Property Market 2017

rsynnott

Bob24 wrote: »

Keep in mind they call it GCD / silicon dock on the marketing documents to make it sound attractive but the actual location is more next to the Eurospar on Townsend Street, a bit off GCD and fairly dodgy at times.

Oh, you're right, so it is. I just assumed from the names that it was that construction site on Hanover Quay right to the east. Okay, that's terrifying, then.

Michael D Not Higgins

jamesthepeach wrote: »

My sister bought her house in 2007 and went on a tracker.
She is half way through the mortgage now and recently our cousin bought the exact same house across the road.
Our cousin's house was a lot cheaper to buy, she told us the details when saying she feels sorry for my sister who bought her house at the peak.

But it turns out her payments are over €250 pm higher than my sisters and my cousin will still be paying hers 15 years after my sister has finished paying her mortgage off. Plus cous has been paying rent for the last 10 years too where sis hasn't.

I didn't have the heart to explain this to dear cous. She's happy she got the best deal.

My sister is considering​ overpaying now by around €500 pm as she is in a good position to pay it off in half the time too.

It's all about luck rather than timing or price.

This situation ignores plenty of variables, including inflation, deposit percent, etc.

Tweaking some numbers and using the info above the only sensible way the numbers work out is if the mortgage from 2007 had a large deposit.
Example
330k price, 50% deposit and 1% tracker over 20 years gives 750 mortgage
200k price, 10% deposit and 4.5% variable over 25 years gives 1000 mortgage

Interestingly in the above example the lifetime cost for the second mortgage is 25k less, not taking any inflation savings into account.

Bob24

rsynnott wrote: »

I just assumed from the names that it was that construction site on Hanover Quay right to the east.

Yes I live across the street from that one (bothered by the noise of construction work everyday except on Sundays!), and I am actually curious to know how many apartments it will have and what the prices will be. I was expecting crazy stuff in the line of 700k for 2 beds but other people's feel on this thread a few weeks ago was that even for GCD it would be much lower than that. Still wondering!

jamesthepeach

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

This situation ignores plenty of variables, including inflation, deposit percent, etc.

Tweaking some numbers and using the info above the only sensible way the numbers work out is if the mortgage from 2007 had a large deposit.
Example
330k price, 50% deposit and 1% tracker over 20 years gives 750 mortgage
200k price, 10% deposit and 4.5% variable over 25 years gives 1000 mortgage

Interestingly in the above example the lifetime cost for the second mortgage is 25k less, not taking any inflation savings into account.

Couldn't tell you all the figures.
I can tell you that I know what they both pay now and for how long their terms are. And the years they bought their houses and that the houses are the exact same.

Oh and I know my sister is on .5% above ecb and her house definitely cost more than 350 and she didn't have a large deposit at all. In fact I loaned her some of the money to scrape it up. thats as much as I know. And my sisters was 20 years and my cousin's is 30.

If I was nosey enough I suppose I could find out how much my cousin's house cost, but I'm not that fussed.

Michael D Not Higgins

jamesthepeach wrote: »

Couldn't tell you all the figures.
I can tell you that I know what they both pay now and for how long their terms are. And the years they bought their houses and that the houses are the exact same.

Oh and I know my sister is on .5% above ecb and her house definitely cost more than 350 and she didn't have a large deposit at all. In fact I loaned her some of the money to scrape it up. thats as much as I know. And my sisters was 20 years and my cousin's is 30.

If I was nosey enough I suppose I could find out how much my cousin's house cost, but I'm not that fussed.

Then it makes even less sense.

Let's say your sister's was 350k with 10% deposit, i.e. 315k mortgage amount and 0% interest for 20 years. The mortgage would be 1312.50.

In order to have a mortgage of 250 more than that at 1562.50 over 30 years at 4.5% you'd have to have a mortgaged amount of 308k, purchase price of 342 (10% deposit).

In order to have an actual significant saving on the first price, you'd need a much bigger disparity in interest rates or deposit rate.

jamesthepeach

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

Then it makes even less sense.

Let's say your sister's was 350k with 10% deposit, i.e. 315k mortgage amount and 0% interest for 20 years. The mortgage would be 1312.50.

In order to have a mortgage of 250 more than that at 1562.50 over 30 years at 4.5% you'd have to have a mortgaged amount of 308k, purchase price of 342 (10% deposit).

In order to have an actual significant saving on the first price, you'd need a much bigger disparity in interest rates or deposit rate.

Well those are the figures I was given. I think you are over analyzing with not enough info to do it.

You or I don't know both purchase prices for a start or lots of other variables. Hell I'm not even 100% sure of the term.of my cousin's mortgage.

If you don't believe it you don't believe it. They are two of the closest people.i have in my life so I believe them both.

I'm.sure they are not the only example of this.

Samuel T. Cogley

When do we think the optimal time to sell one beds will be (around CCish)? I just got off the phone with DNG and it's definitely higher than I thought and asking prices aren't reflective of what they're selling at. Personally I think Brexit is the next potential 'crash maker' so when are we likely to see the affects of that?

Realistically I need another 15-20% rise so I'm thinking 18 months?

Should I break this out to it's own thread?

jamesthepeach

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

When do we think the optimal time to sell one beds will be (around CCish)? I just got off the phone with DNG and it's definitely higher than I thought and asking prices aren't reflective of what they're selling at. Personally I think Brexit is the next potential 'crash maker' so when are we likely to see the affects of that?

Realistically I need another 15-20% rise so I'm thinking 18 months?

Should I break this out to it's own thread?

I just got a valuation way higher than I thought it was going to be. I'm seriously considering putting it on the market now. I have a second one that I was going to keep a little longer.
As I said in another thread I'm just getting out out of rentals. I was thinking airbnb but at the one bed sale prices at the moment screw airbnb even. The easy way out is to sell. And a way out is needed now. Renting out property has become a total mugs game.
The looks apartments in general have been shooting up the last few months.

Samuel T. Cogley

jamesthepeach wrote: »

I just got a valuation way higher than I thought it was going to be. I'm seriously considering putting it on the market now. I have a second one that I was going to keep a little longer.
As I said in another thread I'm just getting out out of rentals. I was thinking airbnb but at the one bed sale prices at the moment screw airbnb even. The easy way out is to sell. And a way out is needed now. Renting out property has become a total mugs game.
The looks apartments in general have been shooting up the last few months.

I was looking for that post to reply too, it's what made me ring DNG

VonLuck

rsynnott wrote: »

Oh, you're right, so it is. I just assumed from the names that it was that construction site on Hanover Quay right to the east. Okay, that's terrifying, then.

But it's in the SOBO district! http://www.sobo.ie/location/

Bob24

VonLuck wrote: »

But it's in the SOBO district! http://www.sobo.ie/location/

Half of what is marked as the "SOBO" district (never heard that before, is it a marketing name?) on that map is actually a huge block of social housing.

Not that I have anything against that, but the website which talks more about what is around it than what is in it is only slightly misleading about the area ;-)

AlmightyCushion

Bob24 wrote: »

Half of what is marked as the "SOBO" district (never heard that before, is it a marketing name?) on that map is actually a huge block of social housing.

Not that I have anything against that, but the website which talks more about what is around it than what is in it is only slightly misleading about the area ;-)

Never heard of it either. It's obviously trying to make the area sound hip and trendy by renaming it Sobo, which conviently sounds like Soho, a hip and trendy part of London. Looks like they're following the South Park school of marketing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miXMWJyOdgw

Bob24

Reminds me of the first time I heard of "central park" in Sandyford :-)

rsynnott

Bob24 wrote: »

Half of what is marked as the "SOBO" district (never heard that before, is it a marketing name?) on that map is actually a huge block of social housing.

Not that I have anything against that, but the website which talks more about what is around it than what is in it is only slightly misleading about the area ;-)

I used to live on the west side of 'SOBO' (cringe). It's okay, but it is not the sort of place I'd expect to see two beds going for >500k. A 2 bed in the modernish building I was renting in went for 350 or something last year, and I thought that was a bit excessive, to be honest.

Bob24

rsynnott wrote: »

I used to live on the west side of 'SOBO' (cringe). It's okay, but it is not the sort of place I'd expect to see two beds going for >500k. A 2 bed in the modernish building I was renting in went for 350 or something last year, and I thought that was a bit excessive, to be honest.

Yes the part closer to the city centre and the edges are OK. But the area next to Eurspar is so-so, I've seen a few dodgy things there and tend to avoid it at night. Pearse street or the quays are nicer and safer walk from town to the docklands area (although once a guy on a bike grabbed my phone from me as I was walking on the quays before heading to his base just in the middle of lovely SOBO).

dubrov

I used to rent in "SOBO" about 10 years ago.
It was great being so close to town but was definitely rougher than closer to town or Grand Canal on the other side.
There was a Spar(I think) there and the security guard was tormented by kids.

Maybe things have changed since then but I doubt it

The_Conductor

VonLuck wrote: »

But it's in the SOBO district! http://www.sobo.ie/location/

Sobo? What the hell is that?
Sensationally Obsessive Barmy Orbit.......

Has to be either IRES REIT or Hibernian REIT........

What a load of bollox- funny thing is- there are people out there who will rent/buy that cow manure.

Bob24

The_Conductor wrote: »

VonLuck wrote: »

But it's in the SOBO district! http://www.sobo.ie/location/

Sobo? What the hell is that?
Sensationally Obsessive Barmy Orbit.......

Has to be either IRES REIT or Hibernian REIT........

What a load of bollox- funny thing is- there are people out there who will rent/buy that cow manure.

SoBollocks maybe ;-) ... these marketing schemes are just ridiculous but I don't think people buy/rent there because they fall for it, more because they have no alternative.

jamesthepeach

Same thing happening now as in the naughties.
I know many people who would turn their noses up at a rough area. Now they are trying to convince themselves that a rough area is good so they can buy in it and not feel they live with scumbags they hate so much. Very same thing happened before.

No amount of marketing or blinkers is going to make that area less rough.

I always ask people one question when they start on about an area being much better than it was with a view to me saying oh yes you are right to buy there.
I say - would you want to bring your children up there?
That usually instigates some inner searching.

The_Conductor

Bob24 wrote: »

SoBollocks maybe ;-) ... these marketing schemes are just ridiculous but I don't think people buy/rent there because they fall for it, more because they have no alternative.

The older I get- the more cynical I become.
However cynical I've become- the company involved in defining the area as 'SOBO' (I'm not sure whether this is supposed to be capitalised, or not)- are even more cyncial than the more cynical of bystanders.

I'm all for 'gentrification' however- this is just bollox of the highest calibre- its not even gentrification- as its obviously trying to sell the area as for high calibre tenants, who don't have to mix with the riff-raff- other than perhaps as they are served their meals or drinks in local establishments..........

Yes- we need some high profile areas and reasonable housing if we're to encourage Brexit financial business over here- however, this is just taking the piss.

SOBO - So obviously bollox obstentation.

The_Conductor

jamesthepeach wrote: »

I say - would you want to bring your children up there? That usually instigates some inner searching.

Not in a million years- and I do have two young children- I wouldn't it fair on them, or safe.

quadrifoglio verde

I'm guessing the SOBO marketing team have never been in the windjammer :pac:

I'd happily live in the area, but I'd want my head examined to pay nearly 600K for a two bedroom apartment

jamesthepeach

I was keeping an eye on the few one bed apartments for sale in Dublin and they all seem to have disappeared off daft in the last few days.
Is the market sweeping up the lower end properties now?
It wasn't long ago you couldn't sell anything in The commuter counties. Now you can't get anything. The market is moving to the undesirables of last year now.

Sierra Oscar

<quote from banned poster snipped>

We aren't really seeing that though from a buy-to-let investment point of view. The number of small landlords is actually on the decline as people are fleeing the market.

Sure we're seeing a lot of people, especially first time buyers, chasing a small number of available properties. However I don't think it's comparable (yet) to the Celtic Tiger where you had every Tom, Dick and Harry looking to get into the buy-to-let market. People are looking to buy homes and that will always remain the case, there aren't as many people purchasing investment properties.

Bob24

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

We aren't really seeing that though from a buy-to-let investment point of view though. The number of small landlords is actually on the decline as people are fleeing the market.

Sure we're seeing a lot of people, especially first time buyers, chasing a small number of available properties. However I don't think it's comparable (yet) to the Celtic Tiger where you had every Tom, Dick and Harry looking to get into the buy-to-let market.

Yes, I would say the with the Celtic Tiger bubble prices were increasing because people were purchasing properties they didn't need, whereas currently prices are increasing because people are not able to purchase the properties they need.

Still a problem though ... as pushing people into excessive debt through organised shortages in order to match the price of a past bubble doesn't seem sensible to me.

Sierra Oscar

Bob24 wrote: »

Still a problem though ... as pushing people into excessive debt through organised shortages in order to match the price of a past bubble doesn't seem sensible to me.

Yes it's a massive problem, but the Central Bank rules are currently preventing people from getting into excessive debt.

The fact of the matter is that the people paying exorbitant prices for property at the moment can afford to do so. It's just that the average person is being priced out of the market, but that doesn't necessarily mean everyone who is buying property is mounting crippling debt on top of themselves.

I don't think it has dawned on a lot of people yet that they simply will never own their own homes if the current situation persists. There will always be people who are willing and can afford to pay prices for property which the rest of us find exorbitant - and in the process they are pricing the rest of us out of the market.

This problem will persist until the supply issue is sorted.

Cuddlesworth

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Yes it's a massive problem, but the Central Bank rules are currently preventing people from getting into excessive debt.

The fact of the matter is that the people paying exorbitant prices for property at the moment can afford to do so. It's just that the average person is being priced out of the market, but that doesn't necessarily mean everyone who is buying property is mounting crippling debt on top of themselves.

I don't think it has dawned on a lot of people yet that they simply will never own their own homes if the current situation persists. There will always be people who are willing and can afford to pay prices for property which the rest of us find exorbitant - and in the process they are pricing the rest of us out of the market.

This problem will persist until the supply issue is sorted.

The banks are doing everything in their power to "help" people out and get around the CB restrictions. My fried recently purchased and was offered 6 months moratorium on payments. Which is handy for him to help pay back the deposit he obviously borrowed.

ThisRegard

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

The banks are doing everything in their power to "help" people out and get around the CB restrictions. My fried recently purchased and was offered 6 months moratorium on payments. Which is handy for him to help pay back the deposit he obviously borrowed.

All that does is either increase his subsequent payments, or lengthen his mortgage period. It's not really helping people out financially.

Glen_Quagmire

Cuddlesworth wrote:

The banks are doing everything in their power to "help" people out and get around the CB restrictions. My fried recently purchased and was offered 6 months moratorium on payments. Which is handy for him to help pay back the deposit he obviously borrowed.

What bank was that with?

B00MSTICK

Glen_Quagmire wrote:

What bank was that with?

AIB I guess - think they are the only ones doing it?

I'd prefer the 2-3% cashback offered by some of the other lenders but I guess if you are really skint and the repayments are high then the 6 months might be "better"