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PopePalpatine's Motorsport Betting Log

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Comments

  • #2


    I could have done with a red flag around 40 minutes in, before Red Bull decided to turn up the wick. :rolleyes:

    €96.39
    -€4.00
    =====
    €92.39


  • #2


    Time to put my faith in Merc's party mode:
    • €5 on Lewis to take pole @2.75 (Bwin)
    • €5 on both him and Seb to finish qualifying in the top 3 @2.1 (Bwin again)


  • #2


    Latvala is a write-off, he's had a crash.
    €92.39
    - €5.00
    ======
    €87.39


  • #2


    Time to put my faith in Merc's party mode:
    • €5 on Lewis to take pole @2.75 (Bwin)
    • €5 on both him and Seb to finish qualifying in the top 3 @2.1 (Bwin again)

    €87.39
    -€10.00
    ======
    €77.39


  • #2


    €4 on Jari-Matti Latvala to finish on the podium in this weekend's Tour de Corse @4.0 with Betsafe. They also offer 16.0 for him to win, so I'll stick €1 on that.

    888 offer 4.5 for Ogier to win, and as the reigning champion since 2013, he's worth putting €5 on IMHO. He won the 2016 running of this event, and also won the 2010 and 2012 Alsace rallies, which were also on tarmac. He dragged the then-privateer M-Sport Fiesta to 2nd here last year...behind Latvala.

    Ogier has brought it home in one piece, now it's just a matter of waiting for the junior classes to finish and get 888 to cough up.

    €077.39
    +€17.50 (profit for an Ogier win)
    ======
    €094.89

    Onto Bahrain, and I think Bottas is overpriced for the win @9/1 on Bet365, so I'll put €2 e/w on him. Mercedes had good form on the soft compound, so I think that'll come into play in their race strategy. On top of that, the safety car has only appeared once in the history of the Bahrain GP, and yes, it was Maldonado's fault. That is not good news for Ferrari, who have worse fuel consumption than Mercedes & Red Bull.

    But wait, there's more! Ricciardo gets to start 4th, unhindered by any grid penalties, and showed great race pace in Australia and in practice. He's 14/1 with 188 to win, with 1/3 odds for the top 2, so I'll stick €1.25 e/w on him.


  • #2


    Ogier has brought it home in one piece, now it's just a matter of waiting for the junior classes to finish and get 888 to cough up.

    €077.39
    +€17.50 (profit for an Ogier win)
    ======
    €094.89

    [...]

    But wait, there's more! Ricciardo gets to start 4th, unhindered by any grid penalties, and showed great race pace in Australia and in practice. He's 14/1 with 188 to win, with 1/3 odds for the top 2, so I'll stick €1.25 e/w on him.

    It looks like Horner's going to be complaining about Renault later.
    €94.89
    -€2.50
    =====
    €92.39


  • #2


    Bottas spares my blushes, but dammit that battle had me on tenterhooks!
    €92.39
    +€4.00 (profit for Bottas placing)
    =====
    €96.39


  • #2


    €5 on Lewis Hamilton to win the Chinese GP @2.0, most bookies are offering that price and I went with Bet365.

    It took engine gremlins and relegation to the back of the grid in 2016 to stop Lewis from claiming victory in every Chinese GP held since the 2014 switch to hybrid power.

    The only worry I have is that the 2nd-softest compound (the Ultra-Soft) is being brought to Shanghai for the first time ever, along with the 5th-softest (the Medium) and the 4th-softest (the Soft), so the shake-up in compounds could throw a spanner in the works.

    Here's Pirelli's preview for the weekend.


  • #2


    €5 on over 15.5 finishers in the Chinese GP @4/6 with Bet365.

    Since 2014, there's only been over 4.5 retirements in one Chinese GP, last year's.

    Also, €4 on Hamilton to take pole @1.85 with Bwin. OK, he was underwhelming in Bahrain, but on the other hand, he's taken 6 poles from the 11 Chinese GPs he's competed in, including 4 from his 5 years with Mercedes.


  • #2


    Lewis could only manage 4th after screwing up his second hotlap in the pole position shootout. :(

    €96.39
    -€4.00
    =====
    €92.39


  • #2


    Lewis could only manage 4th after screwing up his second hotlap in the pole position shootout. :(

    €96.39
    -€4.00
    =====
    €92.39

    I got spoiled by a Sky Sports News bulletin.

    €92.39
    -€5.00 (Lewis doesn't extend Merc's streak)
    +€3.34 (...but at least I got over 15.5 finishers)
    ======
    €90.73


  • #2


    Looking ahead to the weekend, and it's Argentina rather than Azerbaijan that has my attention. Thierry Neuville and Ott Tanak head the betting markets around the 2/1 mark, but my attention is further down the field, namely Latvala (who won the 2014 edition, but hasn't had the best of luck recently) and Evans (3rd in 2015, 2nd in 2017, but has also had a recent bout of bad luck).

    I don't know what to make of the Azerbaijan GP. This is the first time this event has been hosted before the middle of June, so air and track temperatures will be much cooler.


  • #2


    Final picks for Argentina:
    €3 on Elfyn Evans to finish on the podium @6 with Bwin, and another €1 on him to take the win @29, also with Bwin.


  • #2


    My first bet for Baku: €4 on Ocon to score points @2.875 with Sky. I think the lack of mid-/high-speed corners will gloss over Force India's shortcomings and bring them into contention for points this weekend.

    I can't make up my mind at the moment. Merc's issues with tyres put me off siding with either of them. The Red Bulls have that massive 2km straight (the kinks are flat out, they don't really count) to cope with. Kimi's probably going to have his strategy compromised for Seb's sake. I'm thinking of mainly doing some longshot podium/top 6 bets after qualifying.


  • #2


    Final picks for WELL DONE BAKU:
    • €2 e/w on Bottas to win @12/1 (1/5 odds for a podium finish) with BetVictor. He managed to come from the back of the pack last year to pip Stroll to 2nd, if I'm going to pick a long shot to benefit from attrition, he edges it over Danny. My only worry is that Merc get caught out by the safety car.
    • €1 on Alonso to finish top 6 @9/2. Once again, I'm counting on a race of attrition - after all, he's finished 5th in Australia and followed that up with a pair of 7th places.
    • €1 on a SkyBet special of Alonso to score points, Danny Ric to finish in the top 6 and under 16.5 finishers @9/4.
    • €3 on Kevin Magnussen to score points @6/4 with Willy. OK, he starts 15th. But this is Baku, and he managed to finish 7th here last year after starting 12th.


  • #2


    My first bet for Baku: €4 on Ocon to score points @2.875 with Sky. I think the lack of mid-/high-speed corners will gloss over Force India's shortcomings and bring them into contention for points this weekend.

    I can't make up my mind at the moment. Merc's issues with tyres put me off siding with either of them. The Red Bulls have that massive 2km straight (the kinks are flat out, they don't really count) to cope with. Kimi's probably going to have his strategy compromised for Seb's sake. I'm thinking of mainly doing some longshot podium/top 6 bets after qualifying.

    Cheers Kimi.

    €90.73
    -€4.00
    ======
    €86.73

    Also, Evans is about 1m40s off a podium at the moment. :/


  • #2


    Final picks for WELL DONE BAKU:
    • €2 e/w on Bottas to win @12/1 (1/5 odds for a podium finish) with BetVictor. He managed to come from the back of the pack last year to pip Stroll to 2nd, if I'm going to pick a long shot to benefit from attrition, he edges it over Danny. My only worry is that Merc get caught out by the safety car.
    • €1 on Alonso to finish top 6 @9/2. Once again, I'm counting on a race of attrition - after all, he's finished 5th in Australia and followed that up with a pair of 7th places.
    • €1 on a SkyBet special of Alonso to score points, Danny Ric to finish in the top 6 and under 16.5 finishers @9/4.
    • €3 on Kevin Magnussen to score points @6/4 with Willy. OK, he starts 15th. But this is Baku, and he managed to finish 7th here last year after starting 12th.

    What an atrocious ending for the log. The only silver lining is that Leclerc's 6th puts him above Ericsson in the drivers' standings, so the pre-season H2H double is looking good.

    €86.73
    -€9.00
    =====
    €77.73


  • #2


    Final picks for Argentina:
    €3 on Elfyn Evans to finish on the podium @6 with Bwin, and another €1 on him to take the win @29, also with Bwin.

    No luck, he ended up 6th.

    €77.73
    -€4.00
    =====
    €73.73


  • #2


    €4 on the polesitter to win the Spanish GP @2.02 with Bwin. 7 out of the last 10 wins were from pole, including 3 out of the last 4 since the hybrid power units were introduced, with only Hamilton's infamous crash into Rosberg breaking that streak in 2016.


  • #2


    Picks for tomorrow:
    • €1.50 on Hartley to beat the Williamses and Ericsson @4.5, in the Group Betting market on Ladbrokes. The Williamses look horrendous here. OK, Hartley had that big shunt which means he won't know how his car really feels until the lights go out tomorrow. And yes, he has a Honda in the back of it. But he has 7 unused sets of tyres (2 medium, 1 soft - which is apparently the best on race pace - and 4 super-soft), and I feel that can give him an edge in the battle at the back.
    • €3 on Hülkenberg to score points @2.375, also with Lads. OK, he starts from 16th, but Renault showed some great pace in race simulations on Friday. My only worry is that he has only one set of Softs for the race.
    • Dutching €4.01 on a Red Bull podium with William Hill, with €1.86 on Danny Ric @4.33... and €2.15 on Max @3.75, to return €8.06. Red Bull were right up with the Mercs in the 2nd part of qualifying when they were all using softs. A smart strategy (and maybe team orders) should see them leapfrog the Ferraris.


  • #2


    €4 on the polesitter to win the Spanish GP @2.02 with Bwin.
    Picks for tomorrow:
    • €1.50 on Hartley to beat the Williamses and Ericsson @4.5, in the Group Betting market on Ladbrokes.
    • €3 on Hülkenberg to score points @2.375, also with Lads.
    • Dutching €4.01 on a Red Bull podium with William Hill, with €1.86 on Danny Ric @4.33... and €2.15 on Max @3.75, to return €8.06.
    Goddammit Romain, it's as if your spot at Haas isn't precarious enough.

    €73.73
    +€4.08 (Lewis held on)
    +€4.05 (...as did Max)
    - €4.50 (...but so did Stroll, and Hülkenberg got collected in Grosjean's mess)
    =====
    €77.36


  • #2


    Ogier is 5/1 with Betway to win this weekend's Portuguese Rally. IMHO, that is way too much for a guy who's won 5 previous iterations of the event, including 2 of the last 4. He's also won one of the two gravel rallies this season, so I'll chance €3 on him winning this weekend.

    If you fancy a bit of insurance, Bet365 and Paddy offer 4/1 but also an each-way option for 2nd place @1/3 odds.


  • #2


    After crashing but continuing, Ogier is 35 minutes off the lead with only the Power Stage to go. FFS.

    €77.36
    -€3.00
    =====
    €74.36


  • #2


    What happened pope?


  • #2


    Guffy wrote: »
    What happened pope?

    I just didn't like how I was trending towards 0 with this log. About 20 minutes ago I went with Lewis to set the fastest lap @6/1...and now it's drizzling, while Vettel went fastest with a time 1 second faster than his current pace.

    At least my season match bets are doing well.


  • #2


    Pretty much impossible to get an edge betting on Motorsport - the guys that are trading it are genuine experts with everything and more importantly, everyone, at their disposal.


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