Property Market 2017

Henbabani

KellyXX wrote: »

Henbabani wrote: »

actually i don't think there's any conspiracy, just interesting to see if what i saw happening on daft reflected in the report for october/november.

What happened on daft?

a lot more 1-2 bedroom(rent) apartments available for longer periods, even saw few ads decreased the price.

KellyXX

Henbabani wrote: »

a lot more 1-2 bedroom(rent) apartments available for longer periods, even saw few ads decreased the price.

We were looking around for the last month and didn't see too many 1 beds anyway. There were more 2 beds than.1 beds alright. But all were very high rent. Some even unfurnished which I think was a great idea.

Henbabani

KellyXX wrote: »

Henbabani wrote: »

a lot more 1-2 bedroom(rent) apartments available for longer periods, even saw few ads decreased the price.

We were looking around for the last month and didn't see too many 1 beds anyway.  There were more 2 beds than.1 beds alright.  But all were very high rent.  Some even unfurnished which I think was a great idea.

i guess it depends on the area you look at.

The_Conductor

KellyXX wrote: »

We were looking around for the last month and didn't see too many 1 beds anyway. There were more 2 beds than.1 beds alright. But all were very high rent. Some even unfurnished which I think was a great idea.

Noticed this- significant numbers of unfurnished units finally becoming available- which I think is a step in the right direction for a significant cohort of both tenants and landlords.

spaceHopper

Henbabani wrote: »

a lot more 1-2 bedroom(rent) apartments available for longer periods, even saw few ads decreased the price.

I've my tinfoil hat on, prices in the UK are dropping, prices here have gone to high and affordability is down, together with high rents affecting savings power for a deposit.

I think prices will start to fall, think about it houses don't have a new model they are mostly a second hand commodity why do they jump 25% in a couple of years. I look at shankill some very good houses in good estates aren't selling.

Graham

spaceHopper wrote: »

think about it houses don't have a new model they are mostly a second hand commodity why do they jump 25% in a couple of years.

Because demand outstrips supply.

There's nothing to suggest that's going to change in the short term.

Cuddlesworth

spaceHopper wrote: »

I think prices will start to fall, think about it houses don't have a new model they are mostly a second hand commodity why do they jump 25% in a couple of years. I look at shankill some very good houses in good estates aren't selling.

I'm in the same market and I can tell you the houses that are not selling are very overpriced in comparison to the houses that do sell based on size/type/finish/features.

mloc123

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

I'm in the same market and I can tell you the houses that are not selling are very overpriced in comparison to the houses that do sell based on size/type/finish/features.

Plenty of houses in the area we were looking that are up for 6 months or more... they are either seriously overpriced or the owners really aren't looking to sell. After a house is up for 3-4 months people write them off without even viewing IMO.. as they assume there is some major flaw.

Everything priced correctly is sale agreed within a month.

Ush1

cnocbui wrote: »

A house on an exposed hillside with lovely views.

A passive rated house should have no need for heating, hence no cost, hence the difference.

I'm pretty sure most still have heating.

cnocbui

Ush1 wrote: »

I'm pretty sure most still have heating.

Not much, as in an order of magnitude less. A 150 ㎡ passive house would cost €360 to heat for a year using daytime electricity at €0.16 per Kwh. That is for a building compliant with the German Passivhaus standard. You could easily heat such a house for free, more likely at a profit, using a small crypto miner or the built in heat pump most such houses employ.

cnocbui

spaceHopper wrote: »

I've my tinfoil hat on, prices in the UK are dropping, prices here have gone to high and affordability is down, together with high rents affecting savings power for a deposit.

I think prices will start to fall, think about it houses don't have a new model they are mostly a second hand commodity why do they jump 25% in a couple of years. I look at shankill some very good houses in good estates aren't selling.

House prices in the UK are only falling because of Brexit. The UK, particularly London had previously been attracting significant levels of overseas investors, which was a principal driver of price increases. Since the UK committed Hara-Kiri, the pound has fallen dramatically and all those foreign investors have had their fingers well and truly burnt as the value of their 'investments' has fallen. Without the foreign demand, the property market has normalised, no doubt some foreign investors may well have put their investments on the market in anticipation of further falls in the £ ahead.

I think there is scant chance of property prices falling unless demand abates considerably or some miracle occurs to bring building costs down.

Henbabani

cnocbui wrote: »

spaceHopper wrote: »

I've my tinfoil hat on, prices in the UK are dropping, prices here have gone to high and affordability is down, together with high rents affecting savings power for a deposit.

I think prices will start to fall, think about it houses don't have a new model they are mostly a second hand commodity why do they jump 25% in a couple of years. I look at shankill some very good houses in good estates aren't selling.

House prices in the UK are only falling because of Brexit.  The UK, particularly London had previously been attracting significant levels of overseas investors, which was a principal driver of price increases.  Since the UK committed Hara-Kiri, the pound has fallen dramatically and all those foreign investors have had their fingers well and truly burnt as the value of their 'investments' has fallen.  Without the foreign demand, the property market has normalised, no doubt some foreign investors may well have put their investments on the market in anticipation of further falls in the £ ahead.

I think there is scant chance of property prices falling unless demand abates considerably or some miracle occurs to bring building costs down.

agree, in the short term it will miracle if the prices will fall.
But, they can still moderate at 3-4% per year level which is still good if you looking 2-3 years backwards.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Henbabani wrote: »

agree, in the short term it will miracle if the prices will fall.
But, they can still moderate at 3-4% per year level which is still good if you looking 2-3 years backwards.

The current esri prediction was + 20% over 3 years based on a high growth rate. With brexit looking a bit touch and go I don't see a high growth rate in Ireland in the near future. I think 4-5 % per year is realistic, assuming the central bank or the government don't so something insane.

Henbabani

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Henbabani wrote: »

agree, in the short term it will miracle if the prices will fall.
But, they can still moderate at 3-4% per year level which is still good if you looking 2-3 years backwards.

The current esri prediction was + 20% over 3 years based on a high growth rate. With brexit looking a bit touch and go I don't see a high growth rate in Ireland in the near future. I think 4-5 % per year is realistic, assuming the central bank or the government don't so something insane.

yeah 4-5% is realistic.
By the way the cso publish the october index - 12.1% year to year increase.
down from 12.8% in september.
probably this year will end on 10-10.5% increase and far away from some of the predicters of 13-15%

The Student

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

The current esri prediction was + 20% over 3 years based on a high growth rate. With brexit looking a bit touch and go I don't see a high growth rate in Ireland in the near future. I think 4-5 % per year is realistic, assuming the central bank or the government don't so something insane.

Would have to agree with this. We will see moderate growth in house prices. Second hand house prices will not decrease as people will see what properties have sold for via the Property Price Register and will hold out to match these figs. Interestingly I would expect certain areas where no social housing exists (previously owned council property sold off etc) will see increases higher than those with some council properties purely because of the stigma attached to social housing.

New builds will sell for higher than their secondhand counterparts purely because of higher building regs etc. It will be interesting to see how or if developers try to get out of the social housing obligations again.

Unfortunately I don't think the State have finished meddling in the property market. Unless they build a significant number of social housing/affordable housing. Personally I think the State wants out of providing social housing altogether.

Ush1

cnocbui wrote: »

Not much, as in an order of magnitude less. A 150 ㎡ passive house would cost €360 to heat for a year using daytime electricity at €0.16 per Kwh. That is for a building compliant with the German Passivhaus standard. You could easily heat such a house for free, more likely at a profit, using a small crypto miner or the built in heat pump most such houses employ.

How is running a heat pump free or going to generate profit? Heat has to come from somewhere. You still have heating is the point.

The_Conductor

Henbabani wrote: »

yeah 4-5% is realistic.
By the way the cso publish the october index - 12.1% year to year increase.
down from 12.8% in september.
probably this year will end on 10-10.5% increase and far away from some of the predicters of 13-15%

The massive thing I'm taking from the October is the reinforcement of the decoupling of Dublin from the rest of the country- and the increasing moderation being evident in Dublin prices.

3,906 units were sold in October- a reasonable enough volume- however, the number of second hand sales seems to be accelerating again (3,250 second hand sales, 656 new builds).

Also- the damn peak property commentary- Dublin is still 25% below its peak, the rest of the country- 30%...........

cnocbui

Ush1 wrote: »

How is running a heat pump free or going to generate profit? Heat has to come from somewhere. You still have heating is the point.

Badly worded - the heat pump will cost money to run - €360 or so, a crypto miner should generate heat for free or return a profit.

You still have heating but it is minimal, you certainly wouldn't need a wood burning stove or central heating. wouldn't surprise me if my estimate was way over as I haven't factored for heat input from activities like cooking.

LincolnHawk

Spin the passive house stuff off to a separate thread

Thargor

10%+ price increases in Dublin every year or even 7/8/9% at current prices are more than a lot of people house hunting at the minute earn in a year after tax and definitely more than they can save, wages are still stagnant.

Taylor365

How out of touch are prices in relation to rents?

Seems like the last while, the market is leaning towards buy and hold or filling a house/apartment illegally with as many bodies as possible. Houses with 10-12 bodies, 2 per room with only the kitchen sharing type of stuff.


Outside of that, average yield looks to be down to around 4-6%. Then after taxes and expense, 0% nada. :pac:

handlemaster

https://m.myhome.ie/residential/dublin-15/property-for-sale?maxprice=300000&minbeds=3&page=1&sortOrder=most recent

Still lots of three beds below 300k in dublin 15. No need to cry about property prices in dublin

LirW

Personally wouldn't be too keen on Tyrellstown, there are some badly built houses right in the flight path of Dublin airport. Viewed a few there and never came back after I could hear a plane taking off when all windows were closed. It's a fairly depressing place.

G.G.Smiley

LirW wrote: »

Personally wouldn't be too keen on Tyrellstown, there are some badly built houses right in the flight path of Dublin airport. Viewed a few there and never came back after I could hear a plane taking off when all windows were closed. It's a fairly depressing place.

Not to mention the escalating gang activity which is censored from discussion on most forms of media.

scouserstation

G.G.Smiley wrote: »

Not to mention the escalating gang activity which is censored from discussion on most forms of media.

I think the problems with gang activity have been vastly over exaggerated, in fact i would class this neighbourhood as one of the quieter areas of Dublin 15 when compared to places like Mulhuddart, Hartstown, Corduff and parts of Clonsilla where crime rates have been historically consistent

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

https://m.myhome.ie/residential/dublin-15/property-for-sale?maxprice=300000&minbeds=3&page=1&sortOrder=most recent

Still lots of three beds below 300k in dublin 15. No need to cry about property prices in dublin

300k- for small three beds that you couldn't swing a cat in.
Is someone who is capable of accessing a loan capable of paying for one of these- going to want to live in one of them?
I've nothing against D15- or Lucan- or Tallaght (well, the general areas are fine- like anywhere though they have the odd dodgy estate or no-go area)- however, I wouldn't classify any of these as 'desirable' areas (and I live in Lucan)- they are a home- however, they shouldn't command a premium simply by virtue of being D15, or Lucan or where-ever.......

300k- is a lot of money- and is not the sort of money that the average person can access. These areas are all being sold as desirable areas for the average person. The average person- is getting constantly pushed further and further out- and affordability- is constantly constricting. Something, somewhere, has to give. Its all well and good- pointing at supply and suggesting that as its still in constraint, prices will continue to increase. However, affordability is now a bottleneck- that up to perhaps a year ago- was further upstream as a constraint- than supply......... People cannot afford to buy where they are being suggested they should be in a position to buy.

Supply is an issue- certainly- but affordability- is now at least as big if not a bigger concern.

Cyrus

The_Conductor wrote: »

300k- for small three beds that you couldn't swing a cat in.
Is someone who is capable of accessing a loan capable of paying for one of these- going to want to live in one of them?
I've nothing against D15- or Lucan- or Tallaght (well, the general areas are fine- like anywhere though they have the odd dodgy estate or no-go area)- however, I wouldn't classify any of these as 'desirable' areas (and I live in Lucan)- they are a home- however, they shouldn't command a premium simply by virtue of being D15, or Lucan or where-ever.......

300k- is a lot of money- and is not the sort of money that the average person can access. These areas are all being sold as desirable areas for the average person. The average person- is getting constantly pushed further and further out- and affordability- is constantly constricting. Something, somewhere, has to give. Its all well and good- pointing at supply and suggesting that as its still in constraint, prices will continue to increase. However, affordability is now a bottleneck- that up to perhaps a year ago- was further upstream as a constraint- than supply......... People cannot afford to buy where they are being suggested they should be in a position to buy.

Supply is an issue- certainly- but affordability- is now at least as big if not a bigger concern.

if affordability is the issue then by its own definition it will correct itself, if people cant afford the properties, they wont be bought, if they arent bought the prices will drop.

i don't think its an issue yet

The_Conductor

Cyrus wrote: »

if affordability is the issue then by its own definition it will correct itself, if people cant afford the properties, they wont be bought, if they arent bought the prices will drop.

i don't think its an issue yet

Its not just affordability- though I would argue that the importance of affordability is leapfrogging the other issues in the supply chain.

At present- the length of time it takes to sell houses- is lengthening- we have commented on it (in relation to new developments) in this forum- and the latest DAFT report is saying the same thing about second hand properties.

We are seeing similar in the rental market.

Extrapolating shows that much of this- is happening in the most expensive parts of the market- however, the sheer volume involved- suggests its more widespread (though the CSO report suggests its a Dublin phenomenon that hasn't spread to the rest of the country (yet).

The point I, and others, are making- is while it is indisputable that we have supply side issues- sheer affordability issues- are rapidly trumping those issues (as per the lengthening time it takes to either sell or let a property). No one in their right mind can dispute that we need to vastly increase supply- however- if we can't shift the current limited supply in a fair and reasonable manner- then, it is too expensive for the markets at which it is being targetted.

At present- we are on the cusp of price falls in both the rental and resale markets- though this is not reflected in the new property market (thus far). This is where we now are. However- its market is not homogenous, its fragmented all over the place- and even looking purely at a Dublin versus the rest of the country profile- is hiding a myriad of local trends (such as the stalling in DLR that the media don't seem to have picked up on).

There is of course going to be an element of schadenfreude- when its the more expensive areas that are grinding to a halt- ahead of areas further out- however- its a trend that radiates outward- and is already apparent in the lesser affluent areas- and deepening..........

I'm seeing far more downsides to the overall market- than I am upsides- wholly ignoring the supplyside issues.

Cyrus

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its not just affordability- though I would argue that the importance of affordability is leapfrogging the other issues in the supply chain.

At present- the length of time it takes to sell houses- is lengthening- we have commented on it (in relation to new developments) in this forum- and the latest DAFT report is saying the same thing about second hand properties.

We are seeing similar in the rental market.

Extrapolating shows that much of this- is happening in the most expensive parts of the market- however, the sheer volume involved- suggests its more widespread (though the CSO report suggests its a Dublin phenomenon that hasn't spread to the rest of the country (yet).

The point I, and others, are making- is while it is indisputable that we have supply side issues- sheer affordability issues- are rapidly trumping those issues (as per the lengthening time it takes to either sell or let a property). No one in their right mind can dispute that we need to vastly increase supply- however- if we can't shift the current limited supply in a fair and reasonable manner- then, it is too expensive for the markets at which it is being targetted.

At present- we are on the cusp of price falls in both the rental and resale markets- though this is not reflected in the new property market (thus far). This is where we now are. However- its market is not homogenous, its fragmented all over the place- and even looking purely at a Dublin versus the rest of the country profile- is hiding a myriad of local trends (such as the stalling in DLR that the media don't seem to have picked up on).

There is of course going to be an element of schadenfreude- when its the more expensive areas that are grinding to a halt- ahead of areas further out- however- its a trend that radiates outward- and is already apparent in the lesser affluent areas- and deepening..........

I'm seeing far more downsides to the overall market- than I am upsides- wholly ignoring the supplyside issues.

I think people are taking poor properties over priced taking time to sell as a sign of a slow down, anything in a reasonable condition, in a desirable area is still selling very quickly.

in my own neck of the woods several new small in fill estates have been built, most of the houses are the guts of a million euro (give or take 100k for aspect, garden size etc) and they are selling. Similarly for reasonably priced second hand stock (relatively).

Some of the stuff selling for 700k plus in blackrock is mind boggling and needs about 200k spent on it to make a home of it.

Affordability is a self correcting issue, and if its an issue as you are saying them you will see it in decreased achieved prices.

it hasnt happened in my neck of DLR yet

LirW

The thing with affordability is though that if prices come down, they'll only come down so far that the next people on top of the lower bracket will be able to afford it. There is now a stage where there is such little supply for the sub 400k bracket - where the average FTB falls in - that everything else is too expensive for them. If prices fall, then only so far that the people with the highest budget in that sub 400k bracket will be able to buy it. Which are a good few people again.
So it still leaves a huge amount of people out.

Same with rental really. The rents are pretty damn high now, if they come down then only so far to meet the budget of the top of the next bracket.

I hope you understand what I mean.