Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

Junkyard Tom

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Not harmonising them so as to track EU laws in the longer term or for new ones. That would be utterly bonkers

No it would be utterly practical. If widgets produced and sold in the EU have to meet certain regulations then it's very much in Britain's interests to make sure its widgets for export to the EU meet precisely the same regulatory standards.

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

If you value having control, then its worth while. And the British have decided that it is ... reclaiming that democratically is a great freedom and power to have.

In a globalised world Britain is but a ship on the sea - it can't control the tides or weather.

catbear

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

R P McMurphy wrote: »

That is exactly what the end result will be. A lose-lose situation

No. A win-lose situation, with the win greater than than the lose. The win being taking back control, and the lose being an economic cost. But overall, in the eyes of the British, a net win. It depends what you are in into. If you value having control, then its worth while. And the British have decided that it is.

Outsiders, only looking at the economic angle, are missing this aspect completely and think the British have gone loopy. But they havent. It is in accordance with British values, and reclaiming that democratically is a great freedom and power to have.

They never lost control, they just can't compromise in a world made up of compromise. They're as sovereign as Walloon.

maryishere

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

In a globalised world Britain is but a ship on the sea - it can't control the tides or weather.

At least it will be able to steer the ship. Pity the poor 27 EU countries who cannot between them even do a trade deal with Canada - too many cooks in the kitchen.
No wonder the UK has less than half the EU unemployment rate., and better growth.

The Rape of Lucretia

catbear wrote: »

They never lost control, they just can't compromise in a world made up of compromise. They're as sovereign as Walloon.

Well, of course they did lose control. It had advantages to do so in some respects, but disadvantages too. Having 450 million people who arent British have a say in laws that apply in Britain is most certainly loosing some control. The UK has decided the upside to that was not worth the exchange, and so has decided to take back that control and have 60 million Britons control British law.

FrancieBrady

catbear wrote: »

They never lost control, they just can't compromise in a world made up of compromise. They're as sovereign as Walloon.

The 'control' speel is just a smokescreen for a vote delivered in a slabber of xenophobia and an exalted opinion of itself.

Junkyard Tom

maryishere wrote: »

No wonder the UK has less than half the EU unemployment rate

Britain is in the EU so if you're going to single out its figures then allow me to compare them with those of Germany.

Budget/Revenues
Germany's $1.53 trillion
United Kingdom $986.10 billion

Budget surplus
Germany 0.1% of GDP. Ranked 35th
UK -8.2% of GDP. Ranked 163th.

Exports
Germany $1.46 trillion. Ranked 3rd. 3 times more than United Kingdom
UK $473.00 billion. Ranked 10th.

Exports per capita
Germany $17,828.83 Ranked 16th. 2 times more than United Kingdom
UK $7,480.92. Ranked 41st.

Public Debt
Germany 81% of GDP Ranked 27th.
UK 88.7% of GDP Ranked 19th. 10% more than Germany

Unemployment rate
Germany 5.5%
UK 8%

nationmaster.com

Capt'n Midnight

solodeogloria wrote: »

The UK will always be in Europe. It won't be in the European Union. Some people have the notion that Brexit might not happen, but it will and it has to. Brexit it simply about bringing about the democratic will of the British people.
...
Ireland's challenge is to keep corporate America and the European Union happy at the same time.

I think they won't be able to do that.

Anyone who has looked at the British Media will notice that the effect on Ireland of Brexit is barely mentioned. So we can expect no favours from that direction, as our history has shown over and over again.

Even though they are a major trading partner and we have a Veto we are all but ignored. We are probably the country that needs the UK in the EU most. However, we are the also the country that would loose most if the UK can have it's cake and eat it

For us the worst case is where the UK gets what it wants and is allowed sell services into the EU and undercut the tax rates, and undercut wages by devaluing the pound and ignoring EU workers rights.
We just can't let that happen.


Our best option is to keep the UK in the EU by threatening to veto any deal. Status quo, removes any uncertainty.

Our next best option is to block UK Passporting of services at the very least so that we can get that business ourselves in compensation. The more we Veto the more attractive we are to US corporations.


At present we can move in the free travel area. Any changes to that and the UK will need to put up a hard border around the North. Ignoring the security and social aspects that sort of stuff costs big money. And a hard border is something no Republican politician can ignore , no matter which side they fought on in the civil war.


What's very interesting in all this is that there is almost no support for Ireland leaving the EU. Something the UK must take into account.

If NI were to join again, how much would the EU contribute to such a disadvantaged area ?



The UK must be made aware of our veto and that
'England's difficulty is Ireland's opportunity'

tomwaterford

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Well, of course they did lose control. It had advantages to do so in some respects, but disadvantages too. Having 450 million people who arent British have a say in laws that apply in Britain is most certainly loosing some control. The UK has decided the upside to that was not worth the exchange, and so has decided to take back that control and have 60 million Britons control British law.

So you think the eu won't force them to meet eu standards on goods exported Into the eu and they have no say in meeting those standreds



Unless your suggesting their going to not trade with the eu Into the future :pac:

Capt'n Midnight

maryishere wrote: »

At least it will be able to steer the ship. Pity the poor 27 EU countries who cannot between them even do a trade deal with Canada - too many cooks in the kitchen.
No wonder the UK has less than half the EU unemployment rate., and better growth.

So you are in favour of a hard Brexit ?

Good luck getting any trade deal better than WTO tariffs before 2025.
Good luck preventing the Chinese dumping surplus steel or widgets.
Good luck with the special relationship with the US. The rest of us in the EU will watch and see the UK version of TTIP works out.

Yes you might think "British Beef" is the best in the world. But the devastation of the national herd because of foot and mouth is still remembered. There's also the horsemeat scandal. Without the EU assurance of quality it's going to be harder to export that stuff.

Anita Blow

maryishere wrote: »

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

In a globalised world Britain is but a ship on the sea - it can't control the tides or weather.

At least it will be able to steer the ship. Pity the poor 27 EU countries who cannot between them even do a trade deal with Canada - too many cooks in the kitchen.
No wonder the UK has less than half the EU unemployment rate., and better growth.

Why do you keep parroting the unemployment rate as the sole measure of economic success? Real income is 7% less than 2008 levels in the UK. Wage growth is at 2% and likely to fall in the short term as businesses will not be handing out any increased wages until Brexit is over. Inflation has increased significantly (since the vote inflation on clothes has hit 5%) and overall the BoE has revised its estimates for inflation up to 3% next year which is a full percent above their target. Once inflation outpaces wage growth of 2% (or less given its set to fall this year), people's incomes will have actually fallen further following Brexit.
Additionally, the UK government stopped index-linking their social welfare payments so the poorest will be hardest hit by all of this.
If you're looking for more economic indicators- the UK's corporate tax take for September has collapsed. It's down 5% from the year prior . VAT receipts are also down for September. Together they've pushed the UK's deficit even higher and it's estimated to overshoot its 55 billion deficit target by 17 billion this year.

Junkyard Tom

Anita Blow wrote: »

Why do you keep parroting the unemployment rate as the sole measure of economic success?

I know, it's ridiculous. Slaves had a 100% employment rate and never missed a day at work.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-KUbflnMEs

maryishere

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Yes you might think "British Beef" is the best in the world.

naw Irish beef is;) Preferably washed down with a nice glass of red non-European wine.;)

Pity it is not as cheap as Argentinian beef.

maryishere

Anita Blow wrote: »

Why do you keep parroting the unemployment rate as the sole measure of economic success?

I never said it was the SOLE measure of economic success.

You do realise unemployment is very high in the EU as a whole : it is literally not working? You unemployment is close to 50% in some countries.

tomwaterford

maryishere wrote: »

I never said it was the SOLE measure of economic success.

You do realise unemployment is very high in the EU as a whole : it is literally not working? You unemployment is close to 50% in some countries.

And Britain left because people on the dole in Europe :rolleyes:

FrancieBrady

Anita Blow wrote:

additionally, the UK government stopped index-linking their social welfare payments so the poorest will be hardest hit by all of this.

Well, as Mary might chuff, 'you have to be cruel to be kind'

Junkyard Tom

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well, as Mary might chuff, 'you have to be cruel to be kind'

A man once told me 'you have to fight fire with fire' which is why he was thrown out of the Fire Brigade.

maryishere

Anita Blow wrote: »

. Once inflation outpaces wage growth of 2% (or less given its set to fall this year), people's incomes will have actually fallen further following Brexit.

once it does, maybe it will, but currency fluctuations are nothing new. Many UK businesses are thriving because of the exchange rate. Once the UK government is not paying tens of billions to poor EU countries in handouts, it can invest that money in its own economy.

tomwaterford

maryishere wrote: »

once it does, maybe it will, but currency fluctuations are nothing new. Many UK businesses are thriving because of the exchange rate. Once the UK government is not paying tens of billions to poor EU countries in handouts, it can invest that money in its own economy.

Surly if they are reducing value of the pound to increase exports
Rising costs of imports will drive up inflation???....unless they put up wages then people will be less well off??




Or am I missing something here???
All this extra billions will have to be spent on income support$???

maryishere

Sterling fluctuated and hit current levels before, no big drama.

I would be more concerned what will happen the Euro, now one of the biggest contributors to the EU will be leaving, and Germany on its own will not be able to deal with the debt crises of the PIGS countries etc.

Junkyard Tom

maryishere wrote: »

Sterling fluctuated and hit current levels before, no big drama.

I would be more concerned what will happen the Euro, now one of the biggest contributors to the EU will be leaving, and Germany on its own will not be able to deal with the debt crises of the PIGS countries etc.

Why do you, as an Irish person, relentlessly exalt all things British while relentlessly denigrating all things Irish? What happened?

maryishere

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Why do you, as an Irish person, relentlessly exalt all things British while relentlessly denigrating all things Irish? What happened?

There you go again, getting your facts wrong yet again. Fact: I do not "relentlessly exalt all things British while relentlessly denigrating all things Irish". Only 9 posts ago on this very thread I corrected another poster who brought up the subject of the quality of British beef, and I wrote that Irish beef is the best in the world.

Junkyard Tom

maryishere wrote: »

I do not "relentlessly exalt all things British while relentlessly denigrating all things Irish".

Yes you do, your reputation for the above precedes you. One swallow a summer does not make.

maryishere

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Yes you do, .

You said "all". I point out just one example from an hour ago and you are still adamant "yes you do", says you. You are incorrect yet again. How is it you get your facts wrong? We are talking about Brexit. If you have a point to make, find a fact I got wrong, instead of attacking me personally.

maryishere

maryishere wrote: »

Sterling fluctuated and hit current levels before, no big drama.

I would be more concerned what will happen the Euro, now one of the biggest contributors to the EU will be leaving, and Germany on its own will not be able to deal with the debt crises of the PIGS countries etc.

'PIGS' eh? So you reckon Ireland isn't going to do well?

maryishere

Deleted User wrote: »

'PIGS' eh? So you reckon Ireland isn't going to do well?

:rolleyes:
That is a well known abbreviation in Europe referring to Portugal,Italy, Greece and Spain ( p.i.g.s - get it ? ) because of their massive debt problems.

RDM_83 again

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Why do you, as an Irish person, relentlessly exalt all things British while relentlessly denigrating all things Irish? What happened?

I'm getting screwed at the minute by the drop in Sterling but some of the apocalyptic statements about the currency falls are just pure hyperbole. Go onto XE.com and look at a graph of sterling, plenty of peaks and troughs going on, for example in 2011 and 2010 it was similar. Even simply paying attention to the way the indo writes about cross border shoppers tells you the years currency has dropped.

Junkyard Tom

maryishere wrote: »

You said "all". I point out just one example from an hour ago and you are still adamant "yes you do", says you. You are incorrect yet again. How is it you get your facts wrong? We are talking about Brexit. If you have a point to make, find a fact I got wrong, instead of attacking me personally.

If I was so inclined I'm sure I could easily put together a lengthy list of your posts proving what I wrote is true. I couldn't be bothered though, and it would be pointless, because your record speaks for itself. I'm not attacking you personally I'm questioning your views.

solodeogloria

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Our best option is to keep the UK in the EU by threatening to veto any deal. Status quo, removes any uncertainty.

Good morning!

This isn't how Article 50 works. Vetoing a deal doesn't mean the UK stays in the EU. It means that the UK leaves the EU without a trading relationship and falls back onto WTO regulations. Which would be very very bad for Ireland. It means about 5% on goods exported to the UK with an already weak pound. Irish goods will become less attractive to British consumers and it will hurt Ireland's economy.

Of course then Britain could do all kinds of things to stimulate the economy like dropping corporate tax and unilaterally dropping tariffs for countries that are willing to do the same. At cost in the short term yes. But that would also be bad for the EU.

So yes a veto doesn't keep the UK in the EU. What it does do is say "No deal" and causes the UK to crash out with no deal.

Ireland's best interest is to help the UK get the best deal.

Also passporting into the EU would be painful to lose for the City but it's a tiny proportion of trading activity. London has infrastructure built up since the 80s that other European cities don't have.

With thanks,
solodeogloria

LordSutch

Chris Grayling 'convinced' of tariff-free trade deal after Brexit.

http://news.sky.com/story/chris-grayling-convinced-of-tariff-free-trade-deal-after-brexit-10629341

PM says Brexit will require 'give and take' ...

FrancieBrady

LordSutch wrote: »

Chris Grayling 'convinced' of tariff-free trade deal after Brexit.

http://news.sky.com/story/chris-grayling-convinced-of-tariff-free-trade-deal-after-brexit-10629341

A Brexiter remains convinced by a feeling in his water.