 80 km/h
2. Rain Less than 30mm in 24 hrs
Less than 25mm in 12 hrs
Less than 20mm in 6 hrs
3. Snow/Ice No snow, or some snow showers possible, mainly above 250m altitude.
4. Low Temperature Minima higher than minus 3C and maxima higher than plus 2C.
5. Fog None
6. Thunderstorms None
7. High Temperature Maxima less than 27C
8. Coastal Wind Warnings Winds less than Gale Force.

piuswal

Mikewalsh wrote: »

I saw another warning today for rain and wind no less

Shouldn't met eireann hold off on the warnings for the more extreme events

see

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/

also

piuswal

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

I don’t really mind the warnings however naming the storms is utter nonsense. Previously only major storms/hurricanes got names, now anything more than a strong breeze has a name giving the perception of something much worse. We’ve had stronger ‘storms’ years ago which were just run of the mill winter storms and which people generally didn’t know about till they hit and were largely ignored.

=========================================
see conditions/requirements for naming storms


read;

http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=446

lalababa

Met. Eirinn were lax with warnings until Feb. 2014 storm which took them by surprise. They got a bit of stick for it. Then they went a bit overboard. The fishermen and farmers around the coast wouldn't spit on a met e forcast on the TV. They use the sea forecast and the new generation use the net. such as magic seaweed. Nothing against them they do a v. good job really.

PukkaStukka

Mikewalsh wrote: »

I saw another warning today for rain and wind no less

Shouldn't met eireann hold off on the warnings for the more extreme events

Following on from the tragic events in Louisburg Mayo over Christmas, Gardai are investigating whether the weather was a factor in it. The wind and rain warning the OP mentions covered this particular region...

siochain

Constant warnings will lead to cry wolf situations

PukkaStukka

siochain wrote: »

Constant warnings will lead to cry wolf situations

The warnings are driven by what the weather is doing, not the whim of the forecaster issuing them.

As I alluded to in my previous post, there were comments made about issuing the yellow weather warning over Christmas yet now we find that same weather may have had a part to play in road tragedy.

Dakota Dan

How did we manage years ago without all these silly warnings?

CJhaughey

Dakota Dan wrote: »

How did we manage years ago without all these silly warnings?

We lived in ignorance.

GhostyMcGhost

Odelay wrote: »

But that's the media trying to sell headlines, it's not up to Met to control them. Met can only supply the information, maybe it's time to consider your news source?

Exactly. Where’s this ‘weather bomb’ the daily star were so fond of scaremongering?

Dakota Dan

CJhaughey wrote: »

We lived in ignorance.

How do you figure that out? If anything it's the other way round.

Dakota Dan

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

Exactly. Where’s this ‘weather bomb’ the daily star were so fond of scaremongering?

They are forecasting the beast from the east every year but it never works out for them.

Odelay

Dakota Dan wrote: »

They are forecasting the beast from the east every year but it never works out for them.

That's the papers lad, don't believe everything you read in the paper.

Odelay

Dakota Dan wrote: »

How did we manage years ago without all these silly warnings?

I didn't realise they were forcing you to pay attention to them???

Dakota Dan

Odelay wrote: »

That's the papers lad, don't believe everything you read in the paper.

Tell me something I don't know lad.

Dakota Dan

Odelay wrote: »

I didn't realise they were forcing you to pay attention to them???

No. I just shout LA LA LA as the announce it :rolleyes: Have you some problem?

Wesser

2 dead in mayo. Car swept away by fast moving stream. Maybe weather warning was not not so silly now.

Dakota Dan

Wesser wrote: »

2 dead in mayo. Car swept away by fast moving stream. Maybe weather warning was not not so silly now.

So how did the car end up in the stream? The weather warning isn't much good to them now.

Just saw that they were attempting to cross a swollen river.

ongarboy

Dakota Dan wrote: »

So how did the car end up in the stream? The weather warning isn't much good to them now.

Just saw that they were attempting to cross a swollen river.

Apparently the stream was normally passable. If they heeded the heavy rain warning, they may have realised such a route would've been inadvisable.

People also felt the nationwide red warning for Ophelia was OTT yet 3 lives were still lost by falling trees despite an unprecedented awareness by the public and pretty much 90% of the population staying at home. I wouldn't have been surprised if we had double digit fatalities that day if everyone had gone about their normal business outdoors that day. The appropriate warning worked even if most of us felt it wasn't "that bad" of a storm.

The media sensationalizing of warnings is definitely overkill but not the met office issuing of them.

piuswal

ongarboy wrote: »

Apparently the stream was normally passable. If they heeded the heavy rain warning, they may have realised such a route would've been inadvisable.

People also felt the nationwide red warning for Ophelia was OTT yet 3 lives were still lost by falling trees despite an unprecedented awareness by the public and pretty much 90% of the population staying at home. I wouldn't have been surprised if we had double digit fatalities that day if everyone had gone about their normal business outdoors that day. The appropriate warning worked even if most of us felt it wasn't "that bad" of a storm.

The media sensationalizing of warnings is definitely overkill but not the met office issuing of them.

"met office" is usually taken to refer to the British Met Office.

Here in Ireland the reference is usually "Met service" or "Met Eireann"

PukkaStukka

^^^
:rolleyes:

redsteveireland

"Is there..." No.
"Are there..." maybe, but met eireann have somewhat of a civic duty to protect the public from possible danger.

NIMAN

Agree, think they are crying Wolf too often regarding these warnings.

But the snowflakes need protecting, don't they?

Odelay

NIMAN wrote: »

Agree, think they are crying Wolf too often regarding these warnings.

But the snowflakes need protecting, don't they?

Can you give me a couple of examples of warnings met eireann got wrong?

Gaoth Laidir

I think issuing a "warning" for cm of snow is laughable (not the fault of Met Éireann but the fact that cm causes such panic in this country). I think there should be something like an "advisory" rather than a warning.

Speak Now

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think issuing a "warning" for cm of snow is laughable (not the fault of Met Éireann but the fact that cm causes such panic in this country). I think there should be something like an "advisory" rather than a warning.

I would see the yellow warnings as just that. Media loves an oul warning though. Often you'd head on the radio that met Eireann has issued a rainfall warning for 12 counties or so. No mention of colour or counties!

NIMAN

Odelay wrote: »

Can you give me a couple of examples of warnings met eireann got wrong?

How do you measure right or wrong?

They have issued a yellow warning for snow and ice for tonight for example. So what? In my opinion, unless it's very deep and it means we can't move around the roads, then we don't need a warning. We had snow before and no warnings.

How will tonight's warning be judged a s a success for you?

Roger_007

WEATHER WARNING......issued by Met Eireann, (colour optional).

"Weather will be unusually normal for the next couple of days. There may be some frost and a millimetre or two of snow, (especially on high ground).There may also be some rain and wind.
At this stage we expect the weather may become EXTREMELY normal later in the week. People are strongly advised to take the necessary precautions.

Donegal Storm

NIMAN wrote: »

How do you measure right or wrong?

They have issued a yellow warning for snow and ice for tonight for example. So what? In my opinion, unless it's very deep and it means we can't move around the roads, then we don't need a warning. We had snow before and no warnings.

How will tonight's warning be judged a s a success for you?

3cm of snow generally means people can't move about away from main routes, it also leads to icy and potentially dangerous conditions. Issuing a warning telling the public to be aware of these conditions is hardly controversial.

Same goes for rainfall that leads to flooding as happened on Christmas Day, telling road users to be aware of potential flooding and standing water is entirely reasonable and responsible

M.T. Cranium

I haven't formed a very solid opinion of which system is better, maybe this one is, but in North America there are no "levels" of weather warnings, you just get a warning followed by the numerical estimates. The criteria for lowest level warnings are about the same. In rare instances you might get a Fujita scale number attached to a tornado warning. Otherwise, if it's to be a 160 km/hr wind gust, then that's the number attached to the warning, no colour code, no levels.

People here also complain that there are too many warnings and that it leads to lowering of expectations before big events. I think the advantage to your system is that somebody has done the estimate for the user as to level of severity. Here, it's more like a scramble to recall what 120 km/hr gusts do to power grids and trees, or if 10 cm of snow will be manageable for the drive to work.

So I think I would vote to retain the levels and the colour codes, and I do think all three are needed, some seem to think maybe level one (yellow) is too tame to bother about, but two things come to mind -- a level one can escalate to a level two so if you raise the bar, that kind of level two will just happen without warning, and also, some users need this information even though for most people impacts may be minor or "nuisance" variety, for example, trucking companies will want to alert their drivers to level one wind gusts if they think they might be crosswinds. Minor snowfalls in lowland areas can translate to actionable problems for those few folk who live higher up.

The worst snow for accidents is light snow, partly because people tend to think they can keep driving at or near posted speed limits, in heavier snow, you can't anyway and if you do lose control you probably won't be going fast enough to do much damage or injure yourself. I find that 2-5 cms is probably the most dangerous snowfall range in actuarial terms, whether it is for you personally depends on where you drive and how experienced you are.

Larbre34

Those that dont suffer any loss or damage will always say they cried wolf. Thankfully a very small percentage of homes, businesses and farms do suffer loss in extreme weather, at any level.

However try telling those living in exposed or precarious locations that the warnings are too liberal, theyd much rather be safe than sorry.

Two fellas died the other night because of swollen river conditions in a location they apparently knew like the back of their hand -yellow warning in place. Three died during Ophelia from exactly the sort of hazards we were told to anticipate - red warning in place. All tragic, all localised, but all borne out by the warnings.

The current system is exactly fit for purpose, if people retain perspective and dont wait around to be victims of some incident just to be proven right.

Oops69

I think the warning system is fine as long as the person knows the difference in grading between yellow , amber and red , unfortunately most of the news headline writers seem to be colour blind and just see ' weather warning ' sans colours .

ZX7R

I think since met eireann joined meteo alarm, they are issuing weather warning to easily especially yellow warnings and adviceary, also social media has a put a lot of pressure on them also. maybe they are right as it is more for foreign travellers,
But I also think they rely on the weather charts too much lacking a bit of local human input, as in they would have more knowledge of how weather plays out in Ireland. For me if you look at the weather charts from yesterday there weather warnings were just issued almost as a carbon copy of them and the warnings changed as often as the charts changed

Liffey4A

I've no issue with the current colour coded warning system BUT recently I overhead a conversation between two elderly gentlemen and one said he wasn't going to some function because he heard there's a weather warning.

The fact that the warning was for the West Coast and he's on the East Coast didn't come into the conversation, he was just worried because he heard of the warning.

Probably not alot you can do with this situation but I do think older people are overly concerned when they hear warnings when a lot of the time they don't understand them.

nacho libre

NIMAN wrote: »

How do you measure right or wrong?

They have issued a yellow warning for snow and ice for tonight for example. So what? In my opinion, unless it's very deep and it means we can't move around the roads, then we don't need a warning. We had snow before and no warnings.

How will tonight's warning be judged a s a success for you?

If we could see the stats for traffic accidents in years gone by where no warning were given in affected areas, i wonder would the amounts be less now. I know of roads around here that are not treated. With no met eireann warning you might have unsuspecting people passing through getting caught out on such roads, particularly if there is swift transition to colder conditions following a rainfall. I know of a guy who lost life near here in such a scenario. So to me these warning are warranted, as they can save lives and help people avoid serious injury.

Gaoth Laidir

There are too many yellow warnings being issued now imo. It's almost a daily occurrence, and for mostly standard winter weather. Today, for example, "Ice-Snow" warning means what exactly? Ice (frost) or snow? I would not be issuing an official warning for frost. Snow, maybe, but even then it would want to be at low levels and not on hills or mountains.

Warnings should be for unusual, hazardous weather, not weather that we expect. Mention hard frost in the forecast alright, but no need for a warning.

Roger_007

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There are too many yellow warnings being issued now imo. It's almost a daily occurrence, and for mostly standard winter weather. Today, for example, "Ice-Snow" warning means what exactly? Ice (frost) or snow? I would not be issuing an official warning for frost. Snow, maybe, but even then it would want to be at low levels and not on hills or mountains.

Warnings should be for unusual, hazardous weather, not weather that we expect. Mention hard frost in the forecast alright, but no need for a warning.

Agreed. There is no need for any colour of warnings for what is normal winter weather.
I think that the Met service should just tell us what weather we can expect for the next couple of days and let us make up our own minds about what that means for us.
Beyond two or three days the forecasts become so inaccurate that they are useless anyway, so I don't know why they even bother forecasting for a week ahead.

Realt Dearg Sec

PukkaStukka wrote: »

a yellow rainfall warning .

I don't know about anyone else, but if there's going to be yellow rainfall I'll always want a warning.

Clonmel1000

It’s not only met eireann that needs to calm down in fairness. The internet in general and I include this forum gets carried away far to easily.

fraxinus1

What a farce these yellow warnings have become. I ignore them now. So do most people. The whole qualification criteria per colour code needs to be reviewed.

I suggest a yellow kicks in if winds are going to be 120kmph to 140kmph. An orange if it’s 140kmph to 160kmph and a red only if gusts are likely to exceed 160kmph. (That would be incredibly rare)

For snowfall, a yellow warning kicks in if falls exceeding 5cm on low ground expected. The orange for 15cm or more and red for 30cm on low ground (not high ground where heavy falls occur most winter and few folk live).

Rainfall; yellow if 50mm to 60mm expected, orange if 60 to 100mm and a red if totals over 100mm are likely.

Low temperature warnings not necessary unless it’s going to hit -10 and high temperature warning only required if it’s going to exceed 30 degrees

The whole thing is losing the run of itself. Like I recently saw low temperature warnings for -4!!

GhostyMcGhost

More today.... it’s cold out, bit windy but hardly unexpected this time of the year

ninebeanrows

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

More today.... it’s cold out, bit windy but hardly unexpected this time of the year

Have ya read when the warning is for???

GhostyMcGhost

Weathercheck wrote: »

Have ya read when the warning is for???

Yup. My county