Winter 2017-18: Discussion

icesnowfrost

Has anyone started a new page for the coming possible snow event tonight and up to Wednesday?

sryanbruen

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Has anyone started a new page for the coming possible snow event tonight and up to Wednesday?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057828884&page=29

Burts Bee

Is it way more windy and wet this winter than normal? We've moved from city to countryside and the ground is drenched all the time and the wind is crazy!

JCX BXC

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Has anyone started a new page for the coming possible snow event tonight and up to Wednesday?

Click the link at the top of the page that says weather and you can look yourself!

sryanbruen

Burts Bee wrote: »

Is it way more windy and wet this winter than normal? We've moved from city to countryside and the ground is drenched all the time and the wind is crazy!

Well, I mean if you're comparing to last year 2016/17, without a doubt yes but that was a very anticyclonic Winter. 2015/16, 2014/15 and 2013/14 were much worse than 2017/18 for windy and wet conditions.

Burts Bee

wow, were they worse, it feels very bad this year. But that could be because we're on top of a hill and way more exposed!

sryanbruen

Burts Bee wrote: »

wow, were they worse, it feels very bad this year. But that could be because we're on top of a hill and way more exposed!

Or you have a short memory.

2013/14 was the wettest Winter on record in Ireland, 2015/16 was the second wettest. December 2015 was the wettest month and warmest December on record.

Burts Bee

True too, i have a terrible memory...I used to live in a nice sheltered estate and now I live atop a hill so the weather is much more in my face this year!

Elmer Blooker

O no not again! The ECM again showing Scandinavian blocking, in fact very 1947ish looking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPw-3e_pzqU

sryanbruen

Whilst far from a SSW, the Polar Vortex gets quite a disturbance near the end of January on quite a few of the previous GFS runs.

nagdefy

Basically mid winter's day today. 15 days of January behind us and 15 to go. December brought some good snowfall to a lot of us. For that alone it's the best winter since 2010/2011 in terms of snowfall for me. And we have half a winter to go. I'm looking at the model charts since 2007. At present i actually can't see any trend. The latest GFS is zonal. The ECM has us in a kind of coll in a weeks time. The UKMO more like the later. So anything can happen really.

sryanbruen

Last night was amazing and certainly an unforgettable event, but can it get better than that? Yes it certainly can and I expect it to for certain in the next few years.

I'm starting to firm up on what February 2018 could look like. It has been a very difficult February to forecast and as you saw from my Winter forecast, there was little to no evidence pointing towards what February 2018 could be, thus why I gave a complete guess for the month.

The NAO is predicted to be positive for the rest of January, or at least on the positive side of neutral which means that pest to the southwest (yes, the Azores High) is still going to give us pains in our potential for cold.

The AO is going to go negative for the rest of January according to the GEFS meaning blocking is going to get going over the Arctic Circle. There are strong signs that the southeastern half of the USA could be in for another freeze though.

I already said about the stratosphere yesterday that the Polar Vortex is being dramatically disturbed by mini little warming events trying to go into the Arctic Circle.

ENSO was always supportive (historically) of some sort of significant cold spell in February but then again, there were a few exceptions in the analogue so I took this with a pinch of salt.

It all looks mixed for us for February. Some things are going for quite a cold spell in February at some stage whilst others are showing a close to average month. I will not put any money on what February will be like but the most likely scenario is that March will be the cold month.

Gonzo

Yesterday's event was spectacular because it really went against what I generally believe in. I am always quick to downplay Atlantic polar events because in general they rarely deliver proper snow for the majority of Ireland away from high ground and usual places in Ulster.

This winter has been very different. All of the Atlantic polar events so far this year have delivered precipitation across the country, it may not have ended up being snow everywhere, but the precipitation had no trouble moving across the country. Already this winter, we saw some significant snow across the midlands and much of the mid-west, particularly parts of Galway, Offaly and Mayo.

Then there was the rain-snow-rain event during Christmas week which gave a very temporary fall of snow here before reverting back to rain.

Yesterday's event shocked me and ended up producing a decent fall of snow by anyone's standards, an event I won't forget for a long time. We will have 5 to 6 weeks of Winter left, anything can happen during that time frame. March can also produce a real sting in it's tail. We could well end up with more events similar to yesterday over the next 5 to 8 weeks. March often see's easterly's take place too. I've also witnessed a few significant April snow events in my lifetime so anythings possible, especially this Winter as it is behaving just so differently to many of the winters since 1990.

Rock Lesnar

Im between ashbourne and dunshauglin today and theres a big thaw on here, even feeling grand in the sun, wont be much snow left here by evening, not sure what its like at home but i'll guess its pretty much the same.

George Sunsnow

Yesterday was an exception to a rule as it’s only the 2nd time in 50+ years that I remember settled snow here from a westerly

Apart from Gonzo’s area ,it wasn’t that spectacular either
A here today gone tomorrow localized affair
Crack if under it
Not much crack if like the majority less under it
More notable because it affected the greater Dublin area

KingdomRushed

Interesting that yesterday was perceived as delivering significant snow to Dublin by many. In Dublin 3 snow never settled. I doubt more than 1cm accumulated anywhere in inner city, maybe 2cm further out. Yeah it snowed, an event? Only because of how extremely unusual lying snow has now become in Dublin.

I have yet to wake up to lying snow since 2010. And by lying snow I mean something you can leave a footprint in

George Sunsnow

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Interesting that yesterday was perceived as delivering significant snow to Dublin by many. In Dublin 3 snow never settled. I doubt more than 1cm accumulated anywhere in inner city, maybe 2cm further out. Yeah it snowed, an event? Only because of how extremely unusual lying snow has now become in Dublin.

I have yet to wake up to lying snow since 2010. And by lying snow I mean something you can leave a footprint in

True
But that is because Dublin’s best source for snow are Irish Sea streamers and they need a potent deep northeasterly or easterly
There’s been little to be honest in terms of deep source or none of those since 2010

The impression in the east one or two day wonder of a westerly or northwesterly makes is considerably lessened by what a proper sourced cold like 2010 can do
If boards lives another 10 or 15 years and there’s no repeat,most posters on this forum won’t remember what snow is
That’s unlikely though

Gonzo

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Im between ashbourne and dunshauglin today and theres a big thaw on here, even feeling grand in the sun, wont be much snow left here by evening, not sure what its like at home but i'll guess its pretty much the same.

yep really disappearing fast now.Very little left in the village of Dunshaughlin itself. I am 1km away from there and the garden is still mostly white. Fields, roads and most footpaths are now completely clear.

Donegal Storm

Nearly all gone in Maynooth by 11am. Was nice to see a bit of snow last night but this is why I find it hard to get at all excited by westerlies, 5 minutes after its settled its already just a slushy mess that's more annoying than anything. Good dry powdery snow is where its at

sryanbruen

Seeing the snow falling is all I personally care about.

It sticking is just an added bonus.

JCX BXC

sryanbruen wrote: »

Seeing the snow falling is all I personally care about.

It sticking is just an added bonus.

Didn't see either yesterday

Donegal Storm

Meh I find a good heavy hail shower just as exciting as seeing snow falling. The magic with snow for me is when transforms the whole landscape, the bright deadly quiet nights etc. We'd need a good strong northerly or north easterly for that unfortunately

sryanbruen

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Meh I find a good heavy hail shower just as exciting as seeing snow falling. The magic with snow for me is when transforms the whole landscape, the bright deadly quiet nights etc. We'd need a good strong northerly or north easterly for that unfortunately

How about a scene like this?

Elmer Blooker

No ECM 12z this evening? No sign of it, tried several sources but nothing?
Probably just as well, who wants to see another phantom easterly?

MJohnston

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

No ECM 12z this evening? No sign of it, tried several sources but nothing?
Probably just as well, who wants to see another phantom easterly?

Weather.us has it

Rebelbrowser

18z gfs still showing lots of snow around tomorrow....

Soccarboy11

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

18z gfs still showing lots of snow around tomorrow....

How's it looking for us down south?

nagdefy

My niece and nephews have been off school for 2 weeks and 2 days for weather related events since October!

A full week for Ophelia. A full week in December for snow. And now Tuesday and Wednesday this week for snow. First since 2010 and prior to that 1991 i'd say.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

Did M.T Craniums winter forecast call for a mild Februrary? In a la nina winter it may well be we end up with a quite cold March.
With your post in mind, if we think back to three days before the start of the epic Winter of 1947, who would have said, based on that chart, we would get a winter of the century?
So it just shows we never know. If the monster Russian high were to link up with the arctic high we could be laughing and the pv would start to cry.
Obviously it's very unlikely to happen, though- but obviously in those rare winters everything goes just right from the perspective of a snow enthusiast.

Didn't really say anything specific about February: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105160043&postcount=175.

As I've been saying nacho libre, this Winter is just a teaser of what you might see in the next few years. A lot of very cold Winters tend to have teaser Winters before them like 1945-46 or 2008-09, even 2007-08 was a teaser at times with the brief easterly in January, very anticyclonic and frosty middle halves of December and February.

A cold March is highly likely as I've been showing - yes ENSO is one of the main things why.

giveitholly

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

18z gfs still showing lots of snow around tomorrow....

where is kermit