Property Market 2017

Graham

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

With Ulster offering 2.6 for under 80% for four years?

The extra 6 years is the big difference.

Plenty of people would be happy to know what their mortgage repayments are going to be for the next decade.

mloc123

Graham wrote: »

The extra 6 years is the big difference.

Plenty of people would be happy to know what their mortgage repayments are going to be for the next decade.

I would, PTSB only offer 5 yr fixed currently

Graham

+1

Rate fixing isn't always about getting the absolute cheapest APR over the term of the mortgage although it is obviously one of the considerations.

For many people rate fixing is about repayment certainty over the long term rather than saving 0.3% APR for the next 4 years.

techdiver

I posted this in another thread but it seems to be discussed here.

I know this could be a how long is a piece of string question, but we are currently in the process of moving our mortgage to KBC.

We will be availing of a rate of 3.1% variable. I now see they are offering a 10 year fixed rate of 2.99% (60-80% LTV). At the moment we take a longer term and overpay the mortgage to allow for differing circumstances down the line, but this 10 year fixed rate looks tempting. I would just shorten the term and take the risk I would say.

Are there any opinions on this as to whether this 10 year fixed rate is good value of should I stick with the flexibility of the variable rate and the the potential risk of rate hikes over the next few years?

theboringfox

techdiver wrote: »

I posted this in another thread but it seems to be discussed here.

I know this could be a how long is a piece of string question, but we are currently in the process of moving our mortgage to KBC.

We will be availing of a rate of 3.1% variable. I now see they are offering a 10 year fixed rate of 2.99% (60-80% LTV). At the moment we take a longer term and overpay the mortgage to allow for differing circumstances down the line, but this 10 year fixed rate looks tempting. I would just shorten the term and take the risk I would say.

Are there any opinions on this as to whether this 10 year fixed rate is good value of should I stick with the flexibility of the variable rate and the the potential risk of rate hikes over the next few years?

You can split your mortgage. Leave say 20% on variable so you can pay it down.

pilly

pajoguy wrote:

My first post in this thread. Have a 3 bed end of terrace which we are thinking of selling. We rent it out at the moment for 800 pm. Tenants moving out in 6 weeks and we might be looking for 900 even 950 pm. We are accidental landlords. We questioned a local auctioneer a few months ago about the property might achieve and he said around the 170-180 mark. I got a free appraisal today from one of the mainstream auctioneers and they said somewhere between 210 and 220! Mortgage of 223 left. Repayments are 1150. I hate being a landlord and all it entails (including losing around 400pm) and we have been so lucky with great tenants. It is difficult to know what the market is like regionally. Dublin is much easier to guage.

Where is the house?

flashforward

theboringfox wrote: »

You can split your mortgage. Leave say 20% on variable so you can pay it down.

Do all banks allow this?
Haven't heard of it before, any links to banks official take on it?

Islander13

flashforward wrote: »

Do all banks allow this?
Haven't heard of it before, any links to banks official take on it?

Standard practice in the industry, can choose whatever split you want. I've done it with BOI

myshirt

flashforward wrote: »

Do all banks allow this?
Haven't heard of it before, any links to banks official take on it?

They do. The only problem is some banks seem to find it hard enough to calculate interest accruals as it is. It's a legacy issue with grade mix and competency levels. Basically still some more civil service era employees to filter out of the organisations.

theboringfox

flashforward wrote: »

Do all banks allow this?
Haven't heard of it before, any links to banks official take on it?

Administratively it is a little more burdensome. There is no benefit to bank so not going to promote it. But they don't hide it either. In fact you can split it into more than two parts e.g. you could have 20% on variable 30% fixed for 5 years and 50% fixed for 7 years.

Victor

OwlsZat wrote: »

Ya we did make it attractive. We gave them a tax holiday. Free money. We were exceptionally generous to them.
I assume we only did it because Ireland is so reliant on tax generated from housing.

How does that work?

techdiver

theboringfox wrote: »

You can split your mortgage. Leave say 20% on variable so you can pay it down.

Thanks for the reply.

I suppose I want to keep the process as simple as possible.

I'm just trying to decide between to pros and cons of fixing v variable.

What I've come up with so far is:

Fixing:

Pros:

1. Lower Interest Rate (2.99% over 10 years)
2. Payment Certainty
3. Shielded from Interest Rate increases

Cons:

1. No flexibility to increase/decrease payment over the fixed period
2. Interest rates might fall and I would be locked into the agreed rate for the fixed period

Variable

Pros:

1. Ability to take out longer term and over pay when we have the ability
2. Ability to move providers or rates if better offers become available

Cons:

1. Exposure to interest rate increases
2. Higher initial rate (3.1%)

I know it's real crystal ball stuff, especially over 10 years, but part of me is wondering why the banks are offering such "good" (in relative Irish terms) long term fixed rates? Do they anticipate rates falling further??

draiochtanois

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Graham

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

I'd guess that's the most significant part of it.

techdiver

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Given the choice what option would you go for?

draiochtanois

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handlemaster

techdiver wrote: »

I posted this in another thread but it seems to be discussed here.

I know this could be a how long is a piece of string question, but we are currently in the process of moving our mortgage to KBC.

We will be availing of a rate of 3.1% variable. I now see they are offering a 10 year fixed rate of 2.99% (60-80% LTV). At the moment we take a longer term and overpay the mortgage to allow for differing circumstances down the line, but this 10 year fixed rate looks tempting. I would just shorten the term and take the risk I would say.

Are there any opinions on this as to whether this 10 year fixed rate is good value of should I stick with the flexibility of the variable rate and the the potential risk of rate hikes over the next few years?

I would go for the 10 year deal. Its a no brainer. Rates will move up in that period.

techdiver

handlemaster wrote: »

I would go for the 10 year deal. Its a no brainer. Rates will move up in that period.

I've gone for a split to allow flexibility and to be able to overpay a portion of the mortgage.

We will be overpaying a large chunk which we could not do with a full fixed mortgage.

qrx

Anyone seeing a change in attitude? I'm noticing seller greed is being less effective. Are people copping on and walking away from this bidding war nonsense? I've got a gut feeling things are starting to plateau.

Browney7

handlemaster wrote: »

I would go for the 10 year deal. Its a no brainer. Rates will move up in that period.

The ECB rate and bond yields will increase but the net interest margin banks are making on new lending is very juicy.

As more capital is repaid on trackers and the more new lending that comes on stream it's possible competition pressures will bring rates down. I think mortgage rates will drop a little bit more in the next year or so.

The_Conductor

qrx wrote: »

Anyone seeing a change in attitude? I'm noticing seller greed is being less effective. Are people copping on and walking away from this bidding war nonsense? I've got a gut feeling things are starting to plateau.

You didn't follow the Bidx residential auctions on yesterday (and the Commercial auctions today) then........
Over 200 residential lots (and another 130 commercial lots)- and some right stinkers in there- and yet people are willing to bid on them. Prices may have moderated somewhat- but the quality of the stuff being sold is appalling.

Link here: https://bidx1.com/auction/properties/259?_v=1

Have a look at some of the less desireable locations- and the prices they attained- some of the provincial offerings made serious money- most of the Cork lots were very strong too- but the Dublin prices seem to have been a lot more restrained (with a few notable exceptions)

Definitely have a look at the properties and the prices achieved. A lot of the absolute crap- seems to have been highly desireable. Loads of stuff in the border counties too...... Cavan seems to have gotten some remarkable interest in some lots- achieving totally improbable prices. Obviously a few people were seriously interested in specific properties. Good luck to them.

Browney7

The_Conductor wrote: »

You didn't follow the Bidx residential auctions on yesterday (and the Commercial auctions today) then........
Over 200 residential lots (and another 130 commercial lots)- and some right stinkers in there- and yet people are willing to bid on them. Prices may have moderated somewhat- but the quality of the stuff being sold is appalling.

Link here: https://bidx1.com/auction/properties/259?_v=1

Have a look at some of the less desireable locations- and the prices they attained- some of the provincial offerings made serious money- most of the Cork lots were very strong too- but the Dublin prices seem to have been a lot more restrained (with a few notable exceptions)

Definitely have a look at the properties and the prices achieved. A lot of the absolute crap- seems to have been highly desireable. Loads of stuff in the border counties too...... Cavan seems to have gotten some remarkable interest in some lots- achieving totally improbable prices. Obviously a few people were seriously interested in specific properties. Good luck to them.

I got a good laugh off the 12 houses in Cavan for over 800k and the boarded up shell in Clondalkin for 180k!

The_Conductor

Browney7 wrote: »

I got a good laugh off the 12 houses in Cavan for over 800k and the boarded up shell in Clondalkin for 180k!

Similar in Cork- only someone insane paid 1.1m for this crap:

https://bidx1.com/auction/property/22640?page=2&pageSize=50&_v=1

Mickiemcfist

The_Conductor wrote: »

Similar in Cork- only someone insane paid 1.1m for this crap:

https://bidx1.com/auction/property/22640?page=2&pageSize=50&_v=1

At least that has 15.4 acres near cork city

machu

Does anyone know the results of the REA Munster auction held today ?

LirW

The_Conductor wrote: »

Similar in Cork- only someone insane paid 1.1m for this crap:

https://bidx1.com/auction/property/22640?page=2&pageSize=50&_v=1

Maybe good land for building.

davindub

The_Conductor wrote: »

Similar in Cork- only someone insane paid 1.1m for this crap:

https://bidx1.com/auction/property/22640?page=2&pageSize=50&_v=1

15 acres of potential development land.

Not bad at all for 1.1m!

AsianDub

qrx wrote: »

Anyone seeing a change in attitude? I'm noticing seller greed is being less effective. Are people copping on and walking away from this bidding war nonsense? I've got a gut feeling things are starting to plateau.

No it's actually gotten worse now since after the summer holidays. More bidders climbing over each other where I'm looking.

The_Conductor

AsianDub wrote: »

No it's actually gotten worse now since after the summer holidays. More bidders climbing over each other where I'm looking.

Honestly- I think there was formerly a panic on the part of prospective buyers- who felt compelled to buy- something, anything- but to buy, come hell or high water. Buyers are now being a lot more selective about what they are willing to buy- and where. You can see this in prices in Dublin, Cork and Galway already- prices are moderating- other than for specific properties in specific locations. The market is definitely cooling. A lot of property is being reduced in price- and even then- a lot of property just isn't selling.

Have a look at the link to the Bidx auction a few posts up- its the company who formerly ran the Allsop auctions here. Over 320 lots in total- and just over half of them didn't attract a single bid- and of those that did sell- almost half had a single bidder- the number of properties with multiple bidders was very much an outlier this time round.

I'd love to see results from yesterday's REA Munster auction (if anyone has a link to them)- I suspect the trend is broadly similar.

If you are looking for a property in a high demand area- you run the risk of a single other bidder- driving the prices up- however, going by what we're seeing in online auction results- the frenzy which was apparent, perhaps up to earlier this year- by and large (with a few notable exceptions)- even in a Dublin context- has gone.

The commercial market appears to be significantly stronger than the residential market in recent months- which is a first in a long time. ROIs of 4-5% are widespread- though if you look at yesterday's results- there are a few ROIs up in the 20% brackets- which is a bit of a curiousity- I suspect there is something going on that isn't immediately apparent.

ROIs on residential property with sitting tenants- are >10% across the board- but significantly lower for vacant units (where they actually sold- and there are a shedload of them that didn't attract even lowball bids at the auction- if you click into them- you can see the bidding history- bid by bid- and while the bidders are only identified with a number- you can see a lot of the instances where properties sold at significantly above the reserves- event with 40-50 separate bids- they were two people bidding against one another.

I wish all auction results were as transparent as Bidx's- there is a very interesting picture emerging.

I suspect this is the thin edge of the wedge- in the absence of other factors- it'll start to replicate itself down the foodchain.

pilly

Browney7 wrote: »

I got a good laugh off the 12 houses in Cavan for over 800k and the boarded up shell in Clondalkin for 180k!

I can't believe the Clondalkin one sold for 183k?