Fancies For Today III

Reidy

2nd race Chelmsford tomorrow.. Give A Little Back. This horse should have won last time out and is well handicapped here. Max bet for me all we need is Rossa to steer the horse a clear run.

Reidy

Non runner but trainer wins it with other runner and a few bets landed too by somebody

Reidy

Good word going in my local pub for Khal trained by Charlie johnston . Runs in the last race Chelmsford. Supposedly expected to put in alot better run than when last seen. 5/1

Reidy

Comes from a lad who worked in that yard going back and he has what he calls a top bet for next week. I will post it up here the evening before the race.

zimmermania

Best bet today imo is Galahad Threepwood 4.25 Doncaster,fell last time when travelling really well and a clear round today should be good enough.

Benson would probably prefer a longer trip in the 1.50 at Kelso but with a big field the pace will be strong and he will be running on and with 5 places he is an ew bet.

Blue Collar Lad could reverse placing with Hu La Bah Loo in the 2.31 Lingfield.

zimmermania

Benson did it as I suggested he might,stayed on very well,if I am not mistaken there is a hundred grand bonus for winning todays race and a handicap at Cheltenham,a claimer would deal with the penalty and Benson is tough enough to do it.

RocketRaccoon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120312788#Comment_120312788

Once again, 2 winners. Phenomenal and putting every other poster here to shame.

NATLOR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120313681#Comment_120313681

Zimmer deserves the plaudits but no need for the rest of the comment it's quiet enough in here already

realdanbreen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120313681#Comment_120313681

??

crushproof

As always, some man Zimmer. Just a shame we don't have an active group here anymore. Still delighted that someone with the knowledge of Zimmers is still posting

zimmermania

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197273#Comment_120197273

I swore i would not back MUTABAAHY again,he has run 37 times without winning and i have backed the horse more times than i care to remember and perhaps i am foolish to give him one more chance.

Rated 76 when last winning last time he now runs off 46!!,the horse always seems to be running on but never getting there.

i will have a small ew bet on when he runs in the 4.55 who is around 14/1 at wol where he has won many races,fav for the race is Seas of Elzaam,a horse who ran in the colours of York Thoroughbred racing and won a few races in the colours that i know very well.

Small stakes ew will be my bet,i will also have a little ew on BLACKCURRANT in the 8.30 at wol and expect a good run.

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120319150#Comment_120319150

Mutabaahy is 18-1 ATM on PP

Threw down a bit each way! Definitely worth the punt, Thanks @zimmermania

zimmermania

Mutabaahy is a bit of a dog these days and got a tenner ew of my money fo the last time running on from last when the the race is practically over.Will probably win now that i have given up on him,has plenty of ability just wont use it.

realdanbreen

There's always Cheltenham Zim!

Reidy

Today's the day for wadacre grace at Lingfield.

jack01986

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120325405#Comment_120325405

Nice one!

Reidy

Southwold 8.00 southwell looks a good bet to follow up having beaten a few of these already.

Reidy

Jilly Cooper e/w in the next at southwell also fancied to go well

Reidy

Pons aelius 5.05 kempton tomorrow ready to go.

realdanbreen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326657#Comment_120326657

I think we might be approaching day 12 in Frank Kelly's 12 days of Christmas, if you get my drift!

zimmermania

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120322194#Comment_120322194

I am looking forward to it but setting ground rules so that i do not contribute too much to the bookies.

Not getting involved with any short irish ones,cant back them and cant back against them so will swerve a lot of the novice races,most will be won by the irish runners but not easy predict which one wins.

I will have a few quid ew on most of the handicaps,paying attention to horses who did not win lto,have Cheltenham form,are campaigned with this meeting in mind,tenderly handled on last run,running on from off the pace showing that the horse should be peaking at the meeting,5/1 to 16/1 betting range but prepared to back one ew at a bigger price at early odds.

Cant emphasise enough the value of course form,horses who have run well at previous festivals are sure to do so again and sometimes start at decent prices because they may have form figures that look like

4 0 5 6 or something like that and may be dropped a few pounds especially if a bit of an eyecatcher on one or more of those runs.

Best of luck to all and remember a 5/1 winner at one of the smaller tracks pays the same as a 5/1 winner at Cheltenham.

zimmermania

A friend of mine told me that Pic Roc,trained by Bryn Pauling is thought to be useful,this was not in relation to todays race (5.oc Wincanton).I had a look at the race and while the fav Go West is trained by Paul Nicholls the horse has had a couple of chances and is no world beater and is too short imo.

Pic Roc ran a promising race almost 4 months ago and if ready to go today is worth backing.With PP going money back if 2nd or 3rd I had a few tenners ew in the shop.

It looks a 3 horse ra e with Bentlys Return also having a chance.

zimmermania

Money back and a few free bets so no harm done.

realdanbreen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120332682#Comment_120332682

Out of curiosity zim, when you say not getting involved with any short irish ones, what would you regard as too skinny?

Reidy

Dubai leader us out to win this eve at jempto and should go very well. Military two steps and Beautiful eyes next week are both worth noting if running. Get on the leader first and foremost.

Reidy

8.00 Kempton.

zimmermania

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120339212#Comment_120339212

5/2 is too short for me in the novice races except if the field cuts up,but there is more to concern me in those races.

I cant be bothered trying to work out if an irish horse can beat a shorter priced runner from the same stable on the evidence of a couple of runs and we have all seen fancied ones beaten by less fancied stablemates.

I wouldnt totally rule out backing an unexposed novice ew at a bigger price with an extra place or 2 but 5/1 upwards would be required and even then i would be slow to get involved as young novices can improve rapidly and we do not have sufficient information.

At least with the handicaps we have more to go on and stats going back many years re weight,age,ground and much more and up to 7 places (like the Imperial cup at Sandown tomorrow PP go 7 places online and i am backing one in it).

I am aware big handicaps are not for many punters but i always like to try and find a value horse in those races and i do have some success with them at decent prices.

zimmermania

MONVEIL in the 2.25 Sandown is a good ew bet if racing goes ahead 6 places online paddy power and RAFFLES WONDER who won easily two months ago can win the 5.05 at AYR beating the odds on fav.

zimmermania

Givega is also fancied for the Imperial Cup and I know Gary Moore thinks a lot if the horse,however this is his first run in a handicap and his only poor run was on bad ground.

The stats say that it is hard t OJ win this with more than 11 stone as only 3 horses carried over 11 stone in the last 20 years and two carried 11-1 and one carried 11-2.

The ground will make th IU s a real stamina test and I will stick with Monveil.

CH3OH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120343602#Comment_120343602

Raffles wonder - Non runner