PopePalpatine's Motorsport Betting Log

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

€5 on Vettel to lead the 1st lap @11/4 (Bet365) - he starts alongside Kimi on the front row, he's worth a punt with his record of lightning starts this season.

Also, €2 each on Palmer and Stroll to retire on the 1st lap @15/2 with Sky. Palmer will start in 16th, ahead of Stroll.

Well this went nowhere. :rolleyes:

€192.25
- €5.00
- €2.00
- €2.00
=======
€183.25

PopePalpatine

Hülkenburg retires, Verstappen doesn't.

€183.25
- €5.00
- €6.00
- €7.50 (Ricciardo to finish on the podium)
=======
€164.75
+€22.50 (Ricciardo finished 3rd)
=======
€187.25

PopePalpatine

This is mainly for a bit of fun, I think betting on oval racing is unpredictable, but hold my beer, I'm going in:

€2.50 e/w on Marco Andretti @14/1 (PP)
€2.20 e/w on Simon Pagenaud @16/1 (Sky)
€1.10 e/w on JR Hildebrand @33/1 (William Hill)

1/4 odds for a top 4 finish.

PopePalpatine

Another €1 on Chilton @20/1 with PP, he's leading and fueled to the finish.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

This is mainly for a bit of fun, I think betting on oval racing is unpredictable, but hold my beer, I'm going in:

€2.50 e/w on Marco Andretti @14/1 (PP)
€2.20 e/w on Simon Pagenaud @16/1 (Sky)
€1.10 e/w on JR Hildebrand @33/1 (William Hill)

1/4 odds for a top 4 finish.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Another €1 on Chilton @20/1 with PP, he's leading and fueled to the finish.

Lesson learned. Today's been a disaster. :rolleyes:

€187.25
- €5.00
- €4.40
- €2.20
- €1.00
======
€174.65

PopePalpatine

While I'm thinking about my Canadian GP picks, I've got €5 each-way on Kris Meeke in the Sardinian Rally @5/1 (1/3 odds for 2nd place) with Bet365.

As for my F1 picks, I'm leaning towards a Stroll DNF, a Haas DNF and Bottas each-way for the win.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

While I'm thinking about my Canadian GP picks, I've got €5 each-way on Kris Meeke in the Sardinian Rally @5/1 (1/3 odds for 2nd place) with Bet365.

As for my F1 picks, I'm leaning towards a Stroll DNF, a Haas DNF and Bottas each-way for the win.

€4 each-way on Bottas it is! He's currently 13/2 with William Hill (1/3 odds for finishing 2nd), and he has shortened to 6/1 on SkyBet, so I might as well make my move now. Bottas picked up two consecutive podium finishes for Williams in the last two years, qualified 4th there in 2014 (but finished 7th) and put in a storming performance in a sh*tbox Williams in 2013's wet qualifying session.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

While I'm thinking about my Canadian GP picks, I've got €5 each-way on Kris Meeke in the Sardinian Rally @5/1 (1/3 odds for 2nd place) with Bet365.
As for my F1 picks, I'm leaning towards a Stroll DNF, a Haas DNF and Bottas each-way for the win.

Well, that's €10 down the drain.

€174.65
-€10.00
=====
€164.65

PopePalpatine

€10 on Stroll not to be classified @13/8 with William Hill. Canada is one of the hardest tracks on brakes, and guess what caused Stroll to retire with a handful of laps left in Monaco? That's right, brakes, as he couldn't manage them properly behind the safety car. The safety car has appeared in 80% of Canadian GPs - in fact, the concept even made its F1 debut in the 1973 Canadian GP!

PopePalpatine

My other bets for the weekend (all with 888sport, these odds should also be available with Unibet & 32Red):

• €1 on Perez to finish on the podium @33/1 - I just fancy him to do something brave strategy-wise, like in WELL DONE Baku last year, and he claimed a podium here back in 2012 in a Sauber of all things...granted, that was when Sauber were competitive and didn't have costly court cases with Giedo van der Garde to worry about.
• €1.50 on Bottas to lead a Mercedes 1-2 @14/1.
• €4 on Hamilton to lead a Mercedes 1-2 @5/1.

PopePalpatine

€1 each-way on Rosenqvist @7/1 (1/3 odds for 2nd place) in the Berlin ePrix in a few minutes with Bet365. He was denied pole by a mistake in the final qualifying shootout, and he had decent form on street circuits before coming to Formula E.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

€1 each-way on Rosenqvist @7/1 (1/3 odds for 2nd place) in the Berlin ePrix in a few minutes with Bet365. He was denied pole by a mistake in the final qualifying shootout, and he had decent form on street circuits before coming to Formula E.

Not bad for my first foray into Formula E betting! :pac:

€164.65
-€2.00 (Rosenqvist each way)
+€11.34 (Rosenqvist won)
======
€173.99

PopePalpatine

Here's hoping my beginner's luck continues: €1 each-way on Mat Jackson @7/1 with Bet365 to win the 1st BTCC race of the day at Croft in a couple of minutes, with 1/5 odds for a podium finish.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Here's hoping my beginner's luck continues: €1 each-way on Mat Jackson @7/1 with Bet365 to win the 1st BTCC race of the day at Croft in a couple of minutes, with 1/5 odds for a podium finish.

Eh, a profit's a profit.

€173.99
- €2.00 (Jackson each-way)
+€2.40 (Jackson finished 3rd)
======
€174.39

PopePalpatine

Next up, €1 each-way on Lucas di Grassi @16/1 with Bet365 (1/5 odds for a podium finish) in the second of this weekend's Berlin ePrix. Although he starts 7th, and this track seemed to be difficult to overtake on yesterday, I think he's a value bet if he has a good strategy to help him leapfrog other cars. Be warned though - he's made some big mistakes in traffic before, like in Paris last month.

PopePalpatine

Another BTCC bet: €1 each-way on Andrew Jordan @14/1 (1/5 odds for a podium finish) with Bet365. The RWD cars of Sutton and Turkington ran away from Jackson (in a FWD Ford Focus) in the 1st race, and Jordan is in a BMW, just like Turkington. Once again, this is a value pick, and Jordan will start 6th on the grid for this next race.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Another BTCC bet: €1 each-way on Andrew Jordan @14/1 (1/5 odds for a podium finish) with Bet365. The RWD cars of Sutton and Turkington ran away from Jackson (in a FWD Ford Focus) in the 1st race, and Jordan is in a BMW, just like Turkington. Once again, this is a value pick, and Jordan will start 6th on the grid for this next race.

He finished 5th.

€174.39
- €2.00
=======
€172.39

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Next up, €1 each-way on Lucas di Grassi @16/1 with Bet365 (1/5 odds for a podium finish) in the second of this weekend's Berlin ePrix. Although he starts 7th, and this track seemed to be difficult to overtake on yesterday, I think he's a value bet if he has a good strategy to help him leapfrog other cars. Be warned though - he's made some big mistakes in traffic before, like in Paris last month.

He finished 3rd, giving me the place money.

€172.39
- €2.00
+ €4.20 (calm down, Snoop)
=======
€174.59

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

€10 on Stroll not to be classified @13/8 with William Hill. Canada is one of the hardest tracks on brakes, and guess what caused Stroll to retire with a handful of laps left in Monaco? That's right, brakes, as he couldn't manage them properly behind the safety car. The safety car has appeared in 80% of Canadian GPs - in fact, the concept even made its F1 debut in the 1973 Canadian GP!

Stroll survives, my tenner doesn't.
€174.59
- €10.00
=======
€164.59

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

€4 each-way on Bottas it is! He's currently 13/2 with William Hill (1/3 odds for finishing 2nd), and he has shortened to 6/1 on SkyBet, so I might as well make my move now. Bottas picked up two consecutive podium finishes for Williams in the last two years, qualified 4th there in 2014 (but finished 7th) and put in a storming performance in a sh*tbox Williams in 2013's wet qualifying session.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

My other bets for the weekend (all with 888sport, these odds should also be available with Unibet & 32Red):

• €1 on Perez to finish on the podium @33/1 - I just fancy him to do something brave strategy-wise, like in WELL DONE Baku last year, and he claimed a podium here back in 2012 in a Sauber of all things...granted, that was when Sauber were competitive and didn't have costly court cases with Giedo van der Garde to worry about.
• €1.50 on Bottas to lead a Mercedes 1-2 @14/1.
• €4 on Hamilton to lead a Mercedes 1-2 @5/1.

€164.59
- €8.00 (Bottas each-way)
- €1.00 (Perez gets a podium finish)
- €1.50 (Bottas leads a Merc 1-2)
- €4.00 (Hamilton leads a Merc 1-2)
+€12.67 (Bottas finishes 2nd)
+€24.00 (Hamilton won ahead of Bottas)
======
€186.76

PopePalpatine

The 24 Hours of Le Mans is the weekend, and I'm looking at the LMP2 class for some long-shot value. To the best of my knowledge, only Paddy Power offer bets on that class. Just like the Indy 500, I won't be doing any huge bets, this is really just for interest.

First of all, €2.20 on the #13 Vaillante Rebellion @9/1 with the trio of the inaugural Formula E champion Nelson Piquet Jr, software programmer-turned-racing driver David Heinemeier Hansson and reigning co-champion of the European Le Mans Series' LMP2 class, Mathias Beche.

Next up is €2 on the #25 Manor @10/1, led by the bane of Fernando Alonso's life, Vitaly Petrov.

As for the long shots, 40c e/w on the #29 Racing Team Nederland @50/1 with Jan Lammers (who boasts one of the longest gaps between F1 entries - a whole TEN years between the 1982 French GP and the 1992 Japanese GP), Frits van Eerd (I guess he's a "gentleman driver") and Michael Schumacher's former rear-gunner, Rubens Barrichello, and 35c e/w on the #27 SMP Racing @80/1 with an all-Russian trio, two of whom (Sirotkin & Aleshin) are ranked "Platinum" - the highest possible driver rating in WEC.

PopePalpatine

One last bet of €6.30 on the #7 Toyota (Buemi/Nakajima/Davidson) @15/8 with Paddy.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

One last bet of €6.30 on the #7 Toyota (Buemi/Nakajima/Davidson) @15/8 with Paddy.

Considering the time the #8 spent in the pits replacing a brake disc, I'm writing this off.

€186.76
- €6.30
======
€180.46

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

The 24 Hours of Le Mans is the weekend, and I'm looking at the LMP2 class for some long-shot value. To the best of my knowledge, only Paddy Power offer bets on that class. Just like the Indy 500, I won't be doing any huge bets, this is really just for interest.

First of all, €2.20 on the #13 Vaillante Rebellion @9/1 with the trio of the inaugural Formula E champion Nelson Piquet Jr, software programmer-turned-racing driver David Heinemeier Hansson and reigning co-champion of the European Le Mans Series' LMP2 class, Mathias Beche.

Next up is €2 on the #25 Manor @10/1, led by the bane of Fernando Alonso's life, Vitaly Petrov.

As for the long shots, 40c e/w on the #29 Racing Team Nederland @50/1 with Jan Lammers (who boasts one of the longest gaps between F1 entries - a whole TEN years between the 1982 French GP and the 1992 Japanese GP), Frits van Eerd (I guess he's a "gentleman driver") and Michael Schumacher's former rear-gunner, Rubens Barrichello, and 35c e/w on the #27 SMP Racing @80/1 with an all-Russian trio, two of whom (Sirotkin & Aleshin) are ranked "Platinum" - the highest possible driver rating in WEC.

No beginners' luck this time around. Le Mans is a cruel mistress.

€180.46
-€5.70
======
€174.76

PopePalpatine

First bet for WELL DONE Baku: €8 on Vettel to win the Azerbaijan GP @2/1 with William Hill. I just don't see Hamilton as an odds-on chance here. Granted, there was a Mercedes in the back of Bottas's Williams last year when he set the all-time record for highest speed trap reading in F1 at 378km/h down the 2.2km long pit straight, but this year's Merc has proven harder to set up than the Ferrari.

I'm on the fence at the moment over whether to bet on Lance Stroll to fail to finish (currently 13/8 with Ladbrokes & Coral), perhaps a points finish on home soil might take some pressure off him, but I keep thinking about that narrow stretch of tarmac around WELL DONE Baku's Old City, and whether he can keep it out of the walls for at least 46 laps.

PopePalpatine

I don't understand how Jolyon Palmer is as long as 13/8 (with Bet365) to fail to be classified. OK, he managed to survive Monaco, but given the pressure he's under (with rumours suggesting he could be out of a job before the end of the season) I'll throw a tenner on that.

PopePalpatine

€4 each on Sainz & Ricciardo to beat their teammates in qualifying @13/10 with 888.

Also, a cheeky 10c each-way long shot on Perez to take pole @200/1 with Coral (1/3 odds if he takes 2nd).

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

€4 each on Sainz & Ricciardo to beat their teammates in qualifying @13/10 with 888.

Also, a cheeky 10c each-way long shot on Perez to take pole @200/1 with Coral (1/3 odds if he takes 2nd).

No luck. To make matters worse, Ricciardo crashed out right as I was about to put €5 on Bottas to hold onto pole @7/2. :mad:

€174.76
- €8.20
========
€166.56

EDIT: I've rarely been so glad to see Hamilton take pole! :pac:

PopePalpatine

Some value picks for today in the Fastest Lap market: €4.50 on Bottas @4/1, €1.50 on Max @10/1 (both with 365) and 85c on Ricciardo @18/1 with William Hill.

Finally, €3 on Magnussen to beat the Toro Rossos and Hülkenburg @9/2, and €4.10 on Hülkenburg to do vice-versa @9/4 in Bet365's Group Betting market.

EDIT: I should have checked 888...they have Bottas @9/2 and Max @11/1 in the fastest lap market, it's just not listed on Oddschecker. :mad:

Anyway, I've put another €1 on Bottas to set the fastest lap and a McLaren to retire first @22/1 through #WhatOddsPaddy.

PopePalpatine

One last bet: €2.50 on Vettel to DNF @6/1 with Coral. He's got an old engine in the back of his Ferrari, and that didn't work out so well for Bottas back in Spain.