Property Market 2017

OfflerCrocGod

You can ask for 20/30% more all you want but if people aren't earning enough and if they haven't saved that money then they will not be able to buy. Good luck getting your bank to give you 30% more if you're already at the limit. This isn't 2007.

py

py wrote: »

Certainly not what I'm seeing in the 400-600k price range for the 2nd hand market in Dublin 14/16. Anything we've seen is going above asking, sometimes 10-20% higher. Bidding seems to be going up in 5k increments above 500k. While I know the market has got a little hotter, I'm assuming it's down to the new calendar year and the banks have reset their exception limit... will know in a few months time whether it's that or not as these run out.

A little under 2 months on and we're seeing less people at these viewings and they seem to be taking longer to go sale agreed. Unsure if those previously at viewings in this price range were FTB and have opted to take the up the refund/rebate on new houses, perhaps exceptions have dried up or people are just a little scared as to what could happen with the market. There's still good properties coming online in the area, a little unsure as to why they're not being sold as quick.

Bob24

py wrote: »

A little under 2 months on and we're seeing less people at these viewings and they seem to be taking longer to go sale agreed. Unsure if those previously at viewings in this price range were FTB and have opted to take the up the refund/rebate on new houses, perhaps exceptions have dried up or people are just a little scared as to what could happen with the market. There's still good properties coming online in the area, a little unsure as to why they're not being sold as quick.

Which way do you feel actual agreed selling prices are going?

aloooof

Bob24 wrote: »

Which way do you feel actual agreed selling prices are going?

I've seen one recently, at the bottom of the market with asking price 249k go for 289k, 16% over asking.

Bob24

Thanks. Question was actually more for py who has been viewing similar properties for some time. Is that fact that there are lest people attending the viewings pushing prices down or are they still stable/rising in spite of that?

py

Bob24 wrote: »

Which way do you feel actual agreed selling prices are going?

I've seen asking prices rise. We're still viewing prices in the 400-600k range which is a fairly wide scope within the area we're looking at. The houses that have come up recently seem to be quite high and I don't think they'll get the asking. 1 house that never went sale agreed has been relisted for another 25k higher, I personally think they've missed their chance and they'd have been lucky to have the original asking. Stuff that is priced right was definitely moving quicker but definitely seeing things move slower now. It's too early for summer holidays to be affecting the annual cycle so I'm not sure if it's just a little lull or whether there is an actual change in the 2nd market in the price range we're looking at.


Another property which couldn't get it's asking of ~500k 12-18 months ago has gone up for ~575k. if it goes anywhere near the asking price then we're close to 2007/2008 levels for this particular road.

polydactyl

The early morning queues for the lunch time first view/sale of the development on Gracepark Road Drumcondra were certainly reminiscent of 2007, 2008. Was considering finding out where we stand re mortgage as our jobs have substantially improved since I bought our 2 bed apt in 2007 but I reckon we will just hang tough and get the kids bunk beds and keep saving as I couldn't stomach paying over inflated prices again.

omicron

Growth in March of 0.1% nationally, 9.6% on annual basis. February revised downward from 10.7 to 9.4%.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/rppimar2017/

Jan 0.7%, Feb 0.4%, Mar 0.1%.

Dublin up 67% in 4 years.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Slowing but still going up.

Sleepy

Curious to see Fingal lagging seriously behind the rest of Dublin at 2.2% annual growth versus 6.9% in DLR and 10.7% in Dublin City.

cnocbui

jamesthepeach wrote: »

Ok. I was on the fence before. Actually I was more on the no crash but cautious side.
We're headed for another property crash. I'm certain now.

If so, then it will only be in Dublin as the rest of the country is affordable by world standards. Dublin is presently very affordable compared to the insanity that reigns in many other parts of the world. People in Dublin looking for a house should count themselves lucky wealthy Chinese haven't decided to buy 40% of all that's on offer, they way they have in Australia.

jamesthepeach

cnocbui wrote: »

If so, then it will only be in Dublin as the rest of the country is affordable by world standards. Dublin is presently very affordable compared to the insanity that reigns in many other parts of the world. People in Dublin looking for a house should count themselves lucky wealthy Chinese haven't decided to buy 40% of all that's on offer, they way they have in Australia.

Jaysus it's like an echo of 2005.
I'm.nearly sure I read this and other posts here word for word back then.
Complete with graphs and all.
I'm not saying there will be a crash. But it's frightening the talk compared between now and then.

cnocbui

Yeah, it's an exact repeat of 2005 - massive building boom all over the country, houses popping up overnight in fields like mushrooms.

OfflerCrocGod

The problem isn't leverage like in 2005 etc. It's lack of supply. That's why prices are being pushed up so fast. They can't continue, there has to be a point where people can't pay anymore. The LTI rule is the hard limit in reality. Yes, couples in good jobs who have saved large deposits can afford to push up prices fast and hard but there is a limit even there. Saving €5K takes most people time so once their savings and LTI limits are hit they have to surrender. But people are desperate so they will put down as much as they can.

Make no mistake though this is not 2005 all over again, we aren't talking about 100% mortgages. The FTB grant had to be tweaked from 20% deposit to 30% deposit max because such a large number of FTBs were putting 20%+ down. There has been a lot of hunkering down and saving going on in Ireland these past 7-8 years.

How can we be in the midst of a debt bubble while at the same time doing this https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/0510/874016-irish-households-reducing-debt-quicker-than-rest-of-eu/ ?

Graham

jamesthepeach wrote: »

Jaysus it's like an echo of 2005.
I'm.nearly sure I read this and other posts here word for word back then.
Complete with graphs and all.
I'm not saying there will be a crash. But it's frightening the talk compared between now and then.

Interesting logic.

Graphs were used before the GFC, so the fact graphs are being used again must surely be a sign of an impending crash?

People said property prices weren't going to nosedive before the gfc, if anyone suggests it ever again it must surely be a sign of oncoming doom?

trobbin

Graham wrote: »

Interesting logic.

Graphs were used before the GFC, so the fact graphs are being used again must surely be a sign of an impending crash?

People said property prices weren't going to nosedive before the gfc, if anyone suggests it ever again it must surely be a sign of oncoming doom?

I wonder if the graph used has any significance. For instance the graph used is from 2016 and is also clearly wrong, it says median house price is 3 times the median income? I don't understand why people continue to lie about these figures when all data is real.

Things in favour for property prices in Dublin.
1.Very high rents
2.Lack of supply
3.Access to credit
4.Psychology (buy now or we'll never be able too)
5.All time low interest rates

Things against property prices in Dublin
1. Affordability (in spite what many say, people are struggling to buy)
2. High inflation (insurance, utilities, services, rising fast)
3. Brexit (could really damage whole economy)
4. Corporation tax worldwide (UK decreasing, Trump trying too)
5. Trumps infrastructure incentive too multinationals (could be huge player)
6. Supply is starting to gain pace
7. Interest rates (they will go up)
8. Not as many spectators these days, plus people have learned from last cycle and won't want to be the person crying about negative equity.
9. Property TAX (it's getting increased in future)

I'm sure there's more to and for that others will think of, but that's my opinion.

In England houses have fell this month for the first time in four years, simply due to affordability. Just simply can't afford them. Not everyone is able to afford high prices.

cnocbui

trobbin wrote: »

I wonder if the graph used has any significance. For instance the graph used is from 2016 and is also clearly wrong, it says median house price is 3 times the median income? I don't understand why people continue to lie about these figures when all data is real.

Things in favour for property prices in Dublin.
1.Very high rents
2.Lack of supply
3.Access to credit
4.Psychology (buy now or we'll never be able too)
5.All time low interest rates

Things against property prices in Dublin
1. Affordability (in spite what many say, people are struggling to buy)
2. High inflation (insurance, utilities, services, rising fast)
3. Brexit (could really damage whole economy)
4. Corporation tax worldwide (UK decreasing, Trump trying too)
5. Trumps infrastructure incentive too multinationals (could be huge player)
6. Supply is starting to gain pace
7. Interest rates (they will go up)
8. Not as many spectators these days, plus people have learned from last cycle and won't want to be the person crying about negative equity.
9. Property TAX (it's getting increased in future)

I'm sure there's more to and for that others will think of, but that's my opinion.

In England houses have fell this month for the first time in four years, simply due to affordability. Just simply can't afford them. Not everyone is able to afford high prices.

Here is the source of the graph: http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

And the Title: "13th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability
Survey: 2017"

I doubt those who compiled that report are lying.

trobbin

cnocbui wrote: »

Here is the source of the graph: http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

And the Title: "13th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability
Survey: 2017"

I doubt those who compiled that report are lying.

So it says house prices are 3 times the average income and that's fact? Who do you know buying houses in Dublin that cost 3 times their income?

If it's wrong it's wrong.

cnocbui

trobbin wrote: »

So it says house prices are 3 times the average income and that's fact? Who do you know buying houses in Dublin that cost 3 times their income?

If it's wrong it's wrong.

No, it does not say 3 times. It says the median for the country is 3.4 times. It also says Dublin was 4.7 times incomes for 2016.

Housing affordability continued to decline in Ireland?s only major metropolitan area market, Dublin, where the Median Multiple reached a seriously unaffordable 4.7 in 2016, up from 3.3 in 2011.

The_Conductor

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Slowing but still going up.

But exceptionally high variations- regional growth is now the prime driver- Dublin has stalled (two local authority areas in particular)- even with supply side issues, its pretty much stalled (total Dublin growth is now below the CSO headline inflation rate).

I'm not quite sure what is happening in Dublin- but its not healthy for anyone.

Samuel T. Cogley

Sleepy wrote: »

Curious to see Fingal lagging seriously behind the rest of Dublin at 2.2% annual growth versus 6.9% in DLR and 10.7% in Dublin City.

Typically the Northside has always been the poor relation and Fingal extends out to Balbriggan. We bought two years ago at sub 275, semi-D, 3/4 bed around 100sqm. My plethora of gardens are on view in the Gardening forum :pac: but suffice to say it has a decent garden.

3 bed mid terrace there went up at 295K 80sqm, I see it's been reduced to 275K - might wander over later and kick some tyres. Assuming they get that and a purely per sqm basis - we've seen around a 20% rise closer into the city which is more inline with the stats.

Portmarnock, Baldoyle et al all have developments going on, I'm not sure if they're put in the calculations? Balbriggan did have some value still going on, not sure if that's gone now?

All this is by way of saying, I'm not surprised Fingal is lagging, but I suspect it's just that, we'll be the last to see big demand as people get pushed out from other areas. Obviously that has the knock on effect that if there is a crash in the short term we'll not see the (dubious) benefit of it.

Bob24

On an piece related to the consequences of Brexit, interesting tidbit of what the IMF sees as one of the major challenges for Ireland and what it suggests:

But with the risk of a hit to growth and tax revenues from Brexit, the IMF has called on the Government to ensure it has room for budgetary manoeuvre and that it does more to tackle key infrastructure problems, particularly the housing shortage.

In particular, it calls for measures to increase housing supply, including a levy on vacant sites to encourage development.
Ensuring affordable housing is a vital social priority, as well as being important to economic competitiveness, according to its report, issued at the conclusion of its annual assessment of the economy.

On housing, the IMF warns that the Government’s’s help-to-buy scheme, which offers a tax refund of up to €20,000 to first-time buyers, “may add to demand pressures” and says that a planned review is welcome.

Basically they identify the lack of housing as a critical issue for Ireland in the context of Brexit, and provide a very similar sentiment some posters have shared here: the IMF is doubting gifting money to buyers is a productive measure and says a better way to solve the housing proving would be a level on vacant sites.

The_Conductor

Bob24 wrote: »

Basically a very similar sentiment some posters have shared here: the IMF is doubting gifting money to buyers is a productive measure and says a better way to solve the housing proving would be a level on vacant sites.

Big time- the first time buyers grant was incremented onto the cost of new properties overnight- when it was first announced. There were numerous RTE reports on it.

Its hard for anyone to keep a straight face and say its anything other than a populist gesture towards a demographic the government want to vote for them- because there has been precisely no benefit to first-time-buyers in the whole equation- developers pocketed the entire wad.

Simon Coveney will obviously disagree with this pretty brutal assessment- however, the figure don't lie- and anyone who cares to mine the RTE archives can listen the 'News at One' reports- where price rises were announced overnight on the strength of the wad being lobbed at FTBs.

The_Conductor

Thought the levy on vacant sites was supposed to be commenced in the Finance Bill (obviously it wasn't). Whats the story?

trobbin

cnocbui wrote: »

No, it does not say 3 times. It says the median for the country is 3.4 times. It also says Dublin was 4.7 times incomes for 2016.

Ok fair enough. That seems a bit more realistic for 2016, but it certainly isn't the case in Dublin, ATM. It's gone up quite a bit in the last year.

I didn't read the article I was referring to the graph posted.

trobbin

The_Conductor wrote: »

Thought the levy on vacant sites was supposed to be commenced in the Finance Bill (obviously it wasn't). Whats the story?

Think the story is that the lunatics are running the asylum.

sbs2010

py wrote: »

I've seen asking prices rise. We're still viewing prices in the 400-600k range which is a fairly wide scope within the area we're looking at. The houses that have come up recently seem to be quite high and I don't think they'll get the asking. 1 house that never went sale agreed has been relisted for another 25k higher, I personally think they've missed their chance and they'd have been lucky to have the original asking. Stuff that is priced right was definitely moving quicker but definitely seeing things move slower now. It's too early for summer holidays to be affecting the annual cycle so I'm not sure if it's just a little lull or whether there is an actual change in the 2nd market in the price range we're looking at.


Another property which couldn't get it's asking of ~500k 12-18 months ago has gone up for ~575k. if it goes anywhere near the asking price then we're close to 2007/2008 levels for this particular road.

Hi py,

So its, as makes sense, those priced correctly will sell fastest. Have you noticed any patterns in relation to which estate agents are involved?

GhostyMcGhost

polydactyl wrote: »

The early morning queues for the lunch time first view/sale of the development on Gracepark Road Drumcondra were certainly reminiscent of 2007, 2008. Was considering finding out where we stand re mortgage as our jobs have substantially improved since I bought our 2 bed apt in 2007 but I reckon we will just hang tough and get the kids bunk beds and keep saving as I couldn't stomach paying over inflated prices again.

Unreal. Buying a house now (deposit paid in Feb, sighing mortgage soon) and went to the showhouse... had to move relatively quick but not that quick.

Certainly hadn't got cash on hand. House in Kildare. Great location. Phase 1 of a development now sold out

I'd say if I went to phase 2 launch it'd be like this. Sounds like it's getting worse. Also a crèche in drumcondra is about to close!

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/no-surprise-as-families-told-to-bring-10000-for-a-deposit-35710050.html

py

sbs2010 wrote: »

Hi py,

So its, as makes sense, those priced correctly will sell fastest. Have you noticed any patterns in relation to which estate agents are involved?

DNG stuff is moving quickly, Sherry Fitz is close behind. Between the 2 of them, they would have a good chunk of the market where we're looking. The smaller standalone agents who don't have offices in the particular area seem to struggle with numbers attending viewings at the higher end of our price range but at the lower end there doesn't seem to be any difference between the various agents. I've also noticed the smaller agents tend to have the less attractive properties, where the vendor may not be necessarily thinking about the sale price but rather the estate agents percentage. I've also been tracking what we've viewed on the price register and the smaller agents were certainly selling stuff close to asking for Q3/Q4 2016 but will be very interested to see how Q1/Q2 properties look when they go live on there. The larger agents were going slightly above asking back in Q3/Q4 of last year but based on early evidence of Q1/Q2 2017 they were going a good 10%+ above asking but I'm still waiting on some to register on PPR so could be a few months. This is all from my experience and from the tracking of prices I've been doing in our desired area. Would highly recommend people do the same if they're looking to buy.

rsynnott

jamesthepeach wrote: »

Ok. I was on the fence before. Actually I was more on the no crash but cautious side.
We're headed for another property crash. I'm certain now.

Well, eventually, obviously. It's really more a question of when