PopePalpatine's Motorsport Betting Log

PopePalpatine

This weekend marks the start of the 2017 F1 season, and I figured I might as well mark it by trying to make some profit out of it, hoping that the bookies will be the Abu Dhabi/Bahrain/Azerbaijan/Russia to my Bernie Ecclestone. :pac:

To start things off, I've designated a €100 bankroll for this challenge. I don't have a staking strategy apart from aiming for €20 profit off some bets.

Bizarrely enough the best value I found was on a fixed-odds terminal in the Head-to-Head (Race) market: Ocon to beat Vandoorne @5/6, Sainz to beat Stroll @21/20 and Perez to beat Alonso @11/10, and I just threw in €4 to return €31.57. I guess the odds were last updated some time before the pre-season tests.

My reasoning is simple: Honda couldn't get their sh*t together while testing and managed to build an engine which was inherently self-destructive, so McLaren will probably run at nowhere near 100% if they want either car to see the finish line - Bet365 give 1/7 odds that either McLaren retires, so I see the H2H market as way better value. As for Stroll, I can't see a guy who's earned his own Maldonado-esque website lasting over 300km on a street circuit like Melbourne.

Mercedes are planning a power unit upgrade for Australia, so I'm racking my brains over whether there's any value in an each-way bet on Ricciardo, who's generally priced at 10/1, with 1/5 placing terms for the top 3. Red Bull themselves have tried to dampen expectations by claiming that Ferrari are the better challengers to Mercedes right now, but who knows what they've got up their sleeves.

PopePalpatine

I've done a bit more research, and IMHO Raikkonen offers the best value @9/1 with William Hill, who offer 1/5 terms for a top 3 finish. He's had great form around this track, having won the 2007 and 2013 Australian GPs, but also racked up consecutive DNFs here in 2015 & 2016. Ferrari were only denied the win this time last year thanks to a terrible strategy.

Vettel just seems too short for my liking @7/2, especially with the threat of Mercedes ditching the sandbags this weekend. I'll wait until tomorrow morning (after the Friday practice sessions) before pulling the trigger.

Stakes:
Kimi Raikkonen €3 e/w @9/1 (William Hill)

PopePalpatine

One last bet before the lights go green - €5 on Vettel to lead at the end of the first lap @13/5 with Paddy Power. He did the job this time last year with a fantastic start to pass both Mercedes, who had locked out the front row.

PopePalpatine

I backed the wrong Prancing Horse.

Oh well, at least the treble succeeded to give me €16.57 of profit this weekend, leaving my balance at €116.57.

PopePalpatine

There's a chance of rain for this Sunday's Chinese GP, and that means only one thing for me: €15 on Stroll to retire @11/10. Williams didn't get any testing mileage in the wet during pre-season testing thanks to Stroll's crash the day before.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

There's a chance of rain for this Sunday's Chinese GP, and that means only one thing for me: €15 on Stroll to retire @11/10. Williams didn't get any testing mileage in the wet during pre-season testing thanks to Stroll's crash the day before.

Perez punted Stroll off, but a retirement is a retirement. That gives me €16.50 of profit to leave my balance at €133.07.

PopePalpatine

I'm kicking myself for waiting too long before making my picks this weekend. I thought about Ocon to score points (he's done so in the previous two races) but all the value has gone after Friday's practice sessions. Ricciardo has shown decent pace in those sessions, but IMHO Red Bull are firmly rooted in the position of 3rd best team for the time being. So, I'll just put €2 on Ricciardo to finish on the podium @10/3 with William Hill.

PopePalpatine

Another small bet from me for qualifying: €3 on Vettel to take pole @5/2 with William Hill. I think he offers better value than Hamilton.

PopePalpatine

Well that pole bet didn't work out. I'm down to €128.07 as it stands, so my pick today is €10 on no double finish for Haas @9/10 with 888. Brakes have been Haas's Achilles heel since they joined the grid, and Sakhir is pretty hard on the brakes. Last year Esteban Gutierrez only lasted 10 laps before retiring with brake trouble, and Ferrari (their engine supplier) have had power unit issues of their own this weekend.

Ferrari have had good pace on long runs during the practice on Friday night, so I'm going for €4 on Vettel to win @7/2 with William Hill, I just think there's value in there in case Bottas and Hamilton repeat their turn 1 clash from last year. :pac:

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Well that pole bet didn't work out. I'm down to €128.07 as it stands, so my pick today is €10 on no double finish for Haas @9/10 with 888. Brakes have been Haas's Achilles heel since they joined the grid, and Sakhir is pretty hard on the brakes. Last year Esteban Gutierrez only lasted 10 laps before retiring with brake trouble, and Ferrari (their engine supplier) have had power unit issues of their own this weekend.

Ferrari have had good pace on long runs during the practice on Friday night, so I'm going for €4 on Vettel to win @7/2 with William Hill, I just think there's value in there in case Bottas and Hamilton repeat their turn 1 clash from last year. :pac:

Thanks Kevin!
I'm now up to €130.07 after €2 on Bottas to win @5/1 with SkyBet, I'm just covering myself here and I think Hamilton could be in trouble after his pitlane shenanigans with Ricciardo.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Well that pole bet didn't work out. I'm down to €128.07 as it stands, so my pick today is €10 on no double finish for Haas @9/10 with 888. Brakes have been Haas's Achilles heel since they joined the grid, and Sakhir is pretty hard on the brakes. Last year Esteban Gutierrez only lasted 10 laps before retiring with brake trouble, and Ferrari (their engine supplier) have had power unit issues of their own this weekend.

Ferrari have had good pace on long runs during the practice on Friday night, so I'm going for €4 on Vettel to win @7/2 with William Hill, I just think there's value in there in case Bottas and Hamilton repeat their turn 1 clash from last year. :pac:

E133.07 (starting balance)
-E10.00 (at least one Haas to retire)
-E4.00 (Vettel to win)
-E3.00 (Vettel to take pole)
-E2.00 (Bottas to win)
-E3.00 (Ricciardo to finish on the podium)

---

E114.07
+E19.00 (Magnussen's retirement)
+E18.00 (Vettel to win)

---

E148.07

Danke Seb!

PopePalpatine

This is just for a bit of fun, but my bets for the upcoming Alabama Indycar GP are E1.50 on Newgarden @9/1 and E1.00 on Hunter-Reay @12/1 on bet365. They start 7th and 5th respectively, and Hunter-Reay won here twice before.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

This is just for a bit of fun, but my bets for the upcoming Alabama Indycar GP are E1.50 on Newgarden @9/1 and E1.00 on Hunter-Reay @12/1 on bet365. They start 7th and 5th respectively, and Hunter-Reay won here twice before.

E148.07
-E1.50 (Newgarden)
-E1.00 (Hunter-Reay)
=====
E145.57
+E15.00 (Newgarden win)
=====
E160.57

Of all the people to get a puncture, it just had to be Will Power while he was fending off Newgarden. :pac:

PopePalpatine

First bet for this weekend's Russian GP: €3 on Valtteri Bottas to win each-way @13/2 with Bet365. It was 15/2 before the first practice session, and Bottas has a decent record here. He finished 3rd in 2014, had that crash in 2015 with Raikkonen, and finished 4th in 2016.

PopePalpatine

The other bet for today: €10 on a double points finish for Force India @11/8 with William Hill, and Sky also offer those odds. Sochi is a power track, and the Mercedes-powered Force Indias have locked out the 5th row. Lance Stroll, who starts 11th, is probably the big threat to this bet, not only does he also have a Mercedes powering his Williams, but he could do something stupid into the first (proper) turn and take out either Force India.

EDIT: I have €2.63 sitting in my Paddy Power account, and I'm putting that on over 15.5 finishers @5/6. In 2014, there were only 2 mechanical retirements, both from under-funded teams on their last legs, another 2 in 2015 (along with 3 from crashes) and 1 in 2016, with another 3 retiring due to crashes.

PopePalpatine

Covering now with €5 on Vettel @7/2 with BetVictor.

PopePalpatine

€160.57
- €6.00 (Bottas each way)
- €10.00 (double points finish for Force India)
- €2.63 (over 15.5 finishers)
- €5.00 (Vettel to win)
=====
€136.94
+€32.00 (Bottas win)
+€23.75 (double points finish for Force India)
+ €4.81 (over 15.5 finishers)
=====
€195.50

I can't believe all those 4 retirements came in the first 10 laps. :pac:

PopePalpatine

Red Bull have brought a massive update to Barcelona for this weekend's Spanish GP, and prices are starting to tumble for Max Verstappen to finish in the top 3. Stan James still have him at 10/3 as I'm typing, so I'm putting €6 on that.

PopePalpatine

Second bet of the weekend: €6 on Vettel to win @11/4 on William Hill (also available on Unibet/32red/888). Ferrari's long run pace looked strong in the second practice session, as did Haas's, so my last bet of the weekend (unless I want to hedge) will be €11 on Grosjean to score points @5/4, also with William Hill.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Second bet of the weekend: €6 on Vettel to win @11/4 on William Hill (also available on Unibet/32red/888). Ferrari's long run pace looked strong in the second practice session, as did Haas's, so my last bet of the weekend (unless I want to hedge) will be €11 on Grosjean to score points @5/4, also with William Hill.

Kvyat saved my ass by driving into Magnussen and giving him a puncture.

€195.50
-€11.00 (Grosjean to score points)
- €6.00 (Vettel to win)
- €6.00 (Verstappen to finish on the podium)
=======
€173.50
+€24.75 (Grosjean finishing 10th)
=======
€198.25

Onto Monaco next, and at the moment I really can't see past a Hamilton win...and I'm sure the bookies won't either.

PopePalpatine

First bet of the weekend: €7.50 on Ricciardo to finish on the podium with SkyBet. The main threats come from Max and Bottas, but the latter has never scored points in Monaco, although that's mostly due to how ill-equipped Williams cars were for Monaco in recent years.

It's a damn shame you can't do DNF accas, I don't fancy Stroll & Palmer to get to the finish either.

inforfun

Verstappen has yet to finish in Monaco as well.

PopePalpatine

I was thinking of that, that's worth €5 @3/1 with Bet365, along with €6 on Hülkenburg to finish top 6 @9/4 with Sky. He finished 5th here last year.

markc91

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I was thinking of that, that's worth €5 @3/1 with Bet365, along with €6 on Hülkenburg to finish top 6 @9/4 with Sky. He finished 5th here last year.

Anything for qualifying? 888sport have a promotion for a 50% profit boost on main race when you place a tenner on qualifying?

PopePalpatine

markc91 wrote: »

Anything for qualifying? 888sport have a promotion for a 50% profit boost on main race when you place a tenner on qualifying?

Personally I'm leaning towards Hamilton, but I'd say he'd be odds-on after the practice session that's on right now.

markc91

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Personally I'm leaning towards Hamilton, but I'd say he'd be odds-on after the practice session that's on right now.

For fastest lap yeah? He's evens

markc91

markc91 wrote: »

For fastest lap yeah? He's evens

out to 6/4 now for pole worth a go or vettel is 3/4

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Personally I'm leaning towards Hamilton, but I'd say he'd be odds-on after the practice session that's on right now.

Well I got that completely wrong, he's since drifted out to 9/4 for pole with StanJames and BetVictor. In contrast, 888 (and their cousins 32Red & Unibet) are only offering 6/4. Don't assume that they're pricing Vettel well to counteract that - they only offer 3/4 for him to take pole too!

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Well I got that completely wrong, he's since drifted out to 9/4 for pole with StanJames and BetVictor. In contrast, 888 (and their cousins 32Red & Unibet) are only offering 6/4. Don't assume that they're pricing Vettel well to counteract that - they only offer 3/4 for him to take pole too!

IMHO, Hamilton's worth a €6 punt @9/4 with BetVictor to take pole. I think Mercedes can figure something out to get to grips with the tyres - or they could just take the sandbags off. :pac:

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

IMHO, Hamilton's worth a €6 punt @9/4 with BetVictor to take pole. I think Mercedes can figure something out to get to grips with the tyres - or they could just take the sandbags off. :pac:

Well that's €6 down the drain, Hamilton will start 13th with Button's grid penalty taken into account.

€198.25
- €6.00 (Hamilton to take pole)
=====
€192.25

PopePalpatine

€5 on Vettel to lead the 1st lap @11/4 (Bet365) - he starts alongside Kimi on the front row, he's worth a punt with his record of lightning starts this season.

Also, €2 each on Palmer and Stroll to retire on the 1st lap @15/2 with Sky. Palmer will start in 16th, ahead of Stroll.