Property Market 2017

The Student

AsianDub wrote: »

What will happen if Central Bank relaxes either or both rules?

More houses released from the second hand market due to second time buyers only needing 10%? But this will also being more people into the market?

Relaxation of income multiple would surely drive up prices too?

Unless supply increases all that is happening is people are moving from one property to another. Relaxation of income rules can only increase houses so far. Unless wages go up the multiple of incomes will only impact on prices. The bank of Dad and Mam is drying up. Although there still appears to be still some cash buyers but only outside Dublin.

AsianDub

The Student wrote: »

Unless supply increases all that is happening is people are moving from one property to another. Relaxation of income rules can only increase houses so far. Unless wages go up the multiple of incomes will only impact on prices. The bank of Dad and Mam is drying up. Although there still appears to be still some cash buyers but only outside Dublin.

Am seeing some cash buyers in Dublin. Either bank of mam and dad or downsizers.

Bob24

AsianDub wrote: »

Am seeing some cash buyers in Dublin. Either bank of mam and dad or downsizers.

Also people retiring and investing part of their pension in a property.

The Student

Bob24 wrote: »

Also people retiring and investing part of their pension in a property.

Maybe so although investing in property now is very difficult given the govts intervention in the market. In terms of downsizers all that is happening is moving from one house to another. Higher value houses dont seem to be moving and more people are competing for lower end properties as thats all the can afford.

Bob24

The Student wrote: »

Maybe so although investing in property now is very difficult given the govts intervention in the market.

Oh yeah I didn't say I thought it was necessarily the wisest thing to do with a lump sum. Having said that I guess it makes people feel safer to own something tangible and if you go to apartment viewings in desirable areas you'll definitely come across this type of buyers.

The Student

Bob24 wrote: »

Oh yeah I didn't say I thought it was necessarily the wisest thing to do with a lump sum. Having said that I guess it makes people feel safer to own something tangible and if you go to apartment viewings in desirable areas you'll definitely come across this type of buyers.

The budget should make interesting reading.

myshirt

When is the next Central Bank review of prudential rules for mortgages due for release?

The_Conductor

myshirt wrote: »

When is the next Central Bank review of prudential rules for mortgages due for release?

Last year the review issued on the 23rd Nov- concensus is they'll be earlier this year- how early, I don't know. The review itself was completed 7-8 weeks ago, apparently.

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We put an apartment on the market in Swords at what we thought was the upper price we could hope to get and already 3 offers of more than 10% over asking price. All three from owner occupiers according to the ea. He says investors might be along later too, but we'll see.
There are other offers at or below asking but ea says they are messers (his words).

We were advised to hold off until the new year by several people who are doing just that, but decided to get it over and done with and let it build I'd it was going to build.
The market seems to be still bouyant.
Anyone wouldn't be closing til the new year anyway at this stage so it's probably the same as leaving it til the new year.
I'll just leave it to the ea. He seems to know what he is doing.
Maybe the budget will change things again too for better or worse.

flashforward

The_Conductor wrote: »

Last year the review issued on the 23rd Nov- concensus is they'll be earlier this year- how early, I don't know. The review itself was completed 7-8 weeks ago, apparently.

Are the findings of this review leaked Early?
As in do we know now that the LTI rules are not changing?

I seriously hope they are not..

Merrion stockbrokers are suggesting the the govt should consider punitive measures for cash wielding property investors
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/government-should-consider-penalising-property-investors-1.3240930

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cisk wrote: »

Merrion stockbrokers are suggesting the the govt should consider punitive measures for cash wielding property investors
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/government-should-consider-penalising-property-investors-1.3240930

Like the 9% stamp duty that worked out so well.

Graham

cisk wrote: »

Merrion stockbrokers are suggesting the the govt should consider punitive measures for cash wielding property investors
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/government-should-consider-penalising-property-investors-1.3240930

Not that they would have a vested interest in discouraging non-stock related investments

flashforward

cisk wrote: »

Merrion stockbrokers are suggesting the the govt should consider punitive measures for cash wielding property investors
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/government-should-consider-penalising-property-investors-1.3240930

Seems like a no-brainer to me. Stamp duty up to 10% for investment or non owner occupied properties would level the playing field....

Graham

flashforward wrote: »

Seems like a no-brainer to me. Stamp duty up to 10% for investment or non owner occupied properties would level the playing field....

Unless you're a tenant.

Thargor

“Our GDP [gross domestic product] numbers may point to a rich developed country, but you wouldn’t think it judging by the number of people sleeping rough on the streets in our major cities,” Merrion economist Alan McQuaid said.

It would make yo nervous about heeding their analysis when the first thing they say makes them sound economically illiterate.

rsynnott

flashforward wrote: »

Seems like a no-brainer to me. Stamp duty up to 10% for investment or non owner occupied properties would level the playing field....

The UK does a less extreme version of this; 3% extra on second homes. Some have credited it for calming the property market there recently, though, obviously, with Brexit and so on there are all sorts of factors.

flashforward

Graham wrote: »

Unless you're a tenant.

Not so sure...

Did I read before that there are a huge number of properties vacant in Dublin, held by investors, thus creating a shortage, increasing demand and driving prices up (both for property and rent).

10% stamp duty would instantly turn investors away, prices would drop, investors would be forced to sell or else start releasing property for rental in order to get something on their investment.

End result - house prices stagnate or drop, FTB's now become the majority of the purchasers, meaning their rented accommodation becomes available, the investors are pushed now to become landlords or else sell the property as their money making scheme has backfired. More properties for sale/ more rooms for rent.

What am I missing?? Seems to easy

Bob24

Graham wrote: »

Unless you're a tenant.

Depends. If you are a tenant who is looking at buying a property it could be good for you. Yes it would tend to increase the cost of renting which would make it harder to save, but on the other hand it would make it cheaper to become an owner occupier hence require less savings.

Not saying the idea is necessarily good ... but it's not black or white for tenants.

LiamoSail

flashforward wrote: »

Seems like a no-brainer to me. Stamp duty up to 10% for investment or non owner occupied properties would level the playing field....

We've a severe rental shortage and people want to discourage those wanting to provide rental accommodation while making it less attractive for developers to build?

Seems counterproductive

rsynnott

flashforward wrote: »

Not so sure...

Did I read before that there are a huge number of properties vacant in Dublin, held by investors, thus creating a shortage, increasing demand and driving prices up (both for property and rent).

10% stamp duty would instantly turn investors away, prices would drop, investors would be forced to sell or else start releasing property for rental in order to get something on their investment.

End result - house prices stagnate or drop, FTB's now become the majority of the purchasers, meaning their rented accommodation becomes available, the investors are pushed now to become landlords or else sell the property as their money making scheme has backfired. More properties for sale/ more rooms for rent.

What am I missing?? Seems to easy

The number of truly vacant properties is probably overreported, at least in Dublin. If you just want to get vacant properties on the market, a punitive tax on vacant properties would do it much more directly than a new stamp rate, but I suspect it wouldn’t actually yield as many properties as people think it would.

Airbnb would be another obvious target; really, at this point, just enforce the planning rules and that’ll free up a bit of property (and further increase the hotel room crisis, but compared to the housing crisis, really, who cares about that...)

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LiamoSail wrote: »

We've a severe rental shortage and people want to discourage those wanting to provide rental accommodation while making it less attractive for developers to build?

Seems counterproductive

As if they haven't been discouraged enough already.

theboringfox

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm not so sure about a sustainable rate of increase of 2%.
Fact of the matter is- for most people- they're not getting a 2% payrise per annum. Certain sectors are doing very well for themselves- but its not across the board by any means. If South Dublin- which has done better economically than pretty much anywhere else- is falling- the writing is on the wall...........

I was reading this today and in it they attribute house price growth in part to household incomes growing by 2-3% p.a. Economists often wrong but just interesting as you noted concept of 2% inflation not sustainable.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/1002/908979-myhomeie-house-price-figures/

Zenify

theboringfox wrote: »

I was reading this today and in it they attribute house price growth in part to household incomes growing by 2-3% p.a. Economists often wrong but just interesting as you noted concept of 2% inflation not sustainable.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/1002/908979-myhomeie-house-price-figures/

I never listen to anything Davy has to say about property. they have a vested interested in prices rising. Every time I hear them they are trying to cause panic in the market.


"Davy Real Estate is one of the largest real estate investors in Ireland and has acquired over €468m since July 2012."

just Google Davy and property

theboringfox

Zenify wrote: »

I never listen to anything Davy has to say about property. they have a vested interested in prices rising. Every time I hear them they are trying to cause panic in the market.


"Davy Real Estate is one of the largest real estate investors in Ireland and has acquired over €468m since July 2012."

just Google Davy and property

Fair enough.

Henbabani

in the last few weeks(2-3) the number of rent properties increase by more than 10% and no one say nothing.
the increase was from around 2900 to 3,248 today.
i don't say it's a lot of properties but it's still an increase that we should pay attention, something is happend in the rent market and hope that government movements will improve this situtaion even more.

AlmightyCushion

Henbabani wrote: »

in the last few weeks(2-3) the number of rent properties increase by more than 10% and no one say nothing.
the increase was from around 2900 to 3,248 today.
i don't say it's a lot of properties but it's still an increase that we should pay attention, something is happend in the rent market and hope that government movements will improve this situtaion even more.

It's too short a time frame to really tell anything, plus you should really be comparing it to this time last year to account for seasonal variations. While it might be up 10% in the last 3 weeks it could be up or down a lot more year on year.

The_Conductor

Henbabani wrote: »

in the last few weeks(2-3) the number of rent properties increase by more than 10% and no one say nothing.
the increase was from around 2900 to 3,248 today.
i don't say it's a lot of properties but it's still an increase that we should pay attention, something is happend in the rent market and hope that government movements will improve this situtaion even more.

Have a look at the breakdown though- the increase in supply is almost exclusively in the luxury end of the market. Some of the guys in DAFT were discussing it- and Ronan Lyons will probably be bringing a statement out shortly.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

The Student

The_Conductor wrote: »

Have a look at the breakdown though- the increase in supply is almost exclusively in the luxury end of the market. Some of the guys in DAFT were discussing it- and Ronan Lyons will probably be bringing a statement out shortly.

I don't see this ending well at all. Developers will continue to develop at the top end of the market. The lower end will eventually be catered for but I suspect you will see a return to Anti Social blackspots (Tallaght, Ballymun etc).

I am from Tallaght so have seen same first hand.