Are there too many weather warnings?

Graham wrote: »

joe40 wrote: »

That is just silly. I am saying they are subject to the same forecasting regime with the same level of uncertainty. The Eastern part of northern Ireland was badly affected the western part much less so. this was reflected in their response.

I think you're agreeing, they had forecast different weather for different parts of the country.

Much like we did.

Sounds entirely appropriate.

That is exactly my point, "they had forecast different weather for different parts of the country" The forecast I was reading from Met Eireann was totally different for Donegal and the NW in general from other parts so a coutry wide red warning was not needed. I'm not just talking about hindsight, I was literally reading the "forecast" on wed night from met eireann and then seeing a country wide red warning. The two did not tally at all.
I'm no risk taker nor do I subscribe to the notion of nanny state taking over but in this instance I think they were wrong. The the main damage in my opinion is undermining the warning system. Orange warning will be ignored if they're not upgraded. That is not how these things should work

bucketybuck wrote: »

Why do personal anecdotes matter with regards to the question of appropriate weather warnings?

There is lots of snow outside my window and it is still snowing here right now, but so what? Doesn't change the bigger picture of how appropriate warnings were all week and in what areas.

The poster was saying the warnings were appropriate because met was not certain that they were not needed.

weisses wrote: »

The weather in Kerry is not the same as in Wicklow just because we are on the same land mass so should Kerry be subject to the same warnings that are in place in Wicklow ?

Its a warning not a forecast.

If they were dropping an atomic bomb in Roscrea and fallout was expected to blow towards Dublin based on the wind forecast, you wouldnt want a warning for Clare in case the weather changed so?

joe40 wrote: »

That is exactly my point, "they had forecast different weather for different parts of the country" The forecast I was reading from Met Eireann was totally different for Donegal and the NW in general from other parts so a coutry wide red warning was not needed. I'm not just talking about hindsight, I was literally reading the "forecast" on wed night from met eireann and then seeing a country wide red warning. The two did not tally at all.
I'm no risk taker nor do I subscribe to the notion of nanny state taking over but in this instance I think they were wrong. The the main damage in my opinion is undermining the warning system. Orange warning will be ignored if they're not upgraded. That is not how these things should work

Yes. It was forecast that it would jot be too bad. They know these models are not 100% accurate and prepared accordingly. This time they got it right.

A forecast is what we think will happen. A warning is a warning that something may happen. Aka the above scenario should be read as we don't think it will be too bad (the forecast) but we know there is a decent probability of it being bad (the warning).

Christy42 wrote: »

Yes. It was forecast that it would jot be too bad. They know these models are not 100% accurate and prepared accordingly. This time they got it right.

A forecast is what we think will happen. A warning is a warning that something may happen. Aka the above scenario should be read as we don't think it will be too bad (the forecast) but we know there is a decent probability of it being bad (the warning).

That is not a criteria to go red warned country wide

Deleted User wrote: »

No ......it just makes people more and more dependent on Nanny State ,Social Media, Government, Media outlets for how to get up our of bed and live their lives !

Maybe this is the generation that had been created by an over reliance on social media ?? And it’s probably an argument for another day , but if you keep spoon feeding people they will never stand on their own two feet and become independent adults able to think for themselves . I think it’s already too late for many people . (And apologies for going off topic )

Deleted User wrote: »

Well good for you ! I live alone . Many of us have been isolated without anyone for these last few days , no family or friends around at all, nobody will go decide to come over for a few drinks and the craic in this weather ! We don’t all live on streets or in towns .
It’s not an enjoyable experience for many people , it’s totally isolating .

I’m ok cos I am fit and able to walk and get outside .. I did yesterday and I’m heading out again now , but it’s still lonely. And curfews and red alerts that close an entire country down rather than regions only make that harder as everyone operates from place of fear.

Deleted User wrote: »

I’ve very elderly neighbors who were terrified to leave their house and I’ve checked on them every day . Many people do not have a “solution “ and become very isolated . .

I agree with you on the top post, but I would not apply that logic to weather in Ireland. From people surfing in storm Ophelia to the few who did get stranded in this more recent event, it's easy to see some people are not wise enough to the dangers of meteorological events here, possibly because Ireland is normally such a relatively safe place, weather wise.

As to the second post, it's well and good for you when you didn't have to go to work.
I live in a rural area too (old renovated house, before the one-off housing dig is whipped out again), and when weather conditions deteriorate, I still feel under pressure to go to work.

I make a judgement call of course, but you know what, I am so glad of the red warning absolving me from making that call. I have a family to take care of, and since I'm a diligent worker I would be torn between feeling the need to slide down the hill with a possibility I may crash my invaluable car, or that I couldn't get back up in the evening after work, and staying at home at the risk of my employer disbelieving or disregarding my motives.
And that's even without considering the possibility I could break a leg or be otherwise injured in an accident in bad weather, and then be incapacitated and house bound for heaven knows how long.

As regards your third post, I shudder to think what would have happened to the elderly people I know if they had chanced taking the car down to town, had there not been a red warning. And they might have, had they not been warned that this was a serious event.


I do agree that the Red warnings may need to be applied more regionally in some situations, but I was following the evolution yesterday and can understand how there was a real possibility all and any county in Ireland could have been affected, making it a tough but necessary call.

weisses wrote: »

You base your warning on a forecast .. And you are not gonna bring a town to a standstill with a red warning 24 hours prior to what your own forecast is telling you .... That is ridiculous and will get people not adhering to red level warnings in the future

So it really isn't. The point of my question was to see are you basing your opinion off of risk assessment or hindsight? It's easy for anyone to criticise after the fact...but it defeats the purpose of what a warning is. The idea is, is that they have as you stated, forecasted and issued a warning 24 hours in advance right, so this is the crucial part, they only have an idea of what happens in those next 24 hours with multiple possibilities and variations on those ideas. Also bear in mind, while they can try their best to forecast, it can change, winds could change directions and different areas are hit worse than thought. This isn't the UK, it's not like we're talking about say the difference between Newcastle and Southampton, we're talking more like 50km. Very small distance for a storm like this to change direction and hit. That's the point of the warning. The warning is there to say "We think this is what will happen...but there is a RISK that this will change and this could happen, so we are WARNING you that this is a real possibility". It's unfair to then turn around afterwards and say "one of the possibilities didn't happen, you're useless".

A Rogue Hobo wrote: »

So it really isn't. The point of my question was to see are you basing your opinion off of risk assessment or hindsight? It's easy for anyone to criticise after the fact...but it defeats the purpose of what a warning is. The idea is, is that they have as you stated, forecasted and issued a warning 24 hours in advance right, so this is the crucial part, they only have an idea of what happens in those next 24 hours with multiple possibilities and variations on those ideas. Also bear in mind, while they can try their best to forecast, it can change, winds could change directions and different areas are hit worse than thought. This isn't the UK, it's not like we're talking about say the difference between Newcastle and Southampton, we're talking more like 50km. Very small distance for a storm like this to change direction and hit. That's the point of the warning. The warning is there to say "We think this is what will happen...but there is a RISK that this will change and this could happen, so we are WARNING you that this is a real possibility". It's unfair to then turn around afterwards and say "one of the possibilities didn't happen, you're useless".

Let me try to summerize this


When various parts/areas of the population are more affected by the red warning then the event itself then there is something wrong

And No a storm doesn't race 24 hours ahead 24 hours prior to the forecast ... weather can be unpredictable but there are limits

weisses wrote: »

A Rogue Hobo wrote: »

So it really isn't. The point of my question was to see are you basing your opinion off of risk assessment or hindsight? It's easy for anyone to criticise after the fact...but it defeats the purpose of what a warning is. The idea is, is that they have as you stated, forecasted and issued a warning 24 hours in advance right, so this is the crucial part, they only have an idea of what happens in those next 24 hours with multiple possibilities and variations on those ideas. Also bear in mind, while they can try their best to forecast, it can change, winds could change directions and different areas are hit worse than thought. This isn't the UK, it's not like we're talking about say the difference between Newcastle and Southampton, we're talking more like 50km. Very small distance for a storm like this to change direction and hit. That's the point of the warning. The warning is there to say "We think this is what will happen...but there is a RISK that this will change and this could happen, so we are WARNING you that this is a real possibility". It's unfair to then turn around afterwards and say "one of the possibilities didn't happen, you're useless".

Let me try to summerize this


When various parts/areas of the population are more affected by the red warning then the event itself then there is something wrong

And No a storm doesn't race 24 hours ahead 24 hours prior to the forecast ... weather can be unpredictable but there are limits

Minority parts of the population. Majority have been effected by the event itself. Therefore there is something right?

Casualsingby wrote: »

On Wednesday, every weather model had me seeing no snow from Emma to 1 to 3cm worst case scenario and not until the early house of Friday. I also had no chance of showers up to it.

At 11pm Wednesday Met eireann released a red warning for my county, I kept checking models and it keep downgrading my snow chances, a trace worst case scenario. Still everywhere shut yesterday with no snow on ground and no chance of any snow for the day at all, and no chance of evening seeing anything falling until after midnight.

At midnight warning was reduced to an orange. 25 hours of a red warning and no snow. Schools and most places closed today and for what. Absolutely nothing not a single flake. Dropping a red warning that never was at midnight just messed people for another day with work etc.


I would completely understand if the weather models were showing heavy snow my for location and by an act of god they got it wrong BUT it never did at ANY stage. Absolute joke.

-25 hours of red warning and no snow
-No weather model ever indicated any snow for here
-dropping it at midnight when they knew earlier they could have and not f people for another day, they just wanted to save face yesterday.


25 red snow warning and not one weather model showed it to begin with. They need to revamp their warning system it's a total joke.

Wrong way around. The red warning is in case their model is wrong and "by act of God" you did get heavy snow when none had been forecast. Mostly because it would not have taken an act of god for any part of the country to have received large amounts of snow.

Oh the ARPEGE is a well-regarded model with good accuracy and results over this winter season, before you say.

If there was even a small chance of significant snow in the north west why was this not on the forecast.
How can Met eireann issue a red warning for an area when their "own forecast" isn't predicting particularly bad weather for that area. I fully accept weather is unpredictable but snow showers do not merit red warnings. If they did Met eireann have missed out on a few red warnings where I live this year so far.
The Snow combined with Storm emma is a different thing altogether but that is not the issue for me. It is the red warning at 11.00 pm Wed which effectively closed the country on Thursday.
I know Met eireann, and the government have to speak with one voice any mixed messages would be disastrous but I wonder what is been said at private meetings now.
Northern Ireland functioned for the last 2 days, the parts of Ireland in the same geographic region did not. I don't think NI authorities are irresponsible, I think the government here was too quick to give a countrywide red alert, a bit of regional awareness was needed

MJohnston wrote: »

Nope, coastal Donegal is shown as receiving red warning levels of snow too - and to be clear that did happen, I have photos from my cousins up in Falcarragh who had to ski to the shops. But, whether or not it happened, it was shown to happen on this model and others.

Additionally, take a look at that massive patch of snow out at sea just to the north of Donegal - that was moving east-to-west and had the potential to shift slightly south which would have dumped snow on lots of the north Donegal coast (which I believe did happen).

apologies i never knew 10cm of snow now warranted a red weather warning i stand corrected

had that a few times this year already up here

Evelyn Cusack, specifically said on RTE news that the red alert for Donegal was initiated because of the temperatures and the wind chill.

Casualsingby wrote: »

Isloated parts of North donegal had snow from streamers all week, nothing of consequence was expected there from Emma. Here's the subsequent runs and they kept the red and your ss was worst case scenario from long ago red over errigal. Even Gaoth probably the most knowledgeable poster on boards said he couldn't understand the national Red was nonsense for the north west. I could post numerous other ss of models showing it not evening reaching the north west. They kept a red for no reason and yesterday Emma if she hit the north west wouldn't have happened until after midnight yet everywhere was closed all day with no snow on the ground and none forecast to fall that day. But lets not let facts get in the way of constant met eireann circle jerk. No one or no thing is above criticism, a red warning for 25 hours, wait until midnight to remove it, when they knew earlier in the day it wasn't needed, they even said it on the radio but still kept. Completely shambolic.

I'll restate the facts - that ARPEGE run is from 0Z yesterday and shows levels of snowfall in Donegal that would trigger a red warning by themselves (without any lying snowfall - which there was). Here's a frame from the 6Z WRF model from yesterday showing the same:



The HIRLAM 6Z from yesterday also shows a red level over most of the country:



And I'll repeat this is without considering already accumulated lying snow.