Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

First Up

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

In theory Ireland and Scotland could unite. That would get them into the EU. Then we could split later via a referendum and Scotland would be an independent country in the EU.

Ireland and Scotland uniting is pretty far fetched. Irish unification is hard enough to envisage.

Scotland ceceding is a possibilty but there's too many moving parts to hazard a guess beyond that.

The next few years will center on the economics of it. The political ramifications will come later.

Fratton Fred

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That is what will pull the UK apart. The more people realise that they are minions ruled by London, that it is really not about 'unity' at all the more easy it will be for Sturgeon to convince the necessary majority.
They came very close last time. Who will believe the last minute 'we love your really' appeals again?

I think if May insists on going ahead with brexit then another referendum in Scotland will be part of the price and control will spin out of London's hands after that, thus completing the breakup of the UK, which has been in progress for some time now.

So Scotland will have no functioning currency and an economy in tatters, but at least they would take back control?

First Up

Junkyard Tom wrote:

Yes. The UK intend to do a great copy-and-paste of EU laws/regulations into UK laws/regulations so that they won't face miles of trucks queueing for inspections of UK exports to the EU.

So they would keep the red tape and get border controls thrown in as well.

Lovely way to take back control.

A Dub in Glasgo

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So Scotland will have no functioning currency and an economy in tatters, but at least they would take back control?

They would have the £ and the economy would be no worse than Brexit economy

Fratton Fred

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

They would have the £ and the economy would be no worse than Brexit economy

Despite the experts saying otherwise, or does project fear only apply to Brexiters?

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

So Scotland will have no functioning currency and an economy in tatters, but at least they would take back control?

Taking back control isn't all its cracked up to be.

A Dub in Glasgo

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Despite the experts saying otherwise

What experts?

or does project fear only apply to Brexiters?

Project Fear is against Scotland

First Up

A Dub in Glasgo wrote:

They would have the £ and the economy would be no worse than Brexit economy

The Euro more likely. The economy would suffer but probably no more than if still tied to the floundering dis-UK.

catbear

I'm starting to think that Brexit could be as damaging economically for the UK as the 1801 act of union was for Dublin; woosh and the money leaves...........

Subcomandante Marcos

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Despite the experts saying otherwise, or does project fear only apply to Brexiters?

There is no way to stop Scotland using the £. Zero. None.

Junkyard Tom

First Up wrote: »

Lovely way to take back control.

"because of the stupidity of the average man, he follows not reason, but faith, and the naive faith requires necessary illusion and emotionally potent oversimplifications" :Reinhold Niebuhr

'Take back control'
'Make Britain Great again'
'No more rules from Europe'
'Brexit means Brexit'

Emotionally potent oversimplifications.

First Up

Subcomandante Marcos wrote:

There is no way to stop Scotland using the £. Zero. None.

But they might be better off in the Euro with a direct line to the ECB - especially if they are making a major grab for London's financial sector.

Fratton Fred

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Project Fear is against Scotland

Project fear is what Brexiters called the remain campaign. Turns out project fear was right.

tomwaterford

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Project fear is what Brexiters called the remain campaign. Turns out project fear was right.

The remain was right?

Fratton Fred

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

There is no way to stop Scotland using the £. Zero. None.

And they would then be tied to fiscal policy set in London. Not exactly independence.

Fratton Fred

tomwaterford wrote: »

The remain was right?

I believe so.

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

But they might be better off in the Euro with a direct line to the ECB - especially if they are making a major grab for London's financial sector.

How can Scotland join the Euro? It would take some major negotiations for a country without its own currency and with unknown fiscal policies to meet the criteria.

marienbad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

How can Scotland join the Euro? It would take some major negotiations for a country without its own currency and with unknown fiscal policies to meet the criteria.

On top of all that I can't see the EU facilitating any breakup of the UK - just to big a can of worms to open .

marienbad

marienbad wrote: »

On top of all that I can't see the EU facilitating any breakup of the UK - just to big a can of worms to open .

After Brexit has happened they'll not have any influence at all, in the meantime, Catalan separatists amongst others are trying to separate within the EU but are not having much luck.

A Dub in Glasgo

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Project fear is what Brexiters called the remain campaign. Turns out project fear was right.

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/project-fear-how-an-unlikely-alliance-left-a-kingdom-united-but-a-country-divided

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/11/project-fear-started-as-a-silly-private-joke-now-it-wont-go-away

A Dub in Glasgo

Fratton Fred wrote: »

And they would then be tied to fiscal policy set in London. Not exactly independence.

So staying in the UK and tied to fiscal policy set in London is good and leaving the UK and tied to fiscal policy set in London is bad?

alias no.9

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

We are getting some of our ducks in a row by arguing the precedent of East Germany means we could accommodate the North if there is reunification.


In theory Ireland and Scotland could unite. That would get them into the EU. Then we could split later via a referendum and Scotland would be an independent country in the EU.

That is all unnecessary. The EU were very clear in advance of the last Scottish independence referendum that Scottish departure from the UK meant departure from the EU. They have in fact defined a mechanism for England and Wales to quit the European Union by leaving the UK without ever triggering Article 50. That would in turn leave the United Kingdom of Scotland and Northern Ireland as a remaining member of the EU.

Fratton Fred

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

So staying in the UK and tied to fiscal policy set in London is good and leaving the UK and tied to fiscal policy set in London is bad?

Scotland currently has a say in that fiscal policy.

Fratton Fred

alias no.9 wrote: »

That is all unnecessary. The EU were very clear in advance of the last Scottish independence referendum that Scottish departure from the UK meant departure from the EU. They have in fact defined a mechanism for England and Wales to quit the European Union by leaving the UK without ever triggering Article 50. That would in turn leave the United Kingdom of Scotland and Northern Ireland as a remaining member of the EU.

There is no mechanism (attractive though it may be) for England to leave the UK though.

alias no.9

Fratton Fred wrote: »

There is no mechanism (attractive though it may be) for England to leave the UK though.

Whats stopping them?

Subcomandante Marcos

Fratton Fred wrote: »

And they would then be tied to fiscal policy set in London. Not exactly independence.

The only thing they'd be tied to is the interest rate, which is set by the BoE, not the UK government.

Capt'n Midnight

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So Scotland will have no functioning currency and an economy in tatters, but at least they would take back control?

That's Brexit in a nutshell.


Scotland would benefit from EU funds if they were below EU average.

And Scotland is an energy exporter to the UK.

Also an independent Scotland could cut back a bit on this or even make a few quid renting naval and air bases.
In 2017, defence spending, including foreign aid, is budgeted at £45.6 billion.

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

There is no way to stop Scotland using the £. Zero. None.

There are ways, but at the very worst Scotland could peg any new currency to Sterling.

Fratton Fred

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

That's Brexit in a nutshell.


Scotland would benefit from EU funds if they were below EU average.

And Scotland is an energy exporter to the UK.

Also an independent Scotland could cut back a bit on this or even make a few quid renting naval and air bases.
In 2017, defence spending, including foreign aid, is budgeted at £45.6 billion.

There are ways, but at the very worst Scotland could peg any new currency to Sterling.

Renting air and naval bases to who? Also, who would replace all the orders for ships Scotland is benefiting from?

Independence based on eu hand outs? That's confidence in your own ability to stand on your own two feet right there.

"We want independence and we want Germany to pay for it".

Fratton Fred

alias no.9 wrote: »

Whats stopping them?

No English parliament to demand a referendum for starters.

Junkyard Tom

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

There are ways, but at the very worst Scotland could peg any new currency to Sterling.

I think that's the absolute best thing they could do while transitioning to their own currency. The Euro has been a disaster for Greece - if it had had its own currency it could have made its exports, labour force, and inward tourism cheaper while making German and French cars more expensive.

Ireland should be putting in place a very strong 'plan B' for its own economic security and possible bargaining chip if we were ever expected to underwrite the losses of foreign banks again.