Fancies For Today III

akelly02

SonOfGoat wrote: »

Last bet until this evening for me.

2.45 Leicester, Ballyellis. The horse is about 8/11 at the minute which is short enough but I'm willing to take them odds, I think it will win very handy today. There is nothing ordinary about the horse it's something a little special and an owners dream, pure consistent. I had a 'glance' at the second fav and disregarded it, nothing else in the race. Should be a case of 'jumps around wins.'

beaten at 4/9

good shout earlier

SonOfGoat

Last bet of the night for me. 5.15 Kempton, Group One Power, around 13/2 and had a few quid E.W on it. Should run well.

I'm out

SonOfGoat

akelly02 wrote: »

beaten at 4/9

good shout earlier

Yes, run was too bad to be true. I'm scratching my head. I thought the ground would be OK. I'll watch it again later and see if there is anything noticeable.

akelly02

SonOfGoat wrote: »

Last bet of the night for me. 5.15 Kempton, Group One Power, around 13/2 and had a few quid E.W on it. Should run well.

I'm out

well done !

Chelmsford 30 Jan

Going for two in the worst race on the card here, the:

8.00 - Eesha's Smile / Savoy Brown - both each way

I think outside of the favourite (Famous Dynasty) who shoulders top weight and is up 4lb for his facile victory at
Lingfield last time over the same trip (10f), Eesha's Smile's run last time out also over the 1m2f
at Lingfield, on the same card as Famous Dynasty's win (Quicker time in Eesha's Smile's race)
represents the best form on offer here.

The Ivan Furtado horse was well supported that day but didn't have the best of luck in running,
eventually finishing 7th beaten just over 3 Lengths. P J McDonald who has an excellent strike rate (24%)
at the track takes over the steering from Jason Hart so a bold showing is expected.

Savoy Brown at a bigger price finished just 1/2 length behind Eesha's Smile that day running prominently but
fading out of it in the end. He is drawn high in tomorrow's race so could well try and make the running but there
are other frontrunners in the race too; so I'm hoping Callum Shepherd drops him in as he can also come from off
the pace.

Only a couple of books have priced this race up yet and currently Eesha's Smile can be backed at 9s and Savoy Brown
at 20s. Will have a bit each way on them both and a small reverse forecast tomorrow all things being equal.

There are exactly 16 runners declared in this Class 7 Handicap but I would say unlikely to be four places as doubtless there
will be at least one defection but I won't care if the selections are 1st and 2nd :P

Gluck if you're punting.

Just to add - since I started this write up Eesha's now best priced 8/1 since I
started typing this out and as low as 6s in the few books that thus far have this race priced up :mad: Might go fav before the off.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Chelmsford 30 Jan

Going for two in the worst race on the card here, the:

8.00 - Eesha's Smile / Savoy Brown - both each way

I think outside of the favourite (Famous Dynasty) who shoulders top weight and is up 4lb for his facile victory at
Lingfield last time over the same trip (10f), Eesha's Smile's run last time out also over the 1m2f
at Lingfield, on the same card as Famous Dynasty's win (Quicker time in Eesha's Smile's race)
represents the best form on offer here.

The Ivan Furtado horse was well supported that day but didn't have the best of luck in running,
eventually finishing 7th beaten just over 3 Lengths. P J McDonald who has an excellent strike rate (24%)
at the track takes over the steering from Jason Hart so a bold showing is expected.

Savoy Brown at a bigger price finished just 1/2 length behind Eesha's Smile that day running prominently but
fading out of it in the end. He is drawn high in tomorrow's race so could well try and make the running but there
are other frontrunners in the race too; so I'm hoping Callum Shepherd drops him in as he can also come from off
the pace.

Only a couple of books have priced this race up yet and currently Eesha's Smile can be backed at 9s and Savoy Brown
at 20s. Will have a bit each way on them both and a small reverse forecast tomorrow all things being equal.

There are exactly 16 runners declared in this Class 7 Handicap but I would say unlikely to be four places as doubtless there
will be at least one defection but I won't care if the selections are 1st and 2nd :P

Gluck if you're punting.

Just to add - since I started this write up Eesha's now best priced 8/1 since I
started typing this out and as low as 6s in the few books that thus far have this race priced up :mad: Might go fav before the off.

Fvk me; few more books have this race priced now. 1 @ 11/2 and 1 at 6/1, but as low as 5/2. Gordon Bennett!

SonOfGoat

akelly02 wrote: »

well done !

Thanks. I thought for a moment it was going to get caught in the final few yards but jockey 'seemed' to have a bit left up his sleeve.

SonOfGoat

I like to have a bet on the USA.... In the next the 10.46pm @ Turf Paradise, I heard a bit of something for Squidward, it's around 7/4 or 15/8. I've been backing bits and pieces but the market is not liquid at all right now. Hopefully it will win nicely.

SonOfGoat

1.20 Southwell, Astrozone, around 11/4'ish. I've backed it to win.

SonOfGoat

1.25 Limerick, Lamarckise, quite short at around 8/11 but I've taken the odds. Just finished backing the horse to win. I'm done for an hour or so.

SonOfGoat

I'm heading off for the day/evening so these are the rest of my bets.

2.10 Ffos Las, Pileon, very short at around 2/5 but again I've taken the short odds, I think it will win.

2.30 Southwell, Will To Win, around 5/4, this is a lay bet for me, I can't see it winning and it's my best bet of the day.

2.35 Limerick, Frere Fontaine, around 5/2, lay bet for me, can't see it winning.

2.55 Wincanton, Calva Dauge, around 10/11 and being honest I'm not liking the horse in this particular race. I've layed it, I don't think it will win. It might make sense to backed the 2nd fav in the race to win as it does look a 2 horse race but I've just went with the lay bet on Calva Dauge.

That's me til tomorrow, good luck to anyone betting today.

realdanbreen

SonOfGoat wrote: »

I'm heading off for the day/evening so these are the rest of my bets.

2.10 Ffos Las, Pileon, very short at around 2/5 but again I've taken the short odds, I think it will win.

2.30 Southwell, Will To Win, around 5/4, this is a lay bet for me, I can't see it winning and it's my best bet of the day.

2.35 Limerick, Frere Fontaine, around 5/2, lay bet for me, can't see it winning.

2.55 Wincanton, Calva Dauge, around 10/11 and being honest I'm not liking the horse in this particular race. I've layed it, I don't think it will win. It might make sense to backed the 2nd fav in the race to win as it does look a 2 horse race but I've just went with the lay bet on Calva Dauge.

That's me til tomorrow, good luck to anyone betting today.

The idea of this thread is to put up fancys. This was never meant to be someone putting up names of money on horses. So far on this page alone you have named an 8/11, 4/9,8/11,2/5, 10/11.

Nobody needs that.

SonOfGoat

realdanbreen wrote: »

The idea of this thread is to put up fancys. This was never meant to be someone putting up names of money on horses. So far on this page alone you have named an 8/11, 4/9,8/11,2/5, 10/11.

Nobody needs that.

I'm open to any criticism, but come on your post is just foolish. Get a life.

realdanbreen

SonOfGoat wrote: »

I'm open to any criticism, but come on your post is just foolish. Get a life.

No, criticism would be if I said you were a clown.

My post was simply pointing out that you don't appear to understand what the thread is for.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Chelmsford 30 Jan

Going for two in the worst race on the card here, the:

8.00 - Eesha's Smile / Savoy Brown - both each way

I think outside of the favourite (Famous Dynasty) who shoulders top weight and is up 4lb for his facile victory at
Lingfield last time over the same trip (10f), Eesha's Smile's run last time out also over the 1m2f
at Lingfield, on the same card as Famous Dynasty's win (Quicker time in Eesha's Smile's race)
represents the best form on offer here.

The Ivan Furtado horse was well supported that day but didn't have the best of luck in running,
eventually finishing 7th beaten just over 3 Lengths. P J McDonald who has an excellent strike rate (24%)
at the track takes over the steering from Jason Hart so a bold showing is expected.

Savoy Brown at a bigger price finished just 1/2 length behind Eesha's Smile that day running prominently but
fading out of it in the end. He is drawn high in tomorrow's race so could well try and make the running but there
are other frontrunners in the race too; so I'm hoping Callum Shepherd drops him in as he can also come from off
the pace.

Only a couple of books have priced this race up yet and currently Eesha's Smile can be backed at 9s and Savoy Brown
at 20s. Will have a bit each way on them both and a small reverse forecast tomorrow all things being equal.

There are exactly 16 runners declared in this Class 7 Handicap but I would say unlikely to be four places as doubtless there
will be at least one defection but I won't care if the selections are 1st and 2nd :P

Gluck if you're punting.

Just to add - since I started this write up Eesha's now best priced 8/1 since I
started typing this out and as low as 6s in the few books that thus far have this race priced up :mad: Might go fav before the off.

Was 3s this morning so no bet on this one.. Way too short.

Just backed the other one each way

Will back a few today to win for smallish stakes.

Chepstow

Two very speculative ones here

1.20 Steel Express
3.25 Gang Warfare


Newcastle

Think these have a pretty good chance at decent prices (most of them anyway)

4.15 Jus Pires
5.45 Little Jo
6.45 Waitaki (not much of a price on this one, seen money, about 2/1)
7.15 Amood ( I think this one is interesting down in trip running over 6f for the first time in almost 2 years)

No strong fancies so just going for wins on the lot for low stakes.

Gluck

zimmermania

There is a story regarding Feather Step which cant be written here suffice to say he has been very well punted to win the last in Dundalk.Price much reduced now at 4 to 1 but could not post before now.

realdanbreen

zimmermania wrote: »

There is a story regarding Feather Step which cant be written here suffice to say he has been very well punted to win the last in Dundalk.Price much reduced now at 4 to 1 but could not post before now.

20-1 into 4-1 is a bit of a move alright although I see my old buddy Comhghairedeas in the same race at an appealing 11-1.

4068ac1elhodqr

zimmermania wrote: »

There is a story regarding Feather Step which cant be written here suffice to say he has been very well punted to win the last in Dundalk.Price much reduced now at 4 to 1 but could not post before now.

Got 34.0 last night, when doing the weekly pre-friday e/w accas. Choosen simply by looking for any unusual subtle shortenting patterns across all cards.

With such a large price drop wonder if he'll be pulled or made void (as often happens when a price goes loopy).

Another popular 20's price generally still available in 20:00, and more than a few erratic movements in 19:30. It's a funny old game.

I think Tyrconnell has an excellent chance in the next at Dundalk at an okayish 5/1

zimmermania

A big priced one and a short priced one are my two for today.

The 3.0c at Sandown is nearly always won by one at the lower end of the handicap and ECHIQUIER fits the bill .Stays well acts on heavy and has had 4 or 5 runs since coming from France,no certainty but i backed it ew at 20s 5 places.

CHENG GONG is the short priced one,Jack Mitchell goes to Kempton and stays late to ride this one for Tom Clover and should be rewarded with a win,he has only one other mount there so at 5/2 CHENG GONG is the bet in the 8.15

zimmermania

ROTHERWICK who always runs on too late is stepped up to a mile and a half and gets a final chance with a tenner ew in the 7.15.

Evening Ladies and Gents

Here's one I like for tomorrow.

2.30 Leopardstown Cuneo

I'm liking this fella in the William Fry Handicap Hurdle to continue the good run of Henry De Bromhead and Gigginstown (well they pretty much always are having a "good run")

The capable Hugh Morgan takes over riding duties from Rachael; who has ridden him every time since he won his bumper in Tramore close on two years ago now.

I believe this is a deliberate ploy using the conditional to take off 7lbs. Rachael rides Stacks Mountain - another of Henry's (non Gigginstown horse) - who has his chance also.

Going back to the selection however; I want to look at its last four runs (2 chase and 2 hurdles races) where he ran no sort of a race in any of them. I don't think he has taken to the larger obstacles; at least not yet anyway, and his last two hurdles races he has finished well down the field. In both his hurdle runs he ran his races from off the pace - either in mid div or towards the back. I believe he needs to be ridden prominently to give his best showing.

This is why I think H Morgan gets the spin tomorrow. He was favourite for this race last year and came fifth being ridden prominently by Blackmore. I believe this race has been the target since. The horse is only rated 1lb higher thanks to a couple of poor runs over the sticks since then. I think this C & D winner will be ridden close to the front, if not from the front.

This lightly raced horse has plenty in his favour in a typically open race where I think one of the reserves (only in Ireland :rolleyes:) is vying for favouritism.

Available to back at 40s in Boyle's and Paddy's currently where I believe there are 5 and 6 places available (online anyway - not sure about shops), this horse for me is an excellent each way bet. I really hope he's ridden positively, because if not, well

Gluck if you're having a bet

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

ROTHERWICK who always runs on too late is stepped up to a mile and a half and gets a final chance with a tenner ew in the 7.15.

runs on too late again at 20/1 beat less than a length and a half in 4th.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Evening Ladies and Gents

Here's one I like for tomorrow.

2.30 Leopardstown Cuneo

I'm liking this fella in the William Fry Handicap Hurdle to continue the good run of Henry De Bromhead and Gigginstown (well they pretty much always are having a "good run")

The capable Hugh Morgan takes over riding duties from Rachael; who has ridden him every time since he won his bumper in Tramore close on two years ago now.

I believe this is a deliberate ploy using the conditional to take off 7lbs. Rachael rides Stacks Mountain - another of Henry's (non Gigginstown horse) - who has his chance also.

Going back to the selection however; I want to look at its last four runs (2 chase and 2 hurdles races) where he ran no sort of a race in any of them. I don't think he has taken to the larger obstacles; at least not yet anyway, and his last two hurdles races he has finished well down the field. In both his hurdle runs he ran his races from off the pace - either in mid div or towards the back. I believe he needs to be ridden prominently to give his best showing.

This is why I think H Morgan gets the spin tomorrow. He was favourite for this race last year and came fifth being ridden prominently by Blackmore. I believe this race has been the target since. The horse is only rated 1lb higher thanks to a couple of poor runs over the sticks since then. I think this C & D winner will be ridden close to the front, if not from the front.

This lightly raced horse has plenty in his favour in a typically open race where I think one of the reserves (only in Ireland :rolleyes:) is vying for favouritism.

Available to back at 40s in Boyle's and Paddy's currently where I believe there are 5 and 6 places available (online anyway - not sure about shops), this horse for me is an excellent each way bet. I really hope he's ridden positively, because if not, well

Gluck if you're having a bet

Ground appears to be decent; should suit the selection

Gwan Hugh Morgan :pac: :pac: :pac:

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Evening Ladies and Gents

Here's one I like for tomorrow.

2.30 Leopardstown Cuneo

I'm liking this fella in the William Fry Handicap Hurdle to continue the good run of Henry De Bromhead and Gigginstown (well they pretty much always are having a "good run")

The capable Hugh Morgan takes over riding duties from Rachael; who has ridden him every time since he won his bumper in Tramore close on two years ago now.

I believe this is a deliberate ploy using the conditional to take off 7lbs. Rachael rides Stacks Mountain - another of Henry's (non Gigginstown horse) - who has his chance also.

Going back to the selection however; I want to look at its last four runs (2 chase and 2 hurdles races) where he ran no sort of a race in any of them. I don't think he has taken to the larger obstacles; at least not yet anyway, and his last two hurdles races he has finished well down the field. In both his hurdle runs he ran his races from off the pace - either in mid div or towards the back. I believe he needs to be ridden prominently to give his best showing.

This is why I think H Morgan gets the spin tomorrow. He was favourite for this race last year and came fifth being ridden prominently by Blackmore. I believe this race has been the target since. The horse is only rated 1lb higher thanks to a couple of poor runs over the sticks since then. I think this C & D winner will be ridden close to the front, if not from the front.

This lightly raced horse has plenty in his favour in a typically open race where I think one of the reserves (only in Ireland :rolleyes:) is vying for favouritism.

Available to back at 40s in Boyle's and Paddy's currently where I believe there are 5 and 6 places available (online anyway - not sure about shops), this horse for me is an excellent each way bet. I really hope he's ridden positively, because if not, well

Gluck if you're having a bet

No joy

A lot of petrol burnt early on

Was off the bridle most of the way

zimmermania

The last time WINDSOR CROSS ran in a class 6 the gelding won,now in a claiming class 6 he has lots in his favour.

His last run over a mile is well worth looking at,out the back early on he came very wide with a strong run making up a lot of ground and finished best of all.Would have won in another 50 yards and running over 2 furlongs further (has won over the trip) he should beat the fav who is going for a 4 timer.

I will have a decent bet bet on this one and can see the grey come with a strong run and win going away,anyone who looks at his last run will be impressed.

Howdy folks

Today's Picks

Carlisle

1.50 Elite Icon 40/1 Lads/Boyles
Dora De Janeiro 12/1 Lads/PP/Boyles

4.30 Curramore 12/1 Lads/Boyles


Wolverhampton

5.00 Darwina 33/1 PP/Boyles/Lads

5.30 Little Miss Kodi 16/1 PP/Lads/Boyles

6.00 Fact or Fable 8/1 Lads

6.30 Street Life 17/2 Lads 8/1 PP/Boyles

8.30 Prince Consort 25/1 Boyles/Lads/PP

Each way on all of them

Gluck if your having a punt

SonOfGoat

4pm, Carlisle, Haul Us In, around 2/1. Had a nice win bet on it, my best bet of the week. Should win easy.

akelly02

SonOfGoat wrote: »

4pm, Carlisle, Haul Us In, around 2/1. Had a nice win bet on it, my best bet of the week. Should win easy.

should win easy..its such an easy game at times, isnt it goaty ?