Fancies For Today III

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120372525#Comment_120372525

Quality Zim!

zimmermania

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120312788#Comment_120312788

Galahad Threepwood travels so well in races its a pleasure to watch,looked as iff he would win easily last time when going clear but whether the step up in trip or idling in front was responsible he tied up in the last 100 yards and only just hung on.

Dropped back in trip Galahead could make light of a 5 lbs penalty and is worth supporting in the 3.25 at Warwick,4/1 at the moment and might drift a little to make a good ew bet.

inajock

Powers going free bet 2nd and 3rd in shops

realdanbreen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120385647#Comment_120385647

Fell unfortunately zim, but one to keep an eye on.

zimmermania

Too early to say how it would have turned out but bits always annoying when they fall in a hurdle race.

zimmermania

Might not have a bet sat for some reason the racing does not appeal to me.

I looked at the Irish Lincoln but with 27 runners on heavy ground it wont be easy,the racing post says high numbers are favoured but on heavy it seems to me that low numbers have the edge.

The first and 2nd favs are UK trained but the 2 I liked in the race are Cosmic Vega and Emporio but both are drawn high so I will probably just watch and see whose horses are forward.

Ado McGuinness runs 7 and its impossible to know which is best.

I may be tempted to have a small ew on Raffles Wonder in the 5.20 at Kelso,I tipped him here when he won and he is decent enough but this is a final and much tougher than his last win with a few unexsposed horses who may be hard to beat.

I will probably have a few bets on the golf matches and just watch the racing and wait for another day.

zimmermania

A glutton for punishment,I see Emporio is heavily backed,well in with apprentice taking off 7 lbs,however with the possibility of a rough race and lots seeking room a 7 lb claimer may not be the answer and despite not knowing h OJ w the draw will work out I am having a very small bet at 25 t01 (tenner ew) on Cosmic Vega despite the draw.

Horse is well suited by heavy ground and the price is tasty so cant resist.

zimmermania

BallyGeary won the the 4.10 at Kelso in good style,that's the hatrick for him since he was 2nd to Raffles Wonder which gives some small hope for my tenner ew.

zimmermania

My first thoughts about todays racing were correct and i was unlikely to make any money if i backed a few more,kept losses to a minimum and Raffles Wonder ran ok,should win again when returned to his own level.

zimmermania

Rossa Ryan goes to Southwell just to ride one horse Greystoke,in a tricky contest.

Greystoke hung left on his last two runs and may be helped going left handed today,5s with Ladbrokes who are money back for a tenner if 2nd 3rd or 4th to the jolly.

zimmermania

First big handicap of turf flat season takes place on Sat at 3.35.

The Lincoln has been targeted by classier types in recent years with younger unexsposed horses being all the rage,however favs have a poor record and I always seek a bit of value in the race.

I have backed Bopedro without the first 2 in the betting at 14 to1 and at 22 to 1 6 places wit Pp.

Trained by David Omeara who won this 4 times I think he has a good chance and will handle the ground.

Omeara excels with horses from other yards and he is the 6th!! trainer to have this horse.

With Danny Tudhope on board Bopedro can go very close imo.

He finished half a length in front of the fancied Atrium last year and is now 20 lbs better off so must be backed.

In the listed race at 3 oc I like Kings Lynn ew 4 places,has won twice here and finished 2nd twice from 4 runs.

A very solid ew bet for me at around 6 or 7 to 1

zimmermania

These have heavy ground form

zimmermania

My two main bets today lost,Kings Lynn was well backed but ran no race at all never getting into the race,Bopedro ran well finishing 8th at 25 to 1 and may have a decent race in him and the 3 heavy ground horses i put up finished 2nd one of them getting our money back.

A losing day but they happen.

zimmermania

One of my favourite meetings takes place on friday,the big money championship races on the AW at Newcastle.

The meeting used to be held at Lingfield but i think Newcastle is a fairer venue with less hard luck stories.

In the last race i give an ew chance to the tough sprinter SUMMERGHAND 4.45,a great servant to David OMeara and with Danny Tudhope on board can be competitive.

The days best bet for me is the 3 year old PERDIKA,this is probably the best bet i have seen this year.This is the 3 year old championship race on the AW,worth over £77,000 to the winner, colts carry 9 stone 7 and fillies carry 9 stone 2.

On official ratings there are only 3 horses with a chance of winning,Perdika,Shouldvebeenaring and New Definition but as we know it does not always work out as it should.However i believe bookmakers have made a mistake in pricing up the race.

The fav Shouldvebeenaring is only 1 lb wrong with PERDIKA and they should finish 1st and 2nd,the 2nd fav Shaquille would be receiving 10 lbs!! from PERDIKA in a handicap but is giving 5 lbs and the price seems all wrong to me.

Everything seems right for PERDIKA,she stays further than 6 furlongs and thats important at Newcastle with the last one and a half furlongs uphill.Races are often won here by horses coming late and that will suit PERDIKA (it will also suit SUMMERGHAND).

Bookmakers are closed on friday but are betting on fridays racing now,i have had a reasonable bet ew on PERDIKA at 5/1 with PP and i may get a bigger price in one of the other shops tomorrow.

I cannot see PERDIKA out of the first 3 and am hoping to get the easter expenses.

zimmermania

Shaquille has now gone favourite for the 1.50 at Newcastle,the horse is 15 lbs "wrong" with Perdika and if Shaquilla wins it means the handicapper got his rating completely wrong or he has improved by more than 15 lbs.

I am not saying Shaquille cannot win but the evidence suggests he has a very dificult task and i would have expected his trainer to have exploited such a lenient mark before going on to better things.

Unknownability

7/1 now with Bet365.

Unknownability

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120450268#Comment_120450268

7/1 now with Bet365.

zimmermania

Sorry to the one or two on here who take an interest in my suggestions,for reasons that escape me neither horse appeared to be put into their races today.

The drift on Perdika was ominus and the ride she got puzzled me a bit,seemed to make a totally unnecessary switch to the rail when there was plenty of room where she was and not forgetting she was switched off the rail at the start anyway.

The way the race panned out suggests to me that today was not the day maybe because they felt they could not beat Shaquille (who refused to go in the stalls).

Whatever the case i will give her another chance and she is gone in the tracker,gave back a good few quid today but thats how it goes.

realdanbreen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120452547#Comment_120452547

Spot on analysis as usual zim, keep em coming.

zimmermania

The 2.25 at Muss is a decent saturday handicap,it was won by the game GWEEDORE last year and though 7 lbs higher this year i believe he can win again.

Has plenty form at the track and can go well after a break,closely matched with Autumn Festival and Abduction on previous running GWEEDORE has the benefit of Billy Loughnane in the saddle and that can make the difference with his 5 lbs claim,best price 15/2 with PP who go 4 places online i am hoping GWEEDORE will do the biz.

CH3OH

Well done Zimmer

Easy Peasy

Thanks

zimmermania

A bounce back after a disappointing day yesterday.

zimmermania

I put a bit of a write up on the Irish national at Fhouse ,as I always post here I said I would mention the one I suggested as a bit of value.

CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM ran well in the race last year and looks to be laid out for it this year,has a light weight,10 stone 1 to carry and at 33s is ew value imo,I mention a couple of more who should run well in the post.

ShamoBuc

I am Maximus 5.00 at Fairyhouse, 12/1 6 places

zimmermania

Best of luck to all,in my case all I can say is I got the price (always good) now I just need the result for a medium bet.

bassy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461298#Comment_120461298

Well done ran a cracking race at the last fence.

crushproof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461298#Comment_120461298

Thanks for that, saved the day!

zimmermania

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120462208#Comment_120462208

Well done,coming to the last you could not see him get up,had he fell at the last we would believe he would have just run into a place,thats what makes racing great.

zimmermania

Good Work does not do himself any favours by being so consistent,5 seconds on the trot means he gradually creeps up in the weights.

Some punters steer clear of horses who continually place and question their resolution.

In Good Work's case i do not think he shirks it and at 7/1 -13/2 he is an ew bet in the 2.oc at Southwell.

bassy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120467675#Comment_120467675

Unlucky Zimmer just left it a bit late at the end.