All Ireland SHC Final (formerly SHC thread) - READ MOD NOTE POST #1

Realt Dearg Sec

Mokuba wrote: »

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

What gives them a boost though is that they can't meet Galway before the final and have about a 12.5% chance of playing Tipp before the final, so you'd have to fancy them to make it that far, and with another game under their belt (and knowing by then a lot more about Galway and Tipp as well) they would have to be considered very good value at 5/1.

Much higher chance than 12.5% of playing Tipp again.

I'm positive if it was a Tipp/Cork Semi Final then it would be the exact same outcome as 2014.

I'm basing that figure in the assumption (not exactly fair) that any pair of winners is equal likely in the quarters. There are four possible outcomes. In half of the outcomes tipp don't get through, in a quarter of them tipp get through but can't draw cork, and in the other quarter they have a 50/50 chance of drawing cork. Accepting that they're favourites and WILL win the quarter, they have a 25% chance of playing cork (in one outcome they cannot play them in the other three is a draw for the semi where they have a 50/50 chance of playing them. Even if you go further and guarantee both a tipp and a Waterford win, it's only 50/50. But even if that is the bookies most likely outcome, on balance, right now, it looks more like that tipp will NOT play cork.

That, in my opinion, suits cork very well.

Mushy

No South stand tickets online now

I said

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

I'm basing that figure in the assumption (not exactly fair) that any pair of winners is equal likely in the quarters. There are four possible outcomes. In half of the outcomes tipp don't get through, in a quarter of them tipp get through but can't draw cork, and in the other quarter they have a 50/50 chance of drawing cork. Accepting that they're favourites and WILL win the quarter, they have a 25% chance of playing cork (in one outcome they cannot play them in the other three is a draw for the semi where they have a 50/50 chance of playing them. Even if you go further and guarantee both a tipp and a Waterford win, it's only 50/50. But even if that is the bookies most likely outcome, on balance, right now, it looks more like that tipp will NOT play cork.

That, in my opinion, suits cork very well.

Ya don't need stats for that scenario was and always would be Galway v tipp

Realt Dearg Sec

If Waterford and tipp both win there will be a draw for the semi final.

PTH2009

For season ticket holders (who didnt use the bring a friend option) Quarter Final Tickets are now in the My Tickets section

We got 2x North Stand Block 405 Row W for the Waterford vs Wexford game



Curtain Raisers
Sat 22 July- Clare vs Galway- All Ireland Minor Quarter Final 1pm
Sun 23 July- Kilkenny vs Cork- All Ireland Intermediate Hurling Final 1pm- So this a seperate comp too the under 25 championship

Gaafan17

Has anybody any barcodes of match tickets they purchased in last 4 weeks. Have signed up for GRMA and am just a few short. Would appreciate if anybody could pm me some. Thanks

Realt Dearg Sec

Tis fierce quiet around here this week. Too quiet. You can't have all the teams hiding in the long grass.

letowski

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

Tis fierce quiet around here this week. Too quiet. You can't have all the teams hiding in the long grass.

Tipperary are bottlers and will never do back to back All Irelands.

Clare are over rated after winning a soft 2013 All Ireland.

Waterford have the game ruined with their negativity.

Wexford are a crap, just a win against a poor Kilkenny team and they are all on the bandwagon.

That should get things going again.

Dyr

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

Tis fierce quiet around here this week. Too quiet. You can't have all the teams hiding in the long grass.

I don't know about that/we'll cross that bridge when we come to it/we're focused on our training/You know yourself.

bruschi

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

Tis fierce quiet around here this week. Too quiet. You can't have all the teams hiding in the long grass.

well when Noel Connors comes out and says Wexford are obviously favourites for the game and he hopes Waterford will cause an upset, then you know the grass is a long way from being cut.

mountgomery burns

bruschi wrote: »

well when Noel Connors comes out and says Wexford are obviously favourites for the game and he hopes Waterford will cause an upset, then you know the grass is a long way from being cut.

Did he actually say that?

GoldFour4

Looking forward to the match tomorrow but dreading the traffic. Managed to grab a stand ticket online at lunch. They seem to be putting them up in dribs and drabs as they are returned.

bruschi

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Did he actually say that?

unfortunately, yes.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/gaa/2017/0720/891810-connors-expect-massive-battle-against-favourites-wexfo/

Davy's arrival has transformed Wexford and the level of consistency they have shown in the league and Leinster championship makes them favourites and us underdogs for Sunday's game

C__MC

Have a sneak feeling Clare could do Tipp tomorrow. IMO it's sink or swim for this Clare team, can't keeping living off 2013

MfMan

C__MC wrote: »

Have a sneak feeling Clare could do Tipp tomorrow. IMO it's sink or swim for this Clare team, can't keeping living off 2013

Hard to see it. Bad and all as Tipp' may have been going, they have too much fire power I think for Clare, particularly if McInerney is missing/not fully fit. OTOH, even though Tipp' aren't defensively the strongest, Clare don't look like their forwards are moving fluidly enough to take advantage.

Do think it's 50/50 for the other one; not a peep outta WX since the Leinster final and Davy is sure to have them well prepped. Still not sure about WD's form; made heavy weather of beating KK but the win alone should give them a fillup. Slight leaning towards a Cork/WX semi-final.

C__MC

C__MC wrote: »

Have a sneak feeling Clare could do Tipp tomorrow. IMO it's sink or swim for this Clare team, can't keeping living off 2013

To borrow the phrase.

It's better to have loved and lost than never loved at all.

I'd rather transfer our consistent 1/4 final plus form for an ambushed AI every few years with little inbetween.

Realt Dearg Sec

letowski wrote: »

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

Tis fierce quiet around here this week. Too quiet. You can't have all the teams hiding in the long grass.

Tipperary are bottlers and will never do back to back All Irelands.

Clare are over rated after winning a soft 2013 All Ireland.

Waterford have the game ruined with their negativity.

Wexford are a crap, just a win against a poor Kilkenny team and they are all on the bandwagon.

That should get things going again.

Joking aside though is it a problem where the individual county threads are quite active but that means match discussion goes on in them, and from their individual county perspectives, instead of a bit of discussion and analysis between fans of different teams? I suppose I've noticed it before but was less bothered by it when Kilkenny were still in the hunt!

Anyway I'm going on recited right now that i would not be surprised if wexford caused the upset. They were beaten by a better team in the leinster final but they still have the ingredients and the hunger and more importantly the midfield to both make their own defensive sweeper work and to be able to run at waterford and open.things up a bit. Would need to be a bit more positive though, last day they stuck with a ludicrously defensive formation right to the end even when they clearly needed goals urgently. I dunno if davy will ever let a team of his play positively at all but if he does this weekend he could make hay.

Can't see how Clare can beat tipp though. Somebody reassure me that there's a way!

Joe_ Public

Davy's still one of the best first-season managers in the business, think there's still one good kick left in this Wexford team this year before the likely second season lethargy settles over them. If they both line up negatively, could be in for a bit of a grind and I wouldn't see Waterford as raging hot favourites at all.

adrian522

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

Can't see how Clare can beat tipp though. Somebody reassure me that there's a way!

There is a way, though I think it is unlikely, as Tyrell points out in the IT, Excluding their game against Westmeath, Tipp are conceeding an average of 28 points per game, so its not all that fanciful to suggest that the Clare forwards could put up a decent score against them.

At the other end it will need the Clare defensive system to frustrate the Tipp attack. I don't see it myself but it is at least possible

Realt Dearg Sec

That'll do. That and the few pints.

C__MC

Can't see Wexford troubling Waterford - Waterford are not a bad team with some fine players. I think they will have a big say in this championship

letowski

adrian522 wrote: »

There is a way, though I think it is unlikely, as Tyrell points out in the IT, Excluding their game against Westmeath, Tipp are conceeding an average of 28 points per game, so its not all that fanciful to suggest that the Clare forwards could put up a decent score against them.

At the other end it will need the Clare defensive system to frustrate the Tipp attack. I don't see it myself but it is at least possible

Clare's best performance in the last 3 and a half years of championship hurling would still lead to a heavy beating in this fixture. The reality is Clare have a huge margin in performance to make up to beat Tipp. It will likely require an under performace from Tipp for Clare to get over the line, provide Clare play reasonably well.

Both teams are missing 2 key players each in their full back line and both half back lines have been iffy. There's alot of favourable matchups in both forwards lines but I think Tipp will exploit them more.

redlead

I think it will be two handy wins for Tipp and Waterford. Tipp had an easy qualifier run that's given them time to sort themselves out and Clare just have an awful record against top 6 sides since they won the All Ireland 4 years ago. I haven't seen anything from them to suggest this will change. Their defence is very poor.

The Davy factor for Wexford is huge and they've had a great season but I just don't think they have the overall quality in their team to trouble Waterford at this stage of the year. I can see a Tipp Waterford final this year. Just have an inkling. I think a run in the qualifiers into the semis is much better than the long long wait after winning your province. It's a big disadvantage for any team except Kilkenny imo. All momentum and form is lost. It's just like rocking up to the first game of championship and hoping for the best.

Powerhouse

adrian522 wrote: »

There is a way, though I think it is unlikely, as Tyrell points out in the IT, Excluding their game against Westmeath, Tipp are conceeding an average of 28 points per game, so its not all that fanciful to suggest that the Clare forwards could put up a decent score against them.

e

On the other hand whah he seems not to have noticed is that Tipperary conceded 28+ points in only ONE of three games. Talk of averages implies a trend. Funnily enough Clare conceded exactly 28 points against the same opposition so will hardly run away with things today.

Realt Dearg Sec

redlead wrote: »

. It's a big disadvantage for any team except Kilkenny imo.

Wouldn't be doing my duty as a Kilkenny man (and sorry if I sound defensive) if I didn't ask why something that's a disadvantage to every other team in the sport constitutes an advantage to Kilkenny?

KevIRL

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

Wouldn't be doing my duty as a Kilkenny man (and sorry if I sound defensive) if I didn't ask why something that's an advantage to every other team in the sport constitutes an advantage to Kilkenny?

I think he means that Cody and KK over the years have managed to perfectly structure their season. Win Leinster, improve in AI semi final and peak for AI final. Many others have struggled with the break between provincial final win and AI semi final but not KK. Things like giving the squad a break from training, a couple of rounds of club games being played etc all helping.


That's my take on it anyway, could be completely wrong.

Realt Dearg Sec

Doesn't sound like there's anything magic in any of that. There seems to be an allergy to playing club matches in a lot of counties, I think that is probably a bigger problem, maybe it only surfaces during long hiatuses in inter county action. I've always the felt the fear of an injury to a player shouldn't be outweighed by the fear of staleness.

But surely if a bunch of random lads on boards understand this, the managers of inter county teams can understand it?

I just remember this being a stick to beat Kilkenny with when they were dominant, it's interesting that it seems to be statistically disadvantageous. But like I say, I'm feeling defensive because we're out!

Powerhouse

redlead wrote: »

It's a big disadvantage for any team except Kilkenny imo.

This makes no sense. While there might be pressure on Munster teams if they get a tough draw in the province (three matches) to be at a higher pitch earlier in the season (and consequently longer) than Kilkenny have had to on some occasions in recent years and that might be a disadvantage, there is no clear disadvantage to other counties in this situation regarding AI semi finals. Other counties just haven't been as good as Kilkenny is recent years as the list of All Ireland winners shows which is the simplest explanation. By your logic Kilkenny have also had some kind of advantage in All Ireland finals too as they have won them more often than not.

The whole county/club engagement in Kilkenny is massively exaggerated too. The county championship has begun only after the All Ireland hurling final during that county's successful years, many times in October. Players are not required to play do or die club championship matches during the inter-county season.

letowski

I have a feeling there is going to be a draw this weekend.

mountgomery burns

I think there have been example of Kilkenny playing better in finals etc than they have in semi finals to be honest. But generally they were so far ahead of their opponents that they made light work of it anyway.

Its a difficult thing to have the momentum halted. I personally think the reason theres so often a poor start to the championship in terms of intensity and quality combined is due to the long breaks between the league and championship. But most of the time teams are on the same level in that respect. Having to wait 5 weeks to play a match against a team thats had 3 games in 6/7 weeks is definitely a challenge.

Very interested to see how Galway adapt. Cork at least have had 3 championship against good sides so maybe it won't be as much of an issue for them.

Clare v Tipp should probably be a decent game today.
Expecting Tipp to prevail but Clare should improve for the Munster final. McInerney is a massive loss.