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PopePalpatine's Motorsport Betting Log

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Comments

  • #2


    No luck this morning. Strangely, Betway didn't re-open betting on the 2nd race after the end of the 1st one.


  • #2


    Since the Marrakech ePrix isn't for another month, I might as well do a final report for the log.

    Total stakes: €946.79
    ROI: 1.3086%

    Series:|Total stakes:|Profit/Loss:|P/L %:
    F1|€804.69|€23.25|2.89%
    Formula E|€41.22|€80.86|196.17%
    IndyCar|€35.60|-€7.48|-21%
    WRC|€32.00|€41.83|130.73%
    WEC|€12.00|-€12.00|-100.00%
    European Rally Championship|€5.00|-€5.00|-100.00%
    NASCAR|€8.86|€3.08|34.73%
    MotoGP|€25.54|-€25.54|-100.00%


    I think I should have quit after F1 returned from its summer break, that was the start of the decline for my bets. :(


  • #2


    €1 e/w on Nelson Piquet @12/1 (1/4 odds for the top 3) on Betway in the Formula E Santiago ePrix, which starts in just over 10 minutes.

    He'll start 5th, but the two guys ahead of him had accidents in the top 5 shootout in qualifying, I think they might be a bit rattled. Plus, he's the series' inaugural champ, that has to count for something, right?


  • #2


    €1 e/w on Nelson Piquet @12/1 (1/4 odds for the top 3) on Betway in the Formula E Santiago ePrix, which starts in just over 10 minutes.

    He'll start 5th, but the two guys ahead of him had accidents in the top 5 shootout in qualifying, I think they might be a bit rattled. Plus, he's the series' inaugural champ, that has to count for something, right?

    No luck, Nelson threw his chances away with a messed-up lunge that wouldn't look out of place in a race for clones of Pastor Maldonado.

    Still, it beats pissing away €2 on 1st half overs in a ball-achingly boring match in Malta. :rolleyes:

    €112.39
    - €2.00
    ======
    €110.39


  • #2


    €2 e/w on Jari-Matti Latvala @11/2 (1/3 odds for 2nd) to win Rally Sweden with Bet365. Latvala won last year's running of the event ahead of market favourite (and now his teammate at Toyota) Ott Tanak, and also picked up his maiden WRC win in the 2008 rally. Be quick, the betting market closes at 6am when the shakedown starts.


  • #2


    No luck, he finished 7th.

    €110.39
    - €4.00
    ======
    €106.39


  • #2


    €4 on Jean-Eric Vergne to win the Mexico City ePrix @10/3 with SkyBet.

    Vergne leads the drivers' standings in his Renault-powered Techeetah, and finished 2nd behind a dominant di Grassi in last year's Mexico City ePrix. Di Grassi (10/1, B365 & Ladbrokes) has been suffering an awful run of poor reliability, and he also has to serve a 10-place grid penalty for changing an inverter. Sam Bird, another one of the favourites for today @11/2 (B365), also has to pay the same penalty for changing his gearbox.

    I think Edoardo Mortara is a decent dark horse @33/1 (Ladbrokes/B365/Sky, 1/5 odds for a podium finish), so I'll stick €1.50 each way on him. He's adapted wonderfully to Formula E and was 2nd in practice earlier today, and could have won the season opener in Hong Kong if it weren't for a spin in the dying stages of the race.


  • #2


    Well that sucked.

    €106.39
    - €7.00
    ======
    €99.39


  • #2


    €3 on Sebastian Ogier to win Rally Mexico @4/1 with Betsafe.

    In my (very humbled) opinion, his record here speaks for itself. He made some costly mistakes in Sweden and in last year's Rally Mexico, but as the record holder for stage wins (and reigning WRC champion since 2013!) there I still think he's value @4/1.


  • #2


    €1 on Robert Wickens to win the Indycar Grand Prix of St Petersburg @30/1 with Paddy. He's leading the race right now, albeit on lap 42 of 110, and as an extra kicker, Bet365 are hovering around 7/2 at the moment.


  • #2


    €5 on Alexander Rossi @EVENS to win that race with Bet365 to cover.


  • #2


    Two laps to go, two guys collide. Guess who?
    €99.39
    - €6.00
    =====
    €93.39


  • #2


    Here comes Ogier to save the day! It could be worse...like Racing Post's picks worse.

    €093.39
    +€12.00
    ======
    €105.39


  • #2


    The Punta del Este ePrix qualifying groups have been decided with the top 5 going out last, which should be even more of an advantage as the track gets very dusty due to its position right next to a beach. However, no one's offering odds for the race yet, my best guess is that they'll open up at 2pm when this current practice session ends.

    Buemi has to be the favourite IMHO thanks to his previous form here, I'd give him a 20% chance to take the win at the moment.


  • #2


    Buemi's out of the running after hitting the walls, he was 10/1 with Lads before the markets closed at 7pm.


  • #2


    There's an arbing opportunity out there for over/under 16.5 finishers in this weekend's Australian GP - Sky have priced under 16.5 finishers @8/11, while Bwin have priced over 16.5 @15/4!

    I'll have €50 on the former and €18 on the latter, which should return at least €85.50.


  • #2


    There's an arbing opportunity out there for over/under 16.5 finishers in this weekend's Australian GP - Sky have priced under 16.5 finishers @8/11, while Bwin have priced over 16.5 @15/4!

    I'll have €50 on the former and €18 on the latter, which should return at least €85.50.

    Is there a max bet on either of those? Instead of €50 and €18, could you do €50k and €18k? I'd worry after I put one bet on they wouldn't take the other.


  • #2


    Bwin generally limit winnings to €10,000 per bet, so you'd be limited to €2,105.26 for the over 16.5 finishers bet. SkyBet have a different way of limiting stakes, where you're limited to €250k net winnings per day on F1.

    Unfortunately, it's kind of a moot point as Sky have suspended the over/under finishers market at the moment, but Bwin are still offering 31/20 for over 15.5 while Bet365 and Betway offer 4/6 for under 15.5, but at that point you'd need to stake €9.92 (€6 with B365/Betway, €3.92 with Bwin) just to win €10, it's not worth your time.

    I have to say, Verstappen @evens to make the podium is worth a look. Red Bull have looked pretty good in testing, and this year Ferrari and Mercedes won't have the extra boost of burning oil to take them out of reach. There's about a 30% chance of rain during qualifying and the race, so I think that could also bring him into contention.


  • #2


    My first actual risk of the season - €10 on Charles Leclerc & Pierre Gasly to beat their teammates over the season @3.36 with Betway.

    €105.39
    - €50.00 (<16.5 finishers bet)
    - €18.00 (>16.5 finishers bet)
    - €10.00 (teammate H2H double)
    ======
    €027.39 to play with for the rest of the weekend

    Those are value picks IMHO, and I'd much rather tie up a tenner in two H2H bets than €20 on Hamilton to bring home the same amount of winnings.

    Gasly has much more single-seater experience than Hartley to give him the edge in their battle, while Leclerc is probably the hottest young prospect to enter F1 since...well, judging by F2/GP2 title-winning seasons, Vandoorne, but Vandoorne doesn't have a teammate whose sponsors bought out the team.

    Here's a heads-up for those interested in trends - Hamilton is @1.8 with Coral/Lads to take pole this weekend. He's taken pole in Australia every year since 2014, but has only converted that to a win once. In 2014 he retired, he won in 2015, Rosberg fought him off in 2016, and Vettel got the jump on him in 2017.

    Bottas could be one to watch out for, there's a chance he could be better prepared this season. He was drafted in December 2016 to fill in for the suddenly-departed Rosberg, so some commentators have blamed his solid rear gunner status on a lack of experience with Mercedes, having previously driven Williamses which were designed for low drag. However, he didn't fare too well around here during his Williams days, only outqualifying a teammate once - that being the infamous Maldonado - and was 0-3 in qualifying against Felipe Massa.


  • #2


    €4 on Romain Grosjean to score points @1.95 with Betsafe.

    Grosjean hasn't had the best of luck around Melbourne, recording just one points finish in the hybrid era, but hear me out. He was hampered with reliability issues, suffering engine failures in 2014, 2015 and 2017, and that last one stings a bit as he qualified 6th last year, 1.4 seconds up on Magnussen. However, he also grabbed Haas's first ever points by bringing the car home in 6th in their 2016 debut, and they put on a decent performance in testing. TBH it's hard to find value in the points-scoring market, as 13 of the 20 drivers are shorter than evens to bring home the bacon.


  • #2


    Speaking of Betsafe, they're offering 3.70 for that Leclerc/Gasly double I posted.

    They also offer 6.14 odds for that double combined with Raikkonen to beat Alonso, so I'll have €3.39 on that to take my bankroll down to a nice, round €20.


  • #2


    Feck it, I'll follow the trend and throw €6 on Hamilton to take pole, still @1.8 with Lads/Coral.


  • #2


    I've just upped my bet on Hamilton, as a wet qualifying session looks likely on Saturday.

    TBH, I don't know where to look for value besides there. Red Bull looked strong in testing, but then the problem there is picking between Ricciardo and Max to put in a podium combo bet with Lewis, and that's before I factor in Vettel or the differences between the Catalunya Circuit and Albert Park that could throw the Mercs off.


  • #2


    Well, Ricciardo's made my choice easier by picking up a (IMHO bullshit) 3-place grid penalty.

    If qualifying goes ahead in a downpour, I think that given their past performances in those conditions, Ocon and Sainz are great value at the moment to get into the top 10 shootout @2.5 and 2.0 respectively with Bwin. Unfortunately, Oddschecker don't offer comparisons for that market, AFAIK only Betfair Exchange offers that market as well.


  • #2


    Final bets for quali:
    €4 on Sainz to reach Q3 @2.0 with Bwin.
    €3 on Ocon in that same market @2.5 with the same bookie.
    €2 on Max to finish in the top 3 in the third practice session @2.0, again with Bwin.
    €2 on Max & Lewis to qualify on the front row @4.5 with Bwin.
    €1 each on two tricast bets for qualifying of Lewis/Max/Vettel (@13) & Max/Lewis/Vettel (@19) with Sky in the Request-A-Bet section. Bwin offer 3.2 for those three to fill the top 3 in any order.


  • #2


    Feck it, I'll follow the trend and throw €6 on Hamilton to take pole, still @1.8 with Lads/Coral.
    Final bets for quali:
    €4 on Sainz to reach Q3 @2.0 with Bwin.
    €3 on Ocon in that same market @2.5 with the same bookie.
    €2 on Max to finish in the top 3 in the third practice session @2.0, again with Bwin.
    €2 on Max & Lewis to qualify on the front row @4.5 with Bwin.
    €1 each on two tricast bets for qualifying of Lewis/Max/Vettel (@13) & Max/Lewis/Vettel (@19) with Sky in the Request-A-Bet section. Bwin offer 3.2 for those three to fill the top 3 in any order.

    €20.00
    +€4.80 (Lewis took pole)
    +€4.00 (Sainz reached Q3)
    -€3.00 (Ocon didn't)
    -€4.00 (Max couldn't match the Ferraris)
    -€2.00 (...or finish FP3 in the top 3)
    =====
    €19.80

    Lesson learned, don't bet on FP3, especially if you need to sleep while it's on.


  • #2


    Kimi hasn't finished on the podium in Australia during the Hybrid Era. Granted, in 2014 he had a crapbox, and he retired in the next two years.

    On the other hand, Ferrari reportedly had worryingly high fuel consumption in testing, and Australia is one of the more heavy fuel consumption tracks. Red Bull have opted for an unorthodox tyre strategy by using the middle of the three compounds in Q2, rather than the softest like the other teams which made it into Q3, so that adds an extra bit of intrigue to their threat to Kimi's champagne sesh hopes. I'll have €4 on him not to finish on the podium @2.15 with Bwin.

    Speaking of unorthodox strategies, I think it's worth putting €2.50 on Ocon to score points @3.1 with Paddy. Sure, he starts 14th, right ahead of the penalised Bottas, but it's worth a shot considering he scored his first F1 point here last year after starting 13th.

    On top of that, factoring in the possibility of Red Bull pulling off a strategic masterstroke, I'll have €1.50 e/w on Max to win @9/1 (1/5 odds for a podium finish) with Willy.

    One last long shot - the last time (2016) Vettel started third in Australia behind a pole-sitting Hamilton, he ended up leading the 1st lap. He's 9/1 with Willy to do the same tomorrow morning, so I'll have €1 on that. A word of warning - the last race this happened was last year's Japanese GP, and Lewis was able to hang on.

    That leaves €9.30 in the bankroll, so feck it, I'll use it to arb in the Head-To-Head market. Kimi is @3.25 with Lads to beat Seb tomorrow, and Bwin offer 1.6 for the other way around. I'll put €6.27 on Seb with Bwin and €3.03 on Kimi with Lads.


  • #2


    Ugh, what a disaster. Only the arbing paid off, as Haas's wheelguns fired blanks, Kimi kept Danny Ric at bay and off the podium, Seb couldn't pull off an amazing opening lap, and Max ended up stuck behind Alonso in 6th.

    €000.00
    +€86.36 (Only 15 finished)
    +€10.03 (Seb won, I honestly thought he was doomed when Adam Scriven of the Racing Post tipped him given that guy's luck)
    ======
    €096.39

    Looking back, I should have been more gutsy with my arbing, and not catching the race live cost me a chance to take a punt on Vettel to win when the Haases fell on their asses, although chances are the bookies would have suspended their markets when that happened.


  • #2


    €4 on Jari-Matti Latvala to finish on the podium in this weekend's Tour de Corse @4.0 with Betsafe. They also offer 16.0 for him to win, so I'll stick €1 on that.

    888 offer 4.5 for Ogier to win, and as the reigning champion since 2013, he's worth putting €5 on IMHO. He won the 2016 running of this event, and also won the 2010 and 2012 Alsace rallies, which were also on tarmac. He dragged the then-privateer M-Sport Fiesta to 2nd here last year...behind Latvala.


  • #2


    Ogier is 41 seconds in the lead, but Latvala's nearly a minute behind Meeke in 3rd.

    €1 e/w on Bottas in FP3 @12/1 with Bet365 (1/5 odds for the top 3), as this is the session where teams prepare for qualifying, so I expect a fight between Ferrari and Mercedes for the top 4.

    Also, I'm going with €2 on both Ferraris to be in the top 3 @3.3 with Bwin. This is kind of a hedge, and kind of assuming Lewis might back off and prepare a compromised setup to cut through the field.


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