Property Market 2017

Bob24

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

polydactyl wrote: »

The early morning queues for the lunch time first view/sale of the development on Gracepark Road Drumcondra were certainly reminiscent of 2007, 2008. Was considering finding out where we stand re mortgage as our jobs have substantially improved since I bought our 2 bed apt in 2007 but I reckon we will just hang tough and get the kids bunk beds and keep saving as I couldn't stomach paying over inflated prices again.

Unreal. Buying a house now (deposit paid in Feb, sighing mortgage soon) and went to the showhouse... had to move relatively quick but not that quick.

Certainly hadn't got cash on hand. House in Kildare. Great location. Phase 1 of a development now sold out

I'd say if I went to phase 2 launch it'd be like this. Sounds like it's getting worse. Also a crèche in drumcondra is about to close!

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/no-surprise-as-families-told-to-bring-10000-for-a-deposit-35710050.html

One interesting comment below the article though:

"Drove by the booking office yesterday just before 2pm and I think they were opening for bookings at 2pm. There was about 20 people in a line outside it.

Certainly, nowhere near the hundreds quoted in the article."


I don't know who's right there and I of coures don't automatically believe a random poster. But I've seen journalists drastically bend the truth so many times in my personal experience that I wouldn't take what they write at face value either (especially when it is the Indo writing about property!)

The_Conductor

Bob24 wrote: »

One interesting comment below the article though:

"Drove by the booking office yesterday just before 2pm and I think they were opening for bookings at 2pm. There was about 20 people in a line outside it.

Certainly, nowhere near the hundreds quoted in the article."


I don't know who's right there and I of coures don't automatically believe a random poster. But I've seen journalists drastically bend the truth so many times in my personal experience that I wouldn't take what they write at face value either (especially when it is the Indo writing about property!)

The estate agent with whom the sales are enthrusted- said 'there were no queues, but people turned up on a constant basis over the course of the day, and all properties available for sale were sold by close of business'.

I.e. no stupid queues- but brisk business nonetheless- and a regret on the part of the vendor that they didn't have further properties to offer.

All-in-all- I'd call it a bit more exuberant than it should be- but not paniced buying such as we regularly encountered in 2005-2006.

TiNcAn

I get the feeling that many of those who post on this forum are expecting a crash in the future, how long, nobody can tell.
But I was wondering is the cycle boom-crash part of every property market that will happen eventually? And overall the property prices will inevitably rise? 
I guess in the Irish context this is cycle is repeating at a much faster rate when compared to other markets but maybe it is something that can be attributed to property market on smaller island countries. 
Just putting out some thoughts there.

trobbin

TiNcAn wrote: »

I get the feeling that many of those who post on this forum are expecting a crash in the future, how long, nobody can tell.
But I was wondering is the cycle boom-crash part of every property market that will happen eventually? And overall the property prices will inevitably rise? 
I guess in the Irish context this is cycle is repeating at a much faster rate when compared to other markets but maybe it is something that can be attributed to property market on smaller island countries. 
Just putting out some thoughts there.

Inflation should see property rise over time.

Regarding boom bust cycles. In Ireland we've never really experienced it as we where in a constant lull, until our first big boom. In the states it seems to almost happen in a seven year cycle, they sY seven years of feast then seven years of famine. But property in the states hasn't risen as fast as Ireland, and they had a bigger crash.

It's very hard to say what exactly will happen as much goes on behind doors that we will never know of. I usually go with income to house ratio, which in spite what certain statistics say, I think we're overpriced.

That could be due to supply, but there's always a lack of supply. In 2006 people where saying there wasn't enough supply, and they where right! Many of the oversupplied houses weren't in the right location. It's just a difficult time for FTB'ers. Brexit could F it all up

The_Conductor

trobbin wrote: »

Inflation should see property rise over time.

True- however, in an Irish context- house price inflation in key markets (and we do now have a series of key markets- its simply inexcusable to use national 'averages' any longer- are showing housing price inflation at below the rate of inflation. This is viewed as a good thing by certain quarters- however, others take the more cynical view- people have stopped even trying to buy, that is to chase an impossible dream, in many areas- and have simply exported inflation to secondary and tertiary choice locations.

trobbin wrote: »

Regarding boom bust cycles. In Ireland we've never really experienced it as we where in a constant lull, until our first big boom. In the states it seems to almost happen in a seven year cycle, they sY seven years of feast then seven years of famine. But property in the states hasn't risen as fast as Ireland, and they had a bigger crash.

We have though- and it was a contributory factor to the first bail-out of AIB (where they lent wildly for the purchase of farm-land as they viewed it as a sure-fire bet- look at the run up to the crisis after we joined the EEC as it then was).

With respect of the property price crash in the States- you're actually inaccurate- the Irish property crash was globally the most severe- and also in a global context- we've refused to crystalise losses in our banking sector- which has given us a 'lost decade' not quite on parr with Japan's missing 25 years- but we seem intent on trying to give them a run for their money.........

trobbin wrote: »

It's very hard to say what exactly will happen as much goes on behind doors that we will never know of. I usually go with income to house ratio, which in spite what certain statistics say, I think we're overpriced.

There are actually very good meeting notes available from the Central Bank on their meetings- politicians and the Department of Finance- are more opaque. You can actually follow the train of thought of the various people on the field though.

Hell- yes, we're overpriced- however, its localised thus far- and there doesn't seem to be any cognisance of this by Central government- just because you can buy a 3 bed apartment in Carrick-on-Shannon on a local income multiple of 3.7 does not mean you can buy a commensurate unit in the Dublin docklands- on a local income multiple of 7 (never mind 3.7- and that is wholly ignoring the fact that the residents of the Dublin Docklands mean income is over 4 times that of the mean income in Carrick-on-Shannon.

I.e. people cannot afford to live where they want or need to live- and it is causing untold societal costs- look at the workers who have to commute for 4-5-6 hours a day- there is a cost associated with this- that no-one is enumerating. Sure- they can buy in Portlaoise (or even Limerick)- however, if they have to work in D2- is that fair or reasonable? CIE did a customer survey on their early morning Limerick to Dublin scheduled trains not so long ago- you'd be flabbergasted at the number of commuters who do Limerick to Dublin on a daily basis.

trobbin wrote: »

That could be due to supply, but there's always a lack of supply. In 2006 people where saying there wasn't enough supply, and they where right! Many of the oversupplied houses weren't in the right location. It's just a difficult time for FTB'ers. Brexit could F it all up

Location is still the bigger issue- we are now building 18k houses (CIF expected completions for 2017) however- once again- they are not where people want or need to live. Hell- we've even got new developments in Carrick-on-Shannon and Longford- which is totally unbelievable- and yet- the largest residential development in South Dublin is proposing to charge 2,600 a month for a 1 bed apartment- and up to 4k a month for a 3 bed (and trying to justify this with 'concierge services'). I'm sorry- someone somewhere has taken their eye off the ball. Sure- we need high quality units in South Dublin- if we are to attract financial services from the UK and other business- but we also need accommodation for us ordinary plebs too. We're creating high-class ghettos in South Dublin- over large tracts of the county- where people who grew up in the area- cannot hope or aspire to staying there- regardless of their jobs or motivations. Something is wrong there.

Graham

The_Conductor wrote: »

Hell- yes, we're overpriced- however, its localised thus far- and there doesn't seem to be any cognisance of this by Central government- just because you can buy a 3 bed apartment in Carrick-on-Shannon on a local income multiple of 3.7 does not mean you can buy a commensurate unit in the Dublin docklands- on a local income multiple of 7 (never mind 3.7- and that is wholly ignoring the fact that the residents of the Dublin Docklands mean income is over 4 times that of the mean income in Carrick-on-Shannon.

I.e. people cannot afford to live where they want or need to live

I don't think the price of a water-view apartment in walking distance of the central business district in any European capital city is a sensible yardstick by which to judge a property market.

The_Conductor

Graham wrote: »

I don't think the price of a water-view apartment in walking distance of the central business district in any European capital city is a sensible yardstick by which to judge a property market.

Fine. Use a 10 mile commute to work as a yardstick- the principle holds- people cannot afford the luxury of living where they really should be living.

Ray Palmer

I think the general public in Ireland have completely misunderstood the property market for the last 20 years. People have now become obsessed with the idea of a crash. The belief now is any rising in the property market means a crash will happen. It is akin to saying all heat is the result of an out of control fire.

For a bubble and crash you need much more than rising prices you need an oversupply. We don't have an over supply and are way behind what we need for the foreseeable future. There is also the assumption that people can just wait out the market. The thing is once go over 40 and have no property you are not likely to get mortgage. That means the demographics of people renting has changed forever now. Those that missed their chance due to the boom now have to rent forever more. This means more rentals are required than before. Rentals used to be freed up when people moved on to buy.

In times past Dublin had huge houses that were split up as they were affordable as single dwelling the properties like this retained their value. So now we have suburban houses that are too expensive for people to buy but they still need a place to live. Even relatively normal houses are being split up and rented as two separate places and this will become more common. House price doesn't drop but what people live in does. The reason people will do it is because commuting times are just going to keep getting worse and more expensive. There is also going to be a drop in car ownership as it gets more expensive.

The option to live further out and drive will be more expensive and the next generation won't want to waste time commuting. All of this can been seen already large cities and Dublin is the largest city here so the same thing will happen just on a smaller scale. Living in the city on minimum wage is only possible by subsiding and eventually stops. Councils sell the property to tenants and then they sell making a nice profit.

Graham

The_Conductor wrote: »

Fine. Use a 10 mile commute to work as a yardstick- the principle holds- people cannot afford the luxury of living where they really should be living.

The measure of a property market is not how many people can afford to live within 10 miles of the central business district of its capital.

Most people aren't commuting by donkey so the arbitrary 10 miles appears to have been plucked out of nowhere other than your own view that the entire population should somehow be able to live buy in the docklands.

Bob24

Graham wrote: »

your own view that the entire population should somehow be able to live buy in the docklands.

This is really not what I understand The_Conductor's view is based on reading his post.

The concern he mentioned is that affordability is low based on the mean income for that particular area (which he clearly pointed is much higher than the national mean income).

The_Conductor

Graham wrote: »

The measure of a property market is not how many people can afford to live within 10 miles of the central business district of its capital.

No- its a measure of the income multiple of the median person working in the area. For the Central business district in Dublin- that is now at just under 8. For someone in flood capital of Ireland- Carrick-on-Shannon, its what I'd call a rather remarkable 3.7

I.e. it is more affordable for someone on a far lower salary to live in Carrick-on-Shannon- than it is for someone on a very good salary in the Financial Sector- to live in the Docklands (I choose a 3 bed apartment solely because there are comparable apartments built by the same company to the same plans in both locations- i.e. to try and say you were comparing like with like- that the only difference was the location).

Graham wrote: »

Most people aren't commuting by donkey so the arbitrary 10 miles appears to have been plucked out of nowhere other than your own view that the entire population should somehow be able to live buy in the docklands.

I honestly don't believe that the population should be able to live in the docklands- I do however believe that commuting for 5-6 hours a day- which an increasing number of people are doing- is nuts. As for commuting by donkey- I'm not sure whether you go into Dublin on a weekday very often- however, commuting by donkey would probably be faster than pretty much any other method, albeit you'd arrive at your destination with a sore ass (excuse the pun on the word).

My point is- affordability- is out of kilter in some areas for people who work there- whereas it isn't in others. I.e. property prices in some areas are further out of where they might be expected to be- than others.

Some people are willing to put a price on living in the docklands (for example) and say that its worth the extra 2k a month over and above their colleague who spends 5 hours a day commuting.......

Its this whole- Monaghan/Cavan/Athlone/Kilkenny/Wexford- being sold as dormer towns for Dublin- which is nuts- and by extension- the extra early morning services from Limerick/Galway/Cork to Dublin- to cater for commuters (who at least they can sleep on the train, have their breakfast or do some work with the complementary wifi that Iarann Ród Eireann now supply.

I.e. Someone on a high salary in Dublin has to pay 7.9 times their salary for a relatively inelegant shoebox- versus someone in Carrick-on-Shannon who can afford the same shoebox for 3.7 times their salary (which to be brutally honest- is still remarkable).

The country is nuts- we may officially not be a whole lot outside of international norms- however, all is not well in the State of Denmark........

Graham

The_Conductor wrote: »

No- its a measure of the income multiple of the median person working in the area. For the Central business district in Dublin- that is now at just under 8.

as I said, it's nothing like representative of the property market in general.

How many people working in Knightsbridge do you reckon can afford to live there? How many people working in the City in London?

Picking the most expensive part of the country and pretending someone on minimum/average wage should be able to afford to live there is fairly nonsensical.

accensi0n

Graham wrote: »

as I said, it's nothing like representative of the property market in general.

How many people working in Knightsbridge do you reckon can afford to live there? How many people working in the City in London?

Picking the most expensive part of the country and pretending someone on minimum/average wage should be able to afford to live there is fairly nonsensical.

It's already been noted that that's not what he's saying though? ..

cnocbui

Good luck to those people arguing prices are too high in Dublin:

JP Morgan Buying $137 Million Dublin Office for 1,000 Staff

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-15/jpmorgan-agrees-to-buy-dublin-office-for-more-than-1-000-staff

FutureGuy

cnocbui wrote: »

Good luck to those people arguing prices are too high in Dublin:



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-15/jpmorgan-agrees-to-buy-dublin-office-for-more-than-1-000-staff

Seeing the same in Limerick. Huge investment in business in city centre with office developments starting to be built.

keane2097

Any update on when the development in Bishop's Quay is due to go ahead?

cnocbui

FutureGuy wrote: »

Seeing the same in Limerick. Huge investment in business in city centre with office developments starting to be built.

If some of the Brexit refugees have been smart enough to give Dublin a miss and set up in regional centres, then hats off to them for having more brains than irish politicians possess collectively.

I welcome anything that would give a boost to property prices, which are too low.

Samuel T. Cogley

Sorry and I don't mean to offend the good people of Limerick but if I was told my job was going from London to Dublin, fair enough - not great but at least is has some of the amenities I'm used to. London to Limerick - not so much. I assume it's operative level stuff and a good deal of local recruitment?

cnocbui

I can well understand that giving up breathing diesel fumes could be hard and quite a sacrifice. Same for not commuting in big tin cans of compressed people. Seeing foxes and hares trotting across your lawn while you do the washing up is very scary too, not for the faint of heart.

Graham

cnocbui wrote: »

I can well understand that giving up breathing diesel fumes could be hard and quite a sacrifice. Same for not commuting in big tin cans of compressed people. Seeing foxes and hares trotting across your lawn while you do the washing up is very scary too, not for the faint of heart.

'Move your bank to Limerick, we have foxes and grass' isn't the most compelling sales pitch I've ever heard in fairness. :pac:

keane2097

Graham wrote: »

'Move your bank to Limerick, we have foxes and grass' isn't the most compelling sales pitch I've ever heard in fairness. :pac:

Seems to be working on Northern Trust

http://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/249821/northern-trust-boss-predicts-1-000-new-jobs-for-limerick.html

cnocbui

Graham wrote: »

'Move your bank to Limerick, we have foxes and grass' isn't the most compelling sales pitch I've ever heard in fairness. :pac:

... and a 1 GBps fibre connection to the house.

Cheap and available housing for your staff would be another incentive vs Dublin.

Bob24

cnocbui wrote: »

... and a 1 GBps fibre connection to the house.

Cheap and available housing for your staff would be another incentive vs Dublin.

Unless it is just low skilled back office operations, the staff in question probably wants international schools, good airline connections to Europe and the rest of the world, plenty of world class entertainement/cultural activities, fancy restaurant, etc ...

Absolutely no offence to Limerick and smaller cities also have their advantages, but while Dublin doesn't get even close to London in terms of the things I mentioned it is definitely much closer than Limerick ever will be.

Graham

keane2097 wrote: »

Seems to be working on Northern Trust

http://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/249821/northern-trust-boss-predicts-1-000-new-jobs-for-limerick.html

Excellent news for Limerick indeed.

Unfortunately, 'move your bank to Limerick, Northern Trust have' isn't going to be the clincher most currently London based bank staff are looking for.

keane2097

Graham wrote: »

Excellent news for Limerick indeed.

Unfortunately, 'move your bank to Limerick, Northern Trust have' isn't going to be the clincher most currently London based bank staff are looking for.

I think the obvious point is that places outside of Dublin can indeed attract fintech corporations in some cases.

It stands to reason that if Northern Trust can get 2000 competent employees either in the area or to move to the area it isn't quite the black hole we're occasionally led to believe by those who are against the idea of encouraging companies to set up in places other than Dublin.

I seriously doubt the rank and file bank staff are the people making the decisions about where their companies are relocating to by the way.

Samuel T. Cogley

cnocbui wrote: »

... and a 1 GBps fibre connection to the house.

Cheap and available housing for your staff would be another incentive vs Dublin.

It would and it wouldn't. I'm from not far from London and lived in Scotland for a while also, Dublin prices even now aren't really that much of a shocker for me. The parents place is at most 80sqm. End of Terrace worth about €330K, the in laws have just bought in Banbridge for not much change from €400K - albeit a much bigger detached house. Expectations are different for the Brits moving from the South East.

That said it's a very smart move if they are going to recruit locally etc. or if they're moving certain jobs. I just can't imagine a Oxbridge graduate working in Finance jumping at moving to any town of less than 200K. It just doesn't have the facilities. Also fair amount of foxes and even rumors of a black panther where I grew up. :pac:

Graham

keane2097 wrote: »

I think the obvious point is that places outside of Dublin can indeed attract fintech corporations in some cases.

Of course they can but lets not kid ourselves that large swathes of the financial services industry are going to be relocating wholesale to small regional Irish cities.

keane2097 wrote: »

I seriously doubt the rank and file bank staff are the people making the decisions about where their companies are relocating to by the way.

I agree that bank staff can't dictate new business location, the banks do have to consider how many of their essential staff will be prepared to relocate.

Ultimately, as lovely as many of our regional towns/cities are, there are going to be limits on the availability of local talent and limits on the number of people prepared to relocate to them.

cnocbui

Bob24 wrote: »

Unless it is just low skilled back office operations, the staff in question probably wants international schools, good airline connections to Europe and the rest of the world, plenty of world class entertainement/cultural activities, fancy restaurant, etc ...

Absolutely no offence to Limerick and smaller cities also have their advantages, but while Dublin doesn't get even close to London in terms of the things I mentioned it is definitely much closer than Limerick ever will be.

So how's the housing availability situation in Dublin? This thread is an an end-to-end unremitting moan about just that topic. Entertainment venues might be a higher priority for employers than accommodation, but I doubt it. You do know Limerick has a fairly substantial airport in Shannon? Speaking of which, for those who can't live without the big city attractions, a multi-seat corporate jet could do a regular weekend run to London's City airport for a cost being but a fraction of the savings such a location would offer overall. Schools are fantastic. Fancy restaurants would arrive in short order.

keane2097

Graham wrote: »

Of course they can but lets not kid ourselves that large swathes of the financial services industry are going to be relocating wholesale to small regional Irish cities.

I agree that bank staff can't dictate new business location, the banks do have to consider how many of their essential staff will be prepared to relocate.

Ultimately, as lovely as many of our regional towns/cities are, there are going to be limits on the availability of local talent and limits on the number of people prepared to relocate to them.

Well yeah I agree for the most part but you'd often get the impression from people on boards that the whole idea of encouraging these types of jobs in these types of areas is utterly ludicrous, which I don't think it is.

Are we going to have the City of London move wholesale to the west of Ireland, obviously not, but 30 years ago the IFSC wasn't exactly a global powerhouse either.

As an aside - as someone who has just (literally just!) moved from Dublin to Limerick as a 30 year old professional I'm always a little skeptical of the idea that nobody my age would ever countenance such a move. A lot of the people of my vintage working as professionals in Dublin moved there from the regional cities and rural areas for a combination of job prospects and craic availability. I found in my circle which would be made up of those types there would have been fairly widespread desire to get back towards home if the jobs were there - these would be people working in finance, accounting and engineering type jobs for the most part.

Just an anecdote obviously, but I wonder how representative or otherwise it would be.

cnocbui

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

It would and it wouldn't. I'm from not far from London and lived in Scotland for a while also, Dublin prices even now aren't really that much of a shocker for me. The parents place is at most 80sqm. End of Terrace worth about ?330K, the in laws have just bought in Banbridge for not much change from ?400K - albeit a much bigger detached house. Expectations are different for the Brits moving from the South East.

That said it's a very smart move if they are going to recruit locally etc. or if they're moving certain jobs. I just can't imagine a Oxbridge graduate working in Finance jumping at moving to any town of less than 200K. It just doesn't have the facilities. Also fair amount of foxes and even rumors of a black panther where I grew up. :pac:

On a flight from London to Shannon once on a Friday evening, I sat next to a man from the City. He worked in London and had a flat but the family lived in or around limerick and he commuted. We chatted. If you think everyone wants to bring up a family in London, you are mistaken.