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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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George Sunsnow

I’d actually prefer ec phantom easterly m to be saying no at this stage to be quite honest in favour of what it suggests when it has certain data from an actually occurred strat warm

pad199207

ECM says no so far and most likely will be correct. Why cant we ever have cross model agreement on an easterly?

Its never a good sign when ECM says no and to be honest i would nearly dismiss that GFS run this evening.

BLIZZARD7

Was just going to post the control run - outrageous, Very cold from day 8 onwards -

Kermit.de.frog

Something on the boil. GFS Control run is broadly similar in evolution.

sryanbruen

The best run of the Winter award goes to the GFS 12z :P. Oh lordy lord.

sryanbruen

Yep, what an awesome GFS 12z already!

Kermit.de.frog

Sign of amplification in the jet stream at 168 hrs on the GFS...good sign

Lumi

Mod Note
A large number of off topic posts have been moved to the Winter Discussion thread.

Just to remind you all

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

BLIZZARD7

pad199207 wrote: »

Charts from the 17, then 19th and now the 26th? I think this is going down a very familiar route....

There are plenty of excellent charts at days 7-10 if you look. In fact as Kermit points out - the GFS is bringing the colder solution closer with nice height rises to our north in place by +192hrs. The ECM is much flatter and the eps in general aren't as good as yesterday so it would be nice if it flipped back this evening... It's not fair to say we're looking further into FI yet though, The SSW is starting tomorrow, still looking like a quick trop response if we're going to see its impacts in under 10 days.

The zonal wind reversal is still looking extreme - posted by sryanbruen earlier on, the models are likely still getting to grips with such a huge change.

pad199207

derekon wrote: »

Whet route is that? The "always next week and then suddenly it's Spring" route? That's the road most travelled for us boardsies!!

D

Yep thats the one

derekon

pad199207 wrote: »

Charts from the 17, then 19th and now the 26th? I think this is going down a very familiar route....

Whet route is that? The "always next week and then suddenly it's Spring" route? That's the road most travelled for us boardsies!!

D

pad199207

sryanbruen wrote: »

Can I order P07 please?

Charts from the 17, then 19th and now the 26th? I think this is going down a very familiar route....

sryanbruen

Can I order P07 please?

Kermit.de.frog

GFS has brought change forward somewhat to 192

Rougies

Large Funeral wrote: »

The SSW and easterlies are hopeful for cold lovers. However i can't help look at the charts and note dates like 24th February. We're heading out of the 'core' of the winter. 3 hrs more daylight than late December and so on. Also we're encroaching on Spring and the growing season.

I know we've had memorable lasting snowfalls like 25/26 February 1947 and obviously more recently around 22/23 March 2013 in Northern Ireland. But i wish these synoptics were predicted 2 months ago...even a month.

I think a decent cold easterly in late feb / early march would absolutely destroy any notions you have of a couple of extra daylight hours and sun strength being a major factor regarding temperatures and snow accumulations.

It is a factor of course, but we're usually so marginal that the heat from a bear sh1tting in the woods (if we had bears) upstream would make the difference between rain and snow even in the deepest depths of winter.

If a potent easterly flow from a cold russia/europe happens before St. Patricks Day we'll be good.

NAGDEFI

The SSW and easterlies are hopeful for cold lovers. However i can't help look at the charts and note dates like 24th February. We're heading out of the 'core' of the winter. 3 hrs more daylight than late December and so on. Also we're encroaching on Spring and the growing season.

I know we've had memorable lasting snowfalls like 25/26 February 1947 and obviously more recently around 22/23 March 2013 in Northern Ireland. But i wish these synoptics were predicted 2 months ago...even a month.

sdanseo

The JMA and ECM resolutions for Wednesday's storm event look potentially quite dangerous for the northwest. There's a gradient of 10mb there contained within Mayo alone.

Meteorite58

ECM still keeping that Depression close to our shores next Weds/ Thurs.

The GFS has it tracking it much further North , big change to earlier runs, might come back more in line with the ECM I reckon.

Meteorite58

Looking Tasty BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7

This evenings ECM

BLIZZARD7

Superb ensemble mean and a very strong signal for scandi blocking at such a long range on the 12z GFS -

Control run ~

BLIZZARD7

pad199207 wrote: »

Can you just imagine if that was the +48 chart

One can dream, the country would come to a standstill.

pad199207

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Today's best run goes to ensemble 15 from the 06z GFS - an easterly to rival any of the classics... If only

Can you just imagine if that was the +48 chart

BLIZZARD7

Today's best run goes to ensemble 15 from the 06z GFS - an easterly to rival any of the classics... If only

patneve2

Looks like we'll have to deal with plenty more shots of PM air for at least another week. Starting to really hope for a pattern change now around the 18th/19th, these waves of PM air have to be incredibly potent (see 1984) to get anything significant here (+5cm) in the east.

sryanbruen

ECM 00z for next Thursday.

Meanwhile, at the end of the run.....

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/961494079480778752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMJVentrice%2Fstatus%2F961494079480778752

https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2018_02/5a7ce9ba545df_ScreenShot2018-02-09at00_20_56.png.68516cea3a133f8b168da7e44ebfc9a5.png

so, hopefully it does go right for us and we get two weeks of dry snow nirvana!

As I’ve been saying, 1985 is the only example of such a PV split as the one here in February 2018 and that had a quick tropospheric response - in less than 2 weeks for Ireland and instantaneously for Europe.

You could be most likely correct to the model response being towards MJO but then again, I have little to no knowledge regarding that oscillation and I struggle to learn about it

.

Imagine if the SSW after all this ruined our cold spell from being prolonged...... I’d say that’s an unlikely occurrence fortunately.

nacho libre

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/961494079480778752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMJVentrice%2Fstatus%2F961494079480778752

https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2018_02/5a7ce9ba545df_ScreenShot2018-02-09at00_20_56.png.68516cea3a133f8b168da7e44ebfc9a5.png

so, hopefully it does go right for us and we get two weeks of dry snow nirvana!

nacho libre

Donegal Storm wrote: »

I know little of the physics behind strat warmings but its only forecast to get going in 2-3 days time yet the pattern change starts just a few days later so it's hard to believe the two are directly connected. The NH profile is already heavily amplified at the moment so that disruption to flow probably has more to do with it

ECMWF and GFS are actually broadly similar at 240z despite the big changes run to run so definitely seems to be a strong signal for something

What you could be seeing in the models is the effect of mjo going to phase 8- this is independent of the strat warming. Although strat warmings don't always have a lag effect of two weeks. We should still be cautious about it all, because even a severly weakened piece of vortex in the wrong place could ruin our chances. There is no guarantee the hudson bay piece of vortex gets obliterated.

Meteorite58

Worth keeping an eye on next Weds/ Thurs to see if this develops into a Windy/ stormy event. Looks like remaining quite cold next week for the most part.