Property Market 2017

The_Conductor

I understand fully what you mean.
It is being reflected in the market though- where first time buyers as a percentage of purchasers- are in freefall, and landlords have almost, with the exception of institutional investors, abandoned the market.

So- yes, what you're saying *is* being reflected in the market- however, whats happening is non-first-time-buyers are taking up the slack (at the moment anyway)- its not that prices are falling and becomming more affordable for a larger cohort of FTBs.

Non-FTB'ers are being managed- primarily with the insistence on higher deposits- and the changes in the number of exemptions for non-first time buyers. I.e. official policy is to try and get people 'on the property ladder' (regardless of whether they are buying property that will suit their long term needs, or not).

With the government- it really is a case of too many hands spoiling the broth- there are too many different bodies/agencies/Departments/CB rowing in and meddling- and the half baked cake that is resulting- is an insult to everyone, absolutely everyone..........

I am not in favour of a complete laissez faire approach to the market- however- the current situation where you have various bodies and agencies competing and stabbing one another in the back- has to stop.

The joker in the pack in all of this- is factors wholly outside of our control- such as ECB interest rate policy. If/when interest rates start to increase- this will throw the cat among the pigeons. We already have a tacit agreement to call a halt to QE by next September. QE has pumped the equivalent of 2 trillion Euro into the European economy over the past decade- and pushed interest rates to their absurdly low levels. This is acknowledged to have resulted in asset price bubbles (some very obvious ones are currently in the media- such as the frothy bitcoin markets etc- however, even standards such as gold- are up over 10% year on year- and the yields on government bonds- are at historically unprecedented levels).

This is wholly aside from Brexit- and other 'known-unknowns' (as Dan Quayle and/or George Bush put it).

The downsides out there- are staggering- and we are blundering around like fools in the dark- but we don't want the party to end...........

With our levels of personal and public debt- Ireland is almost uniquely going to be impacted by the withdrawal of QE and the 'normalisation' of interest rates (from 2019 onwards). This is alluded to in the Commission/UK statement- which puts a question mark over the 11 billion that the UK potentially have an interest in (in Irish and Ukrainian loans from the EDB) which will come due in future years up to 2032. They are being reclassified as questionable assets (though the UK did add a reassuring sentence that they did not view Irish loans as anything other than top tier loans).

The international institutions are ringing alarm bells- local media are choosing to ignore the international warnings.

Browney7

The_Conductor wrote: »

300k- for small three beds that you couldn't swing a cat in.
Is someone who is capable of accessing a loan capable of paying for one of these- going to want to live in one of them?
I've nothing against D15- or Lucan- or Tallaght (well, the general areas are fine- like anywhere though they have the odd dodgy estate or no-go area)- however, I wouldn't classify any of these as 'desirable' areas (and I live in Lucan)- they are a home- however, they shouldn't command a premium simply by virtue of being D15, or Lucan or where-ever.......

300k- is a lot of money- and is not the sort of money that the average person can access. These areas are all being sold as desirable areas for the average person. The average person- is getting constantly pushed further and further out- and affordability- is constantly constricting. Something, somewhere, has to give. Its all well and good- pointing at supply and suggesting that as its still in constraint, prices will continue to increase. However, affordability is now a bottleneck- that up to perhaps a year ago- was further upstream as a constraint- than supply......... People cannot afford to buy where they are being suggested they should be in a position to buy.

Supply is an issue- certainly- but affordability- is now at least as big if not a bigger concern.

Who really cares though? The situation as it stands suits pretty much everyone except a large portion of people under the age of 35 (give or take). Who cares about long-term strategic planning to avoid a sh1tstorm in five/10 years when there's a probable election in 2018? Give a few fivers a week out to your voting base and you're laughing.

Negative equity accidental landlords can see the exit door in sight on their boom purchases/"investments" that are probably nearing positive equity when you factor in capital repayments.
Landlords property values have doubled since 2012/13. Government can now levy more property tax if they so choose although this might cause a humanitarian crisis for people with valuable houses. Revenue are taking in a fair chunk of income tax from skyrocketing rental income. Banks' arrears black holes are becoming less of a problem. Hell, even existing mortgage holders are able to renegotiate interest rates on better LTVs. Who knows what'll happen when the chickens come home to roost.

Taylor365

I'm off to Galway lads!

https://bidx1.com/auction/property/23616?keyword=&lotnumber=&typeid=0&countyid=14&_v=1&AuctionDate=2017-12-13

The_Conductor

Taylor365 wrote: »

I'm off to Galway lads!

https://bidx1.com/auction/property/23616?keyword=&lotnumber=&typeid=0&countyid=14&_v=1&AuctionDate=2017-12-13

There is so much wrong with that house- yes, its cheap, but its cheap for very good reasons.

LirW

The_Conductor wrote: »

There is so much wrong with that house- yes, its cheap, but its cheap for very good reasons.

Well, if he has the money to counter these problems it's good on him, can probably make this a nice home with some blood, sweat and tears.
I assume, he didn't buy it blind, right? RIIIIGHT?!

The_Conductor

LirW wrote: »

Well, if he has the money to counter these problems it's good on him, can probably make this a nice home with some blood, sweat and tears.
I assume, he didn't buy it blind, right? RIIIIGHT?!

God only knows.
It has a children's school crossing right outside the window- and is next door to the school- you'd never have a moments peace in the place. There are some things money can fix, there are some it can't- such as the location and access to/from the property.
I'd turn it down if you offered it to me gratis- however, obviously it was worth 16k to someone else.

LirW

Unfortunately some people have a desperate need of changing their living situation, like having kids and needing a place to stay. That was the reason why we bought, I couldn't cope living with my in-laws anymore and they are more than lovely people. Some are willing to take huge compromises for their freedom and that on a tiny budget.

We'll never know but let's just hope the person gets happy there, it's hard enough as it is.

Noddy33

Hi All,
Apologies if this is the incorrect thread but just looking for some first time buyer advice.After about 8months of looking hard I have just recently paid my booking deposit on a house and now in process of getting solicitor contracts drawn up. I am in my early 30's and am a single buyer. My mortgage loan is €150,000 and I was fortunate enough to find a property at the right price that meant I didnt have to touch my 'contingency fund'.
The house comes fully furnished with dish washer,beds,washing machine etc. My question is bar any additional furniture etc that  i wish to purchase to give house a more personal feel what other items do I need to consider(ie house insurance etc??) And also what sort of costs would I be looking at for these additional items?
I have included solicitor costs and stamp duty in my budget so they are not oversights. Any other advice for a newly first time buyer?

Taylor365

The_Conductor wrote: »

There is so much wrong with that house- yes, its cheap, but its cheap for very good reasons.

Ah yea. I presume another 30-40k investment to bring it up to living standards.

Alkers

The_Conductor wrote:

There is so much wrong with that house- yes, its cheap, but its cheap for very good reasons.

Not much detail on the add, what's wrong with it. 16k doesn't seem like a bad price?

LirW

One thing that stands out is that there might be issues with the border of the land. The house stands into the footpath. Also it is seriously right next door of a big school, so parking might be an issue because parents are insane when it comes to school parking.
But if it was bought cash, which can be quite likely, a personal loan of 40k can take you quite far when you are prepared to do some DIY.

Henbabani

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/parking-space-rule-scrapped-in-bid-to-speed-up-delivery-of-city-apartments-36416270.html
[font=Georgia, serif]Developers will no longer face the requirement to provide car parking spaces in city centre apartment blocks.[/font]

Bob24

Henbabani wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/parking-space-rule-scrapped-in-bid-to-speed-up-delivery-of-city-apartments-36416270.html
[font=Georgia, serif]Developers will no longer face the requirement to provide car parking spaces in city centre apartment blocks.[/font]

I doubt this is a game changer. Once you have the land you can build an underground car park. The problem is getting the land in this first place, and then the overall construction cost.

Henbabani

Bob24 wrote: »

Henbabani wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/parking-space-rule-scrapped-in-bid-to-speed-up-delivery-of-city-apartments-36416270.html
[font=Georgia, serif]Developers will no longer face the requirement to provide car parking spaces in city centre apartment blocks.[/font]

I doubt this is a game changer. Once you have the land you can build an underground car park. The problem is getting the land in this first place, and then the overall construction cost.

Agree but getting underground cost money(sometimes a lot) and takes time, which means - more money.

s4uv3

Noddy33 wrote: »

Hi All,
Apologies if this is the incorrect thread but just looking for some first time buyer advice.After about 8months of looking hard I have just recently paid my booking deposit on a house and now in process of getting solicitor contracts drawn up. I am in my early 30's and am a single buyer. My mortgage loan is €150,000 and I was fortunate enough to find a property at the right price that meant I didnt have to touch my 'contingency fund'.
The house comes fully furnished with dish washer,beds,washing machine etc. My question is bar any additional furniture etc that  i wish to purchase to give house a more personal feel what other items do I need to consider(ie house insurance etc??) And also what sort of costs would I be looking at for these additional items?
I have included solicitor costs and stamp duty in my budget so they are not oversights. Any other advice for a newly first time buyer?

House insurance and life cover/mortgage projection are both necessary for the mortgage.

At a rough guess, the extras could cost you an extra 1500ish on top of the solicitors fees for things like property registration, land registry search, property tax etc. Our solicitor paid all these but it doubled our bill to them.
If you need a valuation and a survey done that's another few hundred.
Prepare to be paying out all over the place for the next couple of months

seamus

Underground car parks in the city centre can be a big headache, whether it's the cost of putting it together, security, flood protection, etc. A lot of developers would be quite happy to do away with it.

Long overdue too, there's been no need for residential parking spaces in the city centre for two decades. DCC have been putting serious caps on the parking spaces allowable for new commercial developments for years now, hopefully they start going the same way with residential.

LincolnHawk

Yes and a lot of the "residential" parking in the city centre is rented out to people parking for work

The_Conductor

Honestly- I don't imagine the relaxation of the provision on parking requirements will really do anything at all. The Minister is on the record stating that he imagines management companies will provide access to internal storage units for apartments- and is considering making it a requirement in building regulations. Its simply swapping one requirement for another. We all know the perenial issues we have with underground carparking flooding- it happens at least annually in many units (even in large commercial units like the new St. Vincents Private Hospital- it flooded 4 times in the last 18 months).

A game changer would be a relaxation on the rules requiring units to have light on both sides- i.e. allowing the construction of 1 aspect or even no aspect units. Of course units like this wouldn't be of interest to a significant cohort of prospetive owners or tenants- presumably they would have to be significantly discounted to take this into account. Aspect rules- in conjunction with density rules- and ironically given the drive to specify minimum unit sizes- actually increasing the minimums- might make a big difference.

The current minimum sizes in force- have become a target rather than something to avoid- and has been pointed out- its impossible to convert any of them into wheelchair accessible units- as the areas, between passageways and minimum room sizes- quite simply don't fit.

Specifying minimum sizes- risks people seeing them as a target, rather than something to be avoided at all costs. It also means buyers are far more likely to find the accommodation they purchase is not suitable for their needs- than if they were to buy a better sized/better spec'ed unit.

Finally- we are all hearing the shrill commentary from Tom Parlon- and how VAT concessions on new buildings would be a game changer for First-Time-Buyers. I don't buy that argument- the first time buyers grant of yore- and the current tax rebate- were supposed to be game changers. They simply incremented the concession onto the price of units- often overnight- we've seen it happen several times over the last 25 years. If there are concessions- they have to apply in a manner that encourages building- without bumping up costs for buyers- and does so in a manner that explicitly encourages different resident types- family friendly apartments, singleton apartments, student accommodation, etc etc

Finally- a central plank that is also missing at the moment- is buy-in from the various local authorities. The manner in which planning permission for new student accommodation is verbotten by Dublin City Council- is scandalous. Height restrictions- are scandalous. Aspect rules- are not working. Densities- far higher densities in central locations (and possibly underground residential dwellings- there is no reason you couldn't go down a few levels in high demand locations)- rules have to be relaxed. Room sizes- the current rules- have turned many homes into miserable miserly affairs- with tiny rooms you can't swing a cat in. We need bigger rooms- that can be repurposed as people's circumstances change.

Eoghan Murphy- is young- and inherited a pretty impossible portfolio from Simon Coveney- but is making the most of what has landed on his plate. It behoves him to bring his civil servants and the local authorities together- and to come up with long term sustainable roadmaps for the various sectors of the market.

Idbatterim

Excellent post above. I'm not going to quote it as it's quite long. Totally agree about the aspect rule. I am constantly bringing that up. David erlichhead of ires reit, has spoken how inefficient it is to build dual aspect. Talking about reducing sizes seeks outrageous to me, when there is unlimited height above! The height and dual aspect requirements in my opinion, aren't even up for discussion and if they aren't changed,

Agreed about the bat reduction etc, they will just pocket it. I said over a year ago, I hope the central bank don't allow increased borrowing, that would simply let the snakes off the hook. They now have to address building costs. Of course one of the other big issues is how much government cream off the cost of a new build.

Hike lpt and this could drop stamp duty etc and also cut the other government related fees related to building, that must've paid at time of purchase. Instead it would be spread over lifetime of the property ...

I really wonder about the efficiency of one beds in a way. Also many people don't like them Due to lack of flexibility. You could say apartments have to be two bedroom ie doubling bed space, floor space increase would only be 15-20% increase though. Bedrooms should be roughly 10 sq m minimum in my opinion.

The one standard I would be massively increasing is spud proofing in apartments. No pumps!

Say you have a 3 or 4 bed family apartment. I really think you need a seperate living room, away from the kitchen / living / dining space of current apartments...

There is also a massive demand for studios!

Samuel T. Cogley

Idbatterim wrote: »

The one standard I would be massively increasing is spud proofing in apartments. No pumps!

Spud proofing eh? Seems a very Irish issue to be sure. :pac:

Topgear on Dave

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Spud proofing eh? Seems a very Irish issue to be sure. :pac:

I wouldnt be at all surprised if this was Dublin City Council at it again :pac:

They have their priorities right -

Fliying the Palestinian flag

• Fighting with Geldof

Spudproofing apartments