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PopePalpatine's Motorsport Betting Log

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Comments

  • #252
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    PopePalpatine wrote: »
    Lewis could only manage 4th after screwing up his second hotlap in the pole position shootout. :(

    €96.39
    -€4.00
    =====
    €92.39

    I got spoiled by a Sky Sports News bulletin.

    €92.39
    -€5.00 (Lewis doesn't extend Merc's streak)
    +€3.34 (...but at least I got over 15.5 finishers)
    ======
    €90.73


  • #253
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    Looking ahead to the weekend, and it's Argentina rather than Azerbaijan that has my attention. Thierry Neuville and Ott Tanak head the betting markets around the 2/1 mark, but my attention is further down the field, namely Latvala (who won the 2014 edition, but hasn't had the best of luck recently) and Evans (3rd in 2015, 2nd in 2017, but has also had a recent bout of bad luck).

    I don't know what to make of the Azerbaijan GP. This is the first time this event has been hosted before the middle of June, so air and track temperatures will be much cooler.


  • #254
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    Final picks for Argentina:
    €3 on Elfyn Evans to finish on the podium @6 with Bwin, and another €1 on him to take the win @29, also with Bwin.


  • #255
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    My first bet for Baku: €4 on Ocon to score points @2.875 with Sky. I think the lack of mid-/high-speed corners will gloss over Force India's shortcomings and bring them into contention for points this weekend.

    I can't make up my mind at the moment. Merc's issues with tyres put me off siding with either of them. The Red Bulls have that massive 2km straight (the kinks are flat out, they don't really count) to cope with. Kimi's probably going to have his strategy compromised for Seb's sake. I'm thinking of mainly doing some longshot podium/top 6 bets after qualifying.


  • #256
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    Final picks for WELL DONE BAKU:
    • €2 e/w on Bottas to win @12/1 (1/5 odds for a podium finish) with BetVictor. He managed to come from the back of the pack last year to pip Stroll to 2nd, if I'm going to pick a long shot to benefit from attrition, he edges it over Danny. My only worry is that Merc get caught out by the safety car.
    • €1 on Alonso to finish top 6 @9/2. Once again, I'm counting on a race of attrition - after all, he's finished 5th in Australia and followed that up with a pair of 7th places.
    • €1 on a SkyBet special of Alonso to score points, Danny Ric to finish in the top 6 and under 16.5 finishers @9/4.
    • €3 on Kevin Magnussen to score points @6/4 with Willy. OK, he starts 15th. But this is Baku, and he managed to finish 7th here last year after starting 12th.


  • #257
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    PopePalpatine wrote: »
    My first bet for Baku: €4 on Ocon to score points @2.875 with Sky. I think the lack of mid-/high-speed corners will gloss over Force India's shortcomings and bring them into contention for points this weekend.

    I can't make up my mind at the moment. Merc's issues with tyres put me off siding with either of them. The Red Bulls have that massive 2km straight (the kinks are flat out, they don't really count) to cope with. Kimi's probably going to have his strategy compromised for Seb's sake. I'm thinking of mainly doing some longshot podium/top 6 bets after qualifying.

    Cheers Kimi.

    €90.73
    -€4.00
    ======
    €86.73

    Also, Evans is about 1m40s off a podium at the moment. :/


  • #258
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    PopePalpatine wrote: »
    Final picks for WELL DONE BAKU:
    • €2 e/w on Bottas to win @12/1 (1/5 odds for a podium finish) with BetVictor. He managed to come from the back of the pack last year to pip Stroll to 2nd, if I'm going to pick a long shot to benefit from attrition, he edges it over Danny. My only worry is that Merc get caught out by the safety car.
    • €1 on Alonso to finish top 6 @9/2. Once again, I'm counting on a race of attrition - after all, he's finished 5th in Australia and followed that up with a pair of 7th places.
    • €1 on a SkyBet special of Alonso to score points, Danny Ric to finish in the top 6 and under 16.5 finishers @9/4.
    • €3 on Kevin Magnussen to score points @6/4 with Willy. OK, he starts 15th. But this is Baku, and he managed to finish 7th here last year after starting 12th.

    What an atrocious ending for the log. The only silver lining is that Leclerc's 6th puts him above Ericsson in the drivers' standings, so the pre-season H2H double is looking good.

    €86.73
    -€9.00
    =====
    €77.73


  • #259
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    PopePalpatine wrote: »
    Final picks for Argentina:
    €3 on Elfyn Evans to finish on the podium @6 with Bwin, and another €1 on him to take the win @29, also with Bwin.

    No luck, he ended up 6th.

    €77.73
    -€4.00
    =====
    €73.73


  • #260
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    €4 on the polesitter to win the Spanish GP @2.02 with Bwin. 7 out of the last 10 wins were from pole, including 3 out of the last 4 since the hybrid power units were introduced, with only Hamilton's infamous crash into Rosberg breaking that streak in 2016.


  • #261
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    Picks for tomorrow:
    • €1.50 on Hartley to beat the Williamses and Ericsson @4.5, in the Group Betting market on Ladbrokes. The Williamses look horrendous here. OK, Hartley had that big shunt which means he won't know how his car really feels until the lights go out tomorrow. And yes, he has a Honda in the back of it. But he has 7 unused sets of tyres (2 medium, 1 soft - which is apparently the best on race pace - and 4 super-soft), and I feel that can give him an edge in the battle at the back.
    • €3 on Hülkenberg to score points @2.375, also with Lads. OK, he starts from 16th, but Renault showed some great pace in race simulations on Friday. My only worry is that he has only one set of Softs for the race.
    • Dutching €4.01 on a Red Bull podium with William Hill, with €1.86 on Danny Ric @4.33... and €2.15 on Max @3.75, to return €8.06. Red Bull were right up with the Mercs in the 2nd part of qualifying when they were all using softs. A smart strategy (and maybe team orders) should see them leapfrog the Ferraris.


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  • #262
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    PopePalpatine wrote: »
    €4 on the polesitter to win the Spanish GP @2.02 with Bwin.
    PopePalpatine wrote: »
    Picks for tomorrow:
    • €1.50 on Hartley to beat the Williamses and Ericsson @4.5, in the Group Betting market on Ladbrokes.
    • €3 on Hülkenberg to score points @2.375, also with Lads.
    • Dutching €4.01 on a Red Bull podium with William Hill, with €1.86 on Danny Ric @4.33... and €2.15 on Max @3.75, to return €8.06.
    Goddammit Romain, it's as if your spot at Haas isn't precarious enough.

    €73.73
    +€4.08 (Lewis held on)
    +€4.05 (...as did Max)
    - €4.50 (...but so did Stroll, and Hülkenberg got collected in Grosjean's mess)
    =====
    €77.36


  • #263
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    Ogier is 5/1 with Betway to win this weekend's Portuguese Rally. IMHO, that is way too much for a guy who's won 5 previous iterations of the event, including 2 of the last 4. He's also won one of the two gravel rallies this season, so I'll chance €3 on him winning this weekend.

    If you fancy a bit of insurance, Bet365 and Paddy offer 4/1 but also an each-way option for 2nd place @1/3 odds.


  • #264
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    After crashing but continuing, Ogier is 35 minutes off the lead with only the Power Stage to go. FFS.

    €77.36
    -€3.00
    =====
    €74.36


  • #265
    Guffy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,180 ✭✭✭Guffy


    What happened pope?


  • #266
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,971 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    Guffy wrote: »
    What happened pope?

    I just didn't like how I was trending towards 0 with this log. About 20 minutes ago I went with Lewis to set the fastest lap @6/1...and now it's drizzling, while Vettel went fastest with a time 1 second faster than his current pace.

    At least my season match bets are doing well.


  • #267
    callaway92
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,841 ✭✭✭✭callaway92


    Pretty much impossible to get an edge betting on Motorsport - the guys that are trading it are genuine experts with everything and more importantly, everyone, at their disposal.


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